Mol Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A · BET:MOL
Mol Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A — MOL Group — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation
43 slides from Mol Hungarian Oil & Gas Plc Class A's earnings presentation, Nov 8, 2024
Slide 1: Third Quarter 2024 Results
THIRD QUARTER 2024 RESULTS 8 NOVEMBER 2024
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER "THIS PRESENTATION AND THE ASSOCIATED SLIDES AND DISCUSSION CONTAIN FORWARD -LOOKING STATEMENTS. THESE STATEMENTS ARE NATURALLY SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGES IN CIRCUMSTANCES. THOSE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS MAY INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO, THOSE REGARDING CAPITAL EMPLOYED, CAPI
Slide 3: Highlights of the Quarter
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER
Slide 4: 2024 Financial Guidance Reiterated
2024 FINANCIAL GUIDANCE REITERATED E&P PRODUCTION GUIDANCE RAISED, CRUDE PROCESSING GUIDANCE LOWERED Q1-Q3 2023 Q1-Q3 2024 2024 RESULTS RESULTS GUIDANCE GROUP PROFIT BEFORE USD 1,470 MN USD 1,419 MN ~USD 1.6 BN TAX 1 GROUP CLEAN CCS USD 2,101 MN USD 2,391 MN ~USD 3.0 BN EBITDA OIL & GAS 90.0 MBOEPD
Slide 5: Q3 2024 Clean CCS EBITDA at USD 847 mn
Q3 2024 CLEAN CCS EBITDA AT USD 847 MN RESILIENT RESULTS DELIVERY AMIDST MACRO-LED DOWNSTREAM UNDERPERFORMANCE FINANCIALS MOL Group profit before tax down by 24% year-on-year at USD 503 mn in Q3 but on track to meet annual guidance with USD 1,419 mn YTD Clean CCS EBITDA retreated by 13% YoY to USD 8
Slide 6: TRIR Meets Guidance
TRIR MEETS GUIDANCE WITH IMPROVEMENT ON YOY RESULTS TOTAL RECORDABLE INJURY RATE (TRIR) TRIR RESULTS -9% -4% TRIR slightly below the tolerable limit of 1.3 set for 2024 Improvement achieved compared to 2023 both in Q3 (-9%) and 1.4 Q1-Q3 (-4%) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 ESG KPI-LINKED CREDIT FACILITY 0.9 0.8 M
Slide 7: Key Group Quarterly Financials
KEY GROUP QUARTERLY FINANCIALS
Slide 8: EBITDA at USD 847 mn in Q3 2024
EBITDA AT USD 847 MN IN Q3 2024 RESILIENT RESULTS DELIVERY IN WORSENING MACRO ENVIRONMENT SEGMENT CLEAN CCS EBITDA (USD mn) COMMENTS -13% +3% Upstream 976 992 826 Stable QoQ performance with production at high levels 847 195 Downstream 283 Downstream pulled down by macro and lower volumes due to 718
Slide 9: Capex Driven by Downstream Turnarounds
CAPEX DRIVEN BY DOWNSTREAM TURNAROUNDS TRANFORMATION PROJECTS FOCUSED PETCHEM INVESTMENTS AND RIJEKA DCU TOTAL GROUP CAPEX (USD mn) TOTAL GROUP CAPEX (USD mn) +18% +12% +18% +12% 614 605 614 605 0 413 337 413 350 370 12 350 370 12 320 1 81 486 320 1 14 76 14 3 88 222 341 141 191 197 266 233 335 51 4
Slide 10: Bottom Line Above USD 1 bn
BOTTOM LINE ABOVE USD 1 BN Q1-Q3 2024 EARNINGS (USD mn) 1 – BELOW THE EBITDA LINE ITEMS 2,391 8 0 DS 1,001 948 75 43 297 2,399 CS 587 81 1,451 1,419 1,122 1,042 US 824 Other 20 Clean CCS CCS EBITDA excl. Special items DD&A and Profit from Total finance Income from Profit Income tax Profit for Non-co
Slide 11: Net Financial Expense at Zero Level on Stronger HUF to USD
NET FINANCIAL EXPENSE AT ZERO LEVEL ON STRONGER HUF TO USD CCS effect, gain / loss (USD mn) Comments CCS modification negative in Q3 73 34 -18 Q3 2023 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 DD&A (USD mn) +11% +8% DD&A higher due to larger asset base in Consumer 306 316 341 Services and Circular Economy Services Q3 2023 Q2
Slide 12: Operating Cash Flow Reflecting Resilience
OPERATING CASH FLOW REFLECTING RESILIENCE DESPITE A RELEASE IN Q3, NET WORKING CAPITAL REMAINS A BURDEN ON YTD CASH FLOW OPERATING CASH FLOW FOR TOTAL OPERATION IN Q1-Q3 2024 (USD mn) 491 948 1,695 69 1,419 243 1,452 112 1,307 1,086 Profit before tax Profit before tax Profit before tax DD&A Income t
Slide 13: Balance Sheet Remains Strong in Q3
BALANCE SHEET REMAINS STRONG IN Q3 INDEBTEDNESS WELL BELOW TOLERANCE THRESHOLD OF 1X EBITDA NET DEBT TO EBITDA (x) GEARING (%) 2.0 30 27.3 25.2 1.61 25 1.5 20.6 1.31 19.6 19.4 20 18.6 18.1 17.5 0.97 14.2 15.0 1.0 15 14.0 0.82 0.82 12.0 0.74 11.4 0.65 0.65 0.64 0.65 0.59 10 0.5 0.41 0.30 5 0 2014 201
Slide 14: Downstream Q3 2024 Results
DOWNSTREAM Q3 2024 RESULTS
Slide 15: Downstream EBITDA Driven Lower to USD 300 mn in Q3 2024
DOWNSTREAM EBITDA DRIVEN LOWER TO USD 300 MN IN Q3 2024 PROFITABILITY HIT BY LOWER MARGINS AND TURNAROUND-HEAVY SUMMER QUARTERLY CLEAN CCS EBITDA (USD mn) TOTAL CRUDE PROCESSED (kt)1 TOTAL PRODUCT SALES (kt) -36% -27% -11% +7% -5% +7% 469 3,041 3,148 5,384 5,133 3,009 2,819 2,809 4,752 288 4,762 4,8
Slide 16: Refining Margin Down 45% QoQ
REFINING MARGIN DOWN 45% QOQ PETCHEM MARGIN RECOVERY STILL NOT HAPPENING REFINING MARGIN (USD/bbl) COMMENTS Brent-based MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) 18 16.6 Brent-based refining margins turned downwards as crack spreads Brent-based Complex refinery margin (MOL+Slovnaft) (USD/bbl) 16 deteriora
Slide 17: EBITDA Hit by Lower Volumes and Refinery Margin Downturn
EBITDA HIT BY LOWER VOLUMES AND REFINERY MARGIN DOWNTURN PETCHEM CONTRIBUTED POSITIVELY IN YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISONS DOWNSTREAM CLEAN CCS EBITDA YoY, Q3 2024 VS. Q3 2023 (USD mn) COMMENTS 469 Includes: R&M price & margin contribution significantly negative due CO2 quota tax (USD +48 mn) to lower refi
Slide 18: Consumer Services Q3 2024 Results
CONSUMER SERVICES Q3 2024 RESULTS
Slide 19: Q3 EBITDA Flat YoY with Positive Underlying Performance
Q3 EBITDA FLAT YOY WITH POSITIVE UNDERLYING PERFORMANCE ONE-OFF ITEMS IN BASE PERIOD MASK HEALTHY YOY PERFORMANCE QUARTERLY EBITDA (USD mn) EBITDA YoY, Q3 2024 VS. Q3 2023 (USD mn) 0% 0% 14 7 250 17 24 249 249 1 250 249 194 175 144 144 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 EBITDA Fuel volu
Slide 20: Fuel Volume Dynamics Driven by Post-Transaction Rightsizing of Network
FUEL VOLUME DYNAMICS DRIVEN BY POST-TRANSACTION RIGHTSIZING OF NETWORK RISING THROUGHPUT REFLECTS STRONG NETWORK FFECTS TOTAL VOLUMES SOLD (mn litres) FUEL THROUGHPUT/SITE1 (mn litres) -3% 1% 4Y CAGR: +5.2% 2 306 2 243 1.01 1.03 1.05 1 969 1 991 2 057 0.93 1 817 0.85 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024
Slide 21: Non-Fuel Margin Continues to Trend Upwards
NON-FUEL MARGIN CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARDS SUPPORTED BY BETTER FRESH CORNER PENETRATION AND SHIFT TOWADS HIGHER MARGIN PRODUCTS NON-FUEL MARGIN (USD MN) 1 TOTAL NON-FUEL TURNOVER (USD MN) 1 +9% +1% 173 546 554 159 149 496 436 456 445 123 128 119 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q2 202
Slide 22: MOL Retail Network Expanded by Over a Fifth in 5 Years
MOL RETAIL NETWORK EXPANDED BY OVER A FIFTH IN 5 YEARS CONSIDERABLE PENETRATION IN CEE 10 ACHIEVED VIA CAUTIOUS BUT ENERGETIC EXPANSION PACE EVOLUTION OF MOL GROUP NETWORK SIZE 1 COMMENTS MOL expanded its fuel station network Acquisition in Poland Acquisition in Slovenia Net + 312 SeS Net of +81 SeS
Slide 23: Upstream Q3 2024 Results
UPSTREAM Q3 2024 RESULTS
Slide 24: Q3 EBITDA Delivery Close to Q2 Level at USD 279mn
Q3 EBITDA DELIVERY CLOSE TO Q2 LEVEL AT USD 279MN HEALTHY UNDERLYING FINANCIALS MITIGATED BY ACG CARGO TIMING EFFECT QUARTERLY EBITDA (excl. special items) (USD mn) OIL PRICES 140 113.9 134.0 +43% -2% 102.4 120 107.5 100.8 88.9 100 81.8 81.2 74.4 86.8 84.3 83.2 85.0 80.3 103.9 80 97.1 77.8 78.1 81.4
Slide 25: Unit Free Cash Flow at 24 USD/boe in Q3 2024
UNIT FREE CASH FLOW AT 24 USD/BBL IN Q3 2024 SIMPLIFIED FCF REALIZATION CLOSE TO USD 200 MN QUARTERLY PRICE REALIZATION, EBITDA, SFCF (USD/boe) 90 87 84 85 83 80 80 78 70 62 63 62 60 67 50 49 67 40 78 Brent 34 37 35 30 Realised HC price 28 20 42 Unit EBITDA 15 27 10 24 24 15 Unit FCF* 0 3 Q2 2023 Q3
Slide 26: Stable EBITDA Delivery
STABLE EBITDA DELIVERY UPSTREAM EBITDA QoQ, Q2 2024 VS. Q3 2024 (USD mn) COMMENTS 1 17 -25 Stable EBITDA on QoQ basis -5 -3 13 -4 Prices: USD 17 mn positive effect due to 6% lower Brent and 23% higher TTF gas prices compared to base period 283 284 283 279 Volumes: Although entitlement production inc
Slide 27: Production Trends Allow for Higher Annual Guidance
PRODUCTION TRENDS ALLOW FOR HIGHER ANNUAL GUIDANCE MOL CONTINUES TO ACHIEVE SUCCESS IN REALIZING PRODUCTION GAINS ON MATURE ASSET BASE PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY (mboepd) COMMENTS Production totalling 96.2 mboepd in Q3 2024, up 4.1 96.2 96.5 mboepd QoQ: 91.5 92.3 92.1 87.4 Associated companies: +2.5 mboe
Slide 28: Decrease in Group Unit Opex YoY
DECREASE IN GROUP UNIT OPEX YOY CAPEX DOWN MAINLY DUE TO GROUP DELAYS UNIT OPEX (USD/boe) UNIT OPEX YTD (USD/boe) -9% GROUP FULLY CONSOLIDATED 7.5 (INCL. JVS/ASSOC.) SUBS. 7.2 7.0 -6% 6.6 -3% 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.5 6.6 5.5 5.3 6.0 5.8 6.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.5
Slide 29: Circular Economy Services Q3 2024 Results
CIRCULAR ECONOMY SERVICES Q3 2024 RESULTS
Slide 30: CES EBITDA Shows Improvement in Q3
CES EBITDA SHOWS IMPROVEMENT IN Q3 DEPOSIT REFUND SCHEME TO FULL SPEED IN Q3, SEGMENT EXTENDED BY TWO ACQUISITIONS QUARTERLY EBITDA (USD mn) COMMENTS Q3 EBITDA at USD 16 mn, up from Q2, due to no 2023-related EPR corrections, and an improvement in consolidated results of MOHU 20 18 Budapest – segmen
Slide 31: Supporting Slides
SUPPORTING SLIDES
Slide 32: 2024 YTD SFCF Above USD 1.3 bn
2024 YTD SFCF ABOVE USD 1.3 BN SIMPLIFIED FCF1 (USD mn) -30% -2% 639 108 457 446 208 328 402 198 386 218 78 134 199 210 154 0 67 6 49 42 -33 -63 -88 -138 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 US DS CS CES GM C&O (incl. intersegment) (1) Simplified Free Cash Flow = Clean CCS EBITDA – total
Slide 33: Working Interest Based Production Slightly Increased QoQ
WORKING INTEREST BASED PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY INCREASED QOQ QUARTERLY WORKING INTEREST PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY1 (mboepd) 129.1 121.8 122.8 122.9 117.5 117.5 20.3 Associated 16.0 17.3 17.2 companies* 15.7 17.0 3.9 Other 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.2 3.8 4.8 8.9 KRI 0.1 6.4 8.1 5.9 2.8 6.0 6.1 5.3 Pakistan 5.9 5.1 Azerb
Slide 34: Upstream: Operational Update (1)
UPSTREAM: OPERATIONAL UPDATE (1) Hungary Croatia EXPLORATION EXPLORATION Vecsés-1 well has started production Block Sava-07: 4 exploration wells were drilled, evaluation is ongoing Shallow gas program has continued Block DR-03: Obradovci-5 expl. well is finished, V. Rastovac-2 Du expl. well site FIE
Slide 35: Upstream: Operational Update (2)
UPSTREAM: OPERATIONAL UPDATE (2) Pakistan Russia EXPLORATION 2024 well workover program: 6 workovers performed TAL block (Operated): Razgir-1 well test completed with successful gas Construction work program: pipeline (re)construction and modernization of discovery oil treatment plant is in progress
Slide 36: Upstream Capex by Region and by Type in Q1-Q3 2024
UPSTREAM CAPEX BY REGION AND BY TYPE IN Q1-Q3 2024 ORGANIC CAPEX BY REGION AND BY TYPE (USD mn) HUN CRO KRI PAK AZE OTHER Total – Q1-Q3 2024 Total – Q1-Q3 2023 EXP 21.5 11.3 0.0 1.9 3.4 0.1 38.2 27.4 DEV 28.8 24.2 (0.1) 2.5 86.9 6.4 148.7 184.3 Other 8.1 28.3 2.9 0.3 2.3 (0.1) 41.8 41.0 Total – Q1-Q
Slide 37: Gas Midstream: Key Financials
GAS MIDSTREAM: KEY FINANCIALS EBITDA excl. spec. items (USD mn) CAPEX (USD mn) -22% +3% 19 79 74 15 60 57 52 55 7 6 5 1 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 KEY FINANCIALS (USD mn) COMMENTS Q3 2024 Q3 2023 YoY % Q1-Q3 2024 Q1-Q3 2023 YoY % E
Slide 38: Sustainability Indicators
SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS CO2 under ETS (mn t) HC Spill above 1bbl (m3) Tier1 PSE -10% = 100 -93% 2.0 71.81 4 1.47 1.52 1.40 1.33 1.32 1.5 3 3 3 1.0 50 2 22.60 1 1 16.43 17.24 0.5 5.35 1 0 0 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 20
Slide 39: Macro Indicators
MACRO INDICATORS BRENT (USD/bbl) MOL REFINERY MARGIN* (USD/bbl) HUF/USD (Q avg.) 120 20 450 Brent-based MOL Group 100 15 400 Brent-based Complex (MOL + Slovnaft) 80 350 10 60 300 40 5 250 20 0 200 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022 2022 202
Slide 40: Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF PROFIT OR LOSS YoY Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Income Statement (HUF million) Q1-Q3 2024 Q1-Q3 2023 Ch % Ch % 2,372,642 2,464,123 2,567,862 (4) Net sales 6,882,973 6,575,226 5 10,912 11,240 (10,977) n.a. Other operating income 51,155 38,623 32 2,383,554 2,475,363 2,556,885 (3)
Slide 41: Consolidated Statement of Financial Position
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION Balance Sheet (HUF million) 30 Sep 2024 31 Dec 2023 Ch % Balance Sheet (HUF million) 30 Sep 2024 31 Dec 2023 Ch % Assets Equity and Liabilities Non-current assets Equity Property, plant and equipment 4,266,886 3,997,801 7 Share capital 79,443 79,192 0 Inv
Slide 42: Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOW YoY Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Cash Flow (HUF million) Q1-Q3 2024 Q1-Q3 2023 Ch % Ch % 193,925 180,738 234,051 (23) Profit / (loss) before tax for continuing operation 512,574 521,468 (2) (41,567) 0 1,426 (100) Profit / (loss) before tax for discontinued operation (4
Slide 43: External Parameters
EXTERNAL PARAMETERS YoY Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Macro figures (average) Q1-Q3 2024 Q1-Q3 2023 Ch % Ch % 85.0 80.3 86.7 (7) Brent dated (USD/bbl) 82.8 82.1 1 (3.5) (3.4) (5.9) (42) Urals-Brent spread (USD/bbl, DAP India Urals quotation)(11) (3.4) (11.5) (70) 31.7 35.7 33.7 6 TTF gas price (EUR/MWh) 3