Alpek, S.a.b. De C.v. Class A · BMV:ALPEK/A
Alpek, S.a.b. De C.v. Class A — Alpek Sab De Cv Ord — Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation
23 slides from Alpek, S.a.b. De C.v. Class A's earnings presentation, Apr 20, 2021
Slide 1: First Quarter 2021 Earnings Webcast
FIRST QUARTER 2021 EARNINGS WEBCAST
Slide 2: Today's Speakers
Today’s Speakers José de Jesús Valdez José Carlos Pons Alejandro Elizondo CEO CFO IRO 2
Slide 3: Topics for Today's Webcast
Topics for Today’s Webcast I. Financial Performance II. Alpek 2031 Bond III. Guidance 3
Slide 4: Integrated PET Margins
Integrated PET Margins Margins increased by 36% QoQ due to strong demand US$/Ton Asian Margins (Px / MEG to PET) 600 China 500 400 382 +36% 370 324 330 304 310 300 277 275 266 214 250 242 227 223 260 227 214 164 200 227 249 PET 208 192 196 145 172 175 165 159 100 155 140 122 110 69 62 64 73 82 78 83
Slide 5: Texas Polar Vortex
Texas Polar Vortex Operations • USGC producers impacted by lack of Power, Natural Gas and/or Feedstocks – • All Alpek sites continued operating as normal • Producers of feedstocks (Ethylene, PGP, MEG, Styrene) & finished goods (NG, PP, EPS) offline Demand • Demand continued to be high, drawing = inv
Slide 6: 1Q21 Financial Highlights
1Q21 Financial Highlights • Record high overall volume for any first quarter of 1.2 million tons (+4% YoY) on track with Guidance • Highest quarterly Reported EBITDA ever of US$324 million excluding Badwill effect and/or asset sales (Cogen) • Strong performance continued in 1Q21 with Comparable EBIT
Slide 7: Volume Evolution
Volume Evolution Alpek Sales Volume (KTon) +4% 1,260 1,248 1,230 1,184 1,109 234 256 234 P&C • PET volume YoY increase largely 217 176 due to resilience of strong post- COVID-19 demand • P&C volume increased YoY from acquisition of NOVA’s Expandable Styrenics business 967 1,026 992 996 Polyester (fl
Slide 8: Feedstock Costs
Feedstock Costs Crude Oil and Paraxylene NA Propylene Contract Price NA Px Brent Contract +77% US$/Bbl US$/Ton cpp 80 1,400 80 Crude Oil (Brent) Px 73 • Crude oil price increased 36% as +36% 70 1,165 1,200 global economy continues to 1,077 +30% 60 recover, OPEC production quotas enforced, and demand
Slide 9: EBITDA Breakdown
EBITDA Breakdown 1Q21 EBITDA (US$M) 324 17 Others 63 • Comparable EBITDA of US$203M (+35% QoQ) in 1Q21 +35% 123 P&C 58 203 • Polyester Comp. EBITDA of 17 US$89M (+10% QoQ) from strong margins & volume 147 151 3 4 97 • P&C Comp. EBITDA of US$97M 50 66 (+48% QoQ) from higher PP 184 Polyester margins d
Slide 10: Free Cash Flow Generation
Free Cash Flow Generation US$M 23 2 1,219 1,185 324 30 44 67 192 • NWC of -US$192M due to feedstock prices increase caused by crude oil (Px) & polar vortex (Propylene) • Financial expenses of -US$67M due to one-time tender cost of Alpek’s 2022 Bond totaling -US$42M • FCF of -US$9M in 1Q21 as strong
Slide 11: Net Debt & Leverage
Net Debt & Leverage Net Debt (US$M) LTM EBITDA (US$M) Net Debt/EBITDA (Times) 1,436 1,428 2.0 +3% 789 2.0 2.0 1,330 769 1.9 1.9 1,235 1,185 1,219 701 1.7 657 624 601 850 821 2.1 778 1.9 735 719 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 565 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1
Slide 12: Alpek 2031 Bond Emission
Alpek 2031 Bond Emission Principal Amount US$600M Maturity Feb. 2031 (10 Years) Coupon 3.25% (-1.00% vs.’29 Bond) Spread 200bps (-55bps vs. ’29 Bond) US 10 Yr T. 1.28% (vs. ~1.68% on April 1) Order Book US$5.4B (9.0x Over-subscribed) Strong participation from Other Notes ESG-dedicated funds 12
Slide 13: Revised 2021 Guidance & Key Assumptions
Revised 2021 Guidance & Key Assumptions Revised ‘21 Previous ‘21 Change 2020 Guidance Guidance (% vs. ‘20) Crude Oil US$/Bbl 63 48 42 48 Market Asia PTA/PET Margin US$/Ton 285 245 269 6 MXN / USD (Avg.) MXN 21.1 21.1 21.5 (2) Reported EBITDA US$M 750 561 565 33 Financials Comparable EBITDA1 US$M 675
Slide 14: Q&A
Q&A José de Jesús Valdez José Carlos Pons CEO CFO 14
Slide 15: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 16: EBITDA Evolution
EBITDA Evolution EBITDA (US$M) 35% 324 • 1Q21 Comparable EBITDA of US$203M (+35% QoQ) • Increase largely due to better polyester margins, solid EPS 203 201 performance and one-time 179 benefits to PP margins & natural 147 149 154 151 gas commercialization from polar vortex 111 • Reported EBITDA of U
Slide 17: Breakdown of Extraordinary Effects
Breakdown of Extraordinary Effects 2021 2020 Delta M dls 1Q 1Q 4Q 1Q 4Q Reported EBITDA 324 111 201 214 123 Inventory Adjustment (63) 17 (9) (80) (54) Carry-Forward Effect (58) 20 (9) (78) (49) Others - - (33) - 33 Comparable EBITDA 203 147 151 56 52 17
Slide 18: Relevant References: Crude Oil
Relevant References: Crude Oil Price increased during 1Q21 as quotas met & demand for refined products rose US$/Bbl Brent Crude Oil Price 120 99 100 80 71 64 61 60 52 54 44 42 40 20 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 18
Slide 19: Relevant References: Paraxylene
Relevant References: Paraxylene Px prices increased by 30% in line with Crude Oil price (+36%) US$/Ton NA Px Contract Price 2,000 1,708 1,635 1,641 1,500 1,382 1,174 1,165 1,077 992 954 955 1,000 937 891 876 876 658 685 590 500 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 201
Slide 20: Relevant References: Propylene & Polypropylene
Relevant References: Propylene & Polypropylene Increase in both PGP contract prices and PP margins due to polar vortex NA Propylene Contract Price (PGP) NA Polypropylene Margin (PP to PGP) cpp cpp 80 76 35 73 32 71 70 69 30 60 27 60 54 25 24 22 22 50 21 45 19 41 20 39 37 17 40 15 16 34 35 15 31 15 1
Slide 21: For Additional Information
For Additional Information Email: IR@alpek.com / Phone: +52 (818) 748-1146 Alejandro • 10 Years at Alfa/Alpek Elizondo • Previously held roles as Director of Logistics & Procurement at Indelpro, Director of Energy Markets at IRO Alfa, and Project Leader at The Boston Consulting Group • BS in Industr
Slide 22: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, “forward-looking statements”. By their nature, forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The future results of Alpek
Slide 23: First Quarter 2021 Earnings Webcast
FIRST QUARTER 2021 EARNINGS WEBCAST