Ctp N.v. · EURONEXT:CTPNV
Ctp — Investor Presentation (September 2023)
20 slides from Ctp's investor presentation, Sep 20, 2023
Slide 1: Poland as the perfect fit for your business
POLAND AS THE PERFECT FIT FOR YOUR BUSINESS CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD // 20TH OF SEPTEMBER Hl | CUSHMAN & wi WAKEFIELD
Slide 2: Warehouse market H1 2023
H1 2023 Warehouse market Vacant space New supply (YTD) Under construction Vacancy rate Total stock Gross take-up (YTD) Net take-up (YTD) Prime headline rent
Slide 3: Share of Poland stock
Share of Poland stock Mazowieckie Kujawsko-Pomorskie Śląskie Małopolskie Łódzkie Podkarpackie Dolnośląskie Opolskie Wielkopolskie Lubelskie Lubuskie Warmińsko-Mazurskie Pomorskie Podlaskie Zachodniopomorskie Świętokrzyskie
Slide 4: Logistics market in CEE region
Poland 35 9% 8,1% Millions SQM 6,7% 8% 30 7% 25 6% 20 4,8% 5% 3,7% 4% 15 3% 10 logistics 1,5% 1,7% 2% 5 1% market in CEE region 0 0% Bulgaria* Slovakia Hungary Romania Czech Republic Poland * Only Sofia Total stock (sq m) Vacancy rate SQM 1 200 1 064 1 000 834 800 661 600 494 400 355 273 200 0 Czech
Slide 5: Largest logistics market in Europe
Poland Millions sqm 160 143,35 140 120 97,47 100 80 largest logistics 60 52,10 market in Europe 40 30,67 30,55 26,43 24,46 20,84 20 0 United Germany France Poland Netherlands Belgium Italy Denmark Kingdom 4 000 SQ M 3 512 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 249 2 139 2 000 1 715 1 500 1 155 1 000 834 765 500 416 0
Slide 6: Poland volumes in 2022-2023
Poland 25% volumes in 2022-2023 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Slide 7: Stock growth forecast
Stock growth forecast 5,0 35,0 33,0 31,9 4,5 30,0 28,0 4,0 25,0 3,5 23,5 3,0 20,3 New supply (Mn sq m) 20,0 18,2 2,5 15,4 15,0 2,0 13,1 10,8 1,5 9,6 10,0 8,5 7,1 7,5 6,1 6,5 1,0 5,7 4,7 5,0 3,4 0,5 2,0 2,4 0,0 0,0
Slide 8: Poland returned to 6-8% territory
Poland 18% 16% returned to 6-8% territory 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Slide 9: Poland has rebounded after a weak end of 2022
Poland 1 800 000 1 600 000 has 1 400 000 rebounded after a weak end of 2022 1 200 000 1 000 000 sq m 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Slide 10: Who owns the warehouses?
Who owns the warehouses? Developer / Owner Stock % share Panattoni & JV 3 369 480 11,00% Prologis 2 371 873 7,70% SEGRO 1 682 727 5,50% Logicor 1 613 153 5,30% EQT Exeter 1 501 300 4,90% GLP 1 499 146 4,90% Accolade 1 368 629 4,50% P3 Logistic Parks 1 359 296 4,40% CBRE IM 1 357 482 4,40% Savills IM
Slide 11: Who builds the warehouses?
Who builds the warehouses? 2 500 000 Developer Stock UC % share 2 000 000 Panattoni 667 918 32% CTP 448 117 21% Hillwood 343 688 16% 1 500 000 MDC² 180 315 9% P3 Logistic Parks 172 373 8% 1 000 000 MLP Group 72 552 3% 7R SA 65 211 3% GLP 58 138 3% 500 000 LemonTree 43 679 2% SEGRO 40 992 2% DL Inves
Slide 12: Calming tenant activity after the post-pandemic peak
Poland 8 000 000 7 000 000 calming tenant activity 6 000 000 after the post-pandemic 5 000 000 peak sq m 4 000 000 Demand for warehouse space slowed down recently and leasing volumes seems returning to levels noted in 2017- 2020. Nevertheless, we expect total take-up to reach 3 000 000 4 million sq
Slide 13: Supply chain model
Supply chain model MANUFACTURER IMPORTER MANUFACTURER IMPORTER REGIONAL WAREHOUSE REGIONAL WAREHOUSE LOCAL E-COMMERCE RETURNS WAREHOUSE WAREHOUSE HUB LOCAL WAREHOUSE STORE SORTING FACILITY STORE CUSTOMERS CLICK & PUDO HOME COLLECT DELIVERY CUSTOMERS
Slide 14: Adjustment to the new reality
Adjustment to the new reality MANUFACTURER IMPORTER REGIONAL WAREHOUSE LOCAL E-COMMERCE RETURNS WAREHOUSE WAREHOUSE HUB DARK STORE SORTING FACILITY RE-COMMERCE STORE WAREHOUSE Q-COMMERCE CUSTOMERS CONNECTED HOME PUDO CLICK RETAIL DELIVERY & COLLECT
Slide 15: Take-up Poland
Take-up Poland Region Net take-up % share H2 2022-H1 2023 Lower Silesia 564 229 18,4% Mazovia 551 766 17,9% Silesia 492 623 16,0% Greater Poland 314 197 10,2% Łódzkie 280 553 9,1% Pomerania 203 909 6,6% Lesser Poland 172 010 5,6% West Pomerania 104 143 3,4% Lubusz 96 092 3,1% Lubelskie 80 157 2,6% K
Slide 16: Rents should weaken along with HICP growth
Poland (eur/sqm/month) Warsaw Suburbs 3.40 - 4.20 3.80-5.75 Warsaw Inner City 5.00 - 5.75 5.10-7.50 Upper Silesia 3.40 - 4.10 4.20-5.20 Central Poland 3.40 - 4.00 3.65-4.90 Wrocław 3.40 – 5.00 3.80-5.50 should weaken along Poznań Western Poland 3.50 - 3.90 3.80 - 4.10 3.80-4.50 3.90-4.30 Tricity 3.6
Slide 17: Rental growth
Rental growth 6,00 5,00 Eur/ sq m/ month 4,00 3,00 2,00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-2027 (F) Warsaw - Suburbs Katowice Poznań Łódź Wrocław 7,5 6,5 6,5 6,5 5,8 EUR /SQM/ MONTH 5,5 5,5 5,5 5,2 4,9 4,8 4,8 4,7 4,4 4,5 5,1 4,5 4,8 4,2 4,3 4,2 4,2 4,2 4,1 4,
Slide 18: Outlook
Outlook Poland remains one of the most attractive logistics locations, c to its strategic geographic location, large supply of stm land, conti developm f a trans 1 infrastructure, larg onsumer k Industrial buildings ¢ cted in accordance with current thermal insulation standards, v uipped with modern
Slide 19: Food for thoughts
Food for thoughts Logistics is no longer an afterthought. Today, logistics has become a game changer and key differentiator that sets one business apart from another.
Slide 20: Thank You!
Thank You! The Industrial & Logistics team offers comprehensive services associated with the rental of warehousing, industrial and logistics space. Our team, consisting of 24 experts, has extensive knowledge and experience in the sector and market expertise, thanks to which they are able to identify