U.s. Global Investors, Inc. · NASDAQ:GROW
U.s. Global Investors — pres cycle
16 slides from U.s. Global Investors's investor presentation, 2003
Slide 1: The Presidential Election Cycle
s P E C I A L R E P O R T The Presidential ELECTION ★ CYCLE Vincent A. Colicchio, CFA, MBA U.S. Global Investors, Inc.
Slide 2: Dear Chairman's Circle Shareholder
Dear Chairman’s Circle Shareholder, The presidential election cycle will be a key driver for the next 18 months. The four-year political cycle appears to create a four-year economic cycle. When reviewing the historic performance following every midterm election, it is quite fascinating to take note
Slide 3: Table of Contents
Table of CONTENTS Historical Bull-Market Years 3 Pre-Presidential Election Years: No Losers in 64 Years 3 Market Charts of Pre-Presidential Election Years, 1979 – 1999 4 Pre-Presidential Election Year Record, 1991 – 1999 5 Pre-Presidential Election Year Record, 1983 – 1987 6 Pre-Presidential Electio
Slide 4: Historical Bull-Market Years: No Losers in 64 Years
Historical Bull- MARKET YEARS Number of % of Time S&P 500 Average Years Since WWII Market Rises % Performance Overall 14 92.8% 17.4% Republican 7 100.0% 17.6% President Republican President’s 5* 100.0% 22.5% First Term *Note: In August of 1974, Gerald Ford assumed the Presidency following the resign
Slide 5: Market Charts of Pre-Presidential Election Years, 1979-1999
Market Charts of Pre-Presidential Election Years 1979 - 1999 CARTER-1979 REAGAN-1983 REAGAN-1987 900 1325 2685 875 1250 2470 850 1175 2255 825 1100 2040 800 1025 1825 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D BUSH-1991 CLINTON-1995 CLINTON-1999 3200 5400 12000 3050 4975
Slide 6: Pre-Presidential Election Year Record, 1991-1999
Pre-Presidential Election Year 1991 - 1999 1991 Bush (R) Dow +20.3%, S&P +26.3%, Nasdaq +56.8%. 1995 Clinton (D) Dow +33.5%, S&P +34.1%, Nasdaq +39.9%. 1999 Clinton (D) Millennial fever crescendo: Dow +25.2%, S&P +19.5%, Nasdaq +85.6%. Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac 2003 Data: The 48-month period en
Slide 7: Pre-Presidential Election Year Record, 1983-1987
Pre-Presidential Election Year Record 1983 - 1987 1983 Reagan (R) Dow +20.3%, S&P +17.3%, Nasdaq +19.9%. 1987 Reagan (R) Dow +2.3%, S&P +2.0% despite October meltdown, Nasdaq -5.4%. Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac 2003 Data: The 48-month period ending December 31, 1983, and 1987, respectively. REAGAN
Slide 8: Pre-Presidential Election Year Record, 1971-1979
Pre-Presidential Election Year Record 1971 - 1979 1971 Nixon (R) Dow +6.1%, S&P +10.8%, Nasdaq +27.4%. 1975 Ford (R) Dow +38.3%, S&P +31.5%, Nasdaq +29.8%. 1979 Carter (D) Dow +4.2%, S&P +12.3%, Nasdaq +28.1%. Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac 2003 Data: The 48-month period ending December 31, 1971, 19
Slide 9: Pre-Presidential Election Year Record, 1963-1967
Pre-Presidential Election Year Record 1963 - 1967 1963 Kennedy/Johnson (D) Dow +17.0%, S&P +18.9%. 1967 Johnson (D) Dow +15.2%, S&P +20.1%. Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac 2003 Data: The 48-month period ending December 31, 1963, and 1967, respectively. KENNEDY- JOHNSON-1963 JOHNSON-1967 780 930 745 8
Slide 10: Pre-Presidential Election Year Record, 1915-1959
Pre-Presidential Election Year Record 1915 - 1959 1915 Wilson (D) World War I in Europe, but U.S. stocks up 81.7%. 1919 Wilson (D) Post-Armistice 45.5% gain through November 3rd top. Dow up 30.5% for year. 1923 Harding/Coolidge (R) Teapot Dome scandal a depressant, Dow loses 3.3%. 1927 Coolidge (R)
Slide 11: A History of Healthy Rebounds
A History of HEALTHY REBOUNDS • S&P 500 Index performance from midterm election-year lows to following-year highs since 1934 • In addition, Ned Davis Research indicates the median gain for the S&P 500 from midterm election year lows to following year highs is 51.2 percent. Low Date S&P 500 Value Hig
Slide 12: Key Drivers of the Midterm Election Cycle
Key Drivers of the Midterm ELECTION CYCLE • Sitting presidents tend to focus on the least favorable aspects of their agenda in the first half of their terms and economically favorable aspects in the second half. • Wars, recessions and bear markets have historically been concentrated in the first hal
Slide 13: Investment Themes
Investment THEMES • Republicans control the Administration and Congress. The President’s stimulus package should stimulate capital investment, thereby improving the outlook for several industries. • Deficit spending may increase dramatically due to the cost of invigorating the economy, war with Iraq
Slide 14: Investment Opportunities and Risks
Investment O PPORTUNITIES • Deficit spending and lower real interest rates push the U.S. dollar lower. • Weaker U.S. dollar makes quality American products more attractive on the global scene. • Therefore, invest in companies that benefit from a weaker dollar and generate growth in earnings for thei
Slide 15: What We Offer
What We Offer U.S. Global offers several different equity funds, which are positioned to ride this presidential election cycle. It’s important to remember that different asset classes, e.g. blue-chip value stocks, will perform differently than mid-cap growth stocks or Asian growth stocks. Also, past
Slide 16: 1-800-US-FUNDS www.usfunds.com
For more complete information about any U.S. Global fund, including charges and expenses, obtain a prospectus by visiting us at www.usfunds.com or call 1-800-US-FUNDS. Read it carefully before you invest or send money. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc. This article should not be considered