Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP

Thai Oil Public — Q2 2021 Earnings Presentation

53 slides from Thai Oil Public's earnings presentation, Aug 16, 2021

  1. Slide 1: Q2 & 1H/21 Analyst Presentation

    Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q2 & 1H/21 Analyst Presentation 16 August 2021 Time : 10:00 - 12:00 hrs. Online Channel : TOP IR Application, Facebook Live, MST

  2. Slide 2: Disclaimer

    -2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad

  3. Slide 3: Presentation Agenda (Q2 & 1H/21)

    -3- Presentation Agenda (Q2 &1H/21) KEY HIGHLIGHTS PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OUTLOOK FINAL REMARKS

  4. Slide 4: Key Highlights

    -4- KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  5. Slide 5: Q2/21 Recovery On The Way

    -5- Q2/21 Recovery On The Way Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market & Business Strategic Direction Key Events COVID-19 Pandemic Recovery Global Oil Demand Recovery Strong Downstream Markets Vaccination rate • Rising crude prices amid demand • Improving Aromatic & LAB Markets Share

  6. Slide 6: Continuous Business Excellence

    -6--6- Continuous Business Excellence Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market & Business Strategic Direction Key Events Operational Commercial Financial • Optimize overall utilization rates • Maximize domestic & Indochina sales • Affirmed Credit Rating • In line with TOP's strategic

  7. Slide 7: Q2 & 1H/21 Performance

    -7--7- Q2 & 1H/21 Performance Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market & Business Strategic Direction Key Events QoQ Dubai rose from $64.4/bbl to $71.6/bbl TOP Group Net Profit YoY Dubai rose from $40.8/bbl $71.6/bbl Crude • Oil demand recovery due to increasing global vaccination rat

  8. Slide 8: Thaioil's 2021 Strategic Direction: Building on Our Strong Foundation

    -8--8- Thaioil’s 2021 Strategic Direction : Building on Our Strong Foundation Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market & Business Strategic Direction Key Events Vision Empowering Human Life through Sustainable Energy and Chemicals To be a competitive Energy & Chemicals company that St

  9. Slide 9: 3-Pronged Strategy (3V)

    -9--9- 3-Pronged Strategy (3V) Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market & Business Strategic Direction Key Events Value Maximization : Value Enhancement : Value Diversification Integrated Crude to Chemicals Integrated Value Chain Management “Know your customers & “Stable Earnings & Ne

  10. Slide 10: Olefins Investment

    -10- -10- Olefins Investment Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market & Business Strategic Direction Key Events Transaction Summary Key Investment Highlight #1 Indonesia 15.38% stake in CAP The Largest & Dominant CAP Integrated Petrochemical Strategic Fit A Strategic Producer in Indon

  11. Slide 11: Q2/21 Key Events

    -11- -11- Q2/21 Key Events Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Market & Business Strategic Direction Key Events Thaioil’s 60th Anniversary CSR Activities Awards & Recognitions Olefins Investment in Indonesia Healthcare support for medical workforce • 4 Regional Awards from Alpha Southea

  12. Slide 12: Performance Analysis

    -12- PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

  13. Slide 13: Refinery: Slightly Lower Utilization as Softening Domestic Oil Demand

    -13- Refinery: Slightly Lower Utilization as Softening Domestic Oil Demand Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate Mogas Jet/Kero Gasoil Total

  14. Slide 14: Refinery: Softening Mkt GRM Pressured by Higher Crude Premium

    -14- Refinery: Softening Mkt GRM Pressured by Higher Crude Premium Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2020 2021 2020 Q1/21 Q2/21 1H/20 1H/21 $/bbl Q1 Q2

  15. Slide 15: Aromatic: Higher Contribution Supported by BZ & LAB Margins

    -15- Aromatic: Higher Contribution Supported by BZ & LAB Margins Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Aromatic Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2020 2021 2020 Q1/21 Q2/21 1H/20 1H/21 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 1H Q3TD* F

  16. Slide 16: Base Oil: Robust Contribution Supported by Strong Lube Spread

    -16- Base Oil: Robust Contribution Supported by Strong Lube Spread Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2020 2021 2020 Q1/21 Q2/21 1H/20 1H/21 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 1

  17. Slide 17: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost

    -17- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Interest Expens

  18. Slide 18: Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group

    -18- Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP (4) (5) 74% 100% Power & Steam Sales Electricity(1) 2,544 (4) Thaioil Power(TP)

  19. Slide 19: Performance Breakdown

    -19- -19- Performance Breakdown Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Petrochemical & (2) Others & (3) Consolidated Stock Gain/ Consolidated Petroleum Power Net Profit Net Profit Lube Base(1) New Business (incl. Stock G/(L) (L

  20. Slide 20: Q2 & 1H/21 TOP Group Consolidated P&L

    -20- Q2 & 1H/21 TOP Group Consolidated P&L Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others (Unit : MB) Q2/21 Q1/21 QoQ+/(-) Q2/20 YoY+/(-) 6M/21 6M/20 YoY+/(-) Represented Represented (A) (C) Sales Revenue 78,120 73,449 4,671 49,246 28,

  21. Slide 21: 1H/21 Consolidated Cash Flow

    -21- 1H/21 Consolidated Cash Flow Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others 1H/21 1H/20 1H/21 1H/20 (Unit: MB) Represent Represent Operating Cash Flow (CFO) 1,059 (899) Investing Cash Flow (CFI) (11,745) (66,440) Net income 5,731

  22. Slide 22: Q2/21 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios

    -22- Q2/21 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Refinery Aromatic Base Oil GIM Power All business F/S & others Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 30 Jun 21 (Unit: million THB) 306,188 320,316 Total IBD

  23. Slide 23: 2H/2021 Outlook

    23- --23- 2H/2021 OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Refinery • Aromatics • Base Oil & Bitumen

  24. Slide 24: Stable Oil Price on Improved Demand Amid Higher OPEC+ Supply in 2H/21

    24- --24- Stable Oil Price on Improved Demand Amid Higher OPEC+ Supply in 2H/21 Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatics Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A High Global Vaccination Coverage Rate amid High Delta New Cases B Expected Higher Global Demand with Limited Lockdown %

  25. Slide 25: Increasing Refinery Margin on Recovering Economic after Easing Restrictions

    Increasing Refinery Margin on Recovering Economic after Easing Restrictions -25- -25- Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatics Lube&Bitumen Conclusion Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 8.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.1 5.9 4.3 3.7 3.2 3.5 3.1 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.8 2.1 0.0 0

  26. Slide 26: Improving Gasoline Demand on Higher Global Mobility; Recovering Jet Demand

    Improving Gasoline Demand on Higher Global Mobility after Easing Lockdown 26- --26- Recovering Jet Demand on Re-Opening Border Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatics Lube&Bitumen Conclusion Higher Gasoline Demand in 2H/21 on Easing Lockdown Higher EU/US Demand foll

  27. Slide 27: Gradually Improving Economic Activities to Support Global Gasoil Demand

    Gradually Improving Economic Activities to Support Global Gasoil Demand 27- --27- Improving Fuel Oil Market on Higher Trading Activities and ME Summer Demand Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatics Lube&Bitumen Conclusion Improving Gasoil Demand on Economic Recovery

  28. Slide 28: Recovering Domestic Demand in 2H/21 amid COVID-19 Uncertainty

    -28- Recovering Domestic Demand in 2H/21 amid COVID-19 Uncertainty Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatics Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A Higher Gasoline Demand on Transportation Activities Improvement B Lower Jet Demand on Drop in Flight Movements Gasoline Demand Jet De

  29. Slide 29: More Aromatics Supply from Mega Capacity amid Good Demand Growth

    -29- More Aromatics Supply from Mega Capacity amid Good Demand Growth Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatics Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A Short MoreTerm SupportAddition Capacity by SM Run Rate amid and LowerDemand Recovered BZ Stock B Improved market inAddition More C

  30. Slide 30: Higher Base Oil Capacity Addition and Easing Tight Feedstock Supply Situation

    -30- Higher Base Oil Capacity Addition and Easing Tight Feedstock Supply Situation Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatics Lube&Bitumen Conclusion A Higher Base Oil Supply in 2H/21 B Lower Asian Plant Maintenance in 2H/21 to Ease Gr.1 Supply Supply Disruption MTON A

  31. Slide 31: 2H/21 Outlook Conclusion

    -31- 2H/21 Outlook Conclusion (vs. 1H/21) Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks Crude Refinery Aromatics Lube&Bitumen Conclusion Crude Oil Supportive Oil Market on Improved Demand due to Widely Vaccine Roll Out amid Higher OPEC+ Supply Increasing Refinery Margin on Gradually Expanding Eco

  32. Slide 32: Final Remarks

    -32- FINAL REMARKS

  33. Slide 33: Looking Forward

    -33- Looking Forward Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks 2H/21 Market Stable crude oil prices on improving demand amid higher OPEC+ supply Market GRM improves on higher oil demand from less COVID-19 restriction and lower crude premium Robust aromatic & LAB and lube contribution Optimize

  34. Slide 34: Looking Forward: 2021-2023 Roadmap

    -34- Looking Forward Key Highlights Performance Outlook Final Remarks 2021-2023 Roadmap 2018 – 2021 2021 – 2025 2024 – 2030 Accelerate the Reform Building on Our Strong Foundation : IC2C Post CFP : New Round of Growth • Key investment made • Deliveries of investment : CFP & CAP2 • Realize strong ear

  35. Slide 35: Appendix

    -35- APPENDIX • Dividend Payment • CAPEX • Financial Performance • Optimised & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products

  36. Slide 36: Dividend Payment

    Dividend -36- Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/Share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend 12.18 10.40 9.19 9.40 8.66 7.82 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 4.57 4.97 4.39 2.75 3.00 3.

  37. Slide 37: TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan

    CAPEX -37- TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Updated as of July 2021 Estimated Budgeting for Project Investment Plan 2021 - 2024 CFP project * 1,902 Total Ongoing CAPEX 201 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 48 Infrastructure Improvement ( i.e. Jetty

  38. Slide 38: Q2 & 1H/21 Financial Performance

    Financial Performance -38- Q2 &1H/21- Financial Performance TOP Group Net Profit Gross Refining Margin - GRM Unit : million THB (MB) Q1/21 Q2/21 1H/20 1H/21 $/bbl Q1/21 Q2/21 1H/20 1H/21 3,360 MB 2,123 MB (11,274) MB 5,483 MB Market GRM 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 Stock 6.2 4.9 (7.3) 5.5 38 Gain/(Loss) 98 Stock

  39. Slide 39: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance

    Crude & Production -39- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Reference Domestic demand for TOP configuration* Crude output Price petroleum

  40. Slide 40: Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition in Medium Term

    CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME -40- -40- Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition in Medium Term Asia Pacific and Middle East Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Key Projects : New Addition Japan India Vietnam Country Company CD

  41. Slide 41: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin

    World GRM -41- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin $/BBL $/BBL SINGAPORE GRM EU – US Margins 70 15 60 10 50 5 40 0 30 20 -5 10 -10 0 -15 -10 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 SING CRACK SING HYDRO BRENT CRACK BRENT HYDRO WTI CRA

  42. Slide 42: Global Crude Oil Inventories

    Inventories -42- Global Crude Oil Inventories MBBL U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) MBBL Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma 600 Source : EIA 80 Source : EIA 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg

  43. Slide 43: Global Gasoline Inventories

    Inventories -43- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL Source : EIA MBBL 280 20 Source : IE Singapore 260 240 10 220 200 180 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg 16-20 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021

  44. Slide 44: Global Middle Distillate Inventories

    Inventories -44- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL 200 Source : EIA 20 Source : IE Singapore 180 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg 16-20 5yr-r

  45. Slide 45: Global Fuel Oil Inventories

    Inventories -45- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : IE Singapore Source : EIA 50 40 30 40 20 30 10 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 avg 16-20 5yr-range 20

  46. Slide 46: China's Refined Product Exports

    Inventories -46- China’s Refined Product Exports China’s Gasoline Exports China’s Gasoil Exports KBD KBD Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 600 800 500 700 600 400 500 300 400 200 300 200 100 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2020 2

  47. Slide 47: Domestic LPG Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -47- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight KT/Day 2021 2019 2018 2020 • In 1H’21, LPG demand increased by 10.2% YoY mainly following the increase in industrial and petrochemical sectors. LPG 20 demand in the industry and petrochemical sect

  48. Slide 48: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -48- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/GASOHOL Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 1H’21, Gasoline demand was slightly increased by 0.2% YoY 2021 2020 2019 2018 to an average of 29.7 MML/day while Gasohol demand 36 increased by

  49. Slide 49: Domestic Jet Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -49- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight MML/Day 2021 2020 2019 2018 • In 1H’21, Jet consumption decreased by 53.1% YoY. Although 24 the demand was recovered in Mar-Apr’21, the demand started to decrease again in May’21 as the COVID-19 i

  50. Slide 50: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -50- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Gasoil Demand Highlight MML/Day 2021 2020 2019 2018 • In 1H’21, Gasoil demand increased by 0.2% YoY. After Gasoil 72 70.5 demand was supported by the economic improvement in Feb- 69.3 Mar’21, the Thai ec

  51. Slide 51: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand

    Thailand petroleum demand by products -51- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand 2021 2020 2019 2018 Fuel Oil Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 1H’21, Fuel Oil consumption rose by 19.6% YoY, as the 8 demand in the transportation sector, which accounted for 57.1% 5.9 5.6 of total Fuel Oil dem

  52. Slide 52: Thank You

    -52- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976

  53. Slide 53: We Appreciate Your Feedback

    We Appreciate Your Feedback We would appreciate if you take just a minutes of your time to share your thoughts. Your feedback will help us make our next arrangement even better. Thank you for taking our survey.

Thai Oil Public Company — Q2 2021 Earnings Presentation on 6ix