Aib Group Plc · EURONEXT:A5G

Aib — Corporate Update (November 2024)

13 slides from Aib's corporate update, November 2024

  1. Slide 1: The Irish Economic Update: Economy moves onto a slower growth trajectory

    The Irish Economic Update: Economy moves onto a slower growth trajectory November 2024 1

  2. Slide 2: Irish economy slowed in 2023, but domestic economy remains solid in 2024

    Irish economy slowed in 2023, but domestic economy remains solid in 2024  GDP fell by 5.4% GDP, after increasing by 8.6% in 2022  Surge in FDI, big jump in pharma & ICT output, key factors in rapid growth in 2021-22 Irish GDP and MDD  18.0% Unwinding of Covid-era revenues in Pharma key driver of

  3. Slide 3: Exports bouncing back following weak 2023

    Exports bouncing back following weak 2023  Ireland is a very open economy – exports, driven by Export Destinations 2023 large scale FDI, are a huge part of economy  Pharma, medical care products, ICT, business & Rest of World 20% financial services main components of FDI  Irish FDI inflows may al

  4. Slide 4: Survey indicators consistent with continued growth in 2024

    Survey indicators consistent with continued growth in 2024 AIB Irish Mfg and Services PMIs BNP Paribas Irish Construction PMI 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 Manufacturing 30 30 20 Services 20 10 10 0 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23 Oct-24 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23 Oct-24 Source: S&P Global Sour

  5. Slide 5: Unemployment rate at low level, inflation falls sharply

    Unemployment rate at low level, inflation falls sharply. Overall, data consistent with more modest growth % Employment (YoY, %) Unemployment Rate 18 8.0 15 7.5 Private 12 7.0 9 6.5 Total 6 6.0 3 5.5 0 Public 5.0 -3 4.5 -6 -9 4.0 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 202

  6. Slide 6: House price inflation gathers momentum

    House price inflation gathers momentum  House prices declined sharply, by 55% from 2007-2013. % 3.0 National House Price Inflation % 18.0 Prices have fully recovered - back above 2007 peak level 2.5 15.0  Low supply, remote working, strong public/institutional 2.0 1.5 12.0 9.0 demand, enhanced hel

  7. Slide 7: House completions rise above 30k level

    House completions rise above 30k level  Completions jumped sharply to 30,000 in 2022. 40,000 CSO Housing Completions  New supply rose to 32.7k in 2023. 35,000 30,000  Lead indicators for 2024 suggest upward momentum in 25,000 20,000 supply may have stalled 15,000  Supply could rise to 35k over n

  8. Slide 8: Public & private sector balance sheets in robust shape

    Public & private sector balance sheets in robust shape Irish Household Savings Ratio % Irish Household Debt Ratio % 35 220 30 200 25 180 20 160 15 140 10 120 5 100 0 Q2 2004 Q2 2006 Q2 2008 Q2 2010 Q2 2012 Q2 2014 Q2 2016 Q2 2018 Q2 2020 Q2 2022 Q2 2024 80 Q2 2003 Q2 2006 Q2 2009 Q2 2012 Q2 2015 Q2

  9. Slide 9: Strong economy leads to large budget surpluses

    Strong economy leads to large budget surpluses  Budget 2025: €10.5bn in new measures  Including €2.2bn in largely one-off payments in 2024 – welfare, energy credits etc.  €8.3bn package guided in the Budget, €6.9bn spending, €1.4bn in tax  Within this a €1.6bn increase in the Capital budget in 2

  10. Slide 10: Economy moves to slower growth path, but in good shape

    Economy moves to slower growth path, but in good shape  Continuing global headwinds and capacity constraints, but Irish economy is underpinned by positive factors  FDI inflows continuing, boosting investment, exports and employment 140 Household deposits - Quarterly (€bn)  Fiscal policy to remain

  11. Slide 11: AIB Irish Economic Forecasts – October 2024

    AIB Irish Economic Forecasts – October 2024 % change in real terms unless 2022 2023 2024 (f) 2025 (f) 2026 (f) stated GDP 8.6 -5.4 -0.3 2.8 2.8 GNP 2.3 5.5 1.3 2.3 2.3 Modified Final Domestic Demand 8.8 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.7 Personal Consumption 10.7 4.8 2.7 3.0 2.9 Government Spending 3.0 4.3 2.9 2.8 2.1

  12. Slide 12: Risks to the Irish economy

    Risks to the Irish economy  Very open Irish economy vulnerable to weaker global outlook, including FDI inflows  Concentration risk from heavy reliance of economy on a small number of multi-nationals in terms of investment, output, employment, exports and tax receipts  Higher interest rates headwi

  13. Slide 13: Changes to Global Corporate Tax Regime

    Changes to Global Corporate Tax Regime Importance of FDI:  Some 1,800 multinational companies are based in Ireland, accounting for over 300,000 jobs in direct employment  Corporation tax receipts of €23.8bn in 2023 or 27% of total tax revenue – well over 80% comes from MNCs Changes to Corporate Ta

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