Elia Group Sa/nv · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group Sa/nv — Investor Presentation (September 2023)
86 slides from Elia Group Sa/nv's investor presentation, Sep 13, 2023
Slide 1: Plenary meeting of the Elia Users' Group
Users’ Group Plenary meeting of the Elia Users’ Group Wednesday, September 13
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of reports 7 March and 5 May 6. Feedback Working Groups 6.1. WG Belgian Grid 2. Project Grid User flex for congestion management 6.2. WG Balancing 3. Adequacy & Flexibility study – summary 6.3. WG Adequacy & stakeholder feedback 6.4. WG SO&EMD (incl. TF PEZ) 4. Consumer Centricity
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of reports 7 March and 5 May 6. Feedback Working Groups 6.1. WG Belgian Grid 2. Project Grid User flex for congestion management 6.2. WG Balancing 3. Adequacy & Flexibility study – summary 6.3. WG Adequacy & stakeholder feedback 6.4. WG SO&EMD (incl. TF PEZ) 4. Consumer Centricity
Slide 4: Grid User Flexibility for Congestion Management (GUFlex4CM)
Grid User Flexibility for Congestion Management (GUFlex4CM) Users Group Introduction – 13/09/2023 13.09.2023 | A. Weynants, J. Sprooten, S. Stas, K. Sleurs
Slide 5: Agenda: Context, Objectives, Principles, Roadmap
Agenda 1. Context 2. Project Objectives 3. Overarching Principles 4. Project Roadmap GUFlex4CM - Users Group - 13.09.2023 5
Slide 6: 1. Context
lia 1. Context
Slide 7: Decarbonization implies electrification and integration of renewables
The decarbonization of our society implies the electrification of fossil-energized processes and the integration of renewables GUFlex4CM - Users Group - 13.09.2023 7
Slide 8: Impact of electrification on electrical demand and supply
Impact of electrification on electrical demand… …and on supply (vRES, BESS, etc) GUFlex4CM - Users Group - 13.09.2023 8
Slide 9: Newly electrified processes could deliver benefits if operated flexibly
ELECTRIFICATION VS. SYSTEM ADEQUACY Newly electrified processes could deliver important benefits if operated in a flexible manner In our recent Adequacy & Flexibility study, ca. 70% of newly electrified processes were assumed to be flexible at times of scarcity Resulting in an important reductio
Slide 10: Flexible grid connections as a win-win solution
ELECTRIFICATION VS. TRANSMISSION ADEQUACY Flexible grid connections can provide a win-win solution for the grid user and for society Connection studies realized Grid hosting capacity 120 100 # EOS/EDS 80 60 40 20 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023* EOS/EDS grid studies Expon. (EOS/EDS grid st
Slide 11: Flexible grid connections as a win-win solution
ELECTRIFICATION VS. TRANSMISSION ADEQUACY Flexible grid connections can provide a win-win solution for the grid user and for society Two important trade-offs for infrastructure development: 1 What? Grid reinforcement: investing in grid infrastructure “non-wire solutions”, considering for example the
Slide 12: Flexibility – crucial for grid operation and system management
Flexibility – crucial for grid operation and system management • With the increased importance of distributed generation, the electrification of the heat and mobility sectors and the ultimate goal of a net-zero society, consumers will play a key role in the energy sector of tomorrow. • The energy tr
Slide 13: 2. Project Objectives
lia 2. Project Objectives
Slide 14: Project objectives (1/2)
Project objectives (1/2) GUFlex4CM - Users Group - 13.09.2023 14 GU = Grid User
Slide 15: Project objectives (2/2)
Project objectives (2/2) Objective 1: Define the • Clarifying the approach in the interest of society concerning the consideration of flexibility of Grid Users for congestion management in: strategy with regards to the • Grid Planning consideration of Grid User • Connection Contracting • Operational
Slide 16: 3. Overarching Principles
lia 3. Overarching Principles
Slide 17: High Level Goals & Principles
High Level Goals & Principles The grid is developed in order to meet BE and EU objectives of market integration, electrification and renewables integration Other solutions than conventional grid reinforcements (“building grid infrastructure”) are needed for society to successfully realize the energy
Slide 18: What we would like to achieve
What we would like to achieve We want to build a vision supported by the energy community and to develop solutions that integrate Grid User Flexibility for Congestion management from LT System Planning to RT Operations LT Planning & Contracting Operational Planning C2RT & RT Operations Our visio
Slide 19: 4. Project Roadmap
lia 4. Project Roadmap
Slide 20: Balancing incentives 2024
Balancing incentives 2024 Version CREG consultation (ended 28/08/2023) L’incitant a trois objectifs principaux: 1. premièrement, assurer la transparence des activations des installations raccordées avec accès flexible en cas de congestions; 2. deuxièmement, développer une vision et une méthodologie
Slide 21: High-level project roadmap
High-level project roadmap Transparency on EOS study with flexible access and flexibility Jan 1 - Dec 31 activation rules (incl. public consultation) Jan 1 - Dec 31 Short term solution for the connection and operation of flexible storage Advanced indicators on OPEX calculation in the context of Jan
Slide 22: GUFlex4CM ambitions consistent with Congestion Management Transformation Journey
GUFlex4CM ambitions should be realistic & consistent with the ongoing Congestion Management Transformation Journey iCAROS phase 2 iCAROS phase 3 Availability Planning from Y-n till RT, Availability Planning from Y-n till RT, scheduling and RD bidding for scheduling and RD bidding for • TSO-connected
Slide 23: Questions?
lia Questions ?
Slide 24: Thank you.
Thank you.
Slide 25: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of reports 7 March and 5 May 6. Feedback Working Groups 6.1. WG Belgian Grid 2. Project Grid User flex for congestion management 6.2. WG Balancing 3. Adequacy & Flexibility study – summary 6.3. WG Adequacy & stakeholder feedback 6.4. WG SO&EMD (incl. TF PEZ) 4. Consumer Centricity
Slide 26: Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
26 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34
Slide 27: Study based on electricity law requirements and past studies
This study is based on the requirements set in the electricity law and uses the expertise that Elia has developed in its past Adequacy and Flexibility studies APR 2016 JUL 2018 JUN 2019 JUN 2021 JUN 2023 Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 27
Slide 28: The study is available online and was presented in June 2023
The study is available online and was presented end of June 2023 to stakeholders Report content (470 pages) https://elia.group/ADEQFLEX-EN • Executive summary • Introduction • Methodology • Scenarios and data • Adequacy needs assessment • Economic viability assessment • Short term flexibility assess
Slide 29: Three main topics: adequacy, flexibility and economics
This study covers 3 main topics related to adequacy, flexibility and economics The scenarios used in this study are aligned with the most recent figures and ambitions of Belgium and other countries. In addition, a large amount of sensitivities were investigated on European assumptions, Belgian assum
Slide 30: Looking 10 years ahead, simulating 28 countries
We looked 10 years ahead, covering the most important events that will affect the electricity system in the future, simulating 28 countries Electrification (heat, transport, industry) European and coal phase outs targets Main changes that will affect the +2.8 GW Belgian and EU offshore in BE electri
Slide 31: Summary of adequacy results in the EU-SAFE scenario
Summary of adequacy results in the EU-SAFE scenario SUMMARY OF THE GAP IN THE EU-SAFE/CENTRAL SCENARIO * Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 31 * FLEX LTO already agreed upon between the Belgian State and Engie in 2025-26, decreases the need by 1700 MW in 2025-26
Slide 32: Equal attention to short-, medium- and long-term measures
Equal attention must be paid to short-, medium- and long-term measures 2025-2026 Short-Term measures • Flex-LTO of 2 Belgian nuclear units* 2027-2029 Medium-Term measures • Unlocking new flexibility • Prompt realisation of grid infrastructure • Refinement of the CRM mechanism • Managing periods of e
Slide 33: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of reports 7 March and 5 May 6. Feedback Working Groups 6.1. WG Belgian Grid 2. Project Grid User flex for congestion management 6.2. WG Balancing 3. Adequacy & Flexibility study – summary 6.3. WG Adequacy & stakeholder feedback 6.4. WG SO&EMD (incl. TF PEZ) 4. Consumer Centricity
Slide 34: State of Play Consumer Centric Market Design
State of Play Consumer Centric Market Design David Zenner – Head of Customers
Slide 35: On-boarding the consumer is key to unleash the energy transition
On-boarding the consumer in our roadmap to net zero is the key to unleash the energy transition From competition for the meter… …to competition behind the meter Generation follows consumption Demand will follow generation Empowered end-prosumers Generic service model Robust and simple market m
Slide 36: Consumer Centric Market Design to make flexibility seamless
Consumer Centric Market Design to make flexibility seamless Two key features delivering major benefits A decentralized exchange of between consumers A real-time market price to reveal the and many other parties, on & behind the meter true value of flexibility to consumers “Exchange of energy blocks”
Slide 37: Opportunities for grid users
Opportunities for grid users
Slide 38: A tool to split flexible from inflexible load
A tool to split the flexible from the inflexible load, striking a balance between price opportunities and risks Example When the RTP is high (ex. 11:45-12:00), the end-consumer is able to sell electricity to market (V2G) and generate a revenue. He can safely consume his residual load at a fixed cost
Slide 39: How can a consumer benefit from upgraded market features?
How can a consumer benefit from this upgraded market features? Valorization of your own renewable production Sharing your solar energy between different access points or with other grid users (eg. residential area) through an energy community Valorization of your employee's EV flexibility in balanci
Slide 40: New Services available by the end of the year: share your energy
New Services available for you by the end of the year… 1 Share your Between your different sites on the Elia grid energy New Company A Company A Decrease of the grid Decrease of the fees & supply cost supply cost Invest only once to supply several sites! Dimension your own production units on one
Slide 41: New Services available: contract different BRPs
New Services available for you by the end of the year… 2 Contract different BRPs Baseload with limited risk New Valorization of (remaining) production BRP 1 Responsible for the (non-flexible) baseload Company A BRP 3 Valorization on the balancing Responsible for market the valorization of the produc
Slide 42: Evolution of the imbalance price
Evolution of the imbalance price
Slide 43: Supporting the paradigm shift with a real-time price
Supporting the paradigm shift with a real-time price… Flexible assets need a clear signal to determine the right moment to engage flexibility : Explicit activation by System Operator Explicit participation in the system comes with technical and administrative constraints that not all assets can “V
Slide 44: Imbalance price evolving from a penalty to a clear incentive
… an imbalance price evolving from a penalty to a clear incentive for all BRPs The current imbalance tariff is a penalty for the imbalances (in the The future imbalance tariff wrong direction) of BRPs should provide a clear incentive who have the legal and to all BRPs to help balance the physical ob
Slide 45: Inefficient system signals – August 2023
Inefficient system signals – 14 August 2023 Inefficient system oscillations Very negative IP while BE zone is almost balanced very punitive IP (to which BRPs with RES are the most exposed) 45
Slide 46: A good Real Time Price is a clear signal
A good Real Time Price is a clear signal incentivizing safe and efficient market reactions Self- sufficient Anticipating Known market ex-ante reaction Resulting from an Respecting optimization grid between constraints explicit and Etc. implicit flex More during the WG CCMD – 27 September 2023 46
Slide 47: How to operate…
How to operate… 47
Slide 48: Individuals who wish to access services from Elia Group
Individuals who wish to access services from Elia Group… Product Product One minute Access imbalance Consumer End-user service price Data Building blocks & higher SLA Public & free API I’m looking for an Elia Group service Public & free end-service Interconnected entry channels for Elia Group servic
Slide 49: Elia Group services platform screenshots
tst-traxes.io, SharePoint David i Niew [Elia Intranet Vv" Pulse startpagina EB Ceepitransattor J Lol- wer -FTR © GoogIe ta CREG - Nettarieven, BH 101 - wer evec — J A Peer to Peer xcess Energy to Offtake he service "Excess Energy to fftake" offers the possibility fora onsumer to share his excess ene
Slide 50: MPx: expose your flexible assets directly on electricity markets
MPx… a way to expose your flexible assets directly on electricity markets Flexibly available or usable energy quantities Advantages Your processes Grid user • Reduced intermediation allowing more benefits for Advantages the grid users • Increase efficiency through facilitated market access Electrici
Slide 51: MPx builds on the Consumer Centric Market Design
MPX is building on the possibilities enabled by the Consumer Centric Market Design Contracting different BRPs by making use of Give the right incentive and benefit from “Exchange of energy blocks” reactive balancing (real-time price) & MPx allows to expose flexible assets (via the “multiple BRP” ser
Slide 52: Key hurdles for participation to the power exchanges today
Key hurdles* for participation to the power exchanges today FINANCIAL OPERATIONAL Operational setup : Implementation of Current minimum financial guarantee BRP messaging systems and required by Elia for the BRP status not communication protocols ELIA fit for small players Operational obligatio
Slide 53: Exciting times
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Slide 54: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of reports 7 March and 5 May 6. Feedback Working Groups 6.1. WG Belgian Grid 2. Project Grid User flex for congestion management 6.2. WG Balancing 3. Adequacy & Flexibility study – summary 6.3. WG Adequacy & stakeholder feedback 6.4. WG SO&EMD (incl. TF PEZ) 4. Consumer Centricity
Slide 55: Need for flexibility participation in market
Need for flexibility participation in market
Slide 56: Agenda
Agenda – Participation of flexible assets in market: use cases & solutions – For discussion: proposal for recommendation from Users Group Presentation title 56
Slide 57: WG BAL 16/5: system indicators showing incompressibility on 9/4
WG BAL 16/5: system indicators showing significant incompressibility on 9/4 – System imbalance (SI) was long most of daylight hours (08:00 17.00) – Peak at almost 1GW in the afternoon. – Moreover, ACE peaks at 350MW in the afternoon during some QHs – Imbalance price down to -400€/MWh during severa
Slide 58: Day-Ahead solar forecast error as key driver on 9/4
WG BAL 16/5: Day-Ahead solar forecast error as key driver on 9/4 – DA Solar forecast has been the key driver of the system imbalance – Forecast error of more than 1,3GW in DA compared to the measurement. – Even the most recent forecast (=RT-1h) shows an underestimation of 500MW. – Wind forecast is n
Slide 59: A few examples indicating incompressibility
WG BAL 16/5: a few examples indicating incompressibility Presentation title 59
Slide 60: Neighboring countries faced a similar situation on 9/4
WG BAL 16/5: also neighboring countries were confronted with a similar situation on 9/4 – Day-Ahead Market Coupling resulted in Belgium being in import while neighbouring countries were in export. – In real-time the case was nevertheless further exacerbated by the fact that also in neighbouring coun
Slide 61: Incompressibility: future outlook and solution
Incompressibility: future outlook and solution – Estimated increase of 880 MWp of PV p.a. until 2034 – Large share of residential PV which –today- does not react to price signals and hence continues to feed in even in case of excess energy in the system – Cumulative capacity of 14 GW of PV expected
Slide 62: Active participation of flexible assets is important for SoS and balancing
Active participation of flexible assets in the market is important for SoS and balancing the system SUMMARY OF THE GAP IN THE EU-SAFE/CENTRAL SCENARIO Adequacy & Flexibility study 2024-34 62
Slide 63: Active participation of flexible assets is important for SoS and balancing
Active participation of flexible assets in the market is important for SoS and balancing the system 2nd wave of offshore generation By 2034, the Belgian system will require • 6 - 7 GW of flexibility in the last hours before real time, • of which almost 3 GW needs to be able to react in the last quar
Slide 64: Assumptions on flexible assets in the ADFLEX study
Assumptions on flexible assets in the ADFLEX study 64
Slide 65: Need for flexible assets to participate in market
Need for flexible assets to participate in market – The further integration of PV and wind (intermittent renewables) in the system will require: – Flexible demand to consume ‘more’ during periods of high solar (intermittent renewable) infeed (and vice versa, to consume less in case of low renewables
Slide 66: Agenda
Agenda – Participation of flexible assets in market: use cases & solutions – For discussion: proposal for recommendation from Users Group 66
Slide 67: For discussion: opportunity for recommendation endorsed by Users Group
For discussion: opportunity for recommendation endorsed by Users Group Goal of such recommendation would be to accelerate the development of flexibility to support the next steps in the energy transition by removing important barriers Such recommendation could a.o. take following points into conside
Slide 68: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of reports 7 March and 5 May 6. Feedback Working Groups 6.1. WG Belgian Grid 2. Project Grid User flex for congestion management 6.2. WG Balancing 3. Adequacy & Flexibility study – summary 6.3. WG Adequacy & stakeholder feedback 6.4. WG SO&EMD (incl. TF PEZ) 4. Consumer Centricity
Slide 69: Highlights WG Belgian Grid
Highlights WG Belgian Grid Since last plenary meeting: two meetings: 17/05 & 05/09 Main topics 1. Tariff proposal 2024-2027: results of public consultation 2. Energy View Point 3. Public consultation on concept note on connections with flexible access to the federal transmission grid 4. Access contr
Slide 70: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of reports 7 March and 5 May 6. Feedback Working Groups 6.1. WG Belgian Grid 2. Project Grid User flex for congestion management 6.2. WG Balancing 3. Adequacy & Flexibility study – summary 6.3. WG Adequacy & stakeholder feedback 6.4. WG SO&EMD (incl. TF PEZ) 4. Consumer Centricity
Slide 71: Feedback WG Balancing
Feedback WG Balancing
Slide 72: Feedback WG Balancing 29/06 (1)
Feedback WG Balancing 29/06 (1) – EU & BE Balancing Program Update – Elia reminded the timing of the different Public Consultations (T&C mFRR, T&C BRP, Balancing Rules) – Elia explains how it will need to adapt its FRR activation strategy after connection to the EU MARI platform, in line with the ti
Slide 73: WG Balancing 29/06 (2)
WG Balancing 29/06 (2) – Winter Plan Balancing – Elia proposed to introduce a more robust, general framework to ensure the availability of sufficient mFRR in case of tight market conditions or unavailability (risk) of sharing agreements by neighboring TSOs. The measures are based on technical trigge
Slide 74: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of reports 7 March and 5 May 6. Feedback Working Groups 6.1. WG Belgian Grid 2. Project Grid User flex for congestion management 6.2. WG Balancing 3. Adequacy & Flexibility study – summary 6.3. WG Adequacy & stakeholder feedback 6.4. WG SO&EMD (incl. TF PEZ) 4. Consumer Centricity
Slide 75: Feedback WG Adequacy
Feedback WG Adequacy
Slide 76: WG Adequacy – Overview of last Meetings
WG Adequacy – Overview of last Meetings WG Update on the timing of design topics 16/06/2023 Reactions to the Public Consultation on the Scenarios for #20 the CRM Parameter Calculation WG 29/06/2023 Presentation of the Adequacy & Flexibility Study 2023 #21 WG Cost of Capacity Study [Entras] 25/08/202
Slide 77: Main Topics from the Last Meetings
Main Topics from the Last Meetings
Slide 78: Main Topics
Main Topics Public consultation on Presentations of several The Cabinet of the Renotification of the the scenarios and data to studies regarding the Minister of Energy CRM be used for the Y-4 2028- parameters of the CRM introduced additional 2029 and Y-1 2025-2026 auctions changes to the CRM / CRM a
Slide 79: Main Topics
Main Topics • Following the publication of the CRM Functioning Rules, a number of design improvements will be discussed in the Working Group Adequacy • Elia presented a timeline for the discussion • A first design workshop took place with interested parties to deep-dive on a number of evolutions Eli
Slide 80: Main Topics
Main Topics • Based on a EU decree, every CRM should allow for Cross-Border participation • Elia is working on the Cross- Border CRM with neighbouring countries – France, Germany & the Netherlands • First Cross-Border participation in the Belgian CRM in Delivery Period 2025-26 • The proposed timelin
Slide 81: Main Topics
Main Topics • Launch of 2023 CRM Auction Operations • The prequalification process for the 2023 CRM auction is running it’s course • More information, documents & template are on the CRM page Elia’s website • In June, the CRM secondary market launched • Going forward, market parties are able to noti
Slide 82: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of reports 7 March and 5 May 6. Feedback Working Groups 6.1. WG Belgian Grid 2. Project Grid User flex for congestion management 6.2. WG Balancing 3. Adequacy & Flexibility study – summary 6.3. WG Adequacy & stakeholder feedback 6.4. WG SO&EMD (incl. TF PEZ) 4. Consumer Centricity
Slide 83: Highlights WG EMD-SO (Q3 2023)
Highlights WG EMD-SO (Q3 2023) European Market Design Core Intraday Capacity Calculation 17th of July dedicated workshop organized about summer consultation of ACER on the 2nd IDCCM amendment (escalation by Core NRAs to ACER) Shared insights of Elia and discussion held with CREG and Belgian mark
Slide 84: Task Force Princess Elisabeth Zone (PEZ)
Task Force Princess Elisabeth Zone (PEZ) Overview of Task Force PEZ and workshop Today 2022 2023 2024 PEZ tender criteria (SPF) Tender PEZ phase I 01/04 24/06 16/09 14/10 12/12 10/01 06/02 17/03 24/03 05/05 19/10 April - TBD Q4 2024 Public consultation Call for feedback Call for feedback Call for fe
Slide 85: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval of reports 7 March and 5 May 6. Feedback Working Groups 6.1. WG Belgian Grid 2. Project Grid User flex for congestion management 6.2. WG Balancing 3. Adequacy & Flexibility study – summary 6.3. WG Adequacy & stakeholder feedback 6.4. WG SO&EMD (incl. TF PEZ) 4. Consumer Centricity
Slide 86: Plenary meetings 2024
Plenary meetings 2024 Friday, 1 March – PM Monday, 10 June – PM Monday, 23 September – PM Monday, 25 November – PM 86