Greenfire Resources Ltd. · TSX:GFR
Greenfire Resources — Investor Presentation (March 2024)
35 slides from Greenfire Resources's investor presentation, March 2024
Slide 1: Redefining Oil Sands Expectations
Redefining Oil Sands Expectations Corporate Presentation March 2024 NYSE & TSX: GFR
Slide 2: Corporate Snapshot
CORPORATE SNAPSHOT Greenfire is an intermediate, lower-cost and growth-oriented oil sands producer focused on the sustainable development of its Tier-1 assets in Western Canada using steam assisted gravity drainage (“SAGD”) Key Company & Capital Structure Details Hangingstone Facilities: Tier-1 Rese
Slide 3: Asset & Positioning Overview
ASSET & POSITIONING OVERVIEW Hangingstone Facilities Concentrated Tier-1 oil sands resource with two producing SAGD assets Athabasca Region, Northern Alberta, Canada and expandable pipeline infrastructure in place 50 km south of Fort McMurray Company Profile Two Producing SAGD Assets • Intermediate
Slide 4: Corporate Strategy & Reserves Overview
CORPORATE STRATEGY & RESERVES OVERVIEW Greenfire’s strategy is to implement industry proven SAGD optimization techniques to maximize the value of its currently underdeveloped Tier-1 SAGD assets • Acquired conservatively operated SAGD assets with ample opportunities for capital-efficient production g
Slide 5: 2024 Outlook
2024 OUTLOOK Targeting Capital Efficient Production Growth and Potential Meaningful Incremental Free Cash Flow Generation to Support Accelerated Debt Repayment 22,000 to 25,000 bbls/d 25% to 40% $70 to $90 million Forecasted 2024 Annual 2024 Annual Production Planned Capital Expenditure Production R
Slide 6: Free Cash Flow, Heavy Oil & Valuation Upside Potential
FREE CASH FLOW, HEAVY OIL & VALUATION UPSIDE POTENTIAL 2024 Adjusted Hangingstone Facilities FCF Generation Variable Range EBITDA Sensitivity(1) • Greenfire currently has a lower capital expenditure profile due to a multi- Bitumen Production +/- 1,000 bbls/d +/- $19 mm year inventory of capital effi
Slide 7: Why Own Greenfire Resources
WHY OWN GREENFIRE RESOURCES Corporate Strategy and Differentiation Slides Intermediate Pure Play Producer with a Differentiated Tier-1 Oil Sands Reservoir 9-11 Two Producing SAGD Facilities with Expandable Pipeline Infrastructure in Place 12-15 Industry Proven and Capital Efficient Production Growth
Slide 8: Corporate Strategy and Differentiation
CORPORATE STRATEGY AND DIFFERENTIATION
Slide 9: Attributes of a Tier-1 SAGD Reservoir
PURE PLAY PRODUCER WITH A DIFFERENTIATED TIER 1 RESERVOIR ATTRIBUTES OF A TIER-1 SAGD RESERVOIR • Tier-1 SAGD reservoirs have no top Tier-1 Reservoir gas, bottom water or lean zones • No Top Gas • No Lean Zones o These “thief zones” provide an • No Bottom Water unwanted outlet for steam and Tier 2 &
Slide 10: Productivity & Recovery Benefits of a Tier-1 SAGD Reservoir
PURE PLAY PRODUCER WITH A DIFFERENTIATED TIER 1 RESERVOIR PRODUCTIVITY & RECOVERY BENEFITS OF A TIER-1 SAGD RESERVOIR Tier-1 SAGD reservoirs with natural lift typically support higher expected well productivity & ultimate resource recovery Tier-1 vs. Other SAGD with a Downhole Pump SAGD Well Bitumen
Slide 11: Structural Cost Advantages of a Tier-1 SAGD Reservoir
PURE PLAY PRODUCER WITH A DIFFERENTIATED TIER 1 RESERVOIR STRUCTURAL COST ADVANTAGES OF A TIER-1 SAGD RESERVOIR Illustrative estimated savings at Greenfire’s Hangingstone Facilities from natural lift relative to using downhole pumps Units Hangingstone Facilities - Downhole Pump Count Units • An esti
Slide 12: Two Producing SAGD Facilities & Expandable Infrastructure
TWO PRODUCING SAGD FACILITIES & EXPANDABLE INFRASTRUCTURE HANGINGSTONE FACILITIES Producing SAGD Facilities DEMO ASSET • The capital expenditure and project risk profile for SAGD is primarily front loaded to build major DEMO CPF processing facilities and infrastructure • Greenfire currently has two
Slide 13: Expansion Asset
TWO PRODUCING SAGD FACILITIES & EXPANDABLE INFRASTRUCTURE EXPANSION ASSET Quarterly Production Since Constructed(4)(5) 100% Capacity: 35 mbbls/d(1) (75% Greenfire) 35 Legacy Operator Greenfire 100% WI Production 30 75% WI Capacity: 26.3 mbbls/d 25 (mbbl/d) 20 • Greenfire drilled the first Refill wel
Slide 14: Demo Asset
TWO PRODUCING SAGD FACILITIES & EXPANDABLE INFRASTRUCTURE DEMO ASSET Quarterly Production Since SAGD Start-up(2) Capacity: 7.5 mbbls/d(1) (100% Greenfire) 9 Legacy Operator 8 Legacy Operator • Over nearly two decades, production declines at the Production (mbbl/d) 7 Greenfire 6 Demo Asset have remai
Slide 15: Expandable Regional Infrastructure & Optionality
TWO PRODUCING SAGD FACILITIES & EXPANDABLE INFRASTRUCTURE EXPANDABLE REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE & OPTIONALITY Hangingstone Facilities are connected to major pipeline infrastructure systems without outsized take-or-pay obligations Diluted Bitumen Diluent Transportation Transportation • Edmonton to the •
Slide 16: 2024 Outlook & Development Plan
CAPITAL EFFICIENT PRODUCTION GROWTH PLAN 2024 OUTLOOK & DEVELOPMENT PLAN Refill drilling program targeting further capital efficient production growth; select infrastructure investment to support higher sustained production rates 2024 Outlook Drilling Program Production Annual Production (bbls/d) 22
Slide 17: Expansion Asset - Restoring Higher Reservoir Pressure
CAPITAL EFFICIENT PRODUCTION GROWTH PLAN EXPANSION ASSET - RESTORING HIGHER RESERVOIR PRESSURE Restoring higher reservoir pressure is expected to deliver incremental production Demo Asset • Industry has proven the ability to increase SAGD 2019 Reservoir Re-pressurization Bottom Hole Pressure and Pro
Slide 18: Comparison of SAGD Incremental Recovery Wells
CAPITAL EFFICIENT PRODUCTION GROWTH PLAN COMPARISON OF SAGD INCREMENTAL RECOVERY WELLS Enhancing the total bitumen recovery of existing well pairs with marginal incremental capital expenditure and minimal geological risk Infill Producer Wells: • An infill producer well is drilled between two existin
Slide 19: Extended Reach Refill – Productivity & Cost Advantages
CAPITAL EFFICIENT PRODUCTION GROWTH PLAN EXTENDED REACH REFILL – PRODUCTIVITY & COST ADVANTAGES Further acceleration of production and incremental bitumen recovery; additional cost efficiencies anticipated with reduced future well count Extended Reach Refill Producer Wells: • A single Refill produce
Slide 20: Industry Realizing Economic Benefits from Refill Wells
CAPITAL EFFICIENT PRODUCTION GROWTH PLAN INDUSTRY REALIZING ECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM REFILL WELLS Capital efficiency comparison of primary, infill & Refill SAGD producer wells Wells Spud Prior to 2022 Wells Spud in 2022 & 2023 First 12 Month Capital Efficiency ($/bbl)(1) Between one quarter and one th
Slide 21: Industry Productivity Track Record with Refill Wells
CAPITAL EFFICIENT PRODUCTION GROWTH PLAN INDUSTRY PRODUCTIVITY TRACK RECORD WITH REFILL WELLS 24-month productivity comparison of primary, infill & Refill SAGD producer wells Company Analysis By Well Type Primary Infill Refill Avg. Well Profile (By Type) Refill wells outperform infill wells (First 2
Slide 22: Industry Refill Well Productivity Improvements
CAPITAL EFFICIENT PRODUCTION GROWTH PLAN INDUSTRY REFILL WELL PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS Initial 12-month productivity comparison of primary, infill & Refill SAGD producer wells since 2010 First 12 Months Average Production Rate by Type Primary Infill Refill Refill wells have shown consistent and …wi
Slide 23: Continuing Canadian Heavy Oil Re-Rating
STRONG FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION + MATERIAL EXPOSURE TO CANADIAN HEAVY OIL PRICES CONTINUING CANADIAN HEAVY OIL RE-RATING Direct access to global demand and renewed spare pipeline takeaway capacity in Western Canada could result in a potential re-rating of the Canadian heavy oil barrel • Trans Mount
Slide 24: North American Heavy Oil Pipelines & Markets
STRONG FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION + MATERIAL EXPOSURE TO CANADIAN HEAVY OIL PRICES NORTH AMERICAN HEAVY OIL PIPELINES & MARKETS Canada Heavy Oil Exports to U.S. (mmbbl/d) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5 U.S. Heavy Oil Imports by Country (mmbbl/d) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
Slide 25: Strategic Priorities for Free Cash Flow
STRATEGIC PRIORITIES – GROWTH, DEBT REDUCTION AND FUTURE SHAREHOLDER RETURNS STRATEGIC PRIORITIES FOR FREE CASH FLOW 1. Production Growth & Debt Reduction 3. Additional Longer-term Growth • Greenfire believes that accelerated debt repayment • The Company plans to evaluate potential can be most effec
Slide 26: Additional Strategic Considerations & Appendix
ADDITIONAL STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS & APPENDIX
Slide 27: Methodical Approach to Commodity Risk Management
METHODICAL APPROACH TO COMMODITY RISK MANAGEMENT PRUDENT WTI RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAM 2024 Outlook supported by a robust WTI risk management program; Capital Expenditure range forecasted to be funded from operations at materially lower WTI pricing • 2024 hedging program includes 11,500 bbls/d of WTI
Slide 28: Commitment to Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY COMMITMENT TO SUSTAINABILITY Greenfire’s production growth and optimizations are targeting greater operational efficiencies ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY PROGRAM Committed to Water Recycling Incremental Production Targeting Significant investments in infrastructure to maximize Improved
Slide 29: Corporate Capitalization
CAPITALIZATION DETAILS CORPORATE CAPITALIZATION Equity Capitalization (millions of GFR shares) STRONG BALANCE SHEET Market Capitalization(1) $480 million & LIQUIDITY POSITION Common Shares Outstanding(1) 68.6 Warrants @ US$11.50/sh 7.5 • ~C$110 MM Cash and Equivalents Performance Warrants @ C$3.15/s
Slide 30: Select Historical Financials - FY 2022 & FY 2023
SELECT HISTORICAL FINANCIAL DATA SELECT HISTORICAL FINANCIALS - FY 2022 & FY 2023 12 Months Ended, 12 Months Ended, December 31, 2022 December 31, 2023 WTI ($US/bbl) $94 $78 WCS Differential ($US/bbl) ($18) ($19) FX (C$/US$) 1.30 1.35 Consolidated Production (mbbl/d) 20.5 17.3 C$ MM C$/bbl(1) C$ MM
Slide 31: Independent Reserves – Canadian Standards
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, RESERVES DETAILS AND ESG INDEPENDENT RESERVES – CANADIAN STANDARDS 2023 year-end NI 51-101 compliant reserves • McDaniel and Associates prepared independent reserves evaluations for Hangingstone Expansion and Demo in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Dis
Slide 32: Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD)
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, RESERVES DETAILS AND ESG STEAM ASSISTED GRAVITY DRAINAGE (“SAGD”) Enhanced oil extraction method where bitumen is heated and recovered from the ground, leaving most residual solids behind SAGD In-situ Oil Sands Extraction • ~80% of Alberta's bitumen is too deep for mining and
Slide 33: Canadian Energy Environmental Leadership
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, RESERVES DETAILS AND ESG CANADIAN ENERGY ENVIRONMENTAL LEADERSHIP Top Gas Flaring Countries vs. Canada1 • Canada places #1 when independently ranked vs. top reserve holding countries on governance, social progress and environmental performance • Alberta’s energy sector has vi
Slide 34: Disclaimer and Advisories
DISCLAIMER AND ADVISORIES This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements provide certainty on cost structure and service availability; the health, safety and environmental risks; commodity price and exchange within the meaning of the United States federal securities laws and expect
Slide 35: Specified Financial and Non-GAAP Measures
SPECIFIED FINANCIAL AND NON-GAAP MEASURES The Company refers to certain financial measures in this presentation that do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and, therefore, are considered Specified Financial Measures. While these measures are commonly used in the oil and natural gas in
Greenfire Resources — Investor Presentation (March 2024) on 6ix