One Gas, Inc. · NYSE:OGS
One Gas — Jefferies 2016 Energy Conference
45 slides from One Gas's conference presentation, Nov 29, 2016
Slide 1: Jefferies 2016 Energy Conference
Houston, Texas | November 29, 2016 Jefferies 2016 Energy Conference
Slide 2: Curtis Dinan
Curtis Dinan Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer Page 2
Slide 3: Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-Looking Statements Statements contained in this presentation that include company expectations or predictions should be considered forward-looking statements that are covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. It is import
Slide 4: What We'll Cover
What We’ll Cover Highlights Competitive Strengths – 100% regulated natural gas utility focus – One of the largest publicly traded natural gas distributors Financial Overview – Maintain conservative financial posture – Capital investments result in rate base growth Regulatory Overview – Mechanisms an
Slide 5: Company Overview
Company Overview Key Statistics 72% market share • One of the largest publicly traded natural gas distribution companies 88% market share – 2.1 million customers • 43,400 miles of distribution and transmission pipeline 14% market share • Estimated 2016 average rate base: $3.0 billion* – 42% in Oklah
Slide 6: Competitive Strengths
Competitive Strengths Page 6
Slide 7: Competitive Strengths
Competitive Strengths Sustainable Business • 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility Focused business strategy • One of the largest publicly traded natural gas distributors • 2.1 million customers Significant scale • High percentage of residential customers and fixed charges • More than 70%
Slide 8: Significant Scale
Significant Scale High Percentage of Fixed Charges Kansas Oklahoma Texas Total Fixed Charges – Sales 55% 87% 72% 73% customers* Average Annual Heating 4,860 3,317 1,785 - Degree Days – Normal Weather Normalization 100% 100% 62% 89% Kansas Corporation Commission Oklahoma Corporation “Home Rule” with
Slide 9: Significant Scale
Significant Scale High Percentage of Residential Customers * * *Based on 2015 annual results Page 9
Slide 10: Proximity to Natural Gas Supply
Proximity to Natural Gas Supply Location Supports Sustainability Topeka • Close proximity to significant natural gas reserves – 75 active rigs in Oklahoma* – 268 active rigs in Texas* • Delivered natural gas costs are comprised primarily of: – Cost of the commodity – Transportation costs – Storage f
Slide 11: Natural Gas vs. Electricity
Natural Gas vs. Electricity 3-to-1 Average Advantage Continues in ONE Gas Territories Average retail price of Natural gas price equivalent ONE Gas delivered cost of Natural gas electricity / kWh (1) of electricity / Dth (1) natural gas / Dth (2) advantage ratio (3) Kansas 12.31¢ $36.08 $9.98 3.6x Ok
Slide 12: Financial Overview
Financial Overview Page 12
Slide 13: 2016 Guidance
2016 Guidance Updated August 1, 2016 • Net income: range of $135-$140 million Operating Income – Driven by lower operating expenses partially offset $267* by warmer than normal weather in the first half of $239 $216 $220 $225 2016, compared with original estimate $200 • EPS: range of $2.55 - $2.65 •
Slide 14: Well-defined Capital Investment Plan
Well-defined Capital Investment Plan Capital Spending Exceeds Depreciation $302 $305 $287 $294 $280 $15 $23 $27 $13 • Majority of capital expenditures for $243 $19 $5 $34 $3 $41 $62 $65 safety, reliability and efficiency $23 $37 $55 $7 $46 (in millions) – System integrity and replacements $31 – Effi
Slide 15: Capital Expenditures
Capital Expenditures By State Oklahoma Kansas Texas $136 $132 $133 $126 $123 $100 $90 $89 $90 $82 $82 $86 $81 $74 $75 $76 (in millions) $63 $65 $68 $68 $53 $57 $49 $52 $44 $48 $41 $42 $39 $41 $24 $27 $18 $20 $21 $16 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016G 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016G 2011 2012 2013 2014 20
Slide 16: 2016 Cash Flow
2016 Cash Flow Sources and Uses $379 $379 Short-term debt • Target dividend payout ratio of 55- and working $17 65% of net income capital changes • Capital expenditures primarily Cash flow from (in millions) Capital funded by cash flow from operations** expenditures operations $362 $305 • Dividend o
Slide 17: Five-year Financial Outlook
Five-year Financial Outlook Provided January 2016 • Expected average annual net income growth of 5-8% between 2015 and 2020 – Driven by capital investments and customer growth – Rate base expected to grow an average of approximately 5% per year between 2015-2020 • Expected average annual dividend gr
Slide 18: Investment Grade
Investment Grade Commitment to Investment-Grade Ratings • Strong liquidity position will support capital Capital Structure expenditure and working capital needs As of Sept. 30, 2016 – Stable operating cash flows – $700 million revolving credit facility – Commercial paper program Long-term debt • Str
Slide 19: Regulatory Overview
Regulatory Overview Page 19
Slide 20: Regulatory Mechanisms
Regulatory Mechanisms Overview • Oklahoma Natural Gas – Performance-based rate structure (PBR) with a targeted ROE band of 9-10 percent that provides for annual rate reviews between rate cases • Kansas Gas Service – Gas System Reliability Surcharge (GSRS) – for incremental safety-related and governm
Slide 21: Oklahoma Natural Gas Rate Case
Oklahoma Natural Gas Rate Case Approved January 6, 2016 Highlights * The initial common equity ratio will be 60.5 percent, unchanged from the original filed request. For each future PBRC filing, the Amount $29.995 million maximum allowed common equity ratio will decrease by 1 percent beginning with
Slide 22: Kansas Gas Service Rate Case
Kansas Gas Service Rate Case Settlement Agreement Reached Settlement Agreement Summary* Increase in base rates $15.5 million total increase, $8.1 million net increase (already recovering $7.4 million through GSRS) Operating income impact Approximately $9.1 million in 2017 Other • Filed May 2, 2016 •
Slide 23: Texas Gas Service
Texas Gas Service Central Texas Service Area – Approved November 15, 2016 Highlights Increase in base rates $6.8 million; $3.4 million impact to operating income Return on equity 9.5% Common equity ratio 60.1% Other • Approved consolidation of the South Texas service area with the Central Texas serv
Slide 24: Texas Gas Service
Texas Gas Service West Texas Service Area Settlement Agreement Summary Increase in base rates $8.8 million; $7.6 million impact to operating income Return on equity 9.5% Common equity ratio 60.1% Other • September 2016: Approved consolidation of the El Paso, Dell City and Permian service areas into
Slide 25: Texas Gas Service
Texas Gas Service Other Recent Regulatory Activity Jurisdiction Filing Highlights Status Increase in Rates Effective Base Rates Gulf Coast • Rate case to adjust base rates Approved $2.3 million May 2016 • Consolidate Galveston and South Jefferson County service areas North Texas • Annual COSA filing
Slide 26: Projected Rate Base
Projected Rate Base Capital Investment Drives Rate Base Growth 2016 Estimated Rate Base • Projected rate base consists of: Total: $3.0 billion* + Property, plant and equipment + Working capital 26% + Other rate base items +/– 42% – Accumulated deferred income taxes – Accumulated depreciation 32% Okl
Slide 27: Opportunity to Narrow the Gap
Opportunity to Narrow the Gap Return on Equity • Goal: Minimize the gap between allowed and 8.0% 7.6% 7.4% 7.6% actual returns – 2016 ROE estimate: 7.6% – 2015 ROE achieved: 7.4% – 2014 ROE achieved: 7.6% – 2013 ROE achieved: 8.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016E Page 27
Slide 28: Key Takeaways
Key Takeaways Focused Strategy • Well-defined capital investment plan with 70% targeted toward system integrity – Rate base expected to grow an average of 5% per year between 2015 -2020 • Increased focus on maintaining or lowering operating expenses to sustainable levels • Minimize gap between actua
Slide 29: Questions
Questions Page 29
Slide 30: Appendix
Appendix Page 30
Slide 31: Regulatory Constructs
Regulatory Constructs By State Mechanism Oklahoma Kansas Texas* Performance-based rates X Capital investments; safety-related riders X** X X Weather normalization X X X Purchased Gas Adjustment/Cost of Gas riders X X X Energy efficiency/conservation programs X X Pension and Other Post-Retirement Ben
Slide 32: Regulatory Filing Timeline
Regulatory Filing Timeline Oklahoma & Kansas Filed general rate case application in July 2015, General rate case application filing in June 2021, new rates approved and effective January 2016 with new rates effective early 2022, if applicable 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ONG Performance-b
Slide 33: Regulatory Information
Regulatory Information By State as of November 2016 - Authorized Rate Base Rate Base per Authorized Authorized (in millions) Customer Rate of Return on Return Equity Oklahoma Natural Gas¹ $1,201 $1,396 7.31% 9-10% Kansas Gas Service² $826 $1,301 N/A N/A Texas Gas Service¹ $760 $1,177 7.5% 9.6% ¹ The
Slide 34: Authorized Rate Base
Authorized Rate Base Historical by State at Year End Oklahoma¹ Kansas² Texas¹ CAGR 5.4% CAGR 2.6% CAGR 17.2% $938 $979 $896 $843 $826 $793 $781 $744 $764 $770 $639 (in millions) $542 $504 $416 $339 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ¹ Rate bases presented in t
Slide 35: Customer and Asset Mix
Customer and Asset Mix Key Statistics as of Dec. 31, 2015 Kansas Gas Service Oklahoma Natural Gas Texas Gas Service Total Average Number of Customers 634,977 860,551 644,408 2,139,936 Average Number of Employees 1,000 1,200 800 3,400* Distribution – Miles 12,000 18,300 10,100 40,400 Transmission – M
Slide 36: Safety and Environment
Safety and Environment Operating Safely and Environmentally Responsibly • Ongoing effort to replace aging assets – Replaced approximately 425 miles of distribution and transmission facilities in 2015 – Replaced approximately 22 miles of cast iron pipe in 2015 – Remaining 70 miles of cast iron pipe e
Slide 37: Customer Growth
Customer Growth Projected 2016 Customer Growth ~ 0.25% to 0.75% Average Customer Count 2,140 2,127 2,114 2,101 (in thousands) 2,090 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Page 37
Slide 38: Diverse Employment Mix
Diverse Employment Mix State Employment by Sector* Kansas Oklahoma Texas Construction Mining ¹ Mining ¹ Mining ¹ Construction Other Services 4% 1% 3% 2% 5% 5% Other Services Financial Construction 5% Activities 6% Other Services Trade, 5% Trade, Financial Other Services Financial 6% Services Transpo
Slide 39: Service Territory Population Growth
Service Territory Population Growth 1.38% CAGR ONE Gas Major Metro U.S. Census County Population 1.2 M Travis County, TX 1.1 M 1M 900,000 El Paso County, TX 800,000 Oklahoma County, OK 700,000 Tulsa County, OK 600,000 Johnson County, KS 500,000 Sedwick County, KS 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 19
Slide 40: Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Current Environment CNG Volume • Currently operate 26 fueling stations Dth – in millions accessible to the public, 4 private stations 129 stations supplied • Currently transporting supply to 64 retail 115 stations supplied and 46 private CNG stations • Rebate program in
Slide 41: Benefits of CNG
Benefits of CNG Use of CNG Increases Load • One vehicle is equivalent to one home • One pickup truck is equivalent to two homes • One refuse truck is equivalent to 13 homes • One transit bus is equivalent to 24 homes • Incremental margins from CNG demand could mitigate residential rate increases, en
Slide 42: Cost of Gas
Cost of Gas Passed Through to Customers • Actual costs of the commodity, transportation and storage of natural gas are passed through to customers without markup – Natural gas used in operations is recovered in “Purchased Gas” or “Cost of Gas” riders • Cost of Gas component of bad debts and hedging
Slide 43: Cash Flow From Operations
Cash Flow From Operations Before Changes In Working Capital* Updated Previous (Millions of dollars) 2016 2016 Change Guidance Guidance Net Income $ 137 $ 132 $ 5 Depreciation and amortization 142 142 – Deferred taxes 67 77 (10) Other 16 13 3 Cash flow from operations before changes in working capita
Slide 44: Non-GAAP Information
Non-GAAP Information ONE Gas has disclosed in this presentation cash flow from operations before changes in working capital, which is a non-GAAP financial measure. Cash flow from operations before changes in working capital is used as a measure of the company's financial performance. Cash flow from
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