Moody's Corporation · NYSE:MCO
Moody's — Scenario Studio Kitchen Webinar (July 2021)
12 slides from Moody's's conference presentation, Jul 29, 2021
Slide 1: Scenario Studio: Cooking Up a Debt Crisis
Scenario Studio: Cooking Up a Debt Crisis Brendan LaCerda, Senior Economist 7/29/2021 Jesse Rogers, Economist
Slide 2: Speakers
Speakers Brendan LaCerda is an associate director and senior economist with Moody’s Analytics. Brendan serves as the lead analyst for the Canadian economic forecast. His research is primarily focused on international macroeconomics, healthcare and fiscal policy. Jesse Rogers is an economist at Moody
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda 1) Motivation – growing focus on government debt 2) Global model framework and key levers 3) Live demo: Creating a debt crisis in Scenario Studio 4) Taking it Global: Overview of our EM Debt Crisis Scenario Scenario Studio: Cooking Up a Debt Crisis 3
Slide 4: Global Debt Burdens to Budge Little
Global Debt Burdens to Budge Little General government debt, % of GDP 110 100 2018 2019 2020 2021 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 LatAm APAC Europe Mideast/Africa U.S. Sources: Moody’s Analytics Scenario Studio: Cooking Up a Debt Crisis 4
Slide 5: Model Framework: Moody's Analytics Global Model
Model Framework: Moody’s Analytics Global Model Scenario Studio: Cooking Up a Debt Crisis 5
Slide 6: Debt Crisis Key Levers
Debt Crisis Key Levers 1) Expectations • Growth, Inflation, Potential Productivity 2) Debt/Recession Dynamics • Recession and Financial Crisis Dummy Variables 3) Financial Markets: • Stock Prices, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates 4) Government Finances • Revenues, Expenditures, Government Debt 5) Glob
Slide 7: Debt Crisis Demo: Brazil
Debt Crisis Demo: Brazil Three Main Shocks and Corresponding Scenario Studio Variables 1) Inflation: FEINFLAT_IBRA, FCPI_IBRA 2) Expectations/Sentiment: FEGROW_IBRA, DUM_RECESS_IBRA 3) Fiscal: FGGTAXR_I_IBRA, FG$_IBRA Scenario Studio: Cooking Up a Debt Crisis 7
Slide 8: Emerging Market Debt Crisis Scenario: Main Results
Emerging Market Debt Crisis Scenario: Main Results Scenario Studio: Cooking Up a Debt Crisis 8
Slide 9: Emerging Market Debt Crisis Scenario: Main Results
Emerging Market Debt Crisis Scenario: Main Results Scenario Studio: Cooking Up a Debt Crisis 9
Slide 10: Questions? Contact us at: help@economy.com
Questions? Contact us at: help@economy.com
Slide 11: Contact Us: Our Offices - Economics & Business Analytics
Contact Us: Our Offices - Economics & Business Analytics West Chester, EBA-HQ London Prague Singapore +1.610.235.5299 +44.20.7772.5454 +420.23.474.7500 +65.6511.4400 121 North Walnut Street, Suite 500 One Canada Square Pernerova 691/42 6 Shenton Way West Chester PA 19380 Canary Wharf 186 00 Prague 8
Slide 12: Scenario Studio: Cooking Up a Debt Crisis
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