Slide 1: Q3 Outlook Reaffirmed
Q3 OUTLOOK REAFFIRMED DFDS GROUP 12 November 2019
Slide 2: Contents
Contents • Overview • 5 performance drivers • Q3 numbers • Capital structure & cash flow • WIN23 • Outlook and priorities 2019 The statements about the future in this announcement contain risks and uncertainties. This entails that actual developments may diverge significantly from statements about t
Slide 3: Q3 2019 – FY outlook reaffirmed in 'flat' Europe
Q3 2019 – FY outlook reaffirmed in ‘flat’ Europe • Q3 EBITDA on level with 2018 Q3 EBITDA before special items (IFRS 16 applied from 2018) despite UK slowdown DKK m 2019 1,195 • Recovery of trading between Turkey and Europe continues 2018 1,197 • EBITDA outlook range for 2019 2017 976 narrowed to DK
Slide 4: Headwind in Med and Channel. Baltic and Logistics steady
Headwind in Med and Channel. Baltic and Logistics steady DKK bn Revenue per quarter & YTD +7% • Group Q3 revenue up 2% and EBITDA on 12 level with 2018 10 8 • UK slowdown impacted ferry routes 6 +11% +9% +2% negatively, especially Channel pax 4 volumes 2 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1-3 • Good performance in Baltic
Slide 5: 5 key DFDS performance drivers 2019 face headwind
5 key DFDS performance drivers 2019 face headwind 1. Growth benefits from Mediterranean Extended Turkish recession. expansion: Full-year UNRR integration impact Challenges addressed through and expanded cooperation with Ekol Logistics operational changes 2. Well prepared for Brexit, incl. Department
Slide 6: Profit before tax up as finance costs reduced
Profit before tax up as finance costs reduced Change Change • Revenue up 2% as Mediterranean growth and new DKK m Q3 19 Q3 18 vs LY % route (Got-Zee) was offset by UK slowdown REVENUE 4,472 4,383 89 2% EBITDA BEFORE SI 1,195 1,197 -3 0% • Margin reduced by lower utilisation on UK routes, margin, % 2
Slide 7: UK trade slowdown continued in Q3
UK trade slowdown continued in Q3 EU-UK trade of goods - volume development • Trading of goods 15% between UK and EU decreased in Q3 10% • Some catch-up in September 5% • Stockpiling impact in October less than in Q1 0% -5% -10% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 July Aug Sep 2016 2017 2018 2
Slide 8: Turkey-EU trade of goods is recovering
Turkey-EU trade of goods is recovering Turkey exports to DFDS' EU target markets Turkey imports from DFDS' EU target markets (source: Drewry) (source: Drewry) 550 650 500 600 550 Tonnes, '000 450 Tonnes, '000 500 400 450 350 400 300 350 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 250 Jan Feb Ma
Slide 9: Ferry Division – EBIT down 6% to DKK 696m
Ferry Division – EBIT down 6% to DKK 696m • North Sea down DKK 8m due to 6%* lower volumes, ramp-up of Got-Zee and ferry cost DKK m Q3 2019 EBIT development vs LY increases partly due to timing differences. 750 Mitigation from DfT income 740 14 -8 • Baltic Sea up DKK 14m. Freight volumes steady, 730
Slide 10: Mediterranean route network restructured
Mediterranean route network restructured • Operational complexity increased by fast Mediterranean freight volume, total routes capacity expansion from year-end 2018 LM '000 • 3 additional freight ferries and port 400 terminals added to network 380 360 • Customer service and operating efficiency leve
Slide 11: Logistics Division – EBIT down 2% to DKK 47m
Logistics Division – EBIT down 2% to DKK 47m Q3 2019: Logistics Division, • Nordic’s EBIT down DKK 2m as UK DKK m EBIT change vs LY slowdown reduced volumes. 49 Specialised services also lower. Improved balance of flows in many 48 activities 47 46 -2 • Continent’s EBIT on level adjusted for pension
Slide 12: Capital structure – deleveraging set to continue
Capital structure – deleveraging set to continue NIBD/EBITDA (restated to IFRS 16) • NIBD/EBITDA-multiple 3.1x end of 3.5 Q3 2019 3.0 3.3 3.2 • Expected investments in 2019 reduced 3.1 3.1 DKK 400m to DKK 2.4bn. Majority of 2.5 reduction expected to transfer to 2020 2.0 • 2020 investments currently
Slide 13: Win23 strategy - strategic pillars to drive growth
Win23 strategy - 4 strategic pillars to drive growth • Focus until year-end on set-up: • Breakdown of 10 key initiatives in workstreams • Detailed assignment of responsibility • Business case development • Financial tracking • Execution phase set to start beginning of 2020 13
Slide 14: Earnings outlook reaffirmed. Investments lowered DKK 400m
Earnings outlook reaffirmed. Investments lowered DKK 400m • Q4 overall off to a good start. UK visibility low and still risk of new slowdown OUTLOOK 2019 • Revenue growth of around 6% • Turkey-Europe trade seems to be firming up (previously 6-8%) • Revenue growth lowered to around 6% • EBITDA range
Slide 15: Current priorities – room to improve operational efficiency
Current priorities – room to improve operational efficiency • Improve Mediterranean operational efficiency and customer service levels • Further development of new route Gothenburg-Zeebrugge • Stay alert on Brexit • Win23 – new strategic and financial ambitions – develop collaboration across organis
Slide 16: DWAR Na §
Tw 4 DWAR Na § HOA HV CLAY CHU UN, Tat