Slide 1: The Mosaic Company August 2015
The Mosaic Company August 2015 1
Slide 2: Forward-looking statements
Click to edit Master title style 2 This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as the Ma’aden joint ve
Slide 3: Expect Farm Economics to Stabilize
9.00 9.30 9.60 9.90 10.20 10.50 US$ BU New Crop Soybean Price Daily Close Nov '15 Contract Source: CME Expect Farm Economics to Stabilize 3 Probability of a third- in-a-row outsized crop is diminishing. Grain and Oilseed prices recovered and stabilized. El Niño still poses a threat. No surpr
Slide 4: Good Start to 2015
Good Start to 2015 Brazil India China North America H1 4 2015 Normal spring season High beginning inventories Key Points Delayed demand Real volatility Credit program Visible demand increase Ample monsoon Actively shipping against contract Source: Mosaic
Slide 5: North America: Expect Good Fall Season
North America: Expect Good Fall Season 2 5 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Plant Nutrient Affordability Plant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index Affordability Metric Average Source: Weekly Price Publications, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic
Slide 6: Brazil: Credit + Stable Soybean Prices = Strong H2
6 Brazil: Credit + Stable Soybean Prices = Strong H2 Soybean Prices Farm Credit History 94 116 133 128 19 20 24 60 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 BRL billion Market Interest Rate Subsidized Interest rate Subsidized Interest rate O
Slide 7: Yield Growth Required To Keep Up With Demand
Yield Growth Required To Keep Up With Demand 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 775 800 825 850 875 900 925 950 975 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 MT Ha Mil Ha Source: USDA and Mosaic World Harvested Area and Average Yield Actual Area Forecast Area Actual Yield Required Yield 1980-10 Yie
Slide 8: Why Mosaic?
Why Mosaic?
Slide 9: Visible Strategic Progress
Visible Strategic Progress 2 9 $1.01 $1.08 $0.17 $0.21 $0.06 $0.16 $0.06 $0.16 $0.43 $0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 $1.80 Q2 2013 P Volume K Cash Cost/mt SG&A Share Count P Price K Price All Other* Q2 2015 Q2 2013 EPS vs. Q2 2015 Benefit of Mosaic’s Strategic Initiatives: $0.6
Slide 10: Potash: Scale and Improving Cost Position
Large and Low Cost Producer -- K3 Optionality Upside 10 Potash: Scale and Improving Cost Position Top 10 Potash Producers in 2014 Source: CRU and Mosaic Mosaic Sask 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 ($/Tonne) Million Tonnes 2014 MOP Industry Cost Curve FOB Port Brine Based on 2014 prod
Slide 11: Maintaining Profitability Despite Lower Pricing
$129 $89 $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 MOP Cash Cost/Prodcution tonne Avg. MOP Selling Price/Sales tonne Selling Price minus Cash Costs Visible Strategic Progress $213 $191 Maintaining Profitability Despite Lower Pricing 11
Slide 12: Potash: Investing for Growth
Potash: Investing for Growth * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and uncertainties including those stated in the Safe Harbor Statement. As of March, 2015 and updated for Canadian Resource Taxes and Royalties in May of 2015. Source: Mosaic 12 $923 $800 $850 $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 $1,100 2014
Slide 13: Phosphates: Scale and Strong Cost Position
Phosphates: Scale and Strong Cost Position Largest and Lowest Quartile Producer 13 Top 10 Phosphate Producers in 2014 Source: CRU and Mosaic Based on 2014 production Mosaic's P 2 O 5 production includes CF Industries' phosphate business P 2 O 5 production based on PACID and SSP production OCP P 2 O
Slide 14: Market Leadership Benefiting Margins
Market Leadership Benefiting Margins 14 $115 $142 $436 $450 $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Cash Margin (GM + DD&A)/Tonne DAP Price (FOB plant) 1. Lower Input Costs 2. Higher Cash Margins $321 $308 Improving Profitab
Slide 15: Phosphates: Investing for Growth
Phosphates: Investing for Growth 15 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,600 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Phosphate Gross Margin Impact $1,466 $937 ($ in millions) CF Industries Phosphates MicroEssentials® Ma’aden Raw Materials +56% * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and u
Slide 16: Distribution Strength
Distribution Strength ARCTIC OCEAN PACIFIC OCEAN ATLANTIC WW" 5 OCEAN
Slide 17: International Distribution: Investing in Growth
International Distribution: Investing in Growth $147 $256 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220 $240 $260 $280 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F International Distribution Gross Margin ($ in millions) Incremental MicroEssentials® & Volume Growth ADM Distribution Tonnes +74% * Assumptions in Appendix. Subjec
Slide 18: Capital Deployment
Capital Deployment 18
Slide 19: Capital Management Priorities
$47 per Share Capital Management Priorities 19 Expect to Continue to Generate Strong Cash Flow and Excess Cash Maintain Strong Financial Foundation Sustain Assets & Dividend Grow Business Return
Slide 20: Track Record of Dividend Growth
$1.10 $0.0 $0.2 $0.4 $0.6 $0.8 $1.0 $1.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F A Track Record of Dividend Growth ($ per share) Dividend per Share 450% +10% Source: Mosaic 20
Slide 21: Meaningful Share Repurchases
Meaningful Share Repurchases $1.2 $2.8 $0.6 -$0.2 $0.3 $0.8 $1.3 $1.8 $2.3 $2.8 $3.3 $3.8 $4.3 $4.8 2011 2014 2015 YTD Completed $500 Million Accelerated $1.0 Billion Authorization Remaining ($ in billions) + Source: Mosaic 21
Slide 22: Smart Capital Deployment
22 Smart Capital Deployment Investment for Growth Shareholder Returns Capital Stewardship Source: Mosaic
Slide 23: Leverage to Cyclical Improvement
Leverage to Cyclical Improvement Significant Free Cash Flow Leverage (After Dividends) * Assumptions in Appendix. Subject to risks and uncertainties including those stated in the Safe Harbor Statement. As of March, 2015 Source: Mosaic 23 $437 $617 $506 $1,025 $1,139 $814 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000
Slide 24: Investment Thesis
Click to edit Master title style 24 • In this cyclical industry, the positive secular trends continue. • Long-term value creation is predicated on effective capital deployment. • Capital deployment near the trough of the cycle maximizes value creation: – Depressed investment values – Increasing leve
Slide 25: Thank you
; ae “ TLhank-you
Slide 26: Appendix
26 Appendix
Slide 27: Potash Supply and Demand
_ Potash Supply and Demand i Tonnes oP Capacty, sete and Operating Rate apres ~ 95% ° 90% ° 85% ~ 80% - 75% ° 70% . 85% : 60% : 55% 10 41 12 13 14 15F 416F 417F 18F 19F 20F meme Operational Capacity mmmm Production Operating Rate Mosaic
Slide 28: Market Update: North America
Market Update: North America 28 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.2 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes KCl North America MOP Shipments 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.6 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes North America DAP/MAP/ME/TSP Shipments Source: Mosaic Estimates
Slide 29: Market Update: China
Market Update: China 2 29 3.9 3.8 4.2 5.3 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes KCl China MOP Imports 2.4 4.7 5.7 4.3 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports Source: Mosaic Estimates
Slide 30: Market Update: India
Market Update: India 2 30 1.6 1.8 2.7 3.2 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes KCl India MOP Imports 1.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes India DAP Imports Source: Mosaic Estimates
Slide 31: Market Update: Brazil
Market Update: Brazil 2 31 4.6 3.7 4.3 4.5 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes KCl Brazil MOP Imports 2.7 2.2 3.2 2.6 2014 2015 2014 2015F Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Million Tonnes Brazil DAP/MAP/ME/TSP Imports Source: Mosaic Estimates
Slide 32: Phosphates forecast assumptions
32 Phosphates: Ma’aden JV contribution embedded in gross margin, actual reporting is as an equity investment under U.S. GAAP. ADM business includes an incremental, 2 million tonnes of blended product plus synergies. Raw material savings result of increased NH3 manufacturing from de-bottlenecki
Slide 33: CY2014 Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations Reconciliation
CY2014 Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations Reconciliation Cash flow from operations (GAAP) $2,294 Changes in working capital (300) Loss on write-down of Carlsbad (125) Unrealized loss on derivatives (35) Change in value of share repurchase agreement (60) Amortization of acquired inventory (49) Specia
Slide 34: Cash flow, capex and dividends forecast
Source: Mosaic 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Cash Flow from Operations $1,726(a) $2,198 $2,325 $2,594 $2,633 Capex ($906) ($1,204) ($1,415) ($1,129) ($1,034) Dividends ($383) ($401) ($420) ($440) ($461) FCF Less Dividends $437 $593 $490 $1,025 $1,138 (a) adjusted, reconciled on prior page Tabular Rep
Slide 35: Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region
35 Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region (April 30, 2015) Million Tonnes DAP/MAP/TSP 2014R Feb Low 2015F Feb High 2015F April Low 2015F April High 2015F Comments China 21.5 21.8 22.1 21.8 22.2 Moderate phosphate demand growth is forecast this year due to high crop prices and profitable farm
Slide 36: Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region
36 Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region (April 30, 2015) Muriate of Potash Million Tonnes (KCl) 2014R Feb Low 2015F Feb High 2015F Apr Low 2015F Apr High 2015F Comments China 13.8 12.7 13.1 14.0 14.2 Implied shipments (P+M-X) jumped to 13.8 mmt last year and are projected to increase to 14.0-1