Compania Sud Americana De Vapores S.a. · BCS:VAPORES
Compania Sud Americana De Vapores — Investor Presentation (September 2025)
24 slides from Compania Sud Americana De Vapores's investor presentation, Sep 4, 2025
Slide 1: Geoeconomics & investment: Context, Strategy, Tactics
Geoeconomics & investment: Context, Strategy, Tactics. Richard Baldwin Professor of International Economics IMD Business School, Lausanne 4 September 2025 Santiago (virtual) 11
Slide 2: Where are we on trade & how did we get here?
Where are we on trade & how did get here? 2
Slide 3: Uncertainty abounds & here to stay
Uncertainty abounds & here to stay.
Slide 4: Why are today's geopolitics so complex?
Why are today’s geopolitics so complex? Cold War = US superpower = 3D chess = checkers. Bingo. today’s G-zero world.. 4 4
Slide 5: Welcome to Ian Bremmer's G-zero world
Welcome to Ian Bremmer’s G-zero world. Multipolar economic order: 1. Global power vacuum being filled. 2. Complex regional conflicts, shifting alliances. 5
Slide 6: What changed? Root causes: 3+3 Facts
G7 global economic clout 1 diminished; but “omelet” problem. US middleclass backlash; US 2 dropped global economic leadership. US still military/security hegemony 3 & banking/financial/dollar dominance. What changed? 1 China becomes sole manufacturing superpower; Root causes: critical to global supp
Slide 7: 1. US & G7 economic clout falls vs China
1. US & G7 economic clout falls vs China. G7 loses world share that China GDP (% of World), current dollars. gains. 0.8 1990 G7 CN 66% RU US 0.7 0.6 2023 44% 0.5 0.4 0.3 26% 0.2 1990 0.1 2% 17% 0 7 7
Slide 8: 2. China growth slows
China real GDP growth (%), 5-year moving average (1965-2023). 15 2. China growth 2007, 12% slows. 10 CCP tightens grip on economy & society. 5 2023, 5% 0 1977 1995 1997 1979 1999 1971 1973 1975 1991 1993 2023 1985 1987 2015 2017 1989 2019 1981 1983 2011 2013 2021 1965 1967 1969 2005 2007 2009 2001 2
Slide 9: Navigate the Future: Understand what Trump has done & why
Navigate the Future: Understand what Trump has done & why. 9
Slide 10: The post-American trade leadership era
The post-American trade leadership era. Before After
Slide 11: Trump's trade policy is economically incoherent, but emotionally coherent
Trump’s trade policy is economically incoherent, but emotionally coherent. “Grievance Doctrine” 11
Slide 12: Myth
Myth USA Foreigners the steal. It’s … payback time. Jobs stolen 12
Slide 13: Grievance-driven trade policy, not economic-driven trade policy
Grievance-driven trade policy, not economic-driven trade policy. 13
Slide 14: Why so little reaction by US stock market?
Why so little reaction of by US stock market? 14
Slide 15: President Trump: pragmatic not fanatic
My hypothesis: • TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out” President Trump: pragmatic not fanatic. 1) TACO. – Step 1: Flashy, crazy announcements 2) Actual vs get massive media coverage; headline tariffs. – Step 2: Rapid climbdowns on most damaging policies. • New TACO = Tariff-Announcement Climbdowns Obfu
Slide 16: US tariffs didn't rise that much since April
US tariffs didn’t rise that much since April. • Since April, US average tariff rose from ~7% to ~16%. • Why Headline vs Actual? 50% exempted. China’s tariff fell; Canada & Mexico little change. 16
Slide 17: The future is unknowable but also inevitable
The future is unknowable but also inevitable. 17
Slide 18: Four Future Scenarios
Four Future Scenarios: 1. 1930s: “World War Trade” 2. Managed Multilateral Drift. 3. Fighting Trade blocs. 4. Reglobalisation Without America.
Slide 19: Conjectures
Conjectures: • No single trade leader. • New coalitions will form; old ones expand. • World goes to “Reglobalisation without America” scenario (via regionalism). 19
Slide 20: End. Thank you for listening
End. Thank you for listening. 20
Slide 21: Bonus slides
Bonus slides 21
Slide 22: Transiting to unknown system
Transiting to unknown system. • US is undermining its hard & soft power; its world trade share is falling & will fall further. • China, India & other large emerging economics gaining status & power regionally. • China fully countered US with export controls. • The world has moved on; the fire didn’t
Slide 23: Challenges & opportunities
Challenges & opportunities. • Balancing US & China. Time is on your side: • Prez Trump hobbled by the cost-of-living hit to his base. • Midterm elections will hinder his power. • GOP cohesion is fading. 23
Slide 24: BRICS hit hard
BRICS hit hard. • Trumpian tariffs have hit the BRICS Dutiable Imports especially hard. latest average as a % of Total US import share tariff Imports (2024) • Fewer exemptions. World 16% 47% 100% • Higher headline rates. China 41% 86% 14% India 36% 55% 3% Source: Fitch Ratings Brazil 27% 75% 1% esti
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