Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s. · BIST:TUPRS
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s — Tüpraş — Q1 2020 Earnings Presentation
31 slides from Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s's earnings presentation, May 21, 2020
Slide 1: Q1 2020 Earnings Presentation
Q1 2020 Earnings Presentation 21 May 2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in und
Slide 3: Q1 2020 Key Market Highlights
Q1 2020 Key Market Highlights Mid-distillate and HSFO cracks performed weaker Sharp decline in Brent in Q1 2020 Global Oil Market 90 Crack margins compared to Q1 2019, $/bbl Q1 2019 Ave. Q1 2020 Ave. 63.2 $/bbl 50.3 $/bbl 75 Diesel Jet Fuel -4.1 -5.7 60 45 Gasoline HS Fuel Oil 30 +2.4 -9.7 15 02/01/
Slide 4: Q1 2020 Tüpraş Highlights
Q1 2020 Tüpraş Highlights Sharp drop in Brent price is the lead Being local helps in elevated freight Widening trend in differentials factor behind weak results cost environment continues 100 2,500 80 2,000 3.5 0 60 1,500 3.0 -1 40 1,000 20 500 2.5 -2 0 0 2.0 -3 -20 -500 -40 -1,000 1.5 -4 -60 -1,500
Slide 5: Market
Market Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 6: Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) in 2016 - 2020
Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) in 2016 - 2020 Covid-19 impact on crack margins has started to be visible for jet and gasoline in late Q1 2020. 2020 2019 2016-2020 Min - Max Diesel Jet Fuel Weak demand on the Severe drop in global 15.6 - back of slowing global 16.1 - aviation activity due
Slide 7: Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl)
Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl) In Q1 2020, differentials widened compared to Q4 2019 on the back of higher supply against weaker demand and IMO driven feedstock shift to lighter crude 2 0 0 -2 Arab Heavy -4 Basrah Heavy Kirkuk -6 Kuwait Ural -8 Average* Iran OPEC+ Cut IMO Sanctions
Slide 8: Operations
Operations Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 9: Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume • We produced 6.0 mn tons in Q1 2020 • Capacity utilization for Q1 2020 was 85% with much higher white product yield at 86%. Quarterly Production (Million Tons) Capacity Utilization (%) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Tot
Slide 10: Sales in Q1 (Million Tons)
Sales in Q1 (Million Tons) Tüpraş generated 6.2 million tons of sales in Q1 2020. Total Sales Domestic Sales of Selected Products Domestic Sales Exports Diesel Jet Fuel Gasoline Bitumen 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.2 6.2 1.8 2.3 2.1 0.3 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.
Slide 11: Financials
Financials Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 12: Tüpraş Net Margin and Med Complex Margin Comparison ($/bbl)
Tüpraş Net Margin and Med Complex Margin Comparison ($/bbl) Q1 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin • Inventory loss and weaker crack margin environment were the main factors behind the decrease in Tüpraş net refining margin 8.7 compared to Q1 2019. • Med margin was higher than Tüpraş net 5.0 refining marg
Slide 13: Income Statement (Million TL)
Income Statement (Million TL) EBITDA realized as -1.3 billion TL in Q1 2020 Q1 Q1 Million TL % 2020 2019 Net Sales 16,940 20,708 -18% COGS -17,849 -19,717 9% Gross Profit -909 991 -192% Operating Expenses -458 -373 -23% Income/Loss from other operations -349 -390 10% Operating Profit -1,716 228 -852
Slide 14: Q1 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2019-2020)
Q1 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2019-2020) Decline in Profit Before Tax was driven by inventory loss due to sharp drop in Brent Price. Million TL 21/05/2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 14 Earnings Presentation
Slide 15: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights EBITDA (mn TL) Net Income¹ (mn TL) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 8,908 3,812 3,713 1,887 493 5,882 1,793 992 1,766 1,237 3,778 4,039 3,396 542 1,528 738 803 1,457 526 1,505 956 581 1,027 186 1,542 2,210 331 869 870 867 1,495 79 378 688 1,575 -375 1,033 851 -155 335 -1,291 -2,265 -1,29
Slide 16: Balance Sheet Analysis (Billion TL)
Balance Sheet Analysis (Billion TL) Net Debt Redemption Schedule (Billion TL) bn TL bn $ In Billion TL In Billion $ TL Hard Currency 15 5 12.2 8.1 12.0 12 10.6 10.1 4 6.5 8.7 8.4 9 3 4.8 6.1 6.2 6 2 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 3 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.5 1 1.4 0.2 0 0 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
Slide 17: FX Exposure Management (31 March 2020)
FX Exposure Management (31 March 2020) Consolidated Hard Consolidated Hard Currency Assets Currency Liabilities Million $ Payables & Other Cash Liabilities 681 981 Receivables & Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX Other Assets ST Financial Loans policies to mitigate currency risks 94 729 • RUP: 204
Slide 18: Outlook for 2020
Outlook for 2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 19: Q1 2020 Results
Q1 2020 Results Capacity Utilization (%) Q1 84.6 84.6 % total capacity 2020 utilization in Q1 2020 Refining Margins ($/bbl) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Med Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Med FY Tüpraş FY Operationals Exp Target Q1 FY Target 6.2 mn tons of sales and 1.8 6.0 m tons of Q1 2020 24 25 production in Q1 2
Slide 20: 2020 Refinery Maintenance Schedule
2020 Refinery Maintenance Schedule Refinery Unit Quarter Duration (weeks) Status Batman Plt 100/1100 Crude Oil & Vacuum Q1 10-12 Completed U-100 Crude Q1 9* Completed U-4000 FCC Q4 6 U-9200 CCR Q1 3 Completed İzmir U-9200 CCR Q4 7 Postponed to 2021 U-9600 Isomerization Q4 8 Postponed to 2021 U-9900
Slide 21: 2020 Expectations
2020 Expectations(*) Med Complex Refining Margin 1.0-2.0 $/bbl • Ural-Brent differential widening compared to 2019 • Weak outlook for jet fuel and gasoline Tüpraş Net Refining Margin 3.0-4.0 $/bbl • Weak outlook for jet fuel and gasoline cracks • Resilient diesel and strong HSFO cracks • Heavy crude
Slide 22: Appendix
Appendix 21/05/2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 22 Earnings Presentation
Slide 23: Turkish Market, Jan-Feb 2019/20 (Million tons)
Turkish Market, Jan-Feb 2019/20 (Million tons) Million Tons Diesel ¹Jet Fuel 4.0 2.0 +7.7% +0.2% 3.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 3.29 3.55 1.0 0.5 0.66 0.66 0.0 0.0 2019 2020 2019 2020 Gasoline ²Fuel Oil 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 +7.3% 0.6 -34.8% 0.5 0.3 0.34 0.36 0.11 0.07 0.0 0.0 2019 2020 2019 2020 ¹Transit flight consump
Slide 24: OPET
OPET Opet has 1,693 fuel stations as of March 2020. Opet Sunpet 1,670 1,693 1,615 Market Share 1,560 1,504 as of February 2020 1,444 1,356 1,393 1,325 1,325 495 512 434 463 431 20.10 % 20.21 % 435 418 427 394 410 White Black Product Product 1,126 1,152 1,175 1,181 1,009 1,073 885 915 938 966 2011 20
Slide 25: Crack Margin Effect on Tüpraş in Q1 (FOB Italy Prices)
Crack Margin Effect on Tüpraş in Q1 (FOB Italy Prices) Product Price ($/ton) Tüpraş 2020 Crack Margin ($/bbl) Product 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 Production Yields 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 LPG 429 421 5.0% -12.0 -25.7 Gasoline 464 550 21.4% 6.9 4.5 Naphtha 381 473 1.0% -7.3 -9.8 Jet Fuel 458 605 17.3% 8.1 13.8 Diesel 45
Slide 26: Q1 Product Yields
Q1 Product Yields 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 Asphalt LPG 5% Other 4% AsphaltOtherLPG Kok 2% Kok 7% 1% 4% 2% Gasoline 4% Gasoline Other Fuel Oil Other Fuel Oil 20% 2% 21% white Light white 15% Black Prod. 2% Light 2% Distil. Black Prod. 13% Distil. 21% 26% 25% Naphtha Naphtha 2% 1% Mid. Distil. Mid. Distil. 51%
Slide 27: Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)
Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL) 31.03.2020 31.12.2019 Diff. Diff. (%) Current Assets 22,939 27,919 -4,980 -18 Cash & C. Equivalents 10,995 10,652 343 3 Trade Receivables 4,423 4,788 -365 -8 Derivatives 756 304 452 149 Inventories 5,300 9,469 -4,168 -44 Pre-paid expenses 97 237 -140 -59 Other Curre
Slide 28: Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl)
Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl) Margins Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin 9.3 8.1 5.3 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.6 1.7 1.8 1.2 2017 12M 2018 12M 2019 12M 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 Gross Inventory Clean Gross Clean NET Net ($/bbl) Med Margin Margin Effect Margin Margin Margin 2019 Q1 9.9 0.8 9.0 3.2 4.2 3.6 2019 12M 9.2 0.1 9.1
Slide 29: Capacity Utilization (%)
Capacity Utilization (%) Q1 Capacity Utilization* (%) 12M Capacity Utilization* (%) Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total 106 108 105 100 7 98 7 4 96 94 5 7 4 85 9 78 6 11 100 101 101 94 91 89 87 79 67 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 2016 2017 2018 201
Slide 30: Finished Product and Semi Product Imports
Finished Product and Semi Product Imports Product Imports (Thousand Tons) Intermediate Imports (Thousand Tons) Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 190 150 148 233 120 189 63 66 30 20 - - - 0 0 HS Diesel ULSD Jet Fuel HVGO ASR F. Oil LSFO Naphtha MTBE 21/05/2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Earnings Prese
Slide 31: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 21/05/2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 31 Earnings Presentation