Blue Bird Corporation · NASDAQ:BLBD
Blue Bird — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation
28 slides from Blue Bird's earnings presentation, Feb 5, 2025
Slide 1: FY2025 First Quarter Results Earnings Conference Call
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (NASDAQ: BLBD) FY2025 First Quarter Results Earnings Conference Call February 5, 2025
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Introductions & Mark Benfield Forward-Looking Statements Executive Director, Investor Relations Key Results and Highlights Phil Horlock President & CEO Financial Results Razvan Radulescu CFO Outlook Phil Horlock President & CEO Q&A Group This presentation includes forward-looking statements,
Slide 3: Important Disclaimers: Forward Looking Statements
Important Disclaimers Forward Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements relate to expectations for future financial performance,
Slide 4: Important Disclaimers: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Important Disclaimers Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation may include the following non-GAAP financial measures: “Adjusted EBITDA,” "Adjusted EBITDA Margin," “Adjusted Net Income,” “Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share,” “Free Cash Flow” and “Adjusted Free Cash Flow.” Additional information
Slide 5: Key Results & Highlights
KEY RESULTS & HIGHLIGHTS Phil Horlock President & CEO 5
Slide 6: Key FY2025 Q1 Takeaways: Near-Record Quarterly Profit
Key FY2025 Q1 Takeaways: Near-Record Quarterly Profit Near-Record Profit and Margin; Beat Q1 Guidance; Maintaining Full Year Guidance Robust Market Demand, Increasing Order Share and Continuing Strong Backlog Higher ICE Bus Prices Compared with Last Year and Competitive with Market EV Backlog Increa
Slide 7: FY2025 Q1 Financial Results and Key Business Highlights
FY2025 Q1 Financial Results and Key Business Highlights Strong Micro Bird $760M ~1,000 EVs New Plant UNITS NET BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Backlog of booked and in Acquired in SOLD SALES backlog1 New York 4.7k Units1 2,130 $314M John Wyskiel Announced as +1 vs.’24 $(4)M vs.’24 Maintaine
Slide 8: Impact of EPA/Federal Funding Pause on Blue Bird EV Deliveries
Impact of EPA/Federal Funding Pause on Blue Bird EV Deliveries EVs Booked and in Backlog Blue Bird Actions Taken ~1,000 Units • Reprioritized production plan to build fully- funded buses earlier EPA/Federal 250 Awarded with • Pushed back build dates for ordered buses Funding Paused where EPA/Federal
Slide 9: Impact of Government Tariffs on Blue Bird
Impact of Government Tariffs on Blue Bird Government Tariff Uncertainty ▪ Canadian (25%), Mexican (25%) and Chinese (10%) tariffs proposed for 2/4/2025 implementation ▪ Currently in flux with Mexican & Canadian tariffs on hold for 30 days following negotiations Blue Bird Response Plan ▪ Exploring so
Slide 10: Financial Results
FINANCIAL RESULTS Razvan Radulescu CFO 10
Slide 11: FY2025 Q1 Financial Results
FY2025 Q1 Financial Results FY2025 Q1 Results FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS UNITS NET SOLD SALES 2,130 $314M +1 vs.’24 $(4)M vs.’24 Adjusted Adjusted EBITDA FCF $46M $22M Strong Revenue, Adj. EBITDA and Free Cash-flow $(2)M vs.’24 $23M vs.’24 despite USW labor cost impact and lower EV mix See appendix for ad
Slide 12: Income Statement
Income Statement ($ Millions) FY2025-Q1 FY2024-Q1 B/(W) Unit Volume 2,130 2,129 1 Unit Backlog 4,395 4,570 (175) Net Revenue $313.9 $317.7 $(3.8) Bus Rev./Unit ($000's) $135.3 $137.8 $(2.5) Gross Margin 19.2% 20.0% (0.8) ppts Adj. EBITDA1 $45.8 $47.6 $(1.8) Adj. EBITDA Margin1 14.6% 15.0% (0.4) ppts
Slide 13: FY24-Q1 to FY25-Q1 Adj. EBITDA Walk
FY24-Q1 to FY25-Q1 Adj. EBITDA Walk ($ Millions) Unit Volumes (1.8) FY24-Q1 2,129 2.2 FY25-Q1 2,130 47.6 1.4 45.8 Delta 1 0.9 Net Pricing, (6.3) SG&A and t/o EV Volumes Lower EV Mix Higher Rev. FY24-Q1 206 Other Income USW labor costs and Margins FY25-Q1 132 Delta (74) USW Profit sharing Insurance/H
Slide 14: Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow ($ Millions) FY2025-Q1 FY2024-Q1 B/(W) Cash $136.1 $77.3 $58.8 Debt $(93.8) $(134.7) $40.9 Liquidity $279.4 $184.3 $95.1 Operating Cash Flow $26.4 $0.2 $26.2 Adj. Free Cash Flow1 $21.8 $(1.5) $23.3 Trade Working Capital* $4.3 $(28.8) $33.1 Stock Buyback of $10M executed i
Slide 15: FY2025 Quarterly Guidance – Updated
FY2025 Quarterly Guidance – Updated Rev. $314 ~$350 ~$375 ~$400 $1,400 - $1,500 $M 200 1 ✓ Growing EV sales, and Revenue per QTR ~$400M in Q4 Adj. EBITDA 185 - 215 ✓ Approx. 1,000 EV sold and in backlog ✓ Growing Adj. EBITDA in the $45M - $60M range We beat FY25-Q1 ✓ Consistent levels of ~14% Adj. E
Slide 16: FY2025 Full Year Guidance – Confirm $200M and ~14% Margin
FY2025 Full Year Guidance – Confirm $200M and ~14% Margin Tailwinds FY25 Scenarios Headwinds Downside Guidance Upside • Strong ICE demand Supply / EPA EV • Supply chain • Stable Gross Margins Units 9,000 9,250 9,500 • Labor Costs (USW) t/o EV Units <1,000 ~1,000 1,000+ • Propane/Gas exclusive • Mate
Slide 17: FY2025 Full Year Guidance – Confirm $200M and ~14% Margin
FY2025 Full Year Guidance – Confirm $200M and ~14% Margin FY2024 FY2025 FY2025 B/(W) $ Millions Actuals Guidance February Vs. Prior Year Guidance Net Revenue $1,347 $1,400 - $1,500 $1,400 - $1,500 $53 - $153 Adj. EBITDA1 $183 $190 - $210 $185 - $215 $2 - $32 Adj. Free Cash Flow1 $99 $40 - $60 $40 -
Slide 18: We Reconfirm Our Mid Term Outlook at 14% EBITDA
We Reconfirm Our Mid Term Outlook at 14% EBITDA Revenue $M Diesel Gas/Propane EV QTR Full YR 2024 2025 Outlook Outlook Rev. Units Actual Updated Mid Term Long Term (2028+) $M 2,466 Guidance 12,000+ 2,500 2,254 2,151 400 12,000 11,000 3,000 2,116 2,129 2,130 10,000 2,000 10,000 9,000 9,250 2,500 $350
Slide 19: Outlook
OUTLOOK Phil Horlock President & CEO 19
Slide 20: FY2025 Priorities Align with Our Strategy
FY2025 Priorities Align with Our Strategy Leader in Safety Best Great Products Service & Features Sustained Profitable Growth 8% 14% 15%+ EBITDA Margin Highest Competitive Quality & Cost Durability Alt Power Leader Our core strategies drive our plans toward sustained profitable growth 20
Slide 21: Record Profit Outlook in FY2025 & Beyond
Record Profit Outlook in FY2025 & Beyond NA School Bus Industry Thousands Bookings 3%+ = ~9,250 units Class 6-7* 39.5 38.9 37.7 36.8 36.1 36.4 35.8 33.2 Revenue 8%+ = ~$1.45 Billion 29.6 30.5 29.3 26.4 25.7 ~6% CAGR Adj. EBITDA 9% = ~$200 Million Adj. EBITDA 40 bps = ~14% Margin EV Bookings 42%+ = ~
Slide 22: Wrap Up – Key Messages Following Near-Record Q1 Earnings
Wrap Up – Key Messages Following Near-Record Q1 Earnings ▪ Very strong Q1 results – beating Guidance on both profit and revenue and achieving an outstanding Adj. EBITDA margin, with only 6% EV mix, which we signaled last quarter ▪ Our profit margins are strong on all powertrain offerings; with a 94%
Slide 23: Q&A
Q&A 23
Slide 24: Appendix
APPENDIX 24
Slide 25: Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation
Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation 25
Slide 26: Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
Free Cash Flow Reconciliation 26
Slide 27: Adjusted EPS Reconciliation
Adjusted EPS Reconciliation 27
Slide 28: End
End 28