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Veolia Environnement Sa — Technical Presentation (November 2015)

43 slides from Veolia Environnement Sa's technical presentation, Nov 9, 2015

1. Slide 1: Session Overview: Controlling CH4 Emissions from Waste

   Session Overview : Controlling CH4 Emissions from Waste Total waste sector emissions: 2.9 % of 49 Gt total [CO2 eq.] anthropogenic GHG emissions for 2010 (IPCC AR5 WG3 Table 10.3) 89% of sectoral total = CH4 from landfills & wastewater

2. Slide 2: We know how to control CH4 emissions

   We know how to: We know how to: Control CH4 emissions from landfills: Engineered landfills with recovery & use of biogas. Horizontal gas collectors installed concurrent with filling. InstallaVon of thicker soil covers or “biocovers” to opVmize soil oxidaVon of CH4. Diversion of biodegradable waste from

3. Slide 3: However… current IPCC methods do not reflect current science

   Time However… millenium Current IPCC (1996, 2006) NaVonal GHG Inventory Methods …do not reflect current scienVfic understanding. century …exclude major drivers for emissions. … do not match field measurements at various spaVal & decade temporal scales. year Field measurements indicate wide range of val

4. Slide 4: Scales for processes, measurements, & IPCC models

   geologic Vme millennium Scales for processes, measurements, & century IPCC models… Temporal longer term climate decade weather IPCC year NGGIP naVonal micromet. tower GHG day Scale of Current Field inventory Methods aircrah methodologies Scale of mass balance biogenic minute methane processes second

5. Slide 5: Temporal and spatial scales: site-specific CH4 emissions

   geologic Vme …Increasing millennium importance of site-­‐specific CH4 emissions for century URBAN-­‐scale Temporal inventories. longer term climate decade weather IPCC year NGGIP naVonal GHG Scale of day inventory Current Field methodologies Methods Scale of minute biogenic methane processes second S

6. Slide 6: Session will include

   Session will include: J. Bogner: “No More California Dreaming: Applying Science-­‐Based Modeling Tools to CH4 Emissions from Waste” o Overview & shortcomings of current IPCC methodologies/ models [IPCC, 2006] compared to California field data. o New field-­‐validated method [CALMIM] for site-­‐specific

7. Slide 7: No More California Dreaming

   Annual cycle for CH4 emissions: Intermediate Cover (45 cm sandy loam) WMN. California Livermore landfill Intermediate 1 Default 200 emissions without soil oxidaVon Surface Emissions (g/m2/day) 180 160 140 No More California Dreaming: 120 Applying Science-­‐Based 100 emissions with 80 60 oxidaVon Mod

8. Slide 8: Note: Will Include

   Will include: Note: o Current NGGIP landfill & wastewater methodologies: [IPCC, 1996, 2006]: industrial mass balance approach w/ primary dependencies on CH4 generaVon from landfilled waste or wastewater BOD w/ fracVon emioed. Will Include: o Focus on landfill methods/focus on California: Overview & sho

9. Slide 9: All landfill CH4 pathways and CH4 mass balance

   ALL landfill CH4 pathways and CH4 mass balance a = b + c + d + e + Δf (a)Methane generated in anaerobic waste (methanogens) = the sum of (b) Methane recovered by engineered systems + (c) Methane oxidized to CO2 in cover soils CO2 [methanotrophs] + (d) Methane emiPed (d) CH4 (c) CH4 à CO2 cover soil

10. Slide 10: Current IPCC (2006) GHG inventory methodology

    v Current IPCC (2006) GHG inventory methodology uses a simplified mass balance where… Modeled CH4 emissions = [modeled CH4 generaTon – esTmated or measured CH4 recovery] * 0.9 § EsTmate total annual LFG generaTon from waste-­‐in-­‐place using 1st order kineTc model § Determine the % CH4 (oeen assu

11. Slide 11: Example of modeled generation using IPCC first order kinetic model

    Example for modeled generaVon using current IPCC (2006) mulVcomponent first order kineVc “FOD” Model: • Here using 2 components only… • Kine*c constant (k) values ranging from 0.02 to 0.4, assumed to be related to climate… For each component, the degradable organic carbon [DOC] converted to biogas at

12. Slide 12: Source of kinetic model?

    Source of kineVc model?: one of many applied to 1st commercial landfill biogas uVlizaVon projects in California: ü Goal was to predict future recovery from past performance. Halvadakis et al. ü Now IPCC (1996, 2006) applied to every Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University (1983) 157 p.

13. Slide 13: What's wrong with these models for predicting landfill CH4 emissions?

    What’s wrong with these models for predicVng landfill CH4 emissions? v Models never field-­‐validated for CH4 emissions. [“ValidaVon” consisted of comparing measured recovery to modeled generaTon at limited # sites] v Model results do not match a growing database of field measurements for CH4 emissio

14. Slide 14: What else is wrong with the application of IPCC (2006)?

    What else is wrong with the applicaVon of IPCC (2006) to site-­‐specific landfill CH4 emissions? v Results in a primary dependency of emissions on WIP. v Example: 2011 California landfill CH4 inventory values using IPCC (2006) “FOD” model w/assumed 75% biogas “collecVon efficiency”, where applicable. 3

15. Slide 15: What is the result?

    What is the result? ü Impossible for sites to reduce emissions below a certain threshold… ü Discourages proven engineering soluVons to reduce emissions [no concurrent “credit”… Australian carbon tax example…] ü Tends to reward “non-­‐opVmized” gas recovery [assigned collecVon efficiency…] 16,000 Es

16. Slide 16: Linear dependence of biogas recovery rate on landfilled waste

    Linear dependence of 2010 avg. annual biogas recovery rate on 2010 mass of landfilled waste [128 landfills] California biogas recovery sites: 16000 Empirical relaVonship Avg. Annual Biogas recovery rate (Nm3 hr-­‐1) 14000 w/ constant rate y = 0.000245x of biogas recovery 12000 r² = 0.82 per unit mass

17. Slide 17: Linear dependence of biogas recovery rate on landfilled waste

    Linear dependence of 2010 avg. annual biogas recovery rate on 2010 mass of landfilled waste [128 landfills] 16000 Avg. Annual Biogas recovery rate (Nm3 hr-­‐1) 14000 12000 y = 0.000245x r² = 0.82 10000 2010 CALRECYLE Average Also plooed original Landfill Gas Recovery Rate 8000 (Nm3 h-­‐1) Normalized to

18. Slide 18: California Landfill Methane Inventory Model (CALMIM, v 5.4)

    CAlifornia Landfill Methane Inventory Model (CALMIM, v 5.4) Summary of major processes & dependencies: • Climate effects on soil moisture & temperature in individual cover soils. • Heat, water, and gaseous transport [1-­‐D diffusional soil gas CH4 and O2 transport in individual cover soils]. • Soil moi

19. Slide 19: CALMIM inputs and embedded models

    CAlifornia Landfill Methane Inventory Model (CALMIM, v 5.4): JAVA model freely available at ars.usda.gov. " INPUTs: Site laVtude & longitude; surface area, thickness, and texture of each cover soil or alternaVve materials; % of each cover area with gas recovery & seasonal vegetaVon. " Embedded USDA c

20. Slide 20: How CALMIM calculates oxidation

    How CALMIM calculates oxidaVon… • Rate calculated every 10-­‐min for 2.5 cm depth increments for 365 days. • All rates scaled to a maximum rate for modeled soil temperature & SMP [soil moisture 1.0 potenVal] using these 1.2 1.0 0.8 relaVonships… 0.8 0.6 0.6 Oxidation 0.4 4 0.2 0.4 OpVmum CondiVons?

21. Slide 21: Standard CALMIM output

    Standard CALMIM output: 10-min. surface CH4 emissions w/ & w/o oxidation over “Typical Annual Cycle” Here: WMIntermediate Cover1 (45 Livermore Intermediate cm sandy loam) at N. California site Default 200 DIRECT COMPARISON of: Surface Emissions (g/m2/day) 180 160 “modeled emissions 140 without oxida

22. Slide 22: CALMIM output for a contrasting climate & cover (Austria)

    Example: CALMIM output for a contrasVng climate & cover (Austria) including examples of automaVcally-­‐generated graphs St. Polten, Austria: Cell TC4 (Custom CH4 Boundary) 30 cm compost/ 300 280 Surface Emissions (g/m2/day) 30 cm loam 260 240 220 200 biocover 180 160 140 test cell 120 100 80 60 40 2

23. Slide 23: CALMIM – Quick Tour

    CALMIM – Quick Tour: JAVA tool: compaVble w/PC, MAC, UNIX download at: www.ars.usda.gov

24. Slide 24: CALMIM 5.4 input screen: site location, waste footprint

    CALMIM 5.4 Two input screens: (1) site locaVon, waste footprint MapVle servers

25. Slide 25: CALMIM 5.4 input screen: cover type, soil

    CALMIM 5.4 Two input screens: (2) cover type, soil, % area with gas recovery… MapVle servers

26. Slide 26: Field validation of CALMIM

    Field validaVon of CALMIM [independent of model development]: (1) First project for California [2006-­‐2010 project]: Seasonal campaigns at 2 California landfills over 2 years w/ addiVonal data from 5 other California sites. (2) Second CALMIM project [2011-­‐2014 project]: Field measurements for 40 c

27. Slide 27: Comparison of CALMIM modeling to field measurements at California landfills

    Comparison of CALMIM modeling to field measurements at 10 California landfills. All units are in g CH4 m-­‐2 d-­‐1. For CALMIM results, BLUE LINE = surface emissions without oxidaVon. BLACK LINE = emissions with oxidaVon, Region between is shaded in light blue. Field results are plooed for the month o

28. Slide 28: How to use CALMIM: two different modes

    HOW to USE CALMIM? è 2 different modes Annual GHG inventory [DEFAULT mode]: Uses 30-­‐year average climate data & default soil gas profiles for each cover type (daily, intermediate, final). Uses a standardized reducVon in soil gas CH4 at base of each cover type relaVve to the extent of engineered gas

29. Slide 29: Default mode example for annual GHG inventory

    (1) “Default Mode” example for annual GHG inventory: Re-­‐did the 2010 California GHG inventory using CALMIM, then compared results to the 2010 California ARB (Air Resources Board) inventory using IPCC (2006)… CALMIM input data included: a) 2010 site-­‐specific cover areas from CalRecycles (Californi

30. Slide 30: Results: New 2010 California Inventory

    Results: New 2010 California Inventory using CALMIM 5.4 compared to ARB (using IPCC, 2006) Mg CH4/yr CALMIM IPCC Annual state-­‐wide total (Mg CH4/year): 337,430 301,748 Similar totals but very different regional distribuVon

31. Slide 31: Why: major differences between California inventories

    WHY?: Major differences between California inventories… IPCC (2006): Highest-­‐emi…ng sites correlated with sites containing largest mass of waste. CALMIM inventory: Highest-­‐emi…ng sites associated with large areas of thinner intermediate cover (96% of emissions) and low seasonal oxidaVon rates (to

32. Slide 32: Seasonality of monthly California emissions & oxidation

    Total Estimated Emissions (Mg/month) Total Emissions without Ox (Mg/month) Estimated CH4 emissions 300,000 max/min: (Mg/month) 250,000 w/o oxidaVon: 200,000 <2–fold difference 150,000 April: 5,183 Mg Oct: 89,611 Mg w/oxidaVon: 100,000 17–fold 50,000 difference -­‐ J Jan Dec F MMar A M May J Jun J AAug

33. Slide 33: Different drivers for different methods

    Different drivers for different methods and the 11 highest emi…ng sites from each method: waste 1.4e+8 2010 waste in place (tons) mass 1.2e+8 1.0e+8 Waste in Place (tons) 8.0e+7 6.0e+7 4.0e+7 2.0e+7 IPCC 0.0 0 10000 20000 30000 CARB 2010 CH4 Emission EsVmates ARB 2010 Emission Estimates (Mg/yr) CARB (

34. Slide 34: Custom CALMIM applications: what-if modeling of alternative soils

    Custom CALMIM applicaVons: “What if?” modeling of alternaVve soils & thicknesses. Below: emissions for range of cover thicknesses at specific site loamy sand IC black: 30 cm 37o N orange: 45 cm Emissions with oxidaVon green: 60 cm 122o W (g CH4 m-­‐2 d-­‐1) yellow: 75 cm blue: 90 cm turquoise: 120 cm

35. Slide 35: Effect of Climate: Latitudinal Study

    Effect of Climate: LaVtudinal Study LaVtudinal study using CALMIM assuming “minimum” final cover of 0.5 m sand

36. Slide 36: Latitudinal study for minimum 50 cm sand final cover

    LaVtudinal study for “minimum” 50 cm sand final cover: each site using same scale (0-­‐450 g m-­‐2 d-­‐1). E%#*#F0"'G#F08H'!"#$%&"'()*++*,&+'I8'E%#*#F0"'1?@>')'+%&0'B*&%=';,J"D9' 9=97 Norway/Tromso E%#KL? 9877 Finland/Helsinki E%#KM? 8:97 Canada/Vancouver !"#$%&"'()*++*,&+'-*#$'./*0%#*,&'1234'56)760%

37. Slide 37: Simulation of emissions under future climate change scenarios

    SimulaVon of emissions under future climate change scenarios at various laVtudes… 100 90 Projec*on for increased % oxida*on Percent Oxida*on 80 70 in clay final cover soil, Lulea, Sweden: 60 2020, 2050, 2099 50 40 due to warmer temperatures… 30 using SRES* B1 scenario. 20 10 Cover thickness: 0 blue 2

38. Slide 38: Annual framework for field measurements, Indiana landfill

    Annual “framework” for field measurements using “whole landfill” techniques—Indiana landfill. GREEN: CALMIM average monthly emissions w/ oxidaVon + SD; YELLOW: CALMIM without oxidaVon -­‐ SD ; GRAY: box & whisker plots for measured emissions in specific months using aircrah mass balance technique; BLUE:

39. Slide 39: Uncertainty comparisons: modeling vs. field measurements at 5 Indiana landfills

    Uncertainty comparisons-­‐Modeling vs. Field measurements at 5 Indiana landfills: Least squares linear regression comparing CALMIM modeling [y-­‐axis; Uncertainty = SD of monthly avg emissions, 10-­‐min Vmesteps] to aircrah mass balance results [x-­‐axis; uncertainty = ± 30%]. Units = mol CH4 sec-­‐1

40. Slide 40: Indianapolis: Southside Landfill emissions

    and horizontal distance for the 12 July 2011 flight experiment for which we saw enhancements in the CH4 plume between 20 to 100 ppb above background. The black broken line (Figure 2B) at -31 km represents the boundary of the projected city width in the southwest side of our flight transects. Our hor

41. Slide 41: To conclude

    To conclude: o CALMIM is a science-­‐based, field-­‐validated, user-­‐friendly inventory method focusing on the major processes which control landfill CH4 emissions. o Beoer numbers are needed… …for GHG inventory & management decisions regarding landfill CH4 emissions at a specific global locaVon. …to r

42. Slide 42: Merci Beaucoup!

    Merci Beaucoup! Project sponsors: • Environmental Research & EducaVon FoundaVon (EREF) 2011-­‐2014 • California Energy Commission PIER Program 2006-­‐2010 Also: • California Dept. of Resources Recycling and Recovery (CallRecycle) & Air Resources Board (ARB) • Los Angeles County SanitaVon Districts •

43. Slide 43: CALMIM—Selected Bibliography

    CALMIM—Selected Bibliography/journal arVcles & EREF final report: Spokas, K., Bogner, J., Corcoran, M., and Walker, S. From California Dreaming to California Data: Challenging Historic Models for Landfill CH4 emissions, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene [Elem. Sci. Anth.] 3: 000051 doi: 10.12952/j

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