Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. · ASX:TGF
Tribeca Global Natural Resources — Investor Presentation (May 2024)
45 slides from Tribeca Global Natural Resources's investor presentation, May 10, 2024
Slide 1: Investor Update – May 2024
10 May 2024 ASX Market Announcements ASX Limited 20 Bridge Street Sydney NSW 2000 BY ELECTRONIC LODGEMENT For personal use only Investor Update – May 2024 Please find attached Investor Update Presentation. The information contained in this document has been prepared for use in conjunction with a ver
Slide 2: Recommended
For personal use only RECOMMENDED
Slide 3: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited (ABN 16 627 596 418) (“TGF”) by its investment manager, Tribeca Global Resources Pty Ltd (ABN 11 606 707 662) (“Tribeca”) under AFS License 239070 (Tribeca Investment Partners Pty Ltd). The information contai
Slide 4: Executive Summary
Tribeca Global Natural Resources Executive Summary 04 Performance Update 05 Market Structure Improving 09 Fundamentals Increasingly Positive 21 Key Portfolio Exposures 31 Appendix 38
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> Tribeca Global Natural Resources oS
Slide 7: 2024 Performance
2024 Performance For personal use only TGF performance in CY24 to end April ~3% after a soft Jan and Feb on the back of weakness across Base and Battery Metals the portfolio bounced in March and April Performance driven by exposures to Base Metals 4.2% and Uranium 4.3% while key detractors were from
Slide 8: Performance Statistics
Performance Statistics Tribeca Performance Attribution by Sector - CYTD 2024 Net Exposure By Sector - April 2024 exsenerns owersreo _—— eeeCOUSMETAS PRECOUS ETA —= ep __——— veaNun —= DU ——— exsenerns —— Oo ___—_—_—_—_—<— ous — O...mnnt otanncas = ie _— ces c o— corr coon c QD sor comoorY PRIVATE CRE
Slide 9: Performance Update
Performance Update (ASX:TGF) Tribeca Global Natural Resources 2018-19 2019-20 === 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 -0.52% 4.52% 0.79% 8.40% 0.79% -1.93% -0.19% -0.39% 5.10% -3.98% -0.54% 0.46% 3.72% 6.35% -0.14% -0.07% 0.60% 0.53% 4.22% 2.99% -5.10% -0.36% 0.79% 9.63% 4.36% 4.77% 1.73% -0.71% 3.67% 9
Slide 10: Market Structure Improving
Market Structure Mpreine
Slide 11: Market Structure Is Improving For TGF
Market Structure Is Improving For TGF Tribeca Global Natural Resources 1 | Lower inflation, lower rates. Fed likely cut rates in September and December. 2 | China recovery has begun, expect more fiscal and monetary stimulus to propel demand. 3 | Global equity bull market to continue, EM and Value ap
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For personal use only Recreate
Slide 13: China Stimulus Fighting Local Deflation, Driving Global Recovery
China Stimulus Fighting Local Deflation, Driving Global Recovery Tribeca Global Natural Resources Breakdown of China PMI Total Social Financing vs ISM Fixed Asset Investment Growth 53 60% 72 3mma yoy 50% 68 3” ° 40% 64 20 n 5 30% =) 60 \ 20% © 50 A Cc °° [e) ie) 10% Y 49 52 pai 0% or — Property Qo i
Slide 14: Equity Bull Market To Continue Fuelled By Rising Profits & Lower Rates
Equity Bull Market To Continue Fuelled By Rising Profits & Lower Rates For personal use only Global EPS vs ISM New Orders 8 R & 38 R —Global EPS (YoY%) & Ss xR —ISM New Orders (RHS) a 3 R Source: Refinitiv, Factset, MST Marquee * y-axis truncated Oil Prices & US ISM Manufacturing Prices* Index % 100
Slide 15: Global bull market and industry contribution
For personal use only Global bull market and industry contribution
Slide 16: Value Cheap vs Growth, Emerging Market Cheap vs Developed Market
Value Cheap vs Growth, Emerging Market Cheap vs Developed Market Tribeca Global Natural Resources S&P 500 Top vs Bottom Quintile PE > —_— Bottom quintile PE —Top quintile PE a 30 je) 7) 2: yy * High PE Medium = 21x =) a 20 TT YA I ee Cc [e) 15 Y pag @M jos ws Lo PE Median = 11x je) LL oO S$ 28 &Y¥ 3
Slide 17: Real Asset And Commodity Valuations At Relative Extremes
Real Asset And Commodity Valuations At Relative Extremes Tribeca Global Natural Resources u Real Assets Relative To Financial Assets Since 1925 Tech vs Commodities 45 Nasdaq 100 vs Commodities — 1 War on 4 . c Inflation 40 Mar ‘00 Feb '24 O o» a) * os GATT/Bretton i?) Woods 30 5. — 25 oO Fall of 0.6
Slide 18: ABC Trade Reversing, Flows Picking Up Into China
ABC Trade Reversing, Flows Picking Up Into China Tribeca Global Natural Resources © o ABC “Anything But China” trade reversed past 3 months Biggest inflow to China equity funds in 8 weeks ~ MSCI China (LHS) vs MSCI Japan (RHS) in USS Flows to China equity funds vs 4wk-ma Tal 18 12 20 fe) —MSCI China
Slide 19: Evolution of ESG policies by big asset managers will drive flow back into Resources
Evolution of “ESG” policies by BIG Asset Managers will drive flow BACK into Resources Tribeca BlackRock. The $10 trillion world’s largest asset manager has changed its tune on how it implements ESG policy. ESG 1.0 ESG 2.0 “move to divest thermal coal assets “foresighted companies across a and put al
Slide 20: Biggest deals in 2024
Biggest deals in 2024 For personal use only • • •
Slide 21: M&A Wave Playing Out: Corporates Recognising Value
M&A Wave Playing Out: Corporates Recognising Value - Ongoing supply challenges mean it remains cheaper and easier to buy than build > ce: Increasingly strategic nature of assets creates more competitive landscape © . Increasingly concentrated sector suggests control multiples will need to rise a - H
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Slide 23: Metals And Energy Generally Where We See The Most Upside
Metals And Energy Generally Where We See The Most Upside - We see most metals and energy being in demand ‘e) supply deficits for the remainder of this decade after = years of underinvestment in new supply coupled with robust demand growth * Copper and Copper equities have moved in 2024 but still hav
Slide 24: Copper And Producer Equities Have Moved But Plenty More To Go
Copper And Producer Equities Have Moved But Plenty More To Go Tribeca Global Natural Resources Copper still trading substantially below previous highs set in the early 1970's and 2010's cc... 16000 [e) First oil shock , Y 14000 China supercycle g ep) Pandemic 4 SS 12000 anf Second and third Hy — il
Slide 25: Supply Issues A Global Phenomenon
Supply Issues A Global Phenomenon Lower Grades / Cost Inflation / Social License issues kt Ny & 8 S ro) i) ° & & 3 3 3 i) & i) i) For personal use only -1000 Jan- Feb-Mar- Apr-May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- 23 Glencore Total 23 First Quantum ff Lundin Rio Tinto 23 23 23
Slide 26: Artificial Intelligence: Emerging Copper And Uranium Demand Centre
Artificial Intelligence: Emerging Copper And Uranium Demand Centre The US is driving data centre power demand growth, cw 8 R 8 3 ° 2020 ©2021 Electrification of heating and transport, data centers and Al- 2. driven future will create growth in power demand not seen in past 2 decades ersonal use only
Slide 27: Energy: Uranium Supply vs Demand Scenarios
Energy: Uranium Supply vs Demand Scenarios Tribeca Global Natural Resources Modelled demand increases of 30% to 2040 across all 3 scenarios from 2019 WNA report D> WNA 2023 Supply vs Demand Scenarios & 200000 Upper fo) Scenario ) 180,000 YW) 160,000 =) Reference 140,000 Scenario & 120,000 Lower @ 10
Slide 28: Geopolitics To Tighten Most Metals And Energy Sources
Geopolitics To Tighten Most Metals And Energy Sources Tribeca Global Natural Resources BaTERe Gee, Gate laksa Goan, Gbe PSAa ead Sas We estimate substitution to reach higher volumes and ° 7 i ne benefit aluminium prices into mid-decade > ‘ — ” . _ 650 65 Cc LME bans Russian-origin metal after UK, .
Slide 29: Oil & Gas Demand Keeps Rising And OPEC Supply Keeps Falling
Oil & Gas Demand Keeps Rising And OPEC Supply Keeps Falling lribeca Y/o/Y Change in OPEC Supply (million b/d) = OPEC || Other OPEC|] Venezvelalf Libya fJiran [UAE ff Saudi Arabic Nigeria J Kuwoit fJiroq Algeria Y/o/Y Change in Global Demand (million b/d) oO | hoa mmm OFCD 3 & ' ' 1 ' ' U q ' 2 ' ' w
Slide 30: Oil & Gas Producers Present Deep Value & Cash Flow Will Benefit From ESG 3.0
Oil & Gas Producers Present Deep Value & Cash Flow Will Benefit From ESG 3.0 lribeca 2025 EV/EBITDA vs 2023-2025 EBITDA CAGR ~ 22.0x 22.0x Cc 20.0x Real Estate 20.0x fe) . 18.0x Technology 18.0x ® ° YW) 60x 16.0x — 14.0x Healthcare 14.0% © @ Consumer ° CS 2x Industrials Energy 12.0x fe) © Transport
Slide 31: Gold Equity Valuations Remain The Lowest In Years
Gold Equity Valuations Remain The Lowest In 25 Years Tribeca Global Natural Resources Gold Price vs GDX Index 2300 50 s00 | ld 45 —cox >riv00 40 CS 1700 a je) °° 1500 25 Y 1300 20 YW) 1100 15 S 00 10 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Gold Price Discounted by the Market @ 0% Discount Gold
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Slide 33: Tribeca Portfolio Provides Risk Controlled Exposure to Structural Themes
Tribeca Portfolio Provides Risk Controlled Exposure to Structural Themes ribeca Global Natural Resources Tribeca portfolio provides investors with diversified & risk-controlled exposure to structural themes compared to indices and single sector names. > S&P GSCI Index Percentage = Sector Weights (20
Slide 34: Anglo American (AAL:LON)
Anglo American (AAL:LON) Diversified ANGLO AMERICAN Position Type Fundamental One of the world’s largest diversified miners Portfolio of tier-one copper assets in Los Bronces, Quellaveco and Collahuasi deliver ~550ktpa with significant organic growth potential Additional leverage to iron ore, met co
Slide 35: Newmont Corporation (NEM:NYSE)
Newmont Corporation (NEM:NYSE) Newmont. Position Type Fundamental Precious Metals Largest gold miner in the world Industry-leading portfolio of globally diversified tier one assets, several of which individually contribute >400kozpa Materially underperformed both gold and broader gold miner equities
Slide 36: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC:ASX)
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC:ASX) ta > « ~ Rare Earths Position Type Fundamental Sector Battery Metals * Only significant rare earth producer outside of China * Sells neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) oxide which is a key input for the most common magnets (NdFeB) used in electric vehicle drivetrain motors
Slide 37: Teck Resources (TECK:TSX)
Teck Resources (TECK:TSX) Tribeca Global Natural Resources Base Metals Potential Annual Copper Equivalent Production Growth (kt) Position Ty Fundamental Near Term (2023-2028) ‘Medium Term (2029-2033) Future Potential (2034+) Schott Creek esabo (100%) Future QB ° _ Expansion § (100% a. Teck + Leading
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Slide 41: Appendix: Investment Universe
Appendix: Investment Universe ribeca Global Natural Resources A flexible approach enables allocation to sectors presenting the best risk-reward opportunities. Clean Energy & Transition Fuels Metals & Mining Soft Commodities Si & Gas Base Metals Crops DBoranivm Bulks Agriculture a a) —-Hydrogen 4, Sp
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Slide 44: Appendix: Key Personnel
Appendix: Key Personnel lribeca Global Natural Resources Ben Cleary Investment Team Portfolio Manager Ben is the Portfolio Manager for the Tribeca For personal use only Global Natural Resources Fund. He is the Investment Manager Todd Warren Michael Orphanides Guy Keller Haydn Smith Ted Coupland of A
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