Stifel Financial Corporation · NYSE:SF
Stifel Financial — September Retail Sales Preview Conference Call (October 2014)
17 slides from Stifel Financial's conference presentation, Oct 6, 2014
Slide 1: September Retail Sales Preview Conference Call - Slides Attached
October 6, 2014 Consumer & Retail Restaurants Conference Call/Schedule September Retail Sales Preview Conference Call - Slides Attached September Retail Sales Preview Call Date and Time: Monday, October 6, 2014 at 2:00 pm ET Hosted by: Richard Jaffe - Softlines Retail Analyst David Schick - Hardline
Slide 2: September Retail Sales Preview Call
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 September Retail Sales Preview Call Stifel Retail Research Team’s Monthly Sales Preview Call October 6, 2014 – 2:00 PM ET Hosted By: Richard Jaffe David Schick Jim Duffy Softlines Retail Analyst Hardlines Retail Analyst Sports and Lifestyle Analyst (212)
Slide 3: Softlines Retail Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Softlines Retail Outlook Erratic September Sales September sales will make the quarter for some and lose it for others. This is the biggest month of the quarter; retailers need to sell through the fall assortments and prepare for the holiday merchandise
Slide 4: Hardlines Retail Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Hardlines Retail Outlook READ Discretionary Spending Intentions Remain Up Y/Y: Net discretionary spending intentions (our best approximation of overall discretionary retail comp) rose +2% y/y in September, after rising +3% y/y in August, and +4% y/y in J
Slide 5: Sports & Lifestyle Brands Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Sports & Lifestyle Brands Outlook Flashes of Seasonal Weather Help September Demand in the US, Europe and Asia Not Necessarily Onboard for the Ride U.S. September Trends Encouraging, Headwinds Overseas. Following an encouraging back to school selling sea
Slide 6: Restaurants Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Restaurants Outlook Restaurants Industry September 2014 Observations Sales Headline: September Industrywide Comp of +1.5%E vs. August+1.4%A; Sequential Improvement in Comps Sept14 industrywide comps are +1.5%E (vs. Aug14’s +1.4%A); 3Q14 comps are +1.1%A
Slide 7: Restaurants Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Restaurants Outlook 3Q14 SSS to Beat Consensus After 4 QTRS of "Misses" Consensus Actual Estimate* Difference 3Q13 0.0% +0.5% -50bps 4Q13 0.0% +0.5% -50bps 1Q14 (0.5%) +0.5% -100bps Reversal 2Q14 +0.8% +1.3% -50bps 3Q14 +1.0% +0.5% +50bps 4Q14E NM +1.5%
Slide 8: Restaurants Outlook
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Restaurants Outlook Source: Stifel estimates; Thomson One; FactSet, BLS Page 8 7
Slide 9: Monthly U.S. Auto Sales
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Monthly U.S. Auto Sales Total Monthly New Vehicle Sales (SAAR in mm) Total Annual Light New Vehicle Unit Sales (Units in mm) 18.0 14.0% 18 20.0% 16.9 17.0 16.8 17.0 17.5 16.7 16.6 16.2 16.4 16 13% 15.6 15.0% 12% 16.9 12.0% 17.0 16.7 11% 10% 14.5 11% 11%
Slide 10: Softlines Retail Comp Sheet
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Softlines Retail Comp Sheet 12 Mo. Price Mkt Cap 52 Week Stock Perf EPS Absolute P/E Hist Rel Forward 3Q EPS EV / EBITDA (1) Company Rating Target 10/3/14 (mm) High Low YTD LTM 2013A 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E P/E Range 13A 14E % Chg 2013A 2014E 2015E U.S.
Slide 11: Softlines Retail Same Store Sales Estimates
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Softlines Retail Same Store Sales Estimates September Same Store Sales Preview Consensus Same Store Sales EPS Est. Stifel EPS Estimates Price Ticker Stifel Est. Consensus LY 3Q14 3Q14 FY14 FY15 Rating Target 10/3/2014 GPS 1% - 3% 1.7 % (3)% $0.83 $0.84 $
Slide 12: Hardlines Retail Comp Sheet
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Hardlines Retail Comp Sheet 12-Mth Price Mkt Cap Div Store LTM EPS P/E EV / EBITDA Average 2013-2014E Company Rating Target 10/3/14 (billions) Yield Count Return 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E FCF Yld LTD/Cap ROIC Footage Home Improve
Slide 13: Sports & Lifestyle Brands Comp Sheet
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Sports & Lifestyle Brands Comp Sheet Sports and Lifestyle Coverage Price S.I. as TEV/EBITDA P/E PEG 12-Month Ticker 10/3 % of float Mkt. Cap Cash TEV D/E 5YR Median CY13A CY14E CY15E 5YR Median CY13A CY14E CY15E 5YR Median CY13A CY14E CY15E Rating Target
Slide 14: Restaurants Comp Sheet
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Restaurants Comp Sheet Performance C2014E C2015E 2014E 2015E 10/3/14 Market 4 12 Div. Short C2014E C2014E C2015E C2015E C2014E C2015E C2014E C2014E C2015E C2015E EV/ EV/ EPS EPS Ticker Company Name Rating Cap EV Week YTD Month Yield Int. EPS Adj. EPS EPS
Slide 15: Auto Dealers: Comp Sheet & Proprietary S.A.A.R. Regression
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Auto Dealers: Comp Sheet & Proprietary S.A.A.R. Regression 12-Mth Price Mkt Cap Ent. Value Dividend EPS P/E EV / EBITDA FY13 Company Rating Target 10/3/14 (mm) (mm) Yield 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E Debt/Cap Adj. ROIC Auto
Slide 16: Important Disclosures and Certifications
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Important Disclosures and Certifications I, Paul Westra, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers; and I, Paul Westra, certify that no part of my compensation wa
Slide 17: Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014
Consumer & Retail Restaurants October 6, 2014 Economic Area. (Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited home office: London +44 20 7557 6030.) No investments or services mentioned are available in the European Economic Area to retail clients or to anyone in Canada other than a Designated Institution. This inve
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