Sibanye Stillwater Limited · JSE:SSW
Sibanye Stillwater — Q4 2022 Earnings Presentation
56 slides from Sibanye Stillwater's earnings presentation, Mar 1, 2023
Slide 1: Results for the six months and year ended 31 December 2022
Results for the six months and year ended 31 December 2022 A decade of shared value. Well positioned for future value creation. 28 February 2023
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS The information in this document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the “safe harbour” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, including, among others, those re
Slide 3: Salient features for H2 2022 and year end 2022
Salient features for H2 2022 and year end 2022 • Continued improvements in all safety indicators with the fatal Injury frequency rate (FIFR) Safe production having improved by 75% from 0.133 for 2021 to 0.033 for 2022 • A remarkable journey of evolution and growth resulting in a more sustainable bus
Slide 4: Health and safety | Safe production journey
Health and safety | Safe production journey 2022 compared to 2021 Fatal elimination strategy is an imperative • 23% improvement in Serious Injury Frequency Rate (SIFR) • Independent safety review conducted in 2022 endorsed the safety • 27% improvement in Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate (LDIFR) strat
Slide 5: A decade of shared value
t~ Sibane ‘| Cam) Stillwater | CELEBRATING SHARED VALUE | The JSE Welcomes Sibanye-Stillwater 2023: Celebrating a Decade of Shared Value
Slide 6: Building a robust & sustainable business
Building a robust & sustainable business 2021 – New Century (increased from 19.99% to 53%*in Feb 2023) (tailings retreatment) 2021 - Rhyolite-Ridge (Li) 2019/20 – Signaled intention to enter the battery metals sector 2021 - Sandouville (Ni) 3 28 27 25 2021 - Keliber (LiOH) Li Lithium Ni Co Mn Nickel
Slide 7: A unique green portfolio of geographically diversified assets and commodities
A unique green portfolio of geographically diversified assets and commodities Listings JSE Limited share ticker: SSW NYSE ADR ticker: SBSW Market cap R110.4bn / US$6bn1 US PGMS SA PGMS Battery metals Circular economy SA GOLD Green metals include PGMs, circular economy assets, battery metals, uranium
Slide 8: Mineral reserves and resources - diversified, global portfolio underpinning long life
Mineral reserves and resources - diversified, global portfolio underpinning long life Life of mine (LOM) at 31 Dec 20221 Mineral Reserves* Mineral Resources* ² • Kroondal 15 years • Maiden declaration of lithium reserves and • Rustenburg 29 years 133% increase in lithium resources • Marikana (excl K
Slide 9: Solid earnings generation despite SA gold industrial action and US extreme weather event
Solid earnings generation despite SA gold industrial action and US extreme weather event Earnings¹ and gearing Production for the 2022 year 5 3 2.5 SA PGM 2.4 14% 2,036,178 6E oz Net debt: adjusted EBITDA ratio 4 Adjusted EBITDA (US$ billion) 2 3 US PGM 1.3 421,133 2E oz 2 1 0.6 PGM recycling 598,77
Slide 10: Shared value growth
Shared value growth 790% ▲ in revenue from 2013 to 2021 84,981 employees incl. contractors 326% ▲ in salaries and benefits from 2013 to 2021 R26 billion paid 110% ▲ in socio-economic development from 2013 to 2021 in salaries and benefits R2.2 billion invested in socio-economic 36,274 employees devel
Slide 11: Leading total shareholder returns versus peers since listing
Leading total shareholder returns versus peers since listing Total shareholder return (share price and dividends) since Sibanye-Stillwater was listed in Feb 2013 (rebased to 100) 800 700 600 355.93 Sibanye-Stillwater 205.04 Northam Platinum 500 177.80 Anglo American Platinum 134.31 FTSE JSE All-Shar
Slide 12: Strategy designed to manage and harness opportunities in a complex environment
Strategy designed to manage and harness opportunities in a complex environment 1. STRATEGIC FOUNDATION 2. STRATEGIC ESSENTIALS 3. STRATEGIC DIFFERENTIATORS Ensuring safety and well-being Recognised as a force for good Prospering in every region in which we operate Unique global portfolio of green me
Slide 13: Creating a unique portfolio of green metals
Creating a unique portfolio of green metals 3 28 27 29 25 Li Lithium Ni Co Cu Mn Nickel Cobalt Copper Manganese 79 92 Recycling Au Gold U Uranium Tailings retreatment PGMs 46 78 45 77 44 Pd Palladium Pt Platinum Rh Rhodium Ir Iridium Ru Ruthenium Future green energy Positioning Sibanye-Stillwater as
Slide 14: Established presence in the circular economy
Established presence in the circular economy 3 28 27 25 US PGM recycling operations Li Ni Co Mn Graphite Lithium Nickel Cobalt Manganese • One of the largest global PGM recyclers of auto catalysts 92 1 29 • Recycling emits 6x less tonnes of CO₂ Recycling U Uranium H Hydrogen Cu Copper Tailings retre
Slide 15: EV growth expectations vs supply realities
EV growth expectations vs supply realities; approx. 22 million BEVs (64%) at risk by 2030 Global BEV production forecasts (million units) Lithium demand vs. supply in 2030 incl. projects (LCE kt) 2 500 Shortfall ≈3.5 million BEVs 30 High risk… 2 000 Higher risk supply ≈18.7 million BEVs Medium risk
Slide 16: Sustainable demand for both PGMs and battery metals
Sustainable demand for both PGMs and battery metals Light duty vehicle production by engine type 120 40% 90 30% Units (million) 60 20% 30 10% 0 0% 2019 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E Fuel cell (FCEV) Battery electric (BEV) Diesel Gasoline %BEV Mix of EV and I
Slide 17: Operational results
Operational results Richard Stewart, Head: Southern Africa region Grant Stuart, Head: Recycling Charles Carter, Head: Americas region Mika Seitovirta, Head: Europe region
Slide 18: External operating environment – the ongoing failure of ESKOM
External operating environment – the ongoing failure of ESKOM Intensified Eskom load curtailment impacting the mining industry and the country Hours of national loadshedding* 1949 2 000 • Lower levels of intermittent curtailment manageable 1 500 - Managed through stockpiling and rescheduling energy
Slide 19: SA gold operations – production normalised after industrial action – stable outlook
SA gold operations – production normalised after industrial action – stable outlook SA gold² – Production, AISC & gold price • Gold production2 of 19,301kg (620,541oz) was impacted by industrial action during H1 2022 and the subsequent gradual resumption of operations 600 1 750 000 - Normalised rate
Slide 20: SA PGM operations – consistent leading performance
SA PGM operations – consistent leading performance SA PGM – Underground³ and surface production and AISC² • Production³ of 1,730,808 4Eoz for 2022 impacted by: 1 200 60 000 - Load curtailment impacting productivity - Copper cable theft resulted in stoppages 50 000 - Simunye shaft at Kroondal reachin
Slide 21: PGM curve (cost including capex)
PGM curve (cost including capex) Global PGM cash cost + capex curve (CY22E - at spot) Cumulative annual production (4E Koz) 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000 5 500 6 000 6 500 7 000 7 500 8 000 60 000 60 000 Cash cost and basket Price (R/oz) 50 000 50 000 40 000 Spot PGM ba
Slide 22: US PGM operations - Repositioned to respond to the changing environment
US PGM operations - Repositioned to respond to the changing environment • Robust, de-risked plan completed in July 2022 – greater flexibility • Prudent response to changing environment - Elevated global inflation - Skills shortages - Positioning through the commodity cycles • Lower capital profile •
Slide 23: US PGM operations – repositioned for sustainability, impacted by flood in 2022
US PGM operations – repositioned for sustainability, impacted by flood in 2022 US PGM – Mined production and AISC • Mined 2E PGM production of 421,133 2Eoz, 26% lower 400 2 500 - Regional flooding in July impacted H2 2022 2 000 - H2 2022 production of 191,094 2E oz, 30% lower y-o-y 300 2E PGM koz pr
Slide 24: US PGM recycling operation – the greenest PGMs globally
US PGM recycling operation – the greenest PGMs globally • Recycling volumes down by more than 20% y-o-y PGM recycling, adj. EBITDA and net interest received - Lower vehicle scrapping rates globally 500 60 - Higher logistics costs, tighter margins resulting in collector hoarding 50 - Principled respo
Slide 25: Sandouville nickel refinery
Sandouville nickel refinery • Sandouville nickel refinery in Le Havre, France acquired on 4 February 2022 Production for 2022 year (11 months) in tonnes • Prior to the annual shutdown in October, equipment failures impacted Nickel metal 4,839 production. This led to a slow ramp up after the shutdown
Slide 26: Keliber project approved
Keliber project approved • Permits for Keliber lithium hydroxide refinery received in June 2022 Total Keliber lithium project (100% basis) • 85% interest in Keliber. Approval for Keliber Lithium project during Q4 2022 Average annual production Current expected life • Environmental decision for the R
Slide 27: Low carbon intensity, green lithium production: delivering into key markets
Low carbon intensity, green lithium production: delivering into key markets The Australia-China routes contribute >50% of global • Keliber's proximity to European lithium hydroxide production markets enables low emission but show the highest intensity¹ relative to existing carbon intensity or planne
Slide 28: Capital allocation and financial results
Capital allocation and financial results Charl Keyter, Chief Financial Officer
Slide 29: Disciplined delivery on all constituents of capital allocation framework
Disciplined delivery on all constituents of capital allocation framework • Investing in value accretive operational sustainability • Approved SA project capital ~R6.3bn (US$423m*) and Keliber ~€588m (approx. 50% Debt:50% Equity) • Project capex to date – Burnstone: R1.1bn (US$70m) and K4 R1.1bn (US$
Slide 30: Income statement for the year ended December 2022
Income statement for the year ended 31 December 2022 2022 year 2021 year 2022 year 2021 year 20% decrease in revenue, attributable to all segments Figures are in millions unless otherwise stated (Rm) (Rm) (US$m) (US$m) Revenue 138,288 172,194 8,448 11,643 SA PGM US PGM U/g US PGM recycling SA gold v
Slide 31: Affordable capital profile
Affordable capital profile Expected total capital (excluding Rhyolite ridge) (R billion) • Capital for current gold and PGM operations - SA gold operations mature - ORD and SIB capex to reduce in line with 25 scheduled shaft closures › Burnstone growth capital included, elevated gold capital in firs
Slide 32: Conclusion
Conclusion Neal Froneman, Chief Executive Officer
Slide 33: Well positioned in 2023 for further value creation
Well positioned in 2023 for further value creation Phased production SA gold industrial action in 2022 and subsequent build-up complete build-up completed Next negotiation in July 2024 during Nov 2022 SA PGM – 5 year inflation linked Rustenburg acquisition payments completed resulting in an incremen
Slide 34: Operating guidance for 2023
Operating guidance for 2023⁴ 2023⁴ Production All-in sustaining costs Total capital US PGM operations US$285m - US$300m 500 - 535 koz US$1,400 - 1,500/oz1 (2E mined) (incl. US$25m project capital) US Recycling 450 - 500 koz n/a R41.9m (US$2.6m)² (3E) SA PGM operations R20,800 - 21,800/4E oz R5,400m
Slide 35: Questions?
Questions? Email: ir@sibanyestillwater.com James Wellsted +27(0)83 453 4014 Henrika Ninham +27(0)72 448 5910 Chris Law +44(0)792 312 6200 Tickers: JSE: SSW and NYSE: SBSW Sarel Barnard +27(0)82 376 9445 Website: www.sibanyestillwater.com
Slide 36: Appendices
Appendices
Slide 37: Returning dividends to shareholders continue
Returning dividends to shareholders continue • Dividend policy of 25% to 35% of normalised earnings • 35% dividend declaration on H2 2022 normalised earnings Final Interim Total 2022 2021 Dividend analysis H2 2022 H1 2022 full year full year Rm R9,839 R11,182 R21,021 R38,883 Normalised earnings US$m
Slide 38: Price assumptions on reserves and resources
Price assumptions on reserves and resources The Group complies with both the JSE and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines on commodity prices used in the estimation of Mineral Reserves at all managed operations and projects. An average exchange rate of R16.00/US$ (2021: R15.00/
Slide 39: Competent persons’ declaration
Competent persons’ declaration This Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource declaration represents a condensed and consolidated summary of the full Sibanye-Stillwater Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve declaration available in the Group Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve Report, which will be publi
Slide 40: Action plan - a clear decarbonisation roadmap to 2040
Action plan - a clear decarbonisation roadmap to 2040 Forecasted Group GHG decarbonisation pathway 491 7% (Scope 1 and 2) 90% of 2022 Group GHG emissions (scope 1 and 2) 2022 CO2e due to South African grid-supplied electricity emissions: 2025 SBTi target Revised SBTI target Scope 1 & 2 • Eskom tarif
Slide 41: Overview of the Burnstone project
Overview of the Burnstone project Burnstone Resources 9.1 Moz Reserves 2.2 Moz Development 2022 First production 2024 Life of mine 22 years Regional social and economic benefits • Balfour community - severe socio-economic challenges - Unemployment > 30%; Youth unemployment ~44% • Enhance regional so
Slide 42: Burnstone project – key information
Burnstone project – key information Key statistics (2022 terms) Capital expenditure (R million) 2 500 • Mining Kimberley reef at an average depth of 550m (deepest 1.05km) 2 000 1 500 • Total project capex of ~R2.8bn* 1 000 • Pre-production capex of ~R1.5bn 500 • Average steady state production ~141,
Slide 43: K4 project – unrivalled PGM brownfields project
K4 project – unrivalled PGM brownfields project • Mining both Merensky and UG2 reefs to a depth of 1,287m K4 production profile • Project progress 300 000 - Project progress in-line with schedule - Major infrastructure installations progressing without anticipated delays Ounces (4E oz) 200 000 - Min
Slide 44: K4 project – unrivalled tier 1 PGM project
K4 project – unrivalled tier 1 PGM project Key statistics (2022 terms) LoM - 2023 capital expenditure profile (R million) • Total Project capex* of 1 800 ~R3.4bn 1 500 1 200 • Steady state (2030-2063) 900 ~250koz per annum 600 • ~11.3m 4Eoz produced 300 over ~ 50-year life of mine 0 Original valuati
Slide 45: Indicative DFS production profile – sixteen years from initial five mining areas
Indicative DFS production profile – sixteen years from initial five mining areas • Syväjärvi open pit will be the first mine in production • Rapasaari mine accounts for majority of mineable reserves and production Kokkola lithium hydroxide refinery • These two mines account for more than 12 years pr
Slide 46: Indicative DFS capital profile
Indicative DFS capital profile Indicative capital expenditure profile (Oct 2022 terms) (€ million) 300 Project capex¹ Total (€ million) Sustaining capex² Total (€ million) 250 Refinery 359 Total 138 Concentrator 219 200 Syväjärvi mine 9 150 Total 588 100 50 0 Year 1* Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year
Slide 47: ESOPS | over and above salaries and wages
ESOPS | over and above salaries and wages 2022 2021 Number of beneficiaries = 38,688 Number of beneficiaries = 45,769 Pay-out to beneficiaries¹ = ~R649 million Pay-out to beneficiaries¹ = ~R521 million Summary detail Profit share scheme Beneficiary scheme Shareholding scheme Lonplats ESOP Rustenburg
Slide 48: Establishing strategic battery metals presence close to chosen regional ecosystems
Establishing strategic battery metals presence close to chosen regional ecosystems Close proximity to chosen ecosystems enhances the value proposition Source: CIC energiGUNE 47
Slide 49: We have built a team with robust and specialised skills and experience
We have built a team with robust and specialised skills and experience STRATEGIC DIFFERENTIATORS Board of Directors C-Suite Commercial Organisation CEO, IR and CFO and Technical Sustainability Legal and growth and STRATEGIC FOUNDATION corporate office Group finance development Group HR Regions SA Am
Slide 50: 2022 PGM markets characterised by uncertainty and volatility
2022 PGM markets characterised by uncertainty and volatility • Supply chain constraints and chip shortages eased, however light 3E prices (indexed) vehicle production of 80.6m units still well below pre-covid levels 180 as inflationary pressures and China’s zero-covid policy weighed on demand 160 •
Slide 51: Demand expected to recover while supply risks persist
Demand expected to recover while supply risks persist • Light vehicle production forecast to increase to 82.5m units as China Market balances (koz) re-opens and a softer macro-economic landing is now expected 700 • 12% BEV market share expected, up from 10% in 2022 640 • Pt jewellery demand forecast
Slide 52: Significant investment in lithium supply needed to meet BEV demand projections
Significant investment in lithium supply needed to meet BEV demand projections Lithium supply Lithium demand LCE kt LCE kt Probable projects 504 2021 466 650 2022 679 Low-risk possible +26.3% projects 772 2023 822 p.a. Medium-risk possible projects 827 2024 1 026 836 2025 1 280 1,770 1,345 1,198 819
Slide 53: Battery metals – Continued strong EV demand pull
Battery metals – Continued strong EV demand pull • Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales growth outperformed overall BEV sales growth inelastic to battery commodity prices in 2022? light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales growth. Globally, full year BEV sales 1 000 250 in 2022 were up almost 60% year-on-year C
Slide 54: ROI driven through counter cyclical investments
ROI driven through counter cyclical investments Commodity prices at them of announcing PGM and lithium acquisitions (rebased to 100) 1 000 85% stake in Keliber Total investment in PGMs of R47bn (US$3.4bn)¹ at investment of €368m (R6.4bn) 900 800 Relative price performance (%) Aquarius & Stillwater L
Slide 55: Marikana renewal process
Marikana renewal process • Marikana Renewal continues with engagement with key stakeholders 1608 Memorial Trust to further honour • Delivering on commitments to widows and families the memory of those who passed away: - Families have formed Task Teams to lead process of healing Number of beneficiari
Slide 56: Affordable capital profile (US dollar)
Affordable capital profile (US dollar) Expected total capital (excluding Rhyolite ridge) • Capital for current gold and PGM operations 1.4 - SA gold operations mature - ORD and SIB capex to reduce in line with scheduled shaft closures 1.2 › Burnstone growth capital included, elevated gold capital in