Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP

Thai Oil Public — Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation

51 slides from Thai Oil Public's earnings presentation, May 13, 2021

  1. Slide 1: Q1/21 Analyst Presentation

    Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q1/21 Analyst Presentation 13 May 2021 Time : 10:00 - 12:00 hrs. Online Channel : TOP IR Application, Facebook Live

  2. Slide 2: Disclaimer

    -2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad

  3. Slide 3: Presentation Agenda (Q1/21)

    -3- Presentation Agenda (Q1/21) Q1/21 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Q1/21 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS 2H/21 OUTLOOK FINAL REMARKS

  4. Slide 4: Q1/21 Key Highlights

    Q1/21 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Tharoll

  5. Slide 5: Q1/21 – 1 Year On, COVID-19 Still Here, But Recovery On The Way

    -5- Q1/21 – 1 Year On, COVID-19 Still Here, But Recovery On The Way Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market Conditions Extraordinary Effort Key Business Highlights Long Term Strategy COVID-19 Pandemic Global Oil Demand Recovery Strong Downstream Markets Coronavirus around the world C

  6. Slide 6: Continuous Extraordinary Effort

    -6--6- Continuous Extraordinary Effort Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market Conditions Extraordinary Effort Key Business Highlights Long Term Strategy • Enforcing highest level (Red) of COVID-19 preventing & monitoring • Communication through I-COVID center People First • Comprehe

  7. Slide 7: Q1/21 Key Market Highlights

    -7--7- Q1/21 Key Market Highlights Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market Conditions Extraordinary Effort Key Business Highlights Long Term Strategy Crude Oil (Dubai rose to $64.4/bbl from $ 49.8/bbl , MB-DB rose to $0.8/bbl from -$0.3/bbl ) Dubai ($/bbl) (ending price) Dubai • Opti

  8. Slide 8: Q1/21 Key Business Highlight & Financial Performance

    -8- Q1/21 Key Business Highlight & Financial Performance Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market Conditions Extraordinary Effort Key Business Highlights Long Term Strategy Key Business Highlight TOP Group Net Profit Operational Q1/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Unit :Million THB (MB) • Maintain high

  9. Slide 9: Long Term Strategy Implementation

    9- --9- Long Term Strategy Implementation Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market Conditions Extraordinary Effort Key Business Highlights Long Term Strategy CFP Olefins Funding Plans • Resume speedy CFP project execution • Maximizing value chain & paving the way to new New debt : USD

  10. Slide 10: Q1/21 Performance Analysis

    -10- Q1/21 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

  11. Slide 11: Refinery: Slightly Lower Utilization as Softening Domestic Oil Demand

    -11- Refinery: Slightly Lower Utilization as Softening Domestic Oil Demand Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate Mogas Jet/Kero Gasoil Total

  12. Slide 12: Refinery: Softening Mkt GRM Pressured by Higher Crude Premium

    Refinery: Softening Mkt GRM Pressured by Higher Crude Premium -12- Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2020 2021 2020 Q1/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

  13. Slide 13: Aromatic: Higher Contribution Supported by PX and BZ Margins

    Aromatic: Higher Contribution Supported by PX and BZ Margins -13- Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Aromatic Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2020 2021 2020 Q1/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY 81% 70% 80% PX-

  14. Slide 14: Base Oil: Robust Contribution Supported by Strong Lube Spread

    -14- Base Oil: Robust Contribution Supported by Strong Lube Spread Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2020 2021 2020 Q1/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY 81% 93%

  15. Slide 15: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost

    -15- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Interest Expens

  16. Slide 16: Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group

    -16- Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP (4) (5) 74% 100% Power & Steam Sales Electricity(1) 2,544 (4) Thaioil Power(TP)

  17. Slide 17: Performance Breakdown

    -17- Performance Breakdown Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Petrochemical & (2) Others & (3) Consolidated Net Stock Gain/ Consolidated Net Petroleum Power Profit Profit Lube Base (1) New Business (excl. Stock G/(L) (Loss)

  18. Slide 18: Q1/21 TOP Group Consolidated P&L

    -18- Q1/21 TOP Group Consolidated P&L Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others (MB) Q1/21 Q4/20 QoQ+/(-) Q1/20 YoY+/(-) Represent Sales Revenue 73,449 59,592 13,857 (A) 76,569 (3,120) (D) Net Realized G/(L) on Financial Instrumen

  19. Slide 19: Q1/21 Consolidated Cash Flow

    -19- Q1/21 Consolidated Cash Flow Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others (Unit: MB) Q1’21 Q1’20 Represent Q1’21 Q1’20 Represent Operating Cash Flow (CFO) (3,364) (4,011) Investments (CFI) (4,727) (33,218) Net income 3,494 (13,6

  20. Slide 20: Q1/21 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios

    -20- Q1/21 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Mar 21 (Unit: million THB) 306,188 303,857 Total IBD

  21. Slide 21: 2H/21 Outlook

    21- --21- 2H/21 OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Refinery • Aromatic • Base Oil & Bitumen

  22. Slide 22: Improving Demand in 2H/21 amid Higher Crude Cost

    -22- -22- Improving Demand in 2H/21 amid Higher Crude Cost Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatic Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A World Reaches 50% Vaccination By End/21 & 75% by Q1/22 B Expected Balanced Crude Oil Market in 2021 Cover 50% population Est. Vaccination Time

  23. Slide 23: Recovering Refinery Margin on Improving Demand due to Easing Lockdown

    Recovering Refinery Margin on Improving Demand due to Easing Lockdown -23- -23- Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatic Lube&Bitumen Conclusion Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 8.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.1 5.9 4.3 3.7 3.2 3.5 2.7 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.8 0.0 0.4 -0.9 Q1/

  24. Slide 24: Recovering Jet demand on Signs of More International Flight Movement

    Higher Gasoline Demand Driven by U.S. Driving Season -24- -24- Recovering Jet demand on Signs of More International Flight Movement Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatic Lube&Bitumen Conclusion Higher Gasoline Demand in 2H/21 Driven by U.S. Driving Season Better Je

  25. Slide 25: Stable Fuel Oil Market on Higher Summer Demand in ME amid Rising Supply

    Rising Gasoil Demand on Economic Recovery from Vaccination Progress -25- -25- Stable Fuel Oil Market on Higher Summer Demand in ME amid Rising Supply Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatic Lube&Bitumen Conclusion Improving Gasoil Demand on Economic Recovery Stable F

  26. Slide 26: Recovery of Domestic Demand Following Economic Improvement in 2H/21

    -26- -26- Recovery of Domestic Demand Following Economic Improvement in 2H/21 Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatic Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A Higher Gasoline Demand on Transportation Activities Improvement B Higher Jet Demand on Recovery of Tourism Gasoline Demand

  27. Slide 27: More Aromatics Supply from Mega Capacity in 2H/21

    More Aromatics Supply from Mega Capacity in 2H/21 but Still Lower than -27- -27- Pre-COVID-19 level Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatic Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A Short MoreTerm SupportAddition Capacity by SM Run Rate amid and LowerDemand Recovered BZ Stock B Impr

  28. Slide 28: Higher Base Oil Supply in 2H/21 but Still Lower than Pre-COVID-19 level

    -28- -28- Higher Base Oil Supply in 2H/21 but Still Lower than Pre-COVID-19 level Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatic Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A Higher Base Oil Supply in 2H/21 B Lower Plant Maintenance in Asia Supply Disruption MTON AP Base Oil Effective Capacity

  29. Slide 29: 2H/21 Outlook Conclusion

    -29- -29- 2H/21 Outlook Conclusion (vs. 1H/21) Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatic Lube&Bitumen Conclusion Crude Oil Bullish Oil Market on Widely Vaccine Roll Out amid Higher Crude Cost Recovering Refinery Margin on Improving Demand after COVID-19 Vaccination Ref

  30. Slide 30: Final Remarks

    -30- FINAL REMARKS

  31. Slide 31: Looking Forward

    -31- Looking Forward Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Optimistic Outlook • Global oil demand set to accelerate in 2H/21 • Improving refinery margins on increasing petroleum demand after COVID-19 relief • Recovering domestic oil demand on increasing vaccination rate in Thailand in Q3/

  32. Slide 32: 60th Years of Success & Towards a 100 Years Company

    -32- 60th Years of Success & Towards a 100 Years Company Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks First private-owned Largest & highly complex A 100 years company Listed on SET refinery in Thailand refinery in Thailand 1961 - 1997 2004 - 2015 2017 - 2023 Thaioil’s Strategic Direction 1961 20

  33. Slide 33: arth

    arth Tharodl © isis &

  34. Slide 34: Appendix

    -34- APPENDIX • Dividend Payment • CAPEX • Financial Performance • Optimised & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products

  35. Slide 35: Dividend Payment

    Dividend -35- Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/Share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend 12.18 10.40 9.19 9.40 8.66 7.82 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 4.57 4.97 4.39 2.75 3.00 3.

  36. Slide 36: TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan

    CAPEX -36- TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Updated as of April 2021 Estimated Budgeting for Project Investment Plan 2021 - 2024 CFP project * 1,902 Total Ongoing CAPEX 201 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 48 Infrastructure Improvement ( i.e. Jetty

  37. Slide 37: Q1/21 - Financial Performance

    -37- Q1/21- Financial Performance TOP Group Net Profit Gross Refining Margin - GRM Unit : million THB (MB) Q1/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 $/bbl Q1/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 (13,754) MB 7,257 MB 3,360 MB Market GRM 0.1 1.2 0.7 Gain on selling GPSC share Stock 5,801 (12.3) 2.3 6.2 Others incl net realized g/l Gain/(Loss) 98

  38. Slide 38: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance

    Crude & Production -38- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Reference Domestic demand for TOP configuration* Crude output Price petroleum

  39. Slide 39: Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition in Medium Term

    Petroleum -39- Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition in Medium Term Asia Pacific and Middle East Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Japan Key Projects : New Addition India Vietnam Thailand Philippines Country Company CDU (KBD) Start-up M

  40. Slide 40: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin

    World GRM -40- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin $/BBL $/BBL SINGAPORE GRM EU – US Margins 70 15 60 10 50 5 40 0 30 20 -5 10 -10 0 -15 -10 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 SING CRACK SING HYDRO BRENT CRACK BRENT HYDRO WTI CRA

  41. Slide 41: Global Crude Oil Inventories

    Inventories -41- Global Crude Oil Inventories MBBL U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) MBBL Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma 600 Source : EIA 80 Source : EIA 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg

  42. Slide 42: Global Gasoline Inventories

    Inventories -42- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL Source : EIA MBBL 280 20 Source : IE Singapore 260 240 10 220 200 180 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg 16-20 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021

  43. Slide 43: Global Middle Distillate Inventories

    Inventories -43- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL 200 Source : EIA 20 Source : IE Singapore 180 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg 16-20 5yr-r

  44. Slide 44: Global Fuel Oil Inventories

    Inventories -44- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : IE Singapore Source : EIA 50 40 30 40 20 30 10 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg 16-20 5yr-range 20

  45. Slide 45: China's Refined Product Exports

    Inventories -45- China’s Refined Product Exports China’s Gasoline Exports China’s Gasoil Exports KBD KBD Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 600 800 500 700 600 400 500 300 400 200 300 200 100 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020 2

  46. Slide 46: Domestic LPG Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -46- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight KT/Day 2021 2019 2018 2020 • In 2M’21, LPG demand increased by 1.3% YoY following the increase in industry and petrochemical sectors. LPG demand in 20 the industry and petrochemical sector rose by

  47. Slide 47: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -47- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/GASOHOL Demand Highlight MML/Day • In Q1’21, Gasoline demand was reduced by 0.1% YoY to an 2021 2020 2019 2018 average of 31.1 MML/day while only Gasohol* demand 36 decreased by 0.2%

  48. Slide 48: Domestic Jet Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -48- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight MML/Day 2021 2020 2019 2018 • In Q1’21, Jet consumption decreased by 73.1% YoY, as the 24 domestic flight number dropped by 50.7% YoY from the flight suspension due to the second wave of the COVID

  49. Slide 49: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -49- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Gasoil Demand Highlight MML/Day 2021 2020 2019 2018 • In Q1’21, Gasoil demand increased by 1.5% YoY. Gasoil demand in 72 70.5 Jan’21 was pressured by the economic slowdown from the second 69.3 wave of CO

  50. Slide 50: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -50- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand 2021 2020 2019 2018 Fuel Oil Demand Highlight MML/Day • In Q1’21, Fuel Oil consumption rose by 29.1% YoY, as the 8 demand in the transportation sector, which accounted for 58.5% 5.9 5.6 of total Fuel Oil dem

  51. Slide 51: Thank You

    -51- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976

Thai Oil Public Company — Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation on 6ix