Exelon Corporation · NASDAQ:EXC
Exelon — Banc of America Securities 34th Annual Investment Conference 2004
21 slides from Exelon's conference presentation, Sep 21, 2004
Slide 1: Leading The Way
Leading The Way Robert S. Shapard Executive Vice President & CFO Banc of America Securities 34th Annual Investment Conference San Francisco September 21, 2004
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking
Slide 3: Exelon
Exelon * Operating capacity at 12/31/03; includes long-term contracts and excludes Sithe and New England assets Sources: Company reports, Thomson Financial, Bloomberg Energy Delivery Generation Enterprises* ComEd PECO Nuclear Power Power Team * Divesting
Slide 4: Industry Trends
Industry Trends Evolving mix of regulation and competition Improving power market fundamentals Increasing energy prices Growing environmental concerns
Slide 5: Exelon's Position
Exelon's Position Low cost, low emissions generation fleet Large, stable retail base Successful cost reduction program Strong Balance Sheet
Slide 6: Generation capacity and regional positions
Nuclear 44% Oil 3% Renewable 1% Peaking 21% CCGT 11% Hydro 4% Coal 16% Capacity ~38 GW* *Includes long-term contracts CCGT = combined-cycle gas turbine Our Regional Positions Owned Generation: 2.5 GW Contracted Generation: 2.9 GW TXU Tolling Contract: 2.3 GW ERCOT & South Owned Generation: 11.2 GW C
Slide 7: Illinois Post 2006
Exelon. Illinois Post 2006
Slide 8: ComEd Bundled Tariff for Mass Market
ComEd Bundled Tariff for Mass Market 2003 Actual* 2007 Estimate RES SCI LCI LCI (< 3 MW) Non-Wires Rate 49 43 49.9 49.9 48.9 28 Line Losses 3 3 Wires Rate 25 31 35.1 15.1 10.1 3 77 77 Assumes increase in wires charges to recover increased investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure an
Slide 9: 2007 ComEd POLR Price Sensitivity to Fuel Prices
2007 ComEd POLR Price Sensitivity to Fuel Prices PRB Coal $/Ton HH Gas $/MMBTU * Fuel prices assumed in CERA's 2007 MAIN ATC price forecasts (avg. of "Technology Enhanced" and "Rear View Mirror" scenarios) ** POLR price assumed to be 1.5 x CERA's 2007 MAIN ATC price forecast of $33 per MWh (average
Slide 10: ComEd Delivery Service Investments
ComEd Delivery Service Investments ComEd has made significant investments in Delivery Rate Base and experienced significant increases in costs since the last rate case test year (2000). Note: Financial data is simplified and rounded for illustrative purposes.
Slide 11: Financial Overview
Exelon. Financial Overview
Slide 12: 2004 Guidance and Expected EPS Drivers
2004 Guidance Weather ComEd CTC Amort. / Depr. Nuclear Outages /Fuel O&M + Pension + All Other Exelon Way Load Growth Other RNF Interest 2005 Guidance Invisible dataset 0 2.807217509 2.796245631 2.746768665 2.697 2.597 2.597 2.71 2.79 2.837 0 Green 2.807217509 0.016342461 0.027314339 0.049476966 0.0
Slide 13: Deploying Our Cash - Forecast
Deploying Our Cash - Forecast (1) Illustrative only - assumes 5% EPS growth (2) See presentation appendix for factors used in reconciliation of earnings guidance to GAAP (3) Assumes middle of the targeted payout range for 2005 and 2006 although no Board action has been taken (4) Available for stock
Slide 14: Peer Comparisons
Peer Comparisons Sources: Thomson Financial, Bloomberg Market data as of 8/31/04 CAGR = Compound annual growth rate *Exelon estimates: excludes transition debt interest, EXC coverage ratio also excludes Boston Generating Facility debt ** Edison International reinstated dividend 1/04. Note: See prese
Slide 15: Primary Investor Issues
Primary Investor Issues Low Yield Illinois 2007 Market Structure M&A Considerations
Slide 16: Yield
Yield Today, Exelon's yield is below the industry average Cash from operations has improved significantly (Exelon Way, sales growth, improved margins) Cash flow in 2004 is being used to strengthen the balance sheet As a result, Exelon's balance sheet and credit measures will be superior to most of o
Slide 17: Illinois Restructuring In 2007
Illinois Restructuring In 2007 Structure of the 2007 market is still undefined The ICC is expected to make a recommendation in November of 2004 Exelon Generation's Nuclear fleet is the lowest cost energy source in the ComEd region and is without material fuel cost risk or environmental risks Higher
Slide 18: M&A Considerations
M&A Considerations There continues to be media speculation and inquiry about acquisition activity by Exelon Industry consolidation is likely Exelon continues to look for and evaluate opportunities to add value through M&A Exelon will only make acquisitions if they meet our strict criteria Accretive
Slide 19: Recent Out-Performance - Positioned For More
Recent Out-Performance - Positioned For More PE ratio is still approximately 10% below peer group with root causes being addressed in the near term Dividend level indicated for 2005 does not appear to be fully reflected in the share price Exelon has a track record of meeting or exceeding earnings gu
Slide 20: Appendix
Exelon. APPENDIX
Slide 21: Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow We define free cash flow as: Cash from operations (which includes pension contributions and the benefit of synthetic fuel investments), less Cash used in investing activities, less Transition debt maturities Common stock dividend payments at 2003 rates Other routine activities (e.g.,
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