Ryanair Holdings PLC · EURONEXT:RYA
Ryanair — H1 FY2019 Earnings Presentation
20 slides from Ryanair's earnings presentation, October 2018
Slide 1: FY19 Half Year
RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. FY19 Half Year Oct 2018
Slide 2: Europe's Favourite Airline
Eur ope’s Favourite Air line Lowest fare/lowest cost carrier No 1, Traffic – 141m guests (+8%) No 1, Cover – 37 States & 92 Bases Unions add cost/complexity – don’t alter model Oil prices ($85pbl) adds cost – consolidation 210 MAX a/c – drive lower costs to 200m p.a. 2
Slide 3: Europe's Lowest Fares
Eur ope’s Lowest Far es Avg. Fare Change % > Ryanair Ryanair €39 -3% Wizz €46 -5% +18% easyJet €60 -2% +54% Norwegian €80 +4% +105% IAG €193 -2% +395% Lufthansa €196 -3% +403% AF/KLM €213 -1% +446% Avg Competitor Fare €131 +236% (Source: FY results/Annual Reports) 3
Slide 4: Europe's Lowest Costs
Eur ope’s Lowest Costs € per pax (ex-fuel) RYA WIZ EZJ NOR EUROW’ LUV Staff/efficiency 6 5 9 17 18 50 Airport & Hand. 7 11 21 17 34 9 Route Charges 5 5 6 7 7 0 Own’ship & maint. 6 16 8 34 23 16 S & M other 3 3 7 9 29 18 Total 27 40 51 84 111 93 %> Ryanair +48% +89% +211% +311% +244% (Source: FY resu
Slide 5: Europe's No. 1 Coverage
E u r o p e ’s N o. 1 C ove r a g e – I n cl . L M 92 bases 234 airports (Maj prim) S.19 bases -MRS & BOD (Fr) -London SEN (UK) -TXL (Ger) 141m guests (+8%) 455 x B737 fleet 210 x B737-MAX on order 5
Slide 6: Europe's No. 1 Market Share
E u r o p e ’s N o. 1 M a r ke t S h a r e ( 1 5 % ) Country (Cap m)* No. 1 No. 2 No. 3 Share Spain (139) Vueling Iberia 20% UK (138) EZJ BA 19% Germany (135) Luft EZJ 9% CEE (119) Wizz Aegean 15% Italy (102) Alitalia EZJ 27% Portugal (29) TAP EZJ 20% Poland (24) LOT Wizz 29% Ireland (19) Aer Lingus
Slide 7: H1 Results (excl. LM)
H1 Results (excl. LM) Sep 17 Sep 18 Guests (m) 72.1 76.6 +6% Load Factor 96% 96% - Avg. fare (incl. bag) €47 €46 -3% Revenue (bn) €4.43 €4.79 +8% Cost Per Pax (ex fuel) €26 €28 +7% PAT (bn)* €1.29 €1.20 -7% Net Margin 29% 25% -4pts *(Excl. except item -€45m Laudamotion year 1 setup losses) 7
Slide 8: Current Developments
Cur r ent Developments Lower fares reported across EU, W.18 capacity growth +8% Rising oil ($85pbl) & EU261 costs – due to ATC strikes/shortages Strong US$ + high oil accelerates failures Good progress on union agreements – more to do Laudamotion €150m loss, moves to breakeven in Yr 2 Sh
Slide 9: Higher oil puts pressure on weak competitors
Higher oil puts pressure on weak competitors 12 month hedges to Sep 19 Ryanair 90% @ $679 m.t. 10% spot Lufthansa 77% @ $685 m.t. 23% spot easyJet 61% @ $560 m.t. 39% spot AirFrance/KLM 58% @ $683 m.t. 42% spot IAG 57% @ $613 m.t. 43% spot Wizz 41% @ $624 m.t. 59% spot Norwegian 15% @ $587 m.t. 85%
Slide 10: Consolidation accelerates
Consolidation accelerates Difficult winter: – Capacity growth, US$ strength & higher oil Airline failures: – Primera (STN & Scand) – Small Planet & Azur (Ger) – Skyworks (Swi) – VLM (Bel) – Cello (UK) – Cobalt (Cyprus) Base cuts: – Norwegian (EDI & BFS) – Wizz (POZ) – Lufthansa (DUS) – EZJ (OP
Slide 11: Union Progress – much done more to do
Union Progress – much done more to do Pilot agreements: UK, Ita, Ire & Port – Spa agreed Cabin crew agreements: UK, Italy, Ger & Ire 90% Pilots agreed 20% pay increase in 2018 Actively meeting other unions Local contracts, 5/4 pilot rosters, local seniority lists Further strikes possible
Slide 12: Laudamotion
Laudamotion Shareholding to 75% in Aug FY’19 – 3m guests – €150m except. Yr 1 startup loss FY’20 – 5m guests S.19: 23 aircraft: (19 x A320’s + 4 x B737) New livery & interiors Improved pilot & c. crew pay Austrian AOC, Vienna base, German & Palma slots 12
Slide 13: Medium term winner
Medium ter m winner Cost leadership widens – lowest cost wins! Boeing-MAX: 4% more seats, 16% lower fuel Airport incentives improve as competitors fail BBB+ bal sheet = cheap finance, hedge lines & s’holder returns Pilot/C. crew supply improves as comps fail (Primera – 400 crew) Ancillar
Slide 14: EU airline shares Jan - Oct 19th
EU air line shares Jan - Oct 19th 140 120 NOR -3% IAG -14% 100 RYR -22% EZJ -24% 80 WIZ -34% LUF -37% 60 AFK -40% 40 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 14
Slide 15: FY19 Guidance
FY19 Guidance Traffic +8% to 141m* – further cuts possible H2 fares -2% – could fall further Strong Ancillary growth – Priority Boarding Fuel +€460m y-o-y Ex Fuel Costs +6% (subject to EU261 costs) PAT guidance €1.10bn - €1.20bn, excl LM (€150m except. loss) Subject to close in fares,
Slide 16: Seat Sale
SEAT SALE 1m SEATS FROM €9.99 Book on Ryanair.com before midnight, 25 Oct. 16 Travel Nov-Feb, Subject to availability
Slide 17: Fuel hedging
Fuel hedging Jet (met. tonne) FY18 FY19 FY20 Q1 $508 $547 $716 (90%) Q2 $494 $547 $718 (90%) Q3 $476 $624 (90%) $706 (10%) Q4 $491 $625 (90%) FY $493 $583 (90%) $718 (52%) €/$ FY18 FY19 FY20 Opex hedge $1.12 $1.15 (90%) $1.23 (85%) * Over €460m fuel headwind in FY19 – (incl. ETS/Into-plane/de-icing)
Slide 18: MAX-200 Gamechanger
MAX-200 “Gamechanger” 210 orders (135 firm, 75 options) First 5 MAX’s Spring 19 42 deliveries Aug ‘19 to Mar ‘20 4% more seats, 16% fuel savings 40% reduced noise emissions Drives unit cost savings – MAX 10% of fleet in FY20 18
Slide 19: Shareholder Returns €6.2bn
Shar eholder Retur ns €6.2bn Buyback Spec Divs Total (€m) (€m) (€m) FY08 & 09 346 346 FY11 & 12 125 500 625 FY13 & 14 549 492 1,041 FY15 112 520 632 FY16 1,104 1,104 FY17 1,018 1,018 829 829 * FY18 560 560 * FY19 Total 4,643 1,512 6,155 * Incl. €750m (Feb. 18 to Oct. 18) 19
Slide 20: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Certain of the information included in this presentation is forward looking and is subject to important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. By their nature, for