Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. · NYSE:CF
Cf Industries — Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation
20 slides from Cf Industries's earnings presentation, Feb 19, 2025
Slide 1: 2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results
2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results February 19, 2024 NYSE: CF
Slide 2: Safe harbor statement
Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”), other th an those relating to historical facts, are forward - looking statements. Forward - looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms
Slide 3: Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures
Note regarding non - GAAP financial measures The Company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Management believes that EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion, which are non - GAAP fin
Slide 4: Industry leading operational excellence drives cash generation
4 Industry leading operational excellence drives cash generation (1) See appendix for reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP measure (2) Share repurchases and dividends paid in FY 2024 (3) See appendix for reconciliation of free cash flow to the most directly comparab
Slide 5: Leading converter of EBITDA into Cash
5 Leading converter of EBITDA into Cash FCF to adjusted EBITDA conversion (1) 63% 3% 39% 12% CF Yara Nutrien Mosaic Full Year 2024 LTM Q3 2024 $2,254 $5,375 $2,051 $2,284 Adj. EBITDA (2) $1,618 $4,562 $1,286 $2,271 Cash from Operations $266 $2,101 $61 $1,445 Free Cash Flow 317.6 493.9 254.7 169.9 Sh
Slide 6: Fourth quarter and full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA
6 Fourth quarter and full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA (1) See appendix for reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP measure 6 Adj. EBITDA FY 2023 FY 2024 vs FY 2023 Adjusted EBITDA (1) Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023 Adjusted EBITDA (1) $ millions Adj. EBITDA FY 2024 $ 592 $ (36) $( 3
Slide 7: Returned $1.9B to shareholders; the highest return in the past decade
7 Returned $1.9B to shareholders; the highest return in the past decade $1,877 $420 $(197) $(461) $(25) $1,614 Cash Q3 2024 (1) Cash from Operations Capex Return to Shareholders (2) Other Cash Q4 2024 (1) $2,032 $1,614 $2,271 $(518) $(308) $(1,873) $10 Q4 2024 Cash Sources and Uses FY 2024 Cash Sour
Slide 8: Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share
8 8.2 8.2 7.0 (2) 6.0 (1) Production Capacity millions (nutrient tons) Annual Nitrogen Equivalent Tons per 1,000 Shares Outstanding 17 30 39 48 2010 2015 2020 2024 Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share Million Shares Outstanding (3) Since 2010: Increased production capacity 3
Slide 9: Evaluation of greenfield low-carbon ammonia production facility nearing completion
9 Evaluation of greenfield low - carbon ammonia production facility nearing completion Multiple FEED studies completed Finalizing structure and agreements Key Milestones Blue Point Project Summary Final investment d ecision Clean Energy Growth ~$4B ammonia production unit ~$500M scalable infrastruct
Slide 10: Projected capacity shortfall requires at least eight additional world-scale ammonia facilities
10 Demand Growth FID/Under Contruction… Expected European Closures 2029 Supply Projected capacity shortfall requires at least eight additional world - scale (1) ammonia facilities to meet demand growth (1) World - scale plant represent 1.1 MMT of nameplate capacity (2) Demand growth includes traditi
Slide 11: Global Energy Price 2023-2025F
11 Global Energy Price 2023 - 2025F Source: ICE, Bloomberg, CF Analysis (1) Assumes North American production to be 37.2 MMBtu per MT of ammonia for feedstock and fuel and European production assumed at 37.8 M MBt u per MT for feedstock and fuel with a forward spread HH vs TTF of ~$10/MMBtu Forward
Slide 12: Near-term global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics
12 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025F Near - term global nitrogen supply - demand dynamics Sources: Industry Publications, CRU Urea Market Outlook as of December 2024, CF Analysis India Urea Imports 5.3 MMT 6.0 - 7.0 MMT 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025F China Urea Exports Million metric tons 4.3 MMT 1.5 -
Slide 13: CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table
13 $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $0.7 $0.8 $1.0 $1.1 $1.3 $1.4 $1.5 $300 $1.5 $1.6 $1.7 $1.9 $2.0 $2.2 $2.3 $350 $2.2 $2.4 $2.5 $2.6 $2.8 $2.9 $3.0 $400 $3.0 $3.1 $3.3 $3.4 $3.5 $3.7 $3.8 $450 $3.7 $3.9 $4.0 $4.1 $4.3 $4.4 $4.6 $500 $4.5 $4.6 $4.8 $4.9 $5.0 $5.2 $5.3 $550 $5.2 $5.4 $5.5
Slide 14: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 15: Pathways to grow shareholder value
15 Evaluate accretive acquisitions Margin enhancing projects Share repurchases and quarterly dividends Low - carbon ammonia production growth Pathways to grow shareholder value Creating substantial value for long - term shareholders Return capital to shareholders Inorganic growth opportunities Inves
Slide 16: Below average global coarse grains stocks-to-use and farm economics support favorable nitrogen demand
16 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 2023 2024E 2025F Corn Soybeans Wheat Below average global coarse grains stocks - to - use and f arm economics support favorable nitrogen demand in 2025 (1) Crop futures prices represent Marketing Year (September – August) average daily settlement of the front month
Slide 17: Outstanding safety performance drives industry leading production capacity utilization
17 Outstanding safety performance drives industry leading production capacity utilization (1) Source of data: December 17, 2024 CRU Ammonia Database (2) Represents CF Industries historical North American production and CRU’s capacity estimates for CF Industries (3) Calculated by removing CF Industri
Slide 18: Financial results – fourth quarter and FY 2024
Financial results – fourth quarter and FY 2024 FY 2023 FY 2024 Q4 2023 Q4 2024 In millions, except percentages, per MMBtu and EPS $ 6,631 $ 5,936 $ 1,571 $ 1,524 Net sales 2,545 2,056 501 524 Gross margin 38.4 % 34.6 % 31.9 % 34.4 % - As a percentage of net sales $ 1,525 $ 1,218 $ 274 $ 328 Net earn
Slide 19: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA
Non - GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA 19 (1) Loan fee amortization is included in both interest expense (income) — net and depreciation and amortization FY 2023 FY 2024 Q4 2023 Q4 2024 In millions $ 1,838 $ 1,477 $ 352 $ 392 Net earnings (313) (259) (78) (64) Less:
Slide 20: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow
Non - GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow Mosaic LTM Q3 2024 Nutrien LTM Q3 2024 Yara FY 2024 CF FY 2024 In millions , except percentages 1,618 $ 4,562 $ 1,286 $ 2,271 $ Cash provided by operating activities (1,317) (2,064) (1,038) (518) C apital expenditures (1) (35) - -
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