Slide 1: DER Potential Study
DER Potential Study Prepared for: Avista Distribution Planning Advisory Group (DPAG) Q1 Meeting In Partnership with: Date: March 27, 2024
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda • Context • Executive Summary • Forecasting Overview • Results • Electric Vehicles • New Generation and Storage • Next Steps Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appliedenergygroup.com 2
Slide 3: Presentation Structure
Presentation Structure • The AEG team will present high-level methods and results from the DER Potential Study • Please hold questions until the end of each section • We also plan to reserve time at the end of the presentation for any additional questions • These slides present: • an end-to-end anal
Slide 4: DER Potential Study Project Objectives
DER Potential Study Project Objectives • Satisfy Condition 14 from WUTC approval of Avista’s Clean Energy Implementation Plan. Condition 14 from WUTC approval: • Develop reasonable estimates for new customer generation, storage, and controllable load impacts on a localized basis within Avista’s • Av
Slide 5: Project Overview
Project Overview EV & New Stakeholder DER Forecasting Generation and Presentation & Utility Survey Methodology Storage Potential Reporting Task 1 Task 2 Tasks 3-4 Tasks 5-6 Identify priority utilities and Input development Modeling approach Stakeholder presentation research questions ACTIVITIES DER
Slide 6: Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Slide 7: Summary of Results
Summary of Results Year 2045 Result Summary, Base Scenario Nameplate % of Nameplate Annual Load December Size MW in Named Impact July Peak Load Peak Load Resource (MW) Community (GWh) Impact (MW)* Impact (MW)* Customer Solar PV 105 46% -127 -33 0 Customer Storage 97 58% 2 -3 -9 Customer Wind 1 36% ~
Slide 8: Summary of Results, Cont.
Summary of Results, Cont. Annual EVSE Load Impact Annual Customer Solar PV Load Impact by Year, Base Scenario by Year, Base Scenario Widespread electrification of vehicle stock in Avista WA service territory to drive substantial electric load growth (over 2,000 GWh in 2045). Customer solar accounts
Slide 9: Forecasting Overview
Forecasting Overview
Slide 10: Consistent Framework to Forecast the Adoption and Load Impacts for Each DER
Consistent Framework to Forecast the Adoption and Load Impacts for Each DER DER Forecasting Framework Service Point DER Eligibility DER Load 8760 Forecast Characteristics and Adoption Impacts Time Step • Service Point Characteristics are known data for each Avista service point: number, weight class
Slide 11: Model Produces a Forecast of 8760 Hourly Load Impacts Across Avista's Distribution System
Model Produces a Forecast of 8760 Hourly Load Impacts Across Avista’s Distribution System Total MWH Impact for Residential EVSE Total MWH Impact for Residential EVSE Year 2045, Base Scenario, Service Territory Year 2045, Base Scenario, Spokane Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appliedenergygroup.com 11
Slide 12: Named Community Definition
Named Community Definition Named Community Map Avista Utilities WA Electric Service Territory Named Any Avista service point for which one or more of the Community following is true: • Highly Impacted: in a census tract with a WA Department of Health “EHD v2.0 Overall Rank” score of 9 or 10. • Vulne
Slide 13: Terms and Acronyms
Terms and Acronyms • Peak Hour: We assume a “planning peak” at the hour ending 18:00 on July and December weekdays. This may differ from actual system peak periods. • LDV: Light duty vehicle (Class 1 and 2, 0–10,000 lbs) • MDV: Medium duty vehicle (Class 3 through 6, 10,001-26,000 lbs) • HDV: Heavy
Slide 14: Scenario Definitions
Scenario Definitions • Base Scenario: Most likely future, based on current trends and policy landscape • Residential LDV EV market share follows California’s Advanced Clean Cars II regulation, with the named community market share adjusted downward. • Non-residential EV market shares consistent with
Slide 15: Results: Electric Vehicles
Results: Electric Vehicles
Slide 16: Scope of EV and EVSE Analysis
Scope of EV and EVSE Analysis Resource Residential Non-Residential LDV BEV LDV PHEV MDV BEV HDV BEV L1 EVSE L2 EVSE DCFC EVSE Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appliedenergygroup.com 16
Slide 17: Electric Vehicle- and EVSE-Specific Forecasting Framework
Electric Vehicle- and EVSE-Specific Forecasting Framework Service Point DER Eligibility DER Load 8760 Forecast Characteristics and Adoption Impacts • Assign vehicle count, weight • BEV and PHEV • Annual kWh is a function of class, and fuel type to each • eligibility at vehicle turnover weight class
Slide 18: Data Sources for Electric Vehicle and EVSE Analysis
Data Sources for Electric Vehicle and EVSE Analysis Service Point DER Eligibility DER Load 8760 Forecast Characteristics and Adoption Impacts • Avista customer data • Avista customer data • 2022 Avista TE Report • Washington Department of • Washington EV Council • Alternative Fuel Data Center Licens
Slide 19: BEV Approaches 64% of Residential Vehicle Stock in 2045
BEV Approaches 64% of Residential Vehicle Stock in 2045 Total Residential Vehicle Stock by Year, Base Scenario BEV and PHEV are 64% of stock in 2045 Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appliedenergygroup.com 19
Slide 20: BEV is 78% of Fleet LDV Stock and 49% of Fleet MHDV Stock in 2045
BEV is 78% of Fleet LDV Stock and 49% of Fleet MHDV Stock in 2045 Total Non-Residential Fleet Vehicle Stock by Year, Base Scenario BEV and PHEV 49% of MDV/HDV stock in 2045 BEV and PHEV are 78% of LDV stock in 2045 Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appliedenergygroup.com 20
Slide 21: EVSE Adoption Summaries
EVSE Adoption Summaries Total EVSE Adoption by Named EVSE Adoption by Sector EVSE Adoption by Charger Type Community and Scenario Base Scenario, Nameplate MW in 2045 Base Scenario, Nameplate MW in 2045 Nameplate MW in 2045 Total: 2,973 MW Total: 2,973 MW Totals: 2,973 MW; 3,303 MW Most charging is r
Slide 22: 2,391 GWh of EVSE Load Impact by 2045
2,391 GWh of EVSE Load Impact by 2045 Annual EVSE Load Impact by Year, Base Scenario Base scenario: 2,391 GWh in 2045 • 40% increase in Avista WA’s electric load by year 2045. • 2,373 GWh new load relative to current-state High incentive scenario: 2,617 GWh Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appliedenergy
Slide 23: Hourly EVSE Load Impact During Peak Periods
Hourly EVSE Load Impact During Peak Periods Service Territory Hourly EVSE Load Impact Service Territory Hourly EVSE Load Impact Base Scenario, August Weekdays, Year 2045 Base Scenario, December Weekdays, Year 2045 Hourly load impact is driven by input shape, which assumes most residential and fleet
Slide 24: Geospatial Results: Res EVSE Load Impact
Geospatial Results: Res EVSE Load Impact Total MWH Impact for Residential EVSE Total MWH Impact for Residential EVSE Year 2045, Base Scenario, Service Territory Year 2045, Base Scenario, Spokane Shapes are 2020 census block group boundaries Color ramp represents block group load impact Applied Energ
Slide 25: Results: New Generation and Storage
Results: New Generation and Storage
Slide 26: Geospatial Results: Non-Res EVSE Load Impact
Geospatial Results: Non-Res EVSE Load Impact Total MWH Impact for Non-Residential EVSE Total MWH Impact for Non-Residential EVSE Year 2045, Base Scenario, Service Territory Year 2045, Base Scenario, Spokane Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appliedenergygroup.com 26
Slide 27: Scope of New Generation and Storage Analysis
Scope of New Generation and Storage Analysis Resource Residential Non-Residential Customer Solar PV Customer Storage Customer Wind • AEG team’s analysis goes into detail for the technologies in the table above • AEG team also considered other generation technologies (i.e., biomass, combined heat and
Slide 28: New Generation and Storage Forecasting Framework
New Generation and Storage Forecasting Framework Service Point DER Eligibility DER Load 8760 Forecast Characteristics and Adoption Impacts • Place known Customer Solar • Apply eligibility criteria • Assign nameplate size to each PV and Customer Wind at • For each year, apply adoption adopter service
Slide 29: Data Sources for New Generation and Storage Analysis
Data Sources for New Generation and Storage Analysis Service Point DER Eligibility DER Load 8760 Forecast Characteristics and Adoption Impacts • US Census Bureau • Avista customer data • NREL PV Watts • Avista DER interconnection • NREL DGEN market model • AEG team analysis data • Avista TOU pilot t
Slide 30: 105 MW of Customer Solar PV Forecasted in 2045
105 MW of Customer Solar PV Forecasted in 2045 Customer Solar PV Adoption by Sector Total Customer Solar PV Adoption by Scenario Base Scenario, Nameplate MW in 2045 Nameplate MW in 2045 Total: 105 MW Totals: 105 MW, 117 MW 84% of customer solar PV is Incremental 12 MW of solar PV in High residential
Slide 31: 127 GWh of Customer Solar PV Load Impact in 2045
127 GWh of Customer Solar PV Load Impact in 2045 Annual, Customer Solar PV Load Impact by Year, Base Scenario Base Scenario: 127 GWh • 1% to 3% reduction in Avista WA’s electric load by year 2045. • 82 GWh increase over current state High Incentive Scenario: 132 GWh Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appl
Slide 32: Hourly Customer Solar PV Load Impact During Peak Periods
Hourly Customer Solar PV Load Impact During Peak Periods Service Territory, Hourly, Customer Solar PV Load Impact Base Scenario, Weekdays, Year 2045 Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appliedenergygroup.com 32
Slide 33: Geospatial Results: Solar PV Load Impact
Geospatial Results: Solar PV Load Impact Total MWH Impact for Customer Solar PV Total MWH Impact for Customer Solar PV Year 2045, Base Scenario, Service Territory Year 2045, Base Scenario, Spokane Applied Energy Group, Inc. | appliedenergygroup.com 33
Slide 34: Wind and Storage Adoption
Wind and Storage Adoption Customer Storage Adoption by Sector Customer Wind Adoption by Sector Base Scenario, Nameplate MW in 2045 Base Scenario, Nameplate MW in 2045 Total: 97 MW Total: 0.5 MW Customer storage and customer wind load impacts are minimal. • Storage: 2 GWh annual energy, -3 MW at summ
Slide 35: Questions?
Questions?
Slide 36: Next Steps for Avista
Next Steps for Avista • DER Potential Assessment • Engage with identified large fleet customers directly and refine transportation electrification load forecast • Include findings from the study in the load forecast • Include results in the 2025-2026 System Assessment study plan • Distribution Plann
Slide 37: Thank You.
~ AEG APPLIED ENERGY GROUP