West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. · TSX:WFG

West Fraser Timber — Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation

55 slides from West Fraser Timber's earnings presentation, Jul 24, 2025

  1. Slide 1: Investor Presentation

    INVESTOR PRESENTATION July 2025 Photo: Angelina Sawmill, Lufkin, Texas, USA

  2. Slide 2: Financial Information

    Financial Information: The financial information related to West Fraser contained in this Presentation is derived from our Q2 2025 interim Financial Statements, which have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and is discussed in our Managements’ Discu

  3. Slide 3: Forward Looking Statements

    By their nature, these forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, which contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts, and other forward-looking statements will not occur. Factors that could cause actual resul

  4. Slide 4: Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

    Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

  5. Slide 5: Consolidated Financial Results

    Consolidated Financial Results US$ Millions US$ Millions Q2-25 Q1-25 Q2-25 Q1-25 Adjusted EBITDA* (except EPS) Lumber $15 $66 Sales $1,532 $1,459 EWP - North America 68 125 Costs and expenses (1,576) (1,395) Operating earnings (loss) (45) 64 Pulp & Paper (1) 7 Finance income 4 6 EWP - Europe 2 (2) O

  6. Slide 6: Q2-25 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation

    Q2-25 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation $200 $195 Inventory write-downs. Lumber: $(26) million NA EWP: $(18) million $18 $2 Pulp & Paper: $(6) million $150 ($60) ($29) $USD M Higher NA OSB shipments. $100 $8 $84 ($50) Lower lumber and OSB pricing. Lumber: $(17) million $50 NA EWP: $(48) mi

  7. Slide 7: Q2-25 versus Q1-25

    Q2-25 versus Q1-25 US$ millions unless Q2 2025 Q1 2025 Change Comments otherwise indicated Lumber Shipments (MMfbm) 1,376 1,239 137 Seasonally stronger period of consumption. NA OSB Shipments (MMsf 3/8”) 1,710 1,503 207 Seasonally stronger period of consumption. EU OSB Shipments (MMsf 3/8”) 301 292

  8. Slide 8: 2025 Outlook

    2025 Outlook US$ unless indicated otherwise 2025F 2024 Commentary SPF Shipments (MMfbm) 2,600 – 2,800 2,835 Lowered guidance range on softer than expected demand. SYP Shipments (MMfbm) 2,400 – 2,600 2,582 Lowered guidance range on softer than expected demand. N.A. OSB Shipments (MMsf 3/8”) 6,300 – 6

  9. Slide 9: Summary

    Summary Q2 2025 Recap Looking Forward • Demand for NA OSB began to soften while demand • Near-term demand for some of our wood products challenges for SYP lumber products generally persisted remains challenging, though longer-term demand fundamentals are favourable • NA OSB and Lumber shipments seas

  10. Slide 10: Why Investors Should Own West Fraser Shares

    Why Investors Should Own West Fraser Shares

  11. Slide 11: Reasons to Invest in West Fraser

    Reasons to Invest in West Fraser One of the world’s largest producers of sustainable wood-based building products Offers financial Serves markets Has a track record Has the scope, Is positioned to Has an attractive resilience through with attractive of disciplined and scale, and benefit from strong

  12. Slide 12: Resilience from Product and Geographic Diversity

    Resilience from Product and Geographic Diversity

  13. Slide 13: Product & Geographic Diversification – Capacity

    Product & Geographic Diversification – Capacity Lumber North America EWP Pulp & Paper UK and Europe EWP 32 facilities 21 facilities 2 facilities 3 facilities SPF 3.1 Bfbm OSB: 8,060 MMsf 3/8” NBSK: 340 Mtonnes OSB 1,515 MMsf 3/8” SYP 3.5 Bfbm Plywood: 760 MMsf 3/8” Newsprint: 135 Mtonnes Particleboa

  14. Slide 14: Wide-ranging Wood Building Products Offering

    Wide-ranging Wood Building Products Offering for Principal Homebuilder, Building Construction, and Pro-Dealer Customers LVL Header OSB Webstock Roof Trusses Roof Sheathing Wall Sheathing (Framing Lumber) (OSB/Plywood) (OSB/Plywood) MDF (Trim & Cabinets) Sub-Flooring (OSB/Plywood) Framing Decking Rim

  15. Slide 15: Operating Footprint on Two Continents

    Operating Footprint on Two Continents 15

  16. Slide 16: Diverse Industry End-Use Demand

    Diverse Industry End-Use Demand with Majority Driven by New Residential and Lower-Volatility R&R Markets North America Lumber End Use 2024 North America OSB End Use 2024 Non-Residential & Other 6% Non-Residential 9% Industrial 10% New Industrial Residential 23% 32% New Residential 57% R&R 24% R&R 38

  17. Slide 17: West Fraser Lumber Capacity Shifting to Lower-risk, Lower-cost Regions

    West Fraser Lumber Capacity Shifting to Lower-risk, Lower-cost Regions • US South growth to ~53% of capacity (from ~11% in 2004); lower-cost region, not subject to US trade risk • Exposure to higher-cost B.C. fiber reduced to ~20% of capacity (from ~77% in 2004) 2004: 2.8 Bfbm 2024: 6.6 Bfbm British

  18. Slide 18: Historic Adjusted EBITDA

    Historic Adjusted EBITDA Proforma Historical Combined Adj EBITDA (US$ millions) Segment Adj EBITDA Mix (US$ millions, excl. Corporate) Lumber NA EWP EU EWP P&P 5,000 1,800 100% 2 Ainsworth 7 9 2 4,500 Norbord 1,600 80% 6 4,000 West Fraser 2 1,400 U.S Housing starts (000s, RHS) 125 3,500 60% 1 1,200

  19. Slide 19: Serves Markets with Attractive Longer-term Fundamentals

    Serves Markets with Attractive Longer-term Fundamentals

  20. Slide 20: U.S. Housing Start Estimates

    U.S. Housing Start Estimates (Thousands) 1,700 1,601 1,600 1,553 1,500 US Housing Starts (‘000s) 1,420 1,400 1,380 1,367 1,300 1,290 1,250 1,203 1,200 1,174 1,112 1,100 1,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025F 2026F Actual Forecast Range (ex-High & Low) Source: U.S. Census Burea

  21. Slide 21: Lumber and OSB Not Significant Cost Factors for Home Builders

    Lumber and OSB are Not Typically Significant Cost Factors for Home Builders Lumber and OSB products generally comprise 15-20% of the total labour and materials costs to frame a SF house; combined, lumber and OSB costs are typically ~3% of total construction costs and ~2% of new home selling prices**

  22. Slide 22: U.S. Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity

    U.S. Leading Indicator of Remodeling (R&R) Activity Predicting a modest recovery into 2026 550 524 Homeowner Improvement & Repairs 515 514 513 511 510 511 513 510 509 511 516 500 499 502 500 (US$ Billions) 490 458 450 428 407 396 400 383 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4 2022:Q1 2

  23. Slide 23: Lumber and OSB Supply Overview

    Lumber and OSB Supply Overview Lumber OSB • Aggregate North American production growth • It is an estimated three- to five-year process to constrained by log availability, particularly in B.C.; construct a greenfield OSB mill, typically followed it is an estimated two- to three-year process to by a

  24. Slide 24: Illustrative Ecosystem of U.S. South Lumber Mill

    Illustrative Ecosystem of U.S. South Lumber Mill By building a new sawmill adjacent to an existing mill we are able to utilize existing infrastructure and skilled labour, enabling a faster ramp-up while reducing financial, operational and execution risks Approximate resources for 250 MMfbm U.S. sout

  25. Slide 25: Serving a Broad Distribution Network and Customer Base

    Serving a Broad Distribution Network and Customer Base West Fraser serves thousands of delivery points and customers across North America; the majority of product shipments use rail to transport Canadian SPF and OSB to U.S. markets and trucks to transport SYP and OSB from mills in the U.S. south. We

  26. Slide 26: North American Lumber Supply at 10-year Lows

    North American Lumber Supply at 10-year Lows BC Canada Other Canada US South Other US Offshore Imports US Housing Starts (R axis) Since the pandemic highs of production / 80 2.5 demand, 2024 marks the 3rd consecutive year of contraction in production. 70 U.S. Housing Starts (millions) 2.0 60 Reducti

  27. Slide 27: North American OSB Capacity

    North American OSB Capacity North America OSB Capacity and U.S. Housing Starts • One OSB mill was permanently closed in 2020 while a press fire at another competitor mill in spring 2022 30 2.5 kept that mill out of commission into H1-24 25 • West Fraser re-started its OSB mill in Chambord, 2.0 Quebe

  28. Slide 28: Disciplined and Balanced Allocator of Capital

    Disciplined and Balanced Allocator of Capital

  29. Slide 29: Capital Allocation Priorities

    Capital Allocation Priorities • Replace end-of-life assets • Maintain investment-grade rating • Maintain low-cost position • Maintain cash buffer to aid the • Strategically enhance pursuit of opportunistic M&A and product mix, productivity Reinvest Maintain larger-scale strategic growth and capacity

  30. Slide 30: Capital Allocation Lookback

    Capital Allocation Lookback • Multi-year history of cash flow generation is strong • Significant investments in maintaining, expanding and improving the business at ~40% of cash generated • Excess capital returned to shareholders of ~50% of cash flow, heavily weighted to buybacks, influenced by two

  31. Slide 31: Share Repurchases

    Share Repurchases Cumulative Investment in Repurchases* (US$ millions) Average repurchase price (CAD$): $5,000 $4,472 $4,549 2013 $44.60 $4,198 $4,327 $4,000 2014 $51.86 $3,000 $2,208 $2,000 2015 $55.57 $829 $890 $890 $1,000 $294 $307 2016 $44.06 $2 $104 $151 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20

  32. Slide 32: Lookback on West Fraser’s Capital Reinvested

    Lookback on West Fraser’s Capital Reinvested Return on Capital Employed (ROCE %)* 70% 61% 27% 25% 28% 24% 16% 19% average 0% -4% -3% -10% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source: Bloomberg, West Fraser analysis. Nearly 20% average ROCE through the cycle * Note: ROCE = GAAP EBIT / Average

  33. Slide 33: Liquidity

    Liquidity ($millions) Available Liquidity* Scheduled Maturities 3,000 1,200 West Fraser Timber is 900 considered investment US$ Millions US$ Millions 2,000 600 grade by three leading 1,000 rating agencies. 300 0 0 Agency Rating Outlook '20 '21 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2025 2026 2027

  34. Slide 34: Softwood Lumber Duties

    Softwood Lumber Duties Final and Preliminary Combined Countervailing and Anti-Dumping Cash Deposit Duty Rates (%) West Fraser – Duties Summary Current Period * Preliminary * Cash on Deposit At Q2 / 25 46.5% with U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC) US $939MM 34.5% Duties Receivable (net, pre-tax) on US

  35. Slide 35: Scope, Scale and Expertise to Unlock Growth

    Scope, Scale and Expertise to Unlock Growth

  36. Slide 36: West Fraser’s Growth Strategy

    West Fraser’s Growth Strategy • Our objective is to be the premier wood building products company in North America, resulting in long-term value creation. • Our strategy to achieve this objective is to develop and maintain a highly disciplined organization relentlessly focused on continuous improvem

  37. Slide 37: Continuous Improvement Through Portfolio Evolution and Optimization

    Continuous Improvement Through Portfolio Evolution and Optimization Actively seeking mill portfolio optimization through acquisitions, divestitures, curtailments/closures* and strategic capital West Fraser – Corporate Development Timeline (late 2021 thru 2024) +305MM FBM +170M Tonnes Angelina Forest

  38. Slide 38: M&A Target Attributes

    M&A Target Attributes – Seeking “High Quality” As West Fraser develops its M&A pipeline and pursues opportunities, a primary focus is on identifying “high quality” assets/businesses that will lower costs or enhance margins, ideally while also moderating West Fraser’s overall EBITDA variability throu

  39. Slide 39: Positioned to Benefit from Strong Sustainability Fundamentals

    Positioned to Benefit from Strong Sustainability Fundamentals

  40. Slide 40: 2024 Sustainability Report

    2024 Sustainability Report Our report measures sustainability performance across a variety of environmental, social and governance goals and disclosed targets. Scan the QR code to get our Sustainability Report https://www.westfraser.com/sustainability/sustainability-reporting

  41. Slide 41: 2024 Sustainability Highlights

    2024 Sustainability Highlights E N V I R O N M E N TA L SOCIAL GOVERNANCE • Planted 72.4 million seedlings • Strengthened contractor safety • Developed our Biodiversity in Canada, where we manage management Policy forestland • Invested $4.3 million in • Implemented our Sustainable • Reduced Scope 1

  42. Slide 42: Attractive Record of Creating Shareholder Value

    Attractive Record of Creating Shareholder Value

  43. Slide 43: Performance vs. Peers and Relevant Indices

    Performance vs. Peers and Relevant Indices Enterprise Value (US$ billions) +150% $6 +162% $4 $2 -14% +237% $0 2005 YE Q1-25 YE West Fraser Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Source: FactSet Annualized Total Shareholder Return (US$, dividends reinvested) Jan-01-06* to Jul-18-25 12% 10.8% 10% 8.8% 8% 7.2% 6% 4.8% 4

  44. Slide 44: Appendix

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  45. Slide 45: Broad Offering of Manufactured Wood Building Products

    Broad Offering of Manufactured Wood Building Products SPF SYP OSB Plywood Spruce Pine Fir (SPF) is a species that includes Southern Yellow Pine (SYP), known for its Oriented Strand Board (OSB) is a versatile Plywood is made from multiple layers, or ply, of Engelmann spruce, white spruce, hybrid whit

  46. Slide 46: West Fraser is North America’s Largest Lumber Producer

    West Fraser is North America’s Largest Lumber Producer West Fraser West Fraser 2024 Capacity 6.6 Billion feet 9% British Weyerhaeuser Columbia 8% 20% Interfor 7% 2024 N.A. Industry Other 50% Production US South 57 Bfbm 7% Canfor 53% 5% Sierra Pacific Alberta 4% 27% Georgia-Pacific Domtar Hampton Pot

  47. Slide 47: West Fraser is the World’s Largest OSB Producer

    West Fraser is the World’s Largest OSB Producer West Fraser OSB Capacity by Region Europe 16% North American OSB Industry* European OSB Industry US 51% 10 Bsf-3/8" Canada Other Other Martco 6% 34% Smartply West 13% 9% 4% Kronospan Fraser 29% Sonae- 47% Huber Arauco 8% 4% Industry Egger Industry Capa

  48. Slide 48: North America Lumber and EWP Adjusted EBITDA Margin

    West Fraser North America Lumber and EWP Adjusted EBITDA Margin1 NA Lumber 10-year Average: 17% NA EWP* (proforma) 10-year Average: 29% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021* 2022 2023 2024 -10% North America Lumber North America EWP (proforma) Note:

  49. Slide 49: Analyst Coverage

    Analyst Coverage Organization Analyst Name Contact BMO Capital Markets Ketan Mamtora (212) 883-5121 ketan.mamtora@bmo.com CIBC World Markets Hamir Patel (604) 331-3047 hamir.patel@cibc.com ERA Forest Products John Cooney (604) 267-3021 jcooney@era-research.com Research Raymond James Daryl Swetlishof

  50. Slide 50: Analyst Commodity Price Forecasts

    Analyst Commodity Price Forecasts (SPF & SYP US$/Mfbm; OSB US$/Msf) SPF W 2x4 SYP W 2x4 OSB NC 7/16” $550 $509 $425 RJ TD $465 BMO $475 $365 $533 $486 $369 TD Scotia $411 TD $492 $290 $525 $480 $350 ERA ERA $415 CIBC $485 $284 $525 $475 $346 BMO RJ $375 Scotia $470 $319 $520 $455 RBC BMO $395 RJ $32

  51. Slide 51: Modeling EBITDA

    Modeling EBITDA Estimated Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables (Based on 2024 annual shipment volumes - $ millions) Factor Variation Change in pre-tax earnings1 Lumber price $10 (per Mfbm) 54 NA OSB price $10 (per Msf) 57 Europe OSB price £10 (per Msf) 14 U.S. / CAD $ exchange rate2 $0.01 (per $ CA

  52. Slide 52: Illustrative Variable Production Costs for North American Lumber Industry

    Illustrative Variable Production Costs for North American Lumber Industry $USD/MBF Variable Lumber Costs (2021-2023) 400 0 B.C. Interior US West Coast Quebec Ontario US South Net Delivered Wood Costs Manufacturing Costs Source: FEA, West Fraser analysis. Lumber Manufacturing Costs (2021-2023) 100% M

  53. Slide 53: Illustrative Variable Production Costs for North American OSB Industry

    Illustrative Variable Production Costs for North American OSB Industry Variable OSB Costs (2021-2023) $USD/MSF 3/8” 200 0 US North US South Western Canada Eastern Canada Net Delivered Wood Costs Manufacturing Costs Source: FEA, West Fraser analysis. OSB Manufacturing Costs (2021-2023) 100% Misc. 21%

  54. Slide 54: West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.

    West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. These materials have been prepared by Management of the Company. No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved of the contents of these materials. These materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the Company

  55. Slide 55: External Information

    External Information: Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external source, it should not be interpreted that West Fraser has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the information presented herein is based on or derived from st

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