Veolia Environnement Sa · EURONEXT:VIE
Veolia Environnement Sa — Mitigating Methane Emissions: From Science to Innovative Solutions (conference, 9 November (November 2015)
30 slides from Veolia Environnement Sa's conference presentation, Nov 9, 2015
Slide 1: Methane in the Earth System: Natural Cycles and Future Changes
Mitigating Mathane Emissions: From Science to Innovative Solutions Methane in the Earth System: Natural Cycles and Future Changes Thomas Stocker Climate and Environmental Physics University of Bern, Switzerland Thanks to Renato Sphani
Slide 2: Methane in the Earth System: Natural Cycles and Future Evolution
Mitigating Mathane Emissions: From Science to Innovative Solutions Methane in the Earth System: Natural Cycles and Future Evolution 1. What the past tells us 2. The CH4 cycle 3. Future changes ─ and surprises? 4. Conclusions
Slide 3: Antarctic ice cores provide greenhouse gas records
Antarctic ice cores provide greenhouse gas records EPICA: 1995-2005
Slide 4: 800,000 years of CO2 and CH4 variations
800,000 years of CO2 and CH4 variations (Siegenthaler et al., 2005; Lüthi et al., 2008; Loulergue et al., 2008)
Slide 5: Anthropogenic increase of CO2, CH4, and N2O
Anthropogenic increase of CO2 , CH4 , and N2O (IPCC 2014) CO2: 40% CH4: 150% higher than pre-industrial N2O: 20%
Slide 6: Methane in the Earth System: Natural Cycles and Future Evolution
Mitigating Mathane Emissions: From Science to Innovative Solutions Methane in the Earth System: Natural Cycles and Future Evolution 1. What the past tells us 2. The CH4 cycle 3. Future changes ─ and surprises? 4. Conclusions
Slide 7: Methane in the Earth System
Methane in the Earth System Sinks Potential Sources (IPCC, 2013, Fig. 6.2)
Slide 8: CH4: The second most important anthropogenic GHG
CH4: The second most important anthropogenic GHG 32% (IPCC, 2013, Fig. SPM.5 simplified)
Slide 9: Methane in the Earth System: Natural Cycles and Future Evolution
Mitigating Mathane Emissions: From Science to Innovative Solutions Methane in the Earth System: Natural Cycles and Future Evolution 1. What the past tells us 2. The CH4 cycle 3. Future changes ─ and surprises? 4. Conclusions
Slide 10: Headline Statements on 2 pages
21 Headline Statements on 2 pages Continued emission of greenhouse will cause further warming and long-lasting changes [...], increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.
Slide 11: IPCC (2013) wetland CH4 emissions projections
IPCC (2013) RCP8.5 ... there is medium confidence that emissions of (IPCC 2013, Fig. 6.36) CH4 from wetlands are likely to increase in the future under elevated CO2 and warmer climate. RCP2.6
Slide 12: Temperature and precipitation change 2081-2100
Temperature change Precipitation change 2081-2100 2081-2100 RCP8.5 IPCC 2013, Annex I
Slide 13: Carbon storage in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes
Carbon storage in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes (Schuur et al., 2015, Nature) Top 3-meter permafrost carbon pool: 1,035 ±150 GtC
Slide 14: Carbon storage in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes
Carbon storage in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes (Schuur et al., 2015, Nature) Deep carbon pool in Yedoma region: 200 to 450 GtC
Slide 15: Carbon release from thawing permafrost
Carbon release from thawing permafrost Anaerobic + CH4 Aerobic + CO2 Elberling et al., 2013
Slide 16: Carbon release from methane hydrates
Carbon release from methane hydrates (Kretschmer et al., 2015) Methane hydrate inventory: >1,150 GtC
Slide 17: Carbon release from thawing permafrost
Carbon release from thawing permafrost Koven et al. 2015 70 ±40 GtC (Schuur et al., 2015, Nature) Cumulative Emissions (GtC)
Slide 18: Sources of methane changes in the past
Sources of methane changes in the past Baumgartner et al., 2012
Slide 19: Interpolar difference in methane records
(Baumgartner et al. 2012) Interpolar Difference release from tropics dominant
Slide 20: Isotopic signal of CH4
(Bock et al. 2010) Isotopic signal of CH4 CH4 fingerprint of boreal wetlands δD(CH4)
Slide 21: Methane in the Earth System: Natural Cycles and Future Evolution
Mitigating Mathane Emissions: From Science to Innovative Solutions Methane in the Earth System: Natural Cycles and Future Evolution 1. What the past tells us 2. The CH4 cycle 3. Future changes ─ and surprises? 4. Conclusions
Slide 22: Conclusions
Conclusions IPCC 2013: Overall, there is medium confidence that emissions of CH4 from wetlands are likely to increase in the future under elevated CO2 and warmer climate. There is no indication currently, that carbon release will be catastrophic, neither from land nor from the ocean. Ocean war
Slide 23: University of Bern Oeschger Centre
u ° Untversitar BERN OESCHGER CENTRE
Slide 24: Carbon storage in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes
Carbon storage in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes
Slide 25: Global mean surface temperature change from 1986-2005
Global mean surface temperature change from 1986-2005 IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.7a Continued emissions will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system.
Slide 26: Model experiments: percentage change of global CH4 emissions
LPJ-Bern CLM4Me DLEM IAP-RAS LPJ-WSL ORCHIDEE SDGVM WETCHIMP experiments (a) mCO, mT Gedney, IS92a (b) Shindell, 2xCO, (b) Eliseev, SRES A2 (b) Volodin, SRES A1B (b) Ringeval, SRES A2 (a) Stocker, RCP2.6 (a) Stocker, RCP8.5 (a) IPCC AR5 Working Group | Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
Slide 27: Change in average surface temperature (1986-2005 to 2081-2100)
Change in average surface temperature (1986-2005 to 2081-2100) RCP8.5 IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.8a Continued emissions will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system.
Slide 28: Change in average precipitation (1986-2005 to 2081-2100)
Change in average precipitation (1986-2005 to 2081-2100) RCP8.5 IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.8b The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, [...]
Slide 29: Anthropogenic methane sources (2000s)
Anthropogenic methane sources (2000s) Global Carbon Project 2013; Figure based on Kirschke et al. 2013
Slide 30: The "methane pause" from 1998 to 2006
The "methane pause" from 1998 to 2006 (IPCC, 2013, Fig. 6.3d)