Xcel Energy Inc. · NASDAQ:XEL
Xcel Energy — Q1 2023 Earnings Presentation
31 slides from Xcel Energy's earnings presentation, Apr 27, 2023
Slide 1: 2023 First Quarter Earnings Report Presentation
2023 FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS REPORT PRESENTATION APRIL 27, 2023
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor Except for the historical statements contained in this presentation, the matters discussed herein are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forward-looking statements, including those relating to 2023 EPS guidance, long-term EPS
Slide 3: Financial and Operational Highlights
Financial and Operational Highlights • Approval of Minnesota natural gas rate case settlement • Received ALJ recommended decision for Minnesota electric rate case • Raised dividend by 6.7% (20th consecutive increase) • Progress on renewable RFPs at NSP, PSCo and SPS • Submitted full DOE applications
Slide 4: Generation RFPs Outstanding
Generation RFPs Outstanding RFP Scope* Key Dates • IRP needs through 2028 • Bids received March 2023 • 2,800 MW renewables • Recommended portfolio Summer 2023 PSCo • 200 MW storage • CPUC decision Fall 2023 • 1,176 MW firm peaking • PSCo will file additional RFPs for remaining requirements • Bids re
Slide 5: Manage Customer Bills
Manage Customer Bills 2014-2023E Residential Electric CAGR = ~1.6% ~$3 Billion in Customer Savings 2014-2023E Natural Gas CAGR = ~1.3% from Wind Energy $98 $96 $89 $ Millions $83 $81 $84 $84 $1,100 $80 $81 $80 $81 $870 Electric $69 $62 $54 $400 $48 $48 $51 $250 $42 $45 $44 $150 $150 Natural Gas 2017
Slide 6: Quarterly GAAP and Ongoing EPS Change
Quarterly GAAP and Ongoing EPS Change $0.09 $0.02 $0.01 ( $0.08) $0.15 ($0.06) ($0.05) ( $0.02) $0.70 $0.76 2022 Q1 2023 Q1 EPS EPS * Includes PTCs and plant regulatory amounts, which are primarily offset in electric margin 5
Slide 7: Sales and Customer Data
Sales and Customer Data 2023 Q1 W/A Retail Electric Sales Growth 2023 Q1 YoY Electric Customer Growth 6.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% -1.3% -1.3% NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Xcel Energy NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Xcel Energy 2023 Q1 W/A Natural Gas Sales Growth 2023 Q1 YoY Natural Gas Customer Growth 1.2% 0.
Slide 8: NSPM Minnesota Natural Gas Rate Case
NSPM Minnesota Natural Gas Rate Case Proceeding No. 21-678 • In November 2021, NSPM filed a natural gas rate case: – Requesting rate increase of ~$36 million – ROE of 10.5% and equity ratio of 52.50% – Rate base of ~$934 million – 2022 forward test year • In 2021, the MPUC approved interim rates of
Slide 9: NSPM Minnesota Electric Rate Case
NSPM Minnesota Electric Rate Case Proceeding No. 21-630 • In October 2021, NSPM filed a three-year electric rate case: – Revised rate request seeking an increase of $498 million over three years – ROE of 10.2% and equity ratio of 52.5% – 2022 - 2024 forward test years $ Millions 2022 2023 2024 Total
Slide 10: SPS Texas Electric Rate Case
SPS Texas Electric Rate Case Proceeding No. 54634 • In February 2023, SPS filed an electric rate case requesting: − Revised base rate increase of ~$158 million − ROE of 10.65% and equity ratio of 54.6% − Rate base of ~$3.6 billion − Acceleration of Tolk coal plant retirement from 2034 to 2028 − Hist
Slide 11: PSCo Colorado Electric Rate Case
PSCo Colorado Electric Rate Case Proceeding No. 22AL-0530E • In November 2022, PSCo filed an electric rate case requesting: − Net base rate increase of ~$262 million − ROE of 10.25% and equity ratio of 55.7% − 2023 forward test year − Rate base of $11.3 billion • Requested effective date of Septembe
Slide 12: SPS New Mexico Electric Rate Case
SPS New Mexico Electric Rate Case Proceeding No. 22-00286-UT • In November 2022, SPS filed an electric rate case requesting: − Revised base rate increase of ~$76 million − ROE of 10.75% and equity ratio of 54.7% − Rate base of ~$2.4 billion − Acceleration of Tolk coal plant depreciation life from 20
Slide 13: NSPW Wisconsin Electric & Natural Gas Rate Case
NSPW Wisconsin Electric & Natural Gas Rate Case • In April 2023, NSPW expects to file an electric and natural gas rate case requesting: − Base electric rate increase of ~$40 million − Base natural gas rate increase of ~$9 million − ROE of 10.25% and equity ratio of 52.5% − 2024 forward test year • P
Slide 14: 2023 GAAP and Ongoing EPS Guidance: $3.30 - $3.40
2023 GAAP and Ongoing EPS Guidance: $3.30 - $3.40 Earnings Drivers Key Assumptions (as compared to 2022 levels unless noted) Regulatory proceedings Constructive outcomes in all proceedings Weather Normal weather patterns for the remainder of the year W/A retail electric sales Increase of ~1% W/A ret
Slide 15: Appendix
APPENDIX 14
Slide 16: ROE Results – GAAP and Ongoing Earnings
ROE Results – GAAP and Ongoing Earnings GAAP and Ongoing ROE 2022E Rate Base Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2023 SPS 10.90% 17% 9.92% 9.41% 8.88% 8.56% 8.90% NSPM ~$39 39% PSCo Billion 39% NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Total Xcel NSPW OpCo Energy 5% 15
Slide 17: EPS Results by Operating Company
EPS Results by Operating Company First Quarter Operating Company 2023 2022 PSCo $ 0.39 $ 0.32 NSPM 0.25 0.23 SPS 0.10 0.10 NSPW 0.08 0.09 Equity earnings 0.01 0.01 Regulated utility 0.83 0.75 Holding company and other (0.07) (0.05) Total GAAP and Ongoing diluted EPS $ 0.76 $ 0.70 16
Slide 18: Base Capital Expenditures by Function
Base Capital Expenditures by Function $ Millions 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Total Electric Distribution $1,610 $1,790 $1,680 $2,000 $2,450 $9,530 Electric Transmission $1,280 $1,650 $1,890 $1,690 $1,900 $8,410 Electric Generation $710 $910 $900 $560 $650 $3,730 Natural Gas $740 $730 $760 $650 $680 $3,
Slide 19: Base Capital Expenditures by Company
Base Capital Expenditures by Company $ Millions 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Total NSPM $2,000 $2,400 $2,530 $2,200 $2,580 $11,710 NSPW $540 $570 $500 $450 $540 $2,600 PSCo $2,140 $2,440 $2,550 $1,980 $2,190 $11,300 SPS $710 $780 $720 $770 $900 $3,880 Other* $10 $10 ($30) $10 $10 $10 Total $5,400 $6,200
Slide 20: Financing Plan 2023 - 2027
Financing Plan 2023 - 2027* $ Millions $325 $425 $8,210 $3,800 $3,800 $29,500 $20,540 CFO** Maturing Refinanced Incremental Equity Equity Base Plan LT Debt LT Debt Debt (Other) (DRIP) * Financing plans reflect tax credit transferability and are subject to change ** Cash from operations is net of div
Slide 21: 2023 Debt Financing Plan
2023 Debt Financing Plan $ Millions Issuer Security Amount Status Tenor Coupon PSCo First Mortgage Bonds $850 Completed 30-Yr 5.25% NSPW First Mortgage Bonds $125 Q2* 30-Yr 5.30% NSPM First Mortgage Bonds $800 Q2 N/A N/A Hold Co Unsecured Bonds $500 Q3 N/A N/A SPS First Mortgage Bonds $100 Q3 N/A N/
Slide 22: Strong Credit Metrics
Strong Credit Metrics Plan 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 FFO/Debt ~18% ~19% ~18% ~18% ~18% Debt/EBITDA 4.9x 4.9x 4.9x 4.9x 4.9x Equity Ratio 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% Hold Co Debt/Total Debt 24.1% 24.3% 24.9% 24.7% 24.9% Credit Ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch Xcel Energy Unsecured Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ NSPM Secured Aa3 A A
Slide 23: Long-Term Transmission Buildout
Long-Term Transmission Buildout Major Expansion to Enable More Renewables NSP PSCo NSP Tranche 1 cap ex of ~$1.2 billion ~$1.7 billion Pathway enables 5.5 GW renewables via 560 miles of 345 kV lines NSP Futures 1: Estimated cumulative $4 - $5 billion investment (over 10-15 years) Additional $0.5 - $
Slide 24: Transmission Expansion - MISO Tranche 1
Transmission Expansion - MISO Tranche 1 MISO Tranche 1 (in service by 2030) • 18 projects totaling $10.3 billion 2 Xcel Energy Preliminary Estimates 5 4 • ~$1.2 billion based on the following:* 6 2 Alexandria - Cassie’s Crossing 4 Wilmarth - North Rochester - Tremval 5 Tremval - Eau Claire - Jump Ri
Slide 25: Minnesota Resource Plan
Minnesota Resource Plan 85% Carbon Reduction & Coal Exit by 2030 Full coal exit by 2030 Significant renewable additions • King (511 MW) retire 2028 • 2,500 MW universal scale solar • Sherco 3 (517 MW) retire 2030 • 2,150 MW wind • Additional 1,100 MW beyond 2032 Firm peaking capacity (reliability dr
Slide 26: Colorado Resource Plan
Colorado Resource Plan 85% Carbon Reduction & Coal Exit by 2030 Full coal exit by 2030 Significant renewable additions • Hayden 1 & 2 (233 MW) retire 2028/2027 • ~2,300 MW wind • Pawnee (505 MW) conversion to natural • ~1,600 MW universal scale solar gas no later than January 2026 • ~1,200 MW distri
Slide 27: NSPM South Dakota Electric Rate Case
NSPM South Dakota Electric Rate Case Proceeding No. EL22-017 • In June 2022, NSPM filed an electric rate case requesting: − Rate increase of ~$44 million − ROE of 10.75% and equity ratio of 53% − Rate base of ~$947 million − 2021 historic test year • Interim rates of ~$44 million implemented in Janu
Slide 28: 2023 Q1 W/A Electric Sales Growth
2023 Q1 W/A Electric Sales Growth NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Residential C&I Total Retail 7.2% 6.3% 3.1% 0.6% 0.2% -1.2%-1.3% -1.3% -0.9% -0.9% -1.4% -1.3% Extreme weather variations, windchill and cloud cover may not be reflected in estimates 27
Slide 29: Xcel Energy W/A Sales Growth
Xcel Energy W/A Sales Growth Residential C&I Total Retail Electric Natural Gas Electric Natural Gas 3.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.8% 0.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% -0.4% -0.7% -1.3% 2023 2023 2023 2023 2021* 2022 YTD 2021* 2022 YTD 2021* 2022 YTD 2021* 2022 YTD * Leap year adjusted Extreme weather variations, windchil
Slide 30: 2023 Q2 Events
2023 Q2 Events Events Dates Citi Energy and Climate Technology Conference May 9 AGA Financial Forum May 21-23 RBC Global Energy, Power & Infrastructure Conference June 7 J.P. Morgan Conference June 22 29
Slide 31: © 2023 Xcel Energy Inc.
(2) Xcel Energy’ © 2023 Xcel Energy Inc.