78 slides from Amundi MSCI World Ex EMU UCITS ETF FCP Parts -Acc-'s conference presentation, Jun 4, 2025
Slide 1: Fixed Income in Focus: Navigating the US-Europe Divergence
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Slide 2: Welcome
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Slide 3: Speakers
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Slide 4: Introduction
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Slide 5: Introduction & ETF Flows
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Slide 6: A global champion, at the heart of Europe
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Slide 7: A key player in fixed income
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Slide 8: The four core features of our fixed income expertise
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Slide 9: ETF European Market: Flows Analysis
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Slide 10: 2025 (YTD): Cumulated Flows vs Previous Years (UCITS ETFs)
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Slide 11: 2025: Fixed Income ETFs (UCITS)
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Slide 12: 2025 (YTD): Equity and Fixed Income Top Categories
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Slide 13: Flow Momentum: Euro Fixed Income (UCITS ETFs)
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Slide 14: Flow Momentum: USD Fixed Income (UCITS ETFs)
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Slide 15: JP Morgan: Cross asset strategy
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Slide 16: Global Markets Strategy: Cross asset strategy
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Slide 17: What we learned so far in 2025?
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Slide 18: Key drivers
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Slide 19: JPM View: Shifting Horizons
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Slide 20: Base case: 40% probability of US recession
Information reputed exact as of the date mentioned above. Information reputed exact as at 04/06/2025. Reproduction prohibited Our base case without assumesthe that written theconsent currentofexpansion Amundi. will be challenged in 2025, with performance gaps across countries and 40% Reproduction pr
Slide 21: The ECB direction is still downward with a terminal rate of 1.75%
Information reputed exact as of the date mentioned above. Information reputed exact as at 04/06/2025. Reproduction prohibited without the written consent of Amundi. Reproduction prohibited without the written consent of Amundi. The ECB direction is still downward with a terminal rate of 1.75% Euro a
Slide 22: US resilience despite softer start, policy risks
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Slide 23: Revision of recession probability and UST forecasts
Information reputed exact as of the date mentioned above. Information reputed exact as at 04/06/2025. Reproduction prohibited The revision of without the written our recession consent ofhas probability Amundi. triggered an upwards revision to 10Y UST with the Fed now expected to cut only Reproductio
Slide 24: Implied recession probability priced in equities
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Slide 25: Investors running away from US assets?
Information reputed exact as of the date mentioned above. Information reputed exact as at 04/06/2025. Reproduction prohibited without How frequently the run investors written consent away fromofUS Amundi. assets? Over the past 25 years we identified three instances of simultaneous negative Reproduct
Slide 26: De-dollarization concerns and foreign ownership of US assets
Information reputed exact as of the date mentioned above. Information reputed about Concerns exact asde-dollarization at 04/06/2025. have grown due to $16.5tn in foreign held US equities and $14.5tn in US bonds; We Reproduction prohibited anticipate without modest the written portfolio consent of Am
Slide 27: US exceptionalism on AI
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Slide 28: Core recommendations by asset class
Information reputed exact as of the date mentioned above. Information reputed exact as at 04/06/2025. Reproduction prohibited without the written consent of Amundi. Reproduction prohibited without the written consent of Amundi. Shifting Horizons: From recession concerns to managing economic and US p
Slide 29: Market pricing of Fed and ECB cuts vs JPM forecast
Information reputed exact as of the date mentioned above. Information reputed exact as at 04/06/2025. Reproduction prohibited The market without is pricing the written ~43bp consent and ~55bp of for cuts Amundi. the Fed and ECB policy rates by December 2025 while JPM forecast 25bp and 50bp of cuts R
Slide 30: Revised Treasury yield forecasts
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Slide 31: Neutral on duration, 2s/5s steepener
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Slide 32: Yield curve sensitive to fiscal policy
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Slide 33: Term premium and long-end yields
Information reputed exact as of the date mentioned above. Information reputed exact as at 04/06/2025. Reproduction prohibited without the written consent of Amundi. Reproduction prohibited without the written consent of Amundi. Though term premium is now in line with averages observed in the decade
Slide 34: Treasury funding needs and investor positioning
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Slide 35: 20% tariff on EU imports and ReArm Europe
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Slide 36: Russia/Ukraine ceasefire scenarios
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Slide 37: German fiscal package and issuance forecast
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Slide 38: EGB supply vs ECB flow dynamics
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Slide 39: Euro area: maintain strategic OW duration
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Slide 40: Euro area: neutral on intra-EMU spreads
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Slide 41: Global DM rates 2025 forecast
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Slide 42: Strategic weaker-dollar call
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Slide 43: US deficits and implications for USD
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Slide 44: EUR: Bullish with sights on 1.20 by year-end
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Slide 45: EUR: near-term risks amid valuation overshoot
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Slide 46: JPY: Remain bearish USD/JPY
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Slide 47: CNY: Neutralising CNH shorts
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Slide 48: FX forecast: bearish USD
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Slide 49: Disclosures
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Slide 50: Disclosures
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Slide 51: Disclosures
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Slide 52: Disclosures
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Slide 53: Disclosures
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Slide 54: Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices
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Slide 55: Innovative solutions for changing markets
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Slide 56: Indexing Trends
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Slide 57: Principles of Index Design and Indexing Characteristics
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Slide 58: Trends in EMEA Fixed Income ETFs
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Slide 59: Bloomberg Indices as a Leader in Fixed Income
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Slide 60: Fixed Income Indices at Bloomberg
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Slide 61: Broad Coverage Across Global Fixed Income Markets
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Slide 62: An Index of Choice for ETFs
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Slide 63: Active and Passive Investing in Fixed Income
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Slide 64: Passive and Active in Fixed Income
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Slide 65: Fund Analysis by Category
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Slide 66: EUR Corporate Bond Active Funds Return Distribution
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Slide 67: Disclaimer
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Slide 68: ETF Implementation Ideas
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Slide 69: Positioning your fixed income portfolio in the economic cycle
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Slide 70: No matter the environment, we have a fixed income ETF for you
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Slide 71: Government bonds ETF range
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Slide 72: Corporate bonds ETF range
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Slide 73: Thank you!
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Slide 74: Example of a SRRI
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Slide 75: Amundi ETF Main Risks
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Slide 76: Disclaimer: Knowing your risk
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Slide 77: Disclaimer
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Slide 78: Disclaimer
Information reputed exact as of the date mentioned above. Information reputed exact as at 04/06/2025. Reproduction prohibited without the written consent of Amundi. Reproduction prohibited without the written consent of Amundi. − DISCLAIMER AMUNDI PHYSICAL GOLD ETC (the “ETC”) is a series of debt se