BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Investor Presentation (January 2013)
36 slides from BP's investor presentation, January 2013
Slide 1: BP Energy Outlook 2030
BP Energy Outlook 2030
Slide 2: Contents
Contents Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 3: Introduction
Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 4: Population, income and energy growth
Population, income and energy growth Population GDP Primary energy Billion Trillion $2011 PPP Billion toe 8 100 12 OECD OECD OECD Non-OECD Non-OECD non-OECD 6 75 9 4 50 6 2 25 3 0 0 0 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 5: Industrialisation drives energy growth
Industrialisation drives energy growth By region By primary use By fuel Billion toe Billion toe Billion toe 18 18 18 Renew.* 15 15 15 Hydro Nuclear 12 12 Power 12 generation Coal 9 Non-OECD Non-OECD 9 9 Coal 6 6 Industry 6 Gas Gas 3 OECD 3 Other 3 OECD Transport OilOil 0 0 0 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010
Slide 6: The power sector leads primary energy growth
The power sector leads primary energy growth Growth by sector and region, Growth by sector and fuel, 2011-2030 2011-2030 Billion toe Billion toe 3 3 Hydro RoW Nuclear 2 2 Renew. Middle East 1 1 Electricity Gas China & 0 0 Biofuels India Transport Other Power Industry Transport Other Power Industry O
Slide 7: Emerging economies dominate energy production
Emerging economies dominate energy production Billion toe Billion toe 18 18 FSU 15 15 S&C America 12 12 N. America 9 9 Middle East Non-OECD 6 Non-OECD 6 Europe Asia Pacific 3 OECD 3 OECD Africa 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 8: Fuel shares and energy prices
Fuel shares and energy prices Shares of world primary energy Energy prices $2011/boe 50% 120 Oil - Brent Oil 100 Gas - basket 40% Coal Coal - basket 80 30% 60 20% Gas 40 10% Hydro 20 Nuclear Renewables* 0% 0 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 1965 1980 1995 2010 *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 201
Slide 9: Energy efficiency improvements
Energy efficiency improvements Energy intensity by region Energy and GDP Toe per thousand $2011 GDP (PPP) Billion toe Trillion $2011 (PPP) 0.5 50 200 US 0.4 China 40 150 0.3 30 100 0.2 20 GDP (RHS) World 50 0.1 10 EU* Energy 0.0 0 0 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030 *E
Slide 10: Energy supply growth
Energy supply growth Demand Supply Billion toe 17 2030 level Renew.* 16 Hydro Nuclear 15 14 Other 13 Shale Tight Other 12 2011 OECD Non- 2011 Oil Natural Coal Non- *Includes biofuels OECD gas fossil Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 11: Shale gas and tight oil: resources and production
Shale gas and tight oil: resources and production Current resources Production in 2030 Billion toe Billion toe 60 Gas 0.9 Oil 40 0.6 20 0.3 0 0.0 Asia Pacific Africa Asia Pacific Africa N. America Europe & Middle East N. America Europe & Middle East America America S. & C. S. & C. Eurasia Eurasia Re
Slide 12: US tight oil and shale gas: infrastructure requirements
US tight oil and shale gas: infrastructure requirements Onshore oil & gas rigs 2011 Oil wells drilled and output Thousands Thousands Mb/d 2.0 15 5 2012* 2011 1.5 2010 Output (RHS) 12 4 1.0 9 3 0.5 6 2 0.0 3 1 0 0 Bakken Canada Colombia *Annualised from 1Q-3Q data Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 13: Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel
Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 14: High oil prices are reducing oil's share of primary energy
High oil prices are reducing oil’s share of primary energy Oil share of energy and GDP Oil share in sector % of energy % of GDP 60% 10% 100% Oil as % of primary energy Oil cost as % of GDP (RHS) Power 8% 75% Other 40% 6% Industry 50% Transport 4% 20% 25% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1965 1978 1991 2004 2017 2030 196
Slide 15: Global transport demand
Global transport demand Transport demand by fuel Fuel economy of new cars Billion toe Litres per 100 km 3 12 EU Electricity US light vehicles 9 China 2 Gas Coal 6 Biofuels 1 Oil - road 3 Oil - non-road 0 0 1990 2010 2030 1995 2005 2015 2025 Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 16: Global supply growth and tight oil
Global supply growth and tight oil Liquids supply by type Tight oil output Mb/d Mb/d 105 45% 10 % of total 10% OPEC share (RHS) China (RHS) 90 OPEC NGLs Russia 8 S. America 8% 75 OPEC crude N. America 60 Biofuels 6 6% 45 Oil sands 4 4% 30 Tight oil 2 NGLs 2% 15 Other non-OPEC 0 30% 0 0% 1990 2000 20
Slide 17: Role of the Americas
Role of the Americas Supply growth by decade Americas surpass Middle East Mb/d Mb/d 18 Americas Europe 35 FSU Middle East Americas 15 Africa Asia Pacific Middle East 30 12 9 25 6 3 20 0 -3 15 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 18: Global liquids balance
Global liquids balance Demand Supply Mb/d 105 NGLs 2030 level Other Iraq 100 OPEC-11 S&C Am. NGLs 95 Mid East Tight India oil 90 Biofuels China 85 Oil sands 80 2011 OECD Non- 2011 Non- Non- OPEC declines OECD OPEC OPEC growth growth declines growth Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 19: Unconventional oil and the call on OPEC
Unconventional oil and the call on OPEC Unconventionals share of net Call on OPEC & spare capacity global supply growth Mb/d Mb/d 100% 9 Spare capacity 36 Biofuels Call on OPEC (RHS) Oil sands 75% Tight oil 6 33 50% 3 30 25% 0% 0 27 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 © B
Slide 20: Shale gas and global supply growth
Shale gas and global supply growth Gas production by type and region Shale gas production Bcf/d Bcf/d 500 Non-OECD other 80 RoW 18% Non-OECD shale China 400 OECD shale 60 Europe & Eurasia OECD other Canada & Mexico 12% 300 40 US 200 6% 20 % of total (RHS) 100 0 0 0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 200
Slide 21: Shale gas: regional growth
Shale gas: regional growth Sources of gas supply, by region Bcf/d N. America Bcf/d EU Bcf/d China 120 120 120 Net pipeline imports 100 100 100 Net LNG imports 80 Shale gas production 80 80 Other domestic production 60 60 60 40 40 40 20 20 20 0 0 0 -20 -20 -20 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010
Slide 22: Gas trade and market integration
Gas trade and market integration LNG exports LNG diversification Bcf/d 80 20% 10 Suppliers per importer 8 Customers per exporter 60 15% % of total 6 consumption 40 (RHS) 10% 4 20 5% 2 LNG 0 0% 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 23: Global gas balance
Global gas balance Demand Supply Bcf/d 500 450 Other 2030 level non-OECD OECD 400 China 350 Middle East Non-OECD Other OECD N. America 300 250 2011 OECD Non-OECD 2011 Non-shale Shale Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 24: Coal consumption
Coal consumption Coal demand by region Coal demand by sector Billion toe Billion toe 5 5 OilOther 4 4 China China Industry Industry China China China 3 3 China India India 2 India India 2 India India Other Non-OECD Other non-OECD Power Power 1 1 OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Slide 25: Non-fossil fuels
Non-fossil fuels OECD Non-OECD Billion toe Billion toe 2.0 2.0 Renewables Biofuels 1.5 1.5 Hydro Nuclear 1.0 1.0 Renewables in power 0.5 0.5 Biofuels 0.0 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 26: Growth of renewables in power
Growth of renewables in power Share of power generation Renewable power Growth 2011-30, and share of power % share % p.a. 20% 25% 15% Growth (RHS) Nuclear Share 2011 1970-2000 20% 12% 15% Share 2030 15% 9% 10% Non-OECD 10% 6% 5% Renewables 5% 3% 2000-2030 OECD 0% 0% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 OECD Other
Slide 27: Power generation and electricity use
Power generation and electricity use Electricity share of final consumption Shares of power output 50% 100% Oil 40% Other 80% Nuclear 60% Hydro 30% Industry Gas 20% 40% 20% Coal 10% Transport Renew. 0% 0% 1990 2010 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 28: Implications
Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 29: Oil and gas: reserves and production
Oil and gas: reserves and production FSU N. America Europe Middle East Asia Pacific Key: % share of global total 50% S. & C. America Africa 2011 reserves 2030 output 0% Net importers 2011 Net exporters 2011 Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 2013
Slide 30: Tight oil and shale gas uncertainties
Tight oil and shale gas uncertainties Range of tight oil forecasts Share of global supply Range of shale gas (excludes NGLs) growth forecasts Mb/d Bcf/d 10 75% Shale gas 120 Range Range BP Tight oil BP 100 8 50% 80 6 60 4 25% 40 2 20 0 0% 0 2010 2020 2030 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30 2010 2020 2030 Energ
Slide 31: Energy imbalances: import profiles
Energy imbalances: import profiles Energy imbalances Energy imbalances to GDP ratio Mtoe China EU US Toe per $Mln GDP PPP 300 60 China 0 40 US 20 EU -300 0 -600 -20 Oil -900 Gas -40 Coal -60 -1,200 -80 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 201
Slide 32: Energy imbalances: export profiles
Energy imbalances: export profiles Energy imbalances Energy imbalances to GDP ratio Saudi Arabia Africa Russia Mtoe Toe per $Mln GDP PPP 800 1200 Saudi Arabia Oil 1000 Russia 600 Gas Coal 800 Africa 400 600 200 400 200 0 0 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy
Slide 33: Energy and carbon emissions
Energy and carbon emissions CO2 emissions and primary energy Growth of CO2 emissions Billion tonnes CO2 Billion toe % p.a. 50 Emissions from 8% 18 1970-1990 energy use 40 15 6% 1990-2010 Primary energy (RHS) 12 2010-2030 30 4% 9 20 2% 6 Gas 10 0% 3 Oil 0 0 -2% 1970 1990 2010 2030 China EU US Energy
Slide 34: Conclusion
Conclusion % p.a. Economic growth needs 4% energy 3% Competition and innovation Income per are the key to meeting this 2% capita need − energy efficiency 1% Popul − new supplies ation 0% Energy security and climate Economic Efficiency New supply change remain challenges growth gains Energy Outlook 2
Slide 35: BP Energy Outlook 2030
BP Energy Outlook 2030
Slide 36: Data sources
Data sources Baker Hughes, Houston, Texas BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 2012 BP p.l.c., BP Energy Outlook 2030, London, United Kingdom, January 2012 Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvani