Bank Of Greece Sa · ATHEX:TELL
Bank Of Greece Sa — Investor Presentation (December 2012)
72 slides from Bank Of Greece Sa's investor presentation, Dec 21, 2012
Slide 1: Declining Labor Shares and the Global Rise of Corporate Saving
Declining Labor Shares and the Global Rise of Corporate Saving Loukas Karabarbounis 1 Brent Neiman 2 1 University of Chicago Booth and NBER 2 University of Chicago Booth and NBER Bank of Greece 21 December 2012
Slide 2: Two Big Trends
Two Big Trends Go .66 .65 .64 .6 .62 .55 .6 .5 .58 .45 .56 .4 1975 1985 1995 2005 Global Corporate Saving / Total Saving (left axis) Global Corporate Labor Share (right axis) Bank of Greece (12/21/12) Labor Share & Corporate Saving Karabarbounis & Neiman 1 / 31
Slide 3: Overview
Overview 1 Empirics trends in labor share and corporate saving in majority of countries these trends related to trends in price of investment goods two facts jointly informative about deeper shocks 2 GE Model with CES Production and Capital Market Imperfections calibrate CES & imperfections to cross
Slide 4: Related Literature
Related Literature Labor Shares (Empirical): Blanchard (1997); Gollin (2002); Harrison (2002); Jones (2003); Bentolila and Saint-Paul (2003). Go Corporate Saving (Empirical): United States: Poterba (1987), Auerbach and Hassett (1991), Armenter and Hnatkovska (2011); China: Bayoumi, Tong, and Wei (20
Slide 5: Empirics CES Model with Capital Market Imperfections Quantitative Results
1 Empirics 2 CES Model with Capital Market Imperfections 3 Quantitative Results 4 Conclusion
Slide 6: Data Sources
Empirics Data Sources System of National Accounts, “Detailed National Accounts”: 1 C = {Financial Corporations, Non-Financial Corporations} 2 H = {Households, Non-Profits Serving Households} 3 G = {Government} Sources combined: Internet: Country-specific (preferred source) Electronic databases: OECD
Slide 7: Share of Observations
Empirics % of Observations Not Available Digitally from UN/OECD .8 .6 Share of Observations .2 .4 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 Unweighted Weighted by Corporate Saving Bank of Greece (12/21/12) Labor Share & Corporate Saving Karabarbounis & Neiman 5 / 31
Slide 8: Key National Income Accounting Concepts
Empirics Key National Income Accounting Concepts Go GDP (Y) Corporate Gross Taxes on Value Added (QC) Products Corporate Government Gross Saving (SC) sɅ͕QC Value Added (QG) (Profits) Household Gross Dividends (dC) Value Added (QH) Other Payments s<͕QC to Capital (OPKC) Corporate Gross Compensation V
Slide 9: Estimated Trends in Corporate Labor Shares
Empirics Estimated Trends in Corporate Labor Shares .15 .1 Percentage Point Trend per 10 Years .05 GBR 0 JPN CAN USA DEU FRA −.05 ITA CHN −.1 −.15 Countries with at least 10 Years of Data Countries with significant trends: 29/39 countries have negative trend Bank of Greece (12/21/12) Labor Share & C
Slide 10: Labor Shares and Investment Prices from 1950
Empirics Labor Shares and Investment Prices from 1950 Go .1 Cumulative Change (in Percentage Points) 4 Cumulative Change (in Logs) 2 0 0 −.1 −4 −2 −.2 −6 −.3 −8 1947 1967 1987 2007 PWT Investment Price (left axis) EIU Investment Price (left axis) Corporate Labor Share (right axis) Bank of Greece (12
Slide 11: Corporate Labor Shares and Investment Prices
Empirics Corporate Labor Shares and Investment Prices Go .2 PHL ESP Trend in Corporate Labor Share SEN .1 UKR CHE CYP ICE BLR THA EGY NLDPRT GBR SNG COL 0 CANSWE USA JPN TWN DNK DEU MRC ROM CZE AUS ITA LUX FRA BEL IDO CHN AUT SVK FIN NOR NZL LTH HUN MEX ZAF SVN LTV −.1 CHL EST SAR POL NGR −.2 −.4 −.
Slide 12: Estimated Trends in Corporate / Total Saving
Empirics Estimated Trends in Corporate / Total Saving .4 Percentage Point Trend per 10 Years JPN .2 ITA GBR CAN FRA USA CHN DEU 0 −.2 Countries with at least 10 Years of Data Countries with significant trends: 22/31 countries have positive trend Bank of Greece (12/21/12) Labor Share & Corporate Savi
Slide 13: Corporate / Total Saving and Investment Prices
Empirics Corporate / Total Saving and Investment Prices Go EST PHL ROM .3 HUN EGY Trend in Corporate Saving / Total Saving POL .2 SVK JPN LTH UKR ITA TWNCZE COL .1 PRT CAN GBR FIN USA FRA NLD IND AUS SWE MEX CHN KOR BEL DEU 0 AUT SVN NGR DNK CHE NZL LTV NOR −.1 ESP MRC BLR CHL ZAF −.2 −.3 −.2 −.1 0
Slide 14: Corroboration of Investment Price Shock
Empirics Corroboration of Investment Price Shock SC QC dC = (1 − sL,C − sK ,C ) 1 − Go Y Y ΠC .6 .4 Log Change (1975=0) −.2 0 −.4.2 1975 1985 1995 2005 Corporate Saving Share of GDP Corporate Value Added Relative to GDP Corporate Profits Relative to Value Added Share of Corporate Profits that are Re
Slide 15: Summary of Empirics
Empirics Summary of Empirics 1 corporate labor share declined by 5 pp globally 2 corporate / total saving increased by 20 pp globally 3 across (and within) country trends in these objects covaries with trends in investment prices Next, we use this information to build and calibrate a model and: Repr
Slide 16: Empirics CES Model with Capital Market Imperfections Quantitative Results
1 Empirics 2 CES Model with Capital Market Imperfections 3 Quantitative Results 4 Conclusion
Slide 17: Household
Model Household Representative household owns the corporate sector (θt (z) = 1). Household chooses {ct , nt , xth , kt+1 h ,θ t+1 (z)} to solve: 1+ 1 1−ρ ! (ct )1−γ ∞ X (nt ) φ kth max βt −χ +ν t=0 1−γ 1 + φ1 1−ρ subject to standard housing capital accumulation. Bank of Greece (12/21/12) Labor Share
Slide 18: Household Budget Constraint
Model Household Budget Constraint Go Household funds come from the following sources: 1 labor income 2 transfers minus taxes 3 dividends 4 previously purchased equity (capital gains and buybacks) Household funds go to the following uses: 1 consumption 2 housing investment 3 new equity Bank of Greece
Slide 19: Corporation's Technology
Model Corporation’s Technology Firm uses its own capital and labor to produce the final good: σ−1 σ−1 κσ σ−1 σ−1 σ−1 Qt = At z αk κσ (ktc ) σ + αnκσ (nt ) σ Calibrate (σ,αk ) to match sL and dsL /d log ξ c in the cross section Corporate capital accumulation: c xtc kt+1 = (1 − δ c )ktc + ξtc Lower ξ
Slide 20: Corporate Saving is Interesting: Feldstein-Horioka
Model Corporate Saving is Interesting: Feldstein-Horioka Go .24 CHN EST Average Corporate Investment / GDP TWN KOR CZE MEX .18 SVN AUT SVK NOR JPN ROM UKR HUN PRT CHL ESP RUS CHE POL DNK ITA AUS LUX SWE ZAF NLD .12 CAN BEL FIN DEU GBR COL FRA NZL USA IRL IND EGY .06 .06 .12 .18 .24 Average Corporate
Slide 21: Corporation's Problem
Model Corporation’s Problem Corporation chooses {nt , xtc , kt+1 c , d , e } to maximize: t t ∞ 1 − τsd X Vt = max βsc ds − es s=t 1 − τsg subject to constraints: xtc = (Πt (λ) − dt ) + et = Stc + et =⇒ Stc = xtc + (−et ) dt ≥ 0 et ≥ − e 0 + e 1 ktc Calibrate (e 0 , e 1 ) to match S c /S and d(S c /
Slide 22: Simplified Corporate Policies: A Pecking Order
Model Simplified Corporate Policies: A Pecking Order Go 1 1 A B C D E Dividends Saving 4.5 Equity Investment 0.8 0.8 4 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.4 0.4 kt+1 c 3 0.2 0.2 2.5 0 0 2 −0.2 −0.2 1.5 −0.4 −0.4 2 3c 4 2 3c 4 2 3c 4 kt kt kt ! 1 − τ d + µdt Qk,t+1 = (1 + rt+1 ) − (1 − δ c ) 1 − τ d + µdt+1 Bank of Greece
Slide 23: Summary: Capital Market Imperfections
Model Summary: Capital Market Imperfections Corporate investment funded internally (corporate saving) or externally (debt and equity). Corporate saving preferred because of equity flotation costs and debt collateral constraints. Corporate saving (profits minus dividends) cannot increase without limi
Slide 24: Perfect Capital Markets
Model Perfect Capital Markets Household budget constraint: ct + xth = labor income + net transfers + R, Corporate flow of funds: xtc = output − net taxes − R. Corporate saving in benchmark neoclassical economy is indeterminate. Such a model ignores d(S c /S)/d log ξ c . Our model exhibits compositio
Slide 25: Empirics CES Model with Capital Market Imperfections Quantitative Results
1 Empirics 2 CES Model with Capital Market Imperfections 3 Quantitative Results 4 Conclusion
Slide 26: Calibration of CES Model with Imperfect Capital Markets
Quantitative Results Calibration of CES Model with Imperfect Capital Markets Go Key parameters to calibrate: Production function: αk and σ Capital market imperfections: e 0 and e 1 Moments to match: 1 corporate labor share Level sL = 0.614 Slope dsL /d log ξ c = 0.207 2 corporate saving / total savi
Slide 27: Steady State Results
Quantitative Results Steady State Results Steady State Relative to Statistic Value Benchmark (i) Total Saving / GDP 0.230 0.872 (ii) Corporate Investment / Total Investment 0.660 0.921 (iii) Corporate Saving / Total Saving 0.798 – (iv) Dividends / Profits 0.279 – (v) Corporate Labor Share 0.614 1.03
Slide 28: Response to a Negative Investment Price Shock
Quantitative Results Response to a Negative Investment Price (ξ c ) Shock We shock ξ c from 1 to 0.79 as in PWT and study steady state to steady state changes Go Capital market imperfections matter more in states of high desired investment Increase of desired investment depends on elasticity of subs
Slide 29: Negative Investment Price Shock: Results
Quantitative Results c Negative ξ Shock: Results Production: CD CD CES CES Capital Markets Imperfections: No Yes No Yes (i) ∆ Corporate Labor Share 0.000 0.000 -0.058 -0.053 (ii) ∆ Corporate / Total Saving - 0.072 - 0.118 (iii) ∆ Corporate Saving / GDP - 0.031 - 0.064 (iv) ∆ Corporate / Total Invest
Slide 30: Can Model Reproduce Empirical Patterns?
Quantitative Results Can Model Reproduce Empirical Patterns? Increase in saving / GDP is counterfactual (Model A) Go Want to highlight role of change in composition of saving Model B: ξ c shock and stabilize S/GDP by ↓ δ h Model C: ξ c shock and stabilize S/GDP by ↓ β we also ↓ τ k to keep the real
Slide 31: Reproducing Empirical Patterns: Results
Quantitative Results Reproducing Empirical Patterns: Results ξc ξc , δh ξc , β ξc , τ c , τ d , τ g , β ∆ Variable A B C E Data Corporate Labor Share -0.053 -0.053 -0.033 -0.044 -0.081 Corporate / Total Saving 0.118 0.238 0.114 0.215 0.161 Corporate Saving / GDP 0.064 0.055 0.026 0.050 0.039 Corpora
Slide 32: 20% Positive A Shock (Unexpected and Permanent)
Quantitative Results 20% Positive A Shock (Unexpected and Permanent) Go Cumulative GDP Growth (Percent) 2 1.5 CES Difference (Perfect − Imperfect) 1 CD Difference (Perfect − Imperfect) 0.5 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Bank of Greece (12/21/12) Labor Share & Corporate Saving Karabarbounis & Neiman 28 / 31
Slide 33: Intuition I
Quantitative Results Intuition I Define ratio of user costs (imperfect/perfect capital markets): uI uR = >1 uP The differential growth of the capital-labor ratio is: , D = d (kIc /nI ) / (kIc /nI ) d (kPc /nP ) / (kPc /nP ) = !" !# uRσ−1 − 1 (1 − sL,I ) 1 σ (duR /uR ) 1− 1− c d kP /nP / kPc /nP sL,I
Slide 34: Intuition II
Quantitative Results Intuition II !" !# uRσ−1 − 1 (1 − sL,I ) 1 σ (duR /uR ) D= 1− 1− c d kP /nP / kPc /nP sL,I sL,P 1 Shocks that do not change ratio of user costs duR = 0 (e.g. higher A) D = 1 in Cobb-Douglas: knife-edge case in which growth of k c /n same between I model and P model. D < 1 in CES
Slide 35: Empirics CES Model with Capital Market Imperfections Quantitative Results
1 Empirics 2 CES Model with Capital Market Imperfections 3 Quantitative Results 4 Conclusion
Slide 36: Conclusion and Next Steps
Conclusion Conclusion and Next Steps Striking global trends from mid 70s: labor share down, corporate saving up. Trends driven in part by decline in cost of capital. Model calibrated to cross-section, matches a large portion of global time-series. Two facts informative for response of economy of var
Slide 37: EXTRA SLIDES
EXTRA SLIDES
Slide 38: Corporate Labor Shares and Saving: Largest Economies
Corporate Labor Shares and Saving: 4 Largest Economies Back United States Japan .7 .7 .8 .8 .65 .65 .7 .6 .6 .6 .6 .4 .55 .55 .5 .2 1975 1985 1995 2005 1975 1985 1995 2005 China Germany .5 .7 .45 .35 .4 .45 .5 .55 .45 .65 .4 .4 .6 .35 .35 .55 1975 1985 1995 2005 1975 1985 1995 2005 Corporate Saving
Slide 39: U.S. Labor Share
U.S. Labor Share U.S. Corporate Labor Share (Hall, Slide 4, NIPA) 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.62 Percent Declines 1970-2007: 7.3 0.60 1970-2011: 11.0 1975-2007: 4.7 0.58 1975-2011: 8.5 1980-2007: 7.8 0.56 1980-2011: 11.6 Note: Percentages, not pps 0.54 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Slide 40: U.S. Labor Share Decline: Implications
U.S. Labor Share Decline: Implications Take our very conservative estimate of roughly 3.5 pp decline. Suppose the U.S. faced the global representative shock of 21% decline in the price of investment goods. The elasticity of substitution necessary to rationalize this decline is σ ≈ 1.3 (with σ = 1.4
Slide 41: Labor Share Trends by Sector
Labor Share Trends by Sector .85 .8 .75 .7 .65 .6 1975 1985 1995 2005 Manufacturing Trade, Transport, and Communications Construction Finance and Business Services covers total economy other than agriculture, mining, utilities, real-estate, and government
Slide 42: Corporate vs. Overall Labor Share
Corporate vs. Overall Labor Share .7 .65 .6 .55 .5 .45 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Corporate Labor Share Overall Labor Share
Slide 43: Implications of CES for Balanced Growth
Implications of CES for Balanced Growth Back balanced growth with non-zero factor shares under labor augmenting tech growth under any production function (including CES) our shock increases real wages by 20% the rest could be labor-augmenting growth which does not move the labor share balanced growt
Slide 44: Implications for Levels (Hsieh and Klenow, 2007)
Implications for Levels (Hsieh and Klenow, 2007) Back Their argument is that the high relative price of investment goods in less developed countries reflects their low price of consumption and not their high price of investment goods. Balassa-Samuelson effect: investment goods (more) tradeable and c
Slide 45: Compensation of Employees
Compensation of Employees Back wages and salaries in cash (including overtime, housing allowances, holidays, sickness, bonuses, commissions, tips etc.; does not include unfunded benefits such as maternity leave, medical services not related to work etc.) wages and salaries in kind (meals, housing se
Slide 46: Related Trends in Investment
Related Trends in Investment Back .14 .3 .2 .13 Log Change (1975=0) .1 .12 −.1 0 .11 −.2 −.3 .1 1975 1985 1995 2005 Global Relative Investment Price Global Real Corporate Investment / GDP (Year Fixed Effects) Global Corporate Investment Spending / GDP (right axis)
Slide 47: Implications for Investment
Implications for Investment In response to the investment price shock, our model implies an increase of the real capital stock over GDP k c /GDP. Real corporate investment as a share of GDP, (x c /ξ)/GDP, grows both in our model and the data. Nominal corporate investment as a share of global GDP, x
Slide 48: Corporate Saving, Investment, and CA
Corporate Saving, Investment, and CA .02 .14 .13 .01 Share of GDP Share of GDP .12 0 .11 −.01 .1 −.02 .09 1975 1985 1995 2005 Corporate Saving Corporate Investment Corporate CA (right axis)
Slide 49: Investment Prices
Investment Prices Back PPP,Int /P PPP,Int PIBEA ! PI ,i C ,i ,US ξic = P PPP,Int /P PPP,Int P BEA I ,US C ,US C ,US PWT: typically no hedonic estimates (“most price comparisons have used national average prices, matching identical items as much as possible”). So, cross sectional heterogeneit
Slide 50: Corporate Labor Shares and EIU Investment Prices
Corporate Labor Shares and EIU Investment Prices .2 PHL SAR ESP Trend in Corporate Labor Share SEN .1 UKR CHE CYP ICE BLR THA COL PRT EGY SNG GBR 0 USA CAN JPN SWE AUS DNK NLD MRC ROM CZE FRAITA NZL LUX CHN BEL SVK AUT NOR FIN DEU LTH HUN MEX ZAF SVN −.1 IDO LTV EST POL NGR −.2 −.2 −.1 0 .1 .2 Trend
Slide 51: Corporate Labor Shares and OECD Corporate Taxes
Corporate Labor Shares and OECD Corporate Taxes .1 CHE ESP Trend in Corporate Labor Share .05 PRT GBR 0 SWE CAN JPN USA NLD AUS DNK DEU FRA CZE ITA BEL −.05 NOR AUT SVK FIN NZL HUN POL MEX −.1 −.2 −.1 0 .1 .2 Trend in Corporate Taxes cross-country slope XXX; median within-country slope XXX
Slide 52: Capital-Augmenting Technology
Capital-Augmenting Technology Back Differences between labor-augmenting and capital-augmenting technological progress could bias our results if correlated with trends in the price of investment goods. Antras (2004) shows that in the U.S., labor-augmenting technology grew faster than capital-augmenti
Slide 53: Corporate Saving Shares and EIU Investment Prices
Corporate Saving Shares and EIU Investment Prices Back PHL ROM .3 EST Trend in Corporate Saving / Total Saving HUN EGY POL .2 SVK JPN UKR LTH ITA CZE .1 DEU CAN GBR FIN COL IND USA AUS FRA NLD MEX CHN KOR PRT 0 SVN BEL NGR SWE AUT DNK CHE NOR NZL −.1 LTV MRC ESP ZAF BLR −.2 −.1 0 .1 .2 .3 Trend in L
Slide 54: Corporate Saving Shares and OECD Corporate Taxes
Corporate Saving Shares and OECD Corporate Taxes .3 Trend in Corporate Saving / Total Saving JPN HUN POL .2 SVK ITA CZE .1 FIN CAN GBR PRT DEU USA MEX NLD AUS FRA 0 NOR BEL CHE SWE AUT DNK NZL ESP −.1 −.2 −.1 0 .1 Trend in Corporate Taxes cross-country slope XXX; median within-country slope XXX
Slide 55: Corporate Saving and Labor Share, Country by Country
Corporate Saving and Labor Share, Country by Country Back .4 Trend in Corporate Share of Total Saving ROM PHL EST HUN POL .2 SVK JPN ITA UKR CZETWN FIN CAN PRT FRA GBR COL NLD MEX AUS USA DEU CHN 0 AUT SVN NOR SWE DNK CHE NZL BEL ESP CHL ZAF −.2 −.1 −.05 0 .05 .1 .15 Trend in Corporate Labor Share
Slide 56: Corporate Saving and Labor Share, Country by Country
Corporate Saving and Labor Share, Country by Country .1 ROM UKR PHL EST Trend in Corporate Saving / GDP .05 CHN JPN POL COL NLD HUN AUT DNKCAN FIN SVK FRA TWN SWE SVN DEU CZE ITA GBR NOR AUS USA CHE 0 MEX BEL ESP CHL ZAF NZL PRT −.05 −.1 −.05 0 .05 .1 .15 Trend in Corporate Labor Share
Slide 57: Household Budget Constraint
Household Budget Constraint Back Z Z ct + xth + θt+1 (z)pt (z)π(z)dz + c bt+1 (z)π(z)dz = wt nt (1 − τtn ) + Tt + τtk δ h kth Z + θt (z)dt (z)(1 − τtd )π(z)dz Z + θt (z)(pt (z) − et (z))π(z)dz Z − θt (z)τtg (pt (z) − pt−1 (z) − et (z)) π(z)dz Z + btc (z)(1 + rt (1 − τtk ))π(z)dz.
Slide 58: Feldstein-Horioka on Shares
Feldstein-Horioka on Shares Back 1 Average Corporate Investment / Total Investment .8 CHN UKR ROM EST ZAFSVK MEX AUT CZE DNK RUS SWE KOR CHL SVN LUXHUN GBR NORPOL CHE .6 COL BEL ESP NLD PRTNZL JPN CAN USA DEU FRA EGY ITA TWN AUS .4 IRL IND FIN .2 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 Average Corporate Saving / Total Saving
Slide 59: Simplifications in Describing Corporate Policies
Simplifications in Describing Corporate Policies Back 1 Partial equilibrium 2 Flotation costs of 2% 3 No debt 4 No adjustment costs 5 et ≥ −0.3 (does not depend on capital) 6 price of investment always equal to 1 7 all other exogenous variables expected to remain constant for ever with probability 1
Slide 60: Perfect vs. Imperfect Markets Formally
Perfect vs. Imperfect Markets Formally Back Allocations in our model differ from allocations in benchmark neoclassical model if and only if user costs differ: P ut+1 = ξtc 1 + 1 − τ k rt+1 (1 + Ψc1,t ) τc c c c − ξt+1 1 − 1 − c δ − Ψ2,t+1 ξt+1 1−τ d ! d 1 − τk 1−τ g + µt I c ut+1 = ξt 1 + rt+1 1 + Ψ
Slide 61: Traditional vs. New View
Traditional vs. New View (e1 = 0 and η = 0) Traditional view: the marginal source of funds is new equity, so µe = 0 and µd = 1/E ′ (e) − (1 − τ d )/(1 − τ g ) > 0. Postulates negative effect of dividend taxation on capital accumulation. New view: the marginal source of funds is retained earnings, so
Slide 62: Calibration (Other Parameters)
Calibration (Other Parameters) Back Preferences: log consumption, log housing, and unitary Frisch elasticity Discount factor β = 0.9723 to match r = 4.5% Tax rates are GDP-weighted from OECD Decreasing returns to scale κ = 0.961 and adjustment costs from Gourio and Miao (2010) Heterogeneity: {zH = 1
Slide 63: A: ξc shock
A: ξ c shock Back 0.9 0.62 Sc / S sL 0.8 0.6 0.58 0.7 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 0.22 0.22 xc / Y 0.2 0.2 S /Y 0.18 0.18 c 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.14 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000
Slide 64: B: (ξc) and (δh) shocks
B: (ξ c ) and (δ h ) shocks 0.9 0.62 Sc / S sL 0.8 0.6 0.58 0.7 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 0.22 0.22 0.2 0.2 S /Y x /Y 0.18 0.18 c c 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.14 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000
Slide 65: C: (ξc) and (β, τk) shocks
C: (ξ c ) and (β, τ k ) shocks 0.9 0.62 Sc / S sL 0.8 0.6 0.58 0.7 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 0.22 0.22 0.2 0.2 S /Y x /Y 0.18 0.18 c c 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.14 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000
Slide 66: D: (ξc, τc) and (β, τk) shocks
D: (ξ c , τ c ) and (β, τ k ) shocks 0.9 0.62 Sc / S sL 0.8 0.6 0.58 0.7 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 0.22 0.22 0.2 0.2 S /Y x /Y 0.18 0.18 c c 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.14 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000
Slide 67: E: (ξc, τc, τd, τg) and (β, τk) shocks
E: (ξ c , τ c , τ d , τ g ) and (β, τ k ) shocks 0.62 0.9 Sc / S sL 0.6 0.8 0.58 0.7 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 0.22 0.22 0.2 0.2 S /Y x /Y 0.18 0.18 c c 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.14 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000
Slide 68: Informativeness of Labor Shares and Corporate Saving
Informativeness of Labor Shares and Corporate Saving c d ( s ) / d (log ξ ) = 0.000 d log GDP ( X ) − d log GDP ( X = −0.46 ) L 0.01 d ( s ) / d (log ξc) = 0.104 L 0.005 c d ( s ) / d (log ξ ) = 0.207 L 0 d ( s ) / d (log ξc) = 0.414 L −0.005 −0.01 −0.015 −0.02 −0.7 −0.6 −0.5 −0.4 −0.3 −0.2 −0.1 0 c
Slide 69: Capital Market Imperfections, Labor Shares, and FH Puzzle
Capital Market Imperfections, Labor Shares, and FH Puzzle Slope ∆ ( sL ) on ∆ log (ξc) = 0.000 Slope ∆ ( sL ) on ∆ log (ξc) = 0.104 Feldstein−Horioka Coefficient 1.2 Slope ∆ ( sL ) on ∆ log (ξc) = 0.207 1 Slope ∆ ( sL ) on ∆ log (ξc) = 0.414 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 −1 −0.9 −0.8 −0.7 −0.6 −0.5 −0.4 −0.3 −0.2
Slide 70: Global Sectoral Saving Relative to GDP
Global Sectoral Saving Relative to GDP Back .15 .1 .05 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 Corporations Households Government
Slide 71: 20% Negative A Shock (Unexpected and Permanent)
20% Negative A Shock (Unexpected and Permanent) Back Cumulative GDP Growth (Percent) 0 −0.5 −1 −1.5 CES Difference (Perfect − Imperfect) CD Difference (Perfect − Imperfect) −2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Slide 72: Negative β Shock (Unexpected and Permanent)
1 PP Negative β Shock (Unexpected and Permanent) Back 2 1.5 Percent Growth GDP 1 0.5 0 CES Difference (Perfect − Imperfect) CD Difference (Perfect − Imperfect) −0.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Bank Of Greece — Investor Presentation (December 2012) on 6ix