Wartsila Oyj Abp · OMXHEX:WRT1V
Wartsila Oyj Abp — Wärtsilä — Interconnect California Webinar Series Part Three (October 2020)
27 slides from Wartsila Oyj Abp's conference presentation, Oct 7, 2020
Slide 1: Renewables for California
Renewables for California October 7th 2020 Pathto100.org
Slide 2: Presenters
Presenters Scott Miller Gary Ackerman Executive Director, President Western Power Trading Foothill Services, Inc Forum Moderator Speaker Jussi Heikkinen Gary Dorris Director, Growth & Development, Ph.D, CEO & Co-Founder Americas Ascend Analytics Wärtsilä Speaker Speaker
Slide 3: Content
Decarbonizing Electricity in California by 2045 Content 1. California decarbonization scenarios 2. Managing heat waves 3. Summary
Slide 4: California decarbonization scenarios
California decarbonization scenarios Situation & Plan Path to 100 approach • Firm decarbonization targets • Search for the optimal decarbonization plan for • Dependency of imports California using leading software & supercomputers • Rapid growth of solar power • White Paper & webinar in March, added
Slide 5: Scenarios
Scenarios New scenario Current Plan* Current Plan Optimal Path+ (PtM) Optimal Path (PtM) Optimal Path (PtH) Without any thermal • Follows the 2019 state • OTC retirement • OTC retirement 2023 • OTC retirement 2023 • OTC retirement 2023 IRP (46 MMT Alternate delayed to 2026+ • OTC’s repowered with •
Slide 6: Common Assumptions to all Scenarios
Common Assumptions to all Scenarios 100-percent clean energy by 2045. Carbon Neutral by 2027. Neighboring states decarbonize their power generation by 2045 • Fossil balancing power will not be available from the neighbors in 2045 Modelling approach • Plexos can add all technologies to the power syst
Slide 7: Content
Decarbonizing Electricity in California by 2045 Content 1. California decarbonization scenarios 2. Managing heat waves 3. Summary
Slide 8: Managing heat waves
Managing heat waves! Current Plan (IRP) • OTC retirements delayed until 2026 • ”Generic Effective Capacity” as a “perfectly dispatchable peaker with zero emissions” replaces OTC´s 2026 Cumulative capacity additions until 2030 40 38GW Optimal Path 35 33GW • Faster addition of solar and battery storag
Slide 9: Scenario comparison
Scenario comparison System capacity in 2045 700 Current Plan Current Plan Optimal Path+ Optimal Path Optimal Path (IRP) w/o thermal (PtM) (PtM) (PtH) 600 500 Wind Power system capacity 2045, GW 263 588 242 237 231 Battery + Pump Storage, GWh 515 1957 438 443 393 Solar 400 Battery GW Fuel Storage, GW
Slide 10: Carbon Emissions during the Path
Carbon Emissions during the Path 60 140 Optimal Path allows faster growth of renewables, without 50 120 OTC extensions 100 Optimal Path avoids 124 MtCO2 40 of Carbon compared to Current Cumulative MtCO2 80 Path MtCO2 Current Plan 30 Optimal Path (PtM) 60 Current Plan meets 60% RPS Optimal Path+ (PtM
Slide 11: Future fuel's production process
Future fuel´s production process Direct Air Carbon Capture Excess Renewable Electricity Methanizer Carbon Neutral Methane to natural gas Electrolyzer network, or to LNG Hydrogen for flexible power plants
Slide 12: New Approach to Electricity Storage
New Approach to Electricity Storage • Ancillary services Short Term Storage Conversion • Minute-to-hour-to-daily balancing 158 GWh (PtM) / 108 GWh (PtH) Inverter • Daily shifting of solar Excess Renewable Balancing Power for Electricity the Grid Long Term Storage Conversion 7650 GWh (PtM) / 13617 GW
Slide 13: Content
Decarbonizing Electricity in California by 2045 Content 1. California decarbonization scenarios 2. Managing heat waves 3. Summary
Slide 14: Key takeaways
Affordable Key takeaways Smart Power System Reliable Sustainable 1. Optimal Path+ outlined in the study offers a practical path to 100 % for California • Faster & complete decarbonization with lower costs for ratepayers • Maximized security of supply ensured even during extreme heat waves 2. Power t
Slide 15: White Paper available at PATHTO100.ORG
White Paper available at PATHTO100.ORG
Slide 16: Case Study: Resource Selection for the Environment and Reliability
Case Study: Resource Selection for the Environment and Reliability Using Analytics to Build Consensus and Find Win-Wins for Future Resource Portfolios Dr. Gary Dorris, CEO, Ascend Analytics Wartsila September 23, 2020 17
Slide 17: About Ascend Analytics
About Ascend Analytics • Founded in 2002 with 50 employees in Boulder, Oakland and Bozeman • Seven integrated software products for operations, portfolio analytics, and planning • Consulting and custom analytical solutions Proven and Broadly Adopted Enhanced Decision Analysis Across Time PowerSimm O
Slide 18: Clean Energy Resources for Grayson Replacement
Clean Energy Resources for Grayson Replacement • Natural gas steam unit, built in 1940s. Provides critical local generation in a transmission constrained area • Pathway to 100% renewable “The resource portfolio recommended in this Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) will firmly establish Glendale Water a
Slide 19: Glendale Water and Power (GWP)
Glendale Water and Power (GWP) Glendale’s load significantly exceeds the available local supply, therefore transmission is critical for reliability RICE Local Replacement Portfolio for Grayson 1-8 210 MW Glendale 2025 344 MW 20 20
Slide 20: Reliability Requirements: N-1-1
Reliability Requirements: N-1-1 NERC standards require GWP to maintain contingency reserves up to an N-1-1 contingency situation in which the second largest resource fails while the first largest resource is unavailable RICE The 100 MW Pacific DC 48 MW Magnolia Power Plant with a forced Intertie whi
Slide 21: Alternatives Considered
Alternatives Considered winner Portfolio B – NG C – ICE D – 50 E – 75 MW F – 100 G – 100% Repower Repower MW Batt Batt + MW Batt + Clean + 6xICE 5xICE 3xICE Candidate Resource Nameplate Capacity (MW) Clean Energy Residential DER 13 13 13 13 + Load Public Spaces DER 10 10 10 20 Reduction Residential
Slide 22: Present Value Cost Comparison
Present Value Cost Comparison Portfolio E is the least-cost portfolio that incorporates clean energy and load reduction resources identified through the Clean Energy RFP. 23
Slide 23: Marginal Abatement Cost of Carbon
Marginal Abatement Cost of Carbon • The cost of each marginal metric ton of carbon saved in moving from Portfolio E to Portfolio F is $1,264/tonnes, the cost of moving to Portfolio G is $2,243/tonnes • Alternative carbon abatement strategies exist that are more cost-effective 41% of CA emissions fro
Slide 24: Clean and Renewable
Clean and Renewable Clean and renewable resources to compromise over 71% of energy in 2030 25
Slide 25: GWP will exceed emissions reductions goals
GWP will exceed emissions reductions goals through clean energy and transportation electrification • EV emissions savings is calculated to account for tailpipe emissions avoided with new EVs • This emissions credit shows that GWP’s net emissions become negative starting in 2029 Electric utilities en
Slide 26: Key Lessons Learned
Key Lessons Learned • Listen to your stakeholders, hire an external professional facilitator and address concerns • Issue the RFP to inform your resource procurement and plan • Leverage advanced modeling and share results in a clear transparent manner • Frame choice set not only in terms of electric
Slide 27: Thank You!
THANK YOU! White Paper available at PATHTO100.ORG
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