ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna · GPW:PKN
ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna — PKN Orlen — Q4 2017 Earnings Presentation
36 slides from ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna's earnings presentation, Jan 25, 2018
Slide 1: PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 4Q17
PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 4Q17 25 January 2018 #ORLEN4Q17@PKN_ORLEN
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2017 Macro environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Outlook for 2018 2
Slide 3: Key highlights 2017
Key highlights 2017 EBITDA LIFO: PLN 10,4 bn Record-high throughput: 33,2 mt (94% capacity utilization) Record-high sales: 42,4 mt (increase by 7% y/y) Record-high retail result: over PLN 2 bn Positive impact of macro and regulations limiting grey zone in Poland Value creation Launching CCGT Włocław
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2017 Macro environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Outlook for 2018 4
Slide 5: Macro environment in 4Q17 (y/y)
Macro environment in 4Q17 (y/y) Downstream margin decrease Product slate of downstream margin Model downstream margin, USD/bbl Crack margins Refining products (USD/t) 4Q16 3Q17 4Q17 ∆ y/y -0,5 USD/bbl Diesel 87 96 91 5% 13,6 13,9 Gasoline 131 164 139 6% 12,0 12,1 11,5 HHO -110 -100 -130 -18% SN 150
Slide 6: Diesel consumption increase; regulations limiting grey zone in Poland
Diesel consumption increase (y/y) Positive impact of regulations limiting grey zone in Poland GDP increase1 Fuel consumption (diesel, gasoline)2 Change (%) to respective quarter of the last year mt 4Q17 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 4Q16 4Q17 4Q16 4Q17 + 12% 4,1 4,0 4,9 4,1÷4,7 + 8% 2,7 3,69 4,12 1,02 1,11 Po
Slide 7: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2017 Macro environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Outlook for 2018 7
Slide 8: Financial results in 4Q17
Financial results in 4Q17 4Q16 3Q17 4Q17 PLN m 12M16 12M17 Revenues: increase by 8% (y/y) due to higher + 8% +20% crude oil prices and sales volumes 22 902 24 730 24 734 79 553 95 364 Revenues EBITDA LIFO: decrease by PLN (-) 0,6 bn (y/y) + 1,0 bn mainly due to negative impact of macro partially - 0
Slide 9: EBITDA LIFO segments' results in 4Q17
EBITDA LIFO Segments’ results in 4Q17 PLN m 491 78 2 022 Downstream: negative impact of macro partially limited by -183 higher sales volumes (y/y). 4Q16 results include PLN 0,3 bn 1 636 positive effect of received insurance related to Steam Cracker failure in Unipetrol Downstream Retail Upstream Cor
Slide 10: Downstream – EBITDA LIFO
Downstream – EBITDA LIFO Sales increase limited negative impact of macro EBITDA LIFO PLN m Higher throughput by 5% (y/y) due to full utilization of 3000 refineries in Płock and Lithuania 2712 2550 2513 Sales volumes increase by 4% (y/y), of which: 2291 2363 higher sales (y/y): gasoline by 3%, LPG by
Slide 11: Downstream – operational data
Downstream – operational data Higher crude oil throughput and sales volumes increase Sales volumes Utilization ratio mt % +4% 8,9 9 Refineries 4Q16 3Q17 4Q17 ∆ (y/y) 8,5 8,1 8,1 8,2 Płock 93% 100% 104% 11 pp 7,9 7,9 8 7,7 7,6 Unipetrol 90% 97% 81% -9 pp 7,3 7,2 ORLEN Lietuva 97% 106% 104% 7 pp 7 6,8
Slide 12: Retail – EBITDA LIFO
Retail – EBITDA LIFO Sales volumes and retail margins increase EBITDA LIFO PLN m Sales volumes increase by 11% (y/y) 800 Market share increase in the Czech Rep., in Germany and 619 610 576 in Lithuania (y/y) 600 539 491 441 440 Fuel margins increase in Czech and German markets at 349 369 372 compara
Slide 13: Retail – operational data
Retail – operational data Sales volumes increase and further non-fuel offer development Sales volumes Number of petrol stations and market shares (by volume) mt #, % + 11% 2,5 2,3 2,3 2,3 2,1 2,2 2,0 2,1 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,5 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Stop Caf
Slide 14: Upstream – EBITDA LIFO
Upstream – EBITDA LIFO Increase of average production by 17% (y/y) EBITDA LIFO Average production PLN m th. boe/d 150 20 + 17% 128 16,7 16,2 15,0 100 15 14,2 13,9 14,4 80 82 78 13,2 12,8 58 53 50 42 10 27 7,4 7,3 14 13 6,7 6,8 10 7 5 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q15 2
Slide 15: Upstream
Upstream Poland Canada Total reserves of crude oil and gas (2P) Total reserves of crude oil and gas (2P) Ca. 11 m boe* (6% liquid hydrocarbons, 94% gas) Ca. 141 m boe* (42% liquid hydrocarbons, 58% gas) 4Q17 4Q17 Average production: 1,3 th. boe/d (100% gas) Average production: 14,9 th. boe/d (42% li
Slide 16: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2017 Macro environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Outlook for 2018 16
Slide 17: Cash flow
Cash flow Cash flow from operations Cash flow from investments PLN bn PLN bn 0,7 2,0 0,6 0,9 -1,3 -1,1 -0,5 -1,7 EBITDA LIFO effect Working capital Others Net inflow CAPEX CAPEX liabilities Net outflow LIFO increase from 4Q17 change and others from 4Q17 operations investment 4Q17 4Q17 Working capita
Slide 18: Financial strength
Financial strength Net debt and gearing Net debt/EBITDA LIFO PLN bn, % Financial gearing 3,5 11,5 11,6 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 3,4 3,7 3,7 1,0 0,73 2,2 0,53 0,59 1,7 0,35 1,2 0,5 0,11 0,07 0,6 0,8 0,0 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 Diversified sources of financing (gross debt) Gross
Slide 19: CAPEX 2017
CAPEX 2017 Planned CAPEX 2017 Realized CAPEX 12M17 – split by segments PLN bn, % PLN bn 5,5 0,8 0,2 4,6 Downstream 2,1 0,7 5,8 2,9 Growth 3,3 Retail 0,4 5,1 0,5 Energy Upstream 0,8 Petchem 1,3 Maintenance 2,2 1,1 and regulatory Refining CAPEX Downstream Retail Upstream Corporate CAPEX 2017 functions
Slide 20: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 2017 Macro environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Outlook for 2018 20
Slide 21: CAPEX 2018
CAPEX 2018 Planned CAPEX 2018 Planned CAPEX 2018 – split by segment PLN bn, % PLN bn 4,8 0,3 4,8 0,8 Downstream 1,2 16% 0,7 Retail 0,4 Growth 2,5 5,8 48% 32% Upstream 0,8 3,0 5,1 4% Corp. functions 0,1 Maintenance 2,3 and regulatory CAPEX Downstream Retail Upstream Corporate CAPEX 2018 functions 201
Slide 22: Macro environment 2018
Macro environment 2018 Macro Brent crude oil – expected increase of crude oil price vs. the average for 2017 due to extension of agreement between OPEC countries regarding limitation of crude oil production by 1,8 m bbl/d till the end of 2018. However, stronger increase of crude oil price should inc
Slide 23: Thank you for your attention
Thank you for your attention For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: ir@orlen.pl www.orlen.pl
Slide 24: Supporting slides
Agenda Supporting slides 24 24
Slide 25: Results – split by quarter
Results – split by quarter PLN m 4Q16 3Q17 4Q17 ∆ (y/y) 12M16 12M17 ∆ Revenues 22 902 24 730 24 734 8% 79 553 95 364 20% EBITDA LIFO 2 655 3 047 2 022 -24% 9 412 10 448 11% LIFO effect 526 -107 731 39% 85 799 840% EBITDA 3 181 2 940 2 753 -13% 9 497 11 247 18% Depreciation -550 -616 -662 -20% -2 110
Slide 26: Results – split by segment
Results – split by segment 4Q17 Corporate Downstream Retail Upstream TOTAL PLN m functions EBITDA LIFO 1 636 491 78 -183 2 022 LIFO effect 731 - - - 731 EBITDA 2 367 491 78 -183 2 753 Depretiation -439 -112 -76 -35 -662 EBIT 1 928 379 2 -218 2 091 EBIT LIFO 1 197 379 2 -218 1 360 4Q16 Corporate Down
Slide 27: EBITDA LIFO – split by segment
EBITDA LIFO – split by segment PLN m 4Q16 3Q17 4Q17 ∆ (y/y) 12M16 12M17 ∆ Downstream 2 363 2 513 1 636 -31% 8 107 8 720 8% Retail 440 610 491 12% 1 801 2 049 14% Upstream 128 53 78 -39% 255 293 15% Corporate functions -276 -129 -183 34% -751 -614 18% EBITDA LIFO 2 655 3 047 2 022 -24% 9 412 10 448 1
Slide 28: Results – split by company
Results – split by company Others and 4Q17 ORLEN consolidation PLN m PKN ORLEN S.A. Unipetrol 2) Lietuva 2) corrections Total Revenues 18 191 5 041 5 024 -3 522 24 734 EBITDA LIFO 1 167 211 344 300 2 022 LIFO effect 1) -571 -123 -29 -8 -731 EBITDA 1 738 334 373 308 2 753 Depreciation 338 139 19 166
Slide 29: ORLEN Lietuva Group
ORLEN Lietuva Group USD m 4Q16 3Q17 4Q17 ∆ r/r 12M16 12M17 ∆ Revenues 1 113 1 174 1 400 26% 3 607 4 541 26% EBITDA LIFO 77 95 97 26% 279 290 4% EBITDA 83 96 105 27% 258 308 19% EBIT 79 91 99 25% 244 289 18% Net result 95 72 78 -18% 238 244 3% Sales volumes in 4Q17 slightly above the level from 4Q16.
Slide 30: UNIPETROL Group
UNIPETROL Group CZK m 4Q16 3Q17 4Q17 ∆ r/r 12M16 12M17 ∆ Revenues 26 466 30 904 30 544 15% 87 813 122 478 39% EBITDA LIFO 3 312 3 414 1 282 -61% 10 186 14 860 46% EBITDA 3 853 2 934 2 033 -47% 10 077 14 997 49% EBIT 3 282 2 259 1 189 -64% 8 121 12 162 50% Net result 4 185 1 539 716 -83% 8 037 8 687
Slide 31: Macro environment in 1Q18
Macro environment in 1Q18 Downstream margin decrease Product slate of downstream margin Model downstream margin, USD/bbl Crack margins Refining products (USD/t) 1Q17 4Q17 1Q18* ∆ Q/Q ∆ Y/Y -2,7 USD/bbl Diesel 77 91 85 -7% 10% 13,6 13,9 Gasoline 142 139 125 -10% -12% 12,0 12,1 HHO -118 -130 -161 -24%
Slide 32: Macro environment in 1Q18
Macro environment in 1Q18 Refining margin and B/U differential decrease Petrochemical margin decrease Model refining margin and Brent/Ural differential, USD/bbl Model petrochemical margin, EUR/t differential margin - 3,6 USD/bbl - 61 EUR/t 1.003 8,4 8,9 930 8,0 906 911 890 7,4 1,0 869 1,5 2,2 6,2 2,
Slide 33: Production data
Production data 4Q16 3Q17 4Q17 ∆ (y/y) ∆ (q/q) 12M16 12M17 ∆ Total crude oil throughput in PKN ORLEN (kt) 8 308 8 966 8 746 5% -2% 30 147 33 228 10% Utilization 94% 102% 99% 5 pp -3 pp 86% 94% 8 pp Refinery in Poland 1 Processed crude (kt) 3 799 4 064 4 250 12% 5% 15 130 15 220 1% Utilization 93% 10
Slide 34: Dictionary
Dictionary Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas) Model refining margin = revenues (9
Slide 35: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by PKN ORLEN S.A. (“PKN ORLEN” or “Company”). Neither the Presentation nor any copy hereof may be copied, distributed or delivered directly or indirectly to any person for any purpose without PKN ORLEN’s knowledge and consent. Copying,
Slide 36: Investor Relations contact details
For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: ir@orlen.pl www.orlen.pl