Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. · ASX:TGF
Tribeca Global Natural Resources — Investor Presentation (June 2020)
29 slides from Tribeca Global Natural Resources's investor presentation, Jun 15, 2020
Slide 1: ASX cover announcement: Investor Update Presentation
15 June 2020 For personal use only ASX Market Announcements ASX Limited 20 Bridge Street Sydney NSW 2000 BY ELECTRONIC LODGEMENT Investor Update Presentation Please find attached Investor Update Presentation. The information contained in this document has been prepared for use in conjunction with a
Slide 2: Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd Investor Update
For personal use only Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (ASX:TGF) Investor Update Ben Cleary, Portfolio Manager June 2020
Slide 3: Legal Disclaimer
Legal Disclaimer Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited (ABN 16 627 596 418) (“TGF”) by its investment manager, Tribeca Global Resources Pty Ltd (ABN 11 606 707 662) (“Tribeca”) under AFS License 239070 (Tribeca Investment Partners Pty Ltd). The i
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda For personal use only 1. TGF Portfolio Update 2. Market Environment and Outlook 3. Credit Update 4. Listed Equities Update 5. Corporate Update 3
Slide 5: TGF Portfolio Update
For personal use only TGF Portfolio Update
Slide 6: Recent Credit Impairment Impact on NTA
Recent Credit Impairment Impact on NTA For personal use only • As announced last Tuesday 9th June, TGF made a material impairment to its credit exposure, specifically Paringa Resources (click here) • The impairment will be reflected in the June NTA statement. • As announced last Friday, 12 June, the
Slide 7: TGF NTA vs Share Price Performance
TGF NTA vs Share Price Performance For personal use only Key Details (as at 31 May 2020) Monthly NTA Monthly Performance Since Listing ASX Code TGF Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD -0.07% -0.36% -0.71% -1.14% Listing Share Price $2.50 0.16% -0.44% -0.16% 0.25% -3.24% 0.78% -0.52%
Slide 8: Current Portfolio Exposures
Current Portfolio Exposures For personal use only Current Net Exposures by Sector (as at 12 June 2020) Exposure Allocation by Strategy Uranium Soft Commodities 21% Services Private Credit 79% Precious Metals Listed Equities Oil & Gas Source: Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd Diversifed Mining Net
Slide 9: Market Environment and Portfolio Outlook
For personal use only Market Environment and Portfolio Outlook
Slide 10: Commodities: Fundamentals, Macro and Positioning are Supportive
Commodities: Fundamentals, Macro and Positioning are Supportive For personal use only • As foreshadowed in the March investor update, the Chinese economy has quickly returned to “normal” output levels across a broad range of economic and leading indicators. • Despite the rest of world falling into m
Slide 11: China V-Shaped Recovery: Normalization of Key Leading Indicators
China V-Shaped Recovery: Normalization of Key Leading Indicators Daily property sales have now risen back to close to flat y/y levels Power-plant coal consumption pointed to normal levels For personal use only Retail vehicle sales have picked up sequentially and now back into y/y growth Congestion i
Slide 12: Material Covid-19 Related Supply Issues in South America and Africa
Material Covid-19 Related Supply Issues in South America and Africa For personal use only Source: Bloomberg, Citi Research 11
Slide 13: Strong Chinese Demand Driving Inventory Draws
Strong Chinese Demand Driving Inventory Draws Iron-ore port stock draws started to emerge again from mid-April For personal use only May China Commodity Trade Data Growth Y/Y (Imports) 170 China port iron ore stocks, Mt 60 160 50 150 40 y/y growth (%) 140 30 130 20 120 10 110 0 100 Natural gas catho
Slide 14: China Credit Impulse Underpins Q3 Demand
China Credit Impulse Underpins Q3 Demand For personal use only China Credit Impulse Pointing to Very Strong Copper Use Consumption Historical relationships between the credit impulse (credit growth) and copper end use demand growth point to very strong copper consumption growth (>10% y/y) over the n
Slide 15: Positioning Remains Supportive, Distorted by WTI
Positioning Remains Supportive, Distorted by WTI For personal use only Managed Money Net Positioning Brent WTI Spread Source: Vanda Research Positioning Across Natgas, WTI and Copper Source: Vanda Research Source: Vanda Research 14
Slide 16: TGF Portfolio - Private Credit Exposure Update
For personal use only TGF Portfolio - Private Credit Exposure Update
Slide 17: Impairment of Credit Exposure to Paringa Group
Impairment of Credit Exposure to Paringa Group (ASX:PNL) For personal use only • TGF impaired the Company’s exposure to Paringa Resources by ~80% on June 9th • The revised valuation of this exposure has been endorsed by the Company’s independent valuation agent. • This impairment implies underlying
Slide 18: Paringa Resources Ltd (~6% Weight)
Paringa Resources Ltd (~6% Weight) For personal use only Loan Overview • TGF is a lender in the US$40m senior secured debt facility Operational Update • Coal quality and specification continues to meet customer to a wholly owned US subsidiary of listed thermal coal requirements. company, Paringa Res
Slide 19: Unfortunate Timing for Sales Process Amid Significant Headwinds for the Sector
Unfortunate Timing for Sales Process Amid Significant Headwinds for the Sector For personal use only Coal Consumption Fell to 5-year lows Gas Prices Hit 12 Month Lows Exports Price Fell >20% US Power Generation from Coal Henry Hub Gas Price 12m API2 3 68 6000 Feb-May US 66 Mid Price ($ 000's) therma
Slide 20: Resulting TGF Credit Exposure
Resulting TGF Credit Exposure For personal use only • Private credit represents ~21% of TGF’s NTA of which Paringa is ~6%. • Cash within the private credit portion of the portfolio is ~7% TGF NTA. • Other Private Credit investments account for ~8% of NTA. • There are no other investments that are un
Slide 21: TGF Portfolio – Listed Equity Exposure Update
For personal use only TGF Portfolio – Listed Equity Exposure Update
Slide 22: Listed Equity Overview
Listed Equity Overview For personal use only • Listed equities currently accounts for ~79% of the Company’s NTA • The largest net exposures by commodity are: ~22% base metals, ~20% precious metals, ~16% uranium • These have been three of the four central investment themes within the portfolio over t
Slide 23: Teck Resources (~7% Weight)
Teck Resources (~7% Weight) For personal use only Teck Remains Significantly Undervalued on Multiple Measures Teck Resources B - YTD Share Price (CAD) 25 20 15 10 • Top 3 single stock position at ~7% of the portfolio 5 • Has been material underperformer in recent years despite owning Tier1 0 31-Dec-
Slide 24: Nickel Mines (~5% Weight)
Nickel Mines (~5% Weight) For personal use only Nickel Mines Share Price (AUD) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 • Nickel Mines is now the largest pure play Nickel producer on the ASX 0.2 Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 • Right partner in Tsingshan, the world’s largest stainless steel produce
Slide 25: Large Cap Copper Producers (~9% Combined Weight)
Large Cap Copper Producers (~9% Combined Weight) For personal use only Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) Lundin Mining (TSE:LUN) 14 8 Last Price ($) Last Price ($) 12 7 10 6 8 6 5 4 4 Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 • Largest listed copper
Slide 26: Precious Metals (~20% Weight)
Precious Metals: (~20% Weight) For personal use only Structural Tailwinds for Gold in All Currencies US FED balance sheet expected to more than double 2008 levels as % of GDP • Federal Reserve comments last week supportive for Gold with interest rates likely to be near zero through to 2022 • The num
Slide 27: Uranium (~16% Weight)
Uranium: (~16% Weight) For personal use only Portfolio Allocation Uranium 5-year Spot Price Spot Price Producers Developers 40 Nov 2017 Apr 2018 Jan 2020 Apr 2020 CCO suspends S232 Uranium COVID-19 KAP 10.4m lb McArthur River COVID-19 loss 35 30 USD/lb 25 20 Jan 2017 Dec 2017 Dec 2019 KAP 10% KAP cu
Slide 28: Team updates and corporate buy-back
Corporate Update For personal use only • New Hire –Todd Warren • Todd joins the Tribeca Team following 22 years with Colonial First State Asset Management (CFSAM), including 6 years in London. Todd is an equity partner and will be the head of research. • Most recently Head of Global Resources at CFS
Slide 29: Investor Relations
For personal use only Investor Relations Email: TGFinvestors@tribecaip.com.au Web: https://tribecaip.com/lic Singapore Tribeca Investment Partners Pte Ltd #16-01 Singapore Land Tower 50 Raffles Place, Singapore 048623 Tel: +65 6320 7711 Sydney Tribeca Investment Partners Pty Ltd Level 23, 1 O’Connel
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