Yara International Asa · OSL:YAR

Yara International Asa — Carnegie lunch presentation February 2023

12 slides from Yara International Asa's conference presentation, Feb 27, 2023

  1. Slide 1: Market Update February 2023

    Knowledge grows Market Update February 2023

  2. Slide 2: Urea prices - volatile

    Urea prices - volatile 1,200 1,000 800 USD/ton 600 400 200 0 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Urea fob Egypt(Europe) Urea inland proxy China

  3. Slide 3: Apparent urea consumption ex. China – limited by supply

    Apparent urea consumption ex. China – limited by supply 150 Price fob Arab Gulf: 665 520 140 250 ? ? 130 million tons urea 120 110 100 90 80 The trend growth rate from 2011-2021 is 2.3%/year 70 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: IFA

  4. Slide 4: Urea supply outside China decreased by 0.4% in 2021

    4 Urea supply outside China decreased by 0.4% (0.6 million tons ) in 2021, to 130.1 million tons 0 650 127 493 -500 -555 000 tonnes urea -570 -27 -212 1273 -1,000 -654 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -1635 West Asia Other Asia-Oceania China East Europe Latin America W/C Europe Africa South Asia North America

  5. Slide 5: Peak of capacity additions is now

    Peak of capacity additions is now 1) Urea projects assessed as “probable” by CRU. Source: CRU Dec 2022 6

  6. Slide 6: Urea supply curve is vertical around 2022 pricing

    Urea supply curve is vertical around 2022 pricing Source: Argus October 2022

  7. Slide 7: European natural gas (TTF) – below USD20/millbtu

    8 European natural gas (TTF ) – below USD20/millbtu USD/millbtu 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 Forward Feb 21 20.0 10.0 0.0 Feb Mar Mar May Jul Oct Feb May Jul Oct Feb Mar May Jun Nov Dec Jun Nov Dec Jun Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Apr Apr Apr Aug Sep Aug Sep

  8. Slide 8: Urea export from China – stronger recently

    Urea export from China – stronger recently 2020 2021 2022 6000 5000 4000 kt product 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

  9. Slide 9: Food prices still high, although down from 2022 peak

    Food prices still high, although down from 2022 peak 10

  10. Slide 10: Declining grain inventories

    Declining grain inventories Grain consumption and production Grain stocks – excluding China Million tons Mill. tonnes 2,900 380 2,800 360 2,700 340 May 2,600 320 2,500 300 Feb 2,400 280 2,300 260 2,200 240 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22E 23F 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22E 23F Consumption Production S

  11. Slide 11: Cereal index/urea index – Feb 23 highest since Dec 20

    Cereal index/urea index – Feb 23 highest since Dec 20 Index 1.4 Urea more affordable 1.3 (increased application rate) 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Urea less affordable 0.5 (reduced application rate) 0.4 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Ja

  12. Slide 12: US net nitrogen imports

    US net nitrogen imports 20/21 21/22 22/23 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 000 metric tons N 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun -500 TFI product selection

Yara International — Carnegie lunch presentation February 2023 on 6ix