Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc · NYSE:AHT
Ashford Hospitality Trust — Investor Presentation (October 2012)
27 slides from Ashford Hospitality Trust's investor presentation, Oct 16, 2012
Slide 1: Company Presentation October 2012
YN WY Company Presentation October 2012
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor In keeping with the SEC’s “Safe Harbor” guidelines, certain statements made during this presentation could be considered forward-looking and subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause results to differ materially from those projected. When we use the words “will likely r
Slide 3: Economic & Industry Overview
Economic & Industry Overview
Slide 4: Real GDP Growth
-20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Real GDP Growth % 4 2011 Real GDP Growth: 1.7% Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce: BEA&Historical Statistics of the United States: - Cambridge
Slide 5: Hotel Demand Driven by Economy
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Real GDP Growth Hotel Demand Growth Hotel Demand Driven by Economy Source: Smith Travel Research & U.S. Dept. of Commerce: BEA Hotel Demand Growth % vs. Real GDP Growth 5 R-squared = 0.61
Slide 6: U.S. Demand Will Outpace Supply
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Y ea r- o v e r- Y ea r % G ro w th Supply Growth Demand Growth U.S. Demand Will Outpace Supply 6 PKF Forecast Source: Smith Travel Research & PKF
Slide 7: Real RevPAR is Cyclical
Real RevPAR is Cyclical Source: Smith Travel Research & U.S. Dept. of Labor: BLS Seasonally-Adjusted Real RevPAR (2012$, Trailing 3-Mo Average) 7 $52 $54 $56 $58 $60 $62 $64 $66 $68 $70 $72 $74
Slide 8: RevPAR Forecast - PKF
7.9% 6.1% -2.0% -16.7% 5.4% 8.2% 5.8% 6.6% 7.8% 5.9% 2.9% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Historical RevPAR Growth Forecasted RevPAR Growth RevPAR Forecast - PKF Source: Smith Travel Research & PKF 8 5-Year RevPAR Growth CAGR: 5.
Slide 9: Potential Industry EBITDA Growth Rates
Potential Industry EBITDA Growth Rates 9 − With strong potential RevPAR gains, those companies with reasonable flow-throughs could experience significant EBITDA growth − PKF estimates 5-year cumulative EBITDA growth of about 55%* *Based on PKF RevPAR/ADR/Occupancy projections and EBITDA growth resul
Slide 10: Company Highlights
Company Highlights
Slide 11: Company Snapshot
Company Snapshot 11 Portfolio Statistics Total Enterprise Value $4.0 B Total Gross Assets $5.0 B Peer Comparison 2nd Largest # of Hotels 124 # of Owned Rooms 26,195 # of Property Managers 5 $ ADR $136.47 $ RevPAR $101.09 RevPAR Growth % 4.7% Financial Statistics Recent Share Price $8.32 (10/11/12) #
Slide 12: Portfolio Overview
Portfolio Overview 12 1% 59% 3% 37% Chain Scale Luxury Upper Upscale Upper Midscale Upscale 31% 3% 5% 53% 4% 3% Brand Family Hilton Hyatt Starwood Marriott IHG Independent 24% 4% 23% 49% Segmentation Group Contract Leisure Transient Corporate Transient (as a % of 2Q 2012 TTM EBITDA) 73% 17% 10% MSA
Slide 13: Asset Management Outperformance
Asset Management Outperformance 13 − Ashford consistently beats peers in hotel EBITDA flow throughs Peers include: BEE, CHSP, DRH, FCH, HST, HT, LHO, PEB, SHO Source: Company Filings 39% 8% 49% 41% 50% 51% 51% 37% 53% 104% 63% 62% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD Q2 2012 Pee
Slide 14: Attractive Dividend Yield & Coverage
Attractive Dividend Yield & Coverage 14 − Ashford has both a high dividend yield and strong dividend coverage 5.8% 5.3% 5.0% 4.4% 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 2.1% 1.5% - - - 1.6x 3.8x 1.6x 1.6x 2.2x 3.4x 2.6x 2.4x 4.4x - 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% CLDT AHT HT
Slide 15: Compelling Valuation
Compelling Valuation 15 − Ashford is currently trading below the peer average on an EBITDA multiple and price per key basis Source: Company filings, SNL, Street research & First Call $397 $377 $354 $265 $254 $246 $238 $240 $231 $154 $144 $143 0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x 12.0x 14.0x 16.0x $- $50 $
Slide 16: Total Shareholder Return
53% 8% 51% 65% -47% -41% -21% -10% 27% 18% -9% 146% 368% 0% -9% 19% 37% 45% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 1-Yr 2-Yr 3-Yr 4-Yr 5-Yr 6-Yr 7-Yr 8-Yr 9-yr Peer Avg. AHT Total Shareholder Return 16 Peer average includes: BEE, CHSP, CLDT, DRH, FCH, HST, HT, LHO, PEB, SHO Trailing To
Slide 17: Most Highly-Aligned Management
Most Highly-Aligned Management 17 21% 15% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% AHT HT CLDT FCH HST CHSP SHO DRH BEE LHO PEB Insider ownership % Source: Company Filings
Slide 18: Upcoming Maturities & Debt Yields
Upcoming Maturities & Debt Yields 18 − Upcoming maturities through 2014 include: − TTM June 2012 weighted average debt yields on these maturities are 13.6% Aareal Torrey Pines / Capital Hilton $143.7M Matures Aug 2013 13.5% TTM Debt Yield Highland Cigna Loans $101.4M Matures Jan-Apr 2013 17.2% TTM D
Slide 19: Available Liquidity
Available Liquidity 19 Available Liquidity Undrawn $165m credit facility $139m of unrestricted cash at end of Q2 ‘12 Preferred equity ATM facility Common equity ATM facility Potential refinancing proceeds Excess cash flow
Slide 20: Safety & Optionality
Safety & Optionality 20 • Approximately 100-120% of equity value • ~$2.0 billion of debt • Positive cash flow • Weighted average maturity of 3.6 years • All debt non-recourse Portfolio A: Safety • Approximately 0-(20)% of equity value • $1.0 to $1.2 billion of debt • Positive cash flow • Weighted av
Slide 21: Highland Hospitality Update
& Highland Hospitality Update
Slide 22: Highland Opportunities
Highland Opportunities 22 Franchise properties • Looking for opportunities to create long-term value and operational efficiency through Remington management • Hilton Back Bay, Hyatt Windwatch, Courtyard Savannah & Residence Inn Tampa Operating flow throughs • Right-sizing the cost structure • Bringi
Slide 23: Highland Year One EBITDA Flows
Highland Year One EBITDA Flows 23 32.7% 83.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% One Year Pre-Takeover One Year Post-Takeover
Slide 24: Highland NOI Exceeds Underwriting
Highland NOI Exceeds Underwriting 24 $79 $82 $86 $88 $91 $93 $90 $70 $75 $80 $85 $90 $95 Mar 2011 TTM Jun 2011 TTM Sep 2011 TTM Dec 2011 TTM Mar 2012 TTM Jun 2012 TTM U/W for Jun 2012 NOI $ (in m il lion s )
Slide 25: Next Steps for Ashford
ke Next Steps for Ashford
Slide 26: Next Steps for Ashford
• Focus on growing Highland revenues • Growing EBITDA is best way to create shareholder value Intense operational focus to grow EBITDA • Build cash balance in preparation for next downturn Grow cash balance • Must be long-term accretive to stock price • Franchised, full-service preferred • Domestic
Slide 27: YN WY
YN WY Company Presentation October 2012
Ashford Hospitality Trust — Investor Presentation (October 2012) on 6ix