Origin Energy Limited · ASX:ORG
Origin Energy — Origin Energy Ltd Ord — Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation
71 slides from Origin Energy's earnings presentation, Feb 14, 2025
Slide 1: Origin Energy 2025 Half Year Results
Origin Energy 2025 Half Year Results Year ended 31 December 2024 Frank Calabria, CEO & Tony Lucas, CFO 13 February 2025
Slide 2: Outline
Outline 1. Introduction - Frank Calabria 2. Financial Review - Tony Lucas 3. Operational Review - Frank Calabria 4. Outlook & Wrap Up - Frank Calabria 2 13 February 2025 • 2025 Half Year Results Announcement
Slide 3: Introduction
Introduction Frank Calabria, CEO
Slide 4: Summary of Result
• Summary of Result − Energy Markets: Earnings lower in line with guidance expectations − APLNG: Earnings up 14% with higher realised prices and increased sales volumes − LNG trading: Underlying EBITDA up 270% at $285 million − Octopus: Earnings growth in UK Retail offset by investment to scale Ener
Slide 5: Financial highlights
Financial highlights Statutory Profit Underlying Profit Underlying EBITDA $1,017 $924 $1,926 million million million Up from $995 million in HY24 Up from $747 million in HY24 Down from $1,995 million in HY24 Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted Origin ROCE (pre-tax)2 Interim Dividend Underlying EBITDA 1 1.5
Slide 6: As the NEM transitions to renewables, dispatchable capacity increases in value
As the NEM transitions to renewables, dispatchable capacity increases in value NEM capacity growth as coal gradually phases out (AEMO Step Change scenario) 250 • The energy transition will be a multi decade challenge to 200 achieve net zero by 2050 whilst meeting growing demand >2.5x • Substantial i
Slide 7: Policies must focus on energy security as the markets transition to net zero
Policies must focus on energy security as the markets transition to net zero NEM design needs to be fit for purpose Addressing urgent gas supply challenge • A capacity mechanism including gas is critical to support • Significant risk of shortfalls in the coming years given both reliability and clima
Slide 8: Leading the energy transition through differentiated assets and capabilities
Leading the energy transition through differentiated assets and capabilities Customer Energy supply Energy resource Octopus Leading customer position, Differentiated flexible portfolio, World class LNG asset Significant global growth trusted brand, world class diverse supply, development backed by s
Slide 9: Customer: Unrivalled customer solutions
Customer: Unrivalled customer solutions Home and Small Business (Retail) Large Business (Origin Zero) 4.7m >25k customer accounts sites • Strong brand with unrelenting focus on customer • Combining energy supply with a range of energy efficiency, electrification and distributed energy services • Wor
Slide 10: Energy Supply: Advantaged portfolio, accelerating renewables and storage
Energy Supply: Advantaged portfolio, accelerating renewables and storage Leading portfolio for firming Targeting 4-5 GW of renewables renewables and storage by 2030 • 3 GW gas fired generation • 1.7 GW of 2-4 hour battery development projects • 240 MW Shoalhaven pumped hydro plant underway (assets i
Slide 11: APLNG: World class asset making a valuable contribution to domestic market
APLNG: World class asset making a valuable contribution to domestic market >15,000 PJ ~25% reserves and resources1 of sales delivered to domestic market2 • World class CSG resource and LNG infrastructure • ~75PJ delivered to domestic market in HY25 • Underpinned by strong operating capability, low c
Slide 12: Octopus: UK Retail and Kraken continue to exceed expectations
Octopus: UK Retail and Kraken continue to exceed expectations >15m 62m Investing in the future energy customer accounts globally Kraken contracted customer accounts at Dec-24, up 22% in 12 months ecosystem • Now the largest energy retailer in UK • Global SaaS platform operationally • Investing in Lo
Slide 13: Financial Review
Financial Review Tony Lucas, CFO
Slide 14: Underlying Profit up $177 million to $924 million
Underlying Profit up $177 million to $924 million Movements in Underlying Profit ($m) 924 747 271 (35) (1) 25 (306) 156 67 HY24 EM EBITDA IG - Share of IG - Other Share of Corporate D&A Tax / other HY25 APLNG profit EBITDA Octopus EBITDA profit Growth in UK Lower Retail and Kraken Lower tax wholesal
Slide 15: Free cash flow reflects investment in growth projects and higher tax paid
Free cash flow reflects investment in growth projects and higher tax paid HY25 HY24 Change Underlying EBITDA, adj for non-cash items 1,005 1,183 (178) • Change in working capital driven by the unwind of Change in working capital (351) (791) 440 $400 million out of $600 million QLD government Futures
Slide 16: APLNG franked dividends of $612 million, $562 million net of Origin hedging
APLNG franked dividends of $612 million, $562 million net of Origin hedging APLNG1 distribution, net of Origin hedging ($m) 1,490 1,430 • HY25 cash dividends of $612 million to Origin in 1,367 the form of fully franked dividends 1,254 — $562 million cash net of Origin hedging APLNG 100% 887 710 933
Slide 17: Net debt increased to $4 billion driven by growth capex and tax paid
Net debt increased to $4 billion driven by growth capex and tax paid Movements in Adjusted Net Debt ($m) 4,032 2 173 71 474 •1 Full year FY25 tax paid is expected to be ~$1.0 billion and then significantly lower 2,833 1 925 in FY26 (lagged impact of earnings and 705 (612) franked dividends from APLN
Slide 18: Dividend growth
Dividend growth Dividends (cps) • Shareholder distribution policy seeks to deliver sustainable distributions through the business cycle 27.5 • Interim FY25 dividend determined of 30cps, fully franked (up from 27.5 cps) − Reflects balance sheet strength and cash generation from two diversified busine
Slide 19: Strong balance sheet enabling investment in the energy transition
Strong balance sheet enabling investment in the energy transition Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted Underlying EBITDA1 4 • Current balance sheet strength to fund investment in the energy transition and provides flexibility and choices • Debt/EBITDA 1.5x (rolling 12 month basis), up from 1.0x at 30 June 2
Slide 20: Capital allocation framework in action
Capital allocation framework in action Utilising third party capital On balance sheet 1 2 • Retail ‘bolt-on’ acquisitions Recent transactions and commitments • Broadband growth • Strategically located battery sites 1 • ~500 MW Supernode battery offtake in QLD • Brownfield battery sites with attracti
Slide 21: Energy Markets EBITDA lower, in line with guidance
Energy Markets EBITDA lower, in line with guidance Movements in Underlying EBITDA ($m) (196) (80) (17) (13) • Lower Electricity gross profit: Higher coal costs and lower wholesale allowance in DMO/VDO reflecting the lagged impact of market prices from the prior year, partially offset by improvements
Slide 22: Integrated Gas EBITDA higher with increased volumes and LNG trading gains
Integrated Gas EBITDA higher with increased volumes and LNG trading gains Movements in Underlying EBITDA ($m) 7 20 20 149 (78) 132 Share of APLNG EBITDA up $94 million: • Higher LNG sales volumes and prices 1,251 • Higher domestic revenue from a strong short term domestic market 1,001 • Increased op
Slide 23: Share of Octopus Energy down with growth reinvested in Energy Services
Share of Octopus Energy down with growth reinvested in Energy Services Movements in Underlying EBITDA ($m) (2) 4 • UK Retail: 10% organic customer growth vs Dec-23, full period of Shell acquisition and lower REGO prices − Attracting >40% of market switches 31 (45) − >30% drop in acquisition costs in
Slide 24: Operational Review
Operational Review Frank Calabria, CEO
Slide 25: Energy Markets
Energy Markets of -, -
Slide 26: Retail has grown substantially in recent years and is well positioned
Retail has grown substantially in recent years and is well positioned Deal with Octopus CES acquisitions Set 2GW target Aggregator Acquisition Energy, began complete for VPP (Loop) acquisitions of SolarQuotes migrating OC Energy & Now at ~1.5 GW MyConnect & 1Bill customers to Kraken WINconnect 2020+
Slide 27: Customer: Relentless focus on continuous improvement through tech
Customer: Relentless focus on continuous improvement through tech Improving Customer Experience Operational efficiency embracing AI Product development Trust Pilot (Trust score out of 5 stars) # of messages sent 4.6 4.4 3.0 2.1 25k 4k 3.5k <1k reviews reviews reviews reviews Jul 23 Jan 25 Origin Com
Slide 28: Customer: Growing share and value
Customer: Growing share and value Growing customer base 6.7% lower churn to market Customer accounts (‘000) Monthly churn rate (%) 30% +3% CAGR 4,714 4,657 4,525 25% 4,459 4,266 20% 15% 10% Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 HY25 FY23 FY24 HY25 Electricity and gas 1 LPG Broa
Slide 29: Customer: Cost reduction initiatives on track for FY26 target
Customer: Cost reduction initiatives on track for FY26 target Energy Markets Cost to Serve $m 500 Run-rate costs expected to deliver further savings in H2 FY25 400 • Digital initiatives improving cash collections and 300 operational efficiencies (e.g credit decisioning engine) • AI functionality in
Slide 30: Customer: Accelerating growth beyond the core
Customer: Accelerating growth beyond the core Community Energy Services Broadband Partnerships Community Energy Services Gross Profit Customer accounts (‘000) Customer accounts (‘000) 168 100 500 152 474 464 457 442 124 413 96 400 74 81 78 70 71 68 50 300 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 FY23 FY24 FY25
Slide 31: Customer: Origin Zero – broad suite of services to corporate customers
Customer: Origin Zero – broad suite of services to corporate customers Growing number of strategic Broad suite of E-mobility customer accounts integrated energy services Large business customers on broader services # of EVs under management 25% 1,200 1,000 20% 800 15% 600 10% 400 5% 200 - - FY22 FY2
Slide 32: Energy Supply: Battery portfolio progressing in line with expectations
Energy Supply: Battery portfolio progressing in line with expectations Project Type Capacity Storage State Estimated Total (MW) (MWh) Commercial Capex Operation ($m) Date Eraring Stage 1 Build & own 460 1,770 NSW Q4 CY25 ~8501 (incl expansion) Eraring Stage 2 Build & own 240 1,030 NSW Q1 CY27 ~4501
Slide 33: Energy Supply: Portfolio able to adapt to different market conditions
Energy Supply: Portfolio able to adapt to different market conditions NSW oversupply day – 26 Dec 2024 NSW high demand day – 7 Nov 2024 Energy position for 11:30 – 12:00 Spot price during the day Energy position for 17:30 – 18:00 Spot price during the day MWh $/MWh MWh $/MWh 150 Contracts2 20,000 20
Slide 34: Electricity Gross Profit tracking in line with medium term target
Electricity Gross Profit tracking in line with medium term target Electricity prices Coal prices Electricity gross profit 250 NSW electricity forward price ($/MWh) A$/t 50 $/MWh 700 600 Target range 200 40 500 150 30 Average FY26 400 FY25 100 FY24 300 20 200 50 10 100 - - - Forward swap price Newcas
Slide 35: Gas margins in line with medium term target range
Gas margins in line with medium term target range Gas prices Gross Profit Contracted gas supply A$/GJ A$/GJ 200 PJ 70 8 60 6 150 50 40 Target range 4 100 30 20 2 50 10 - - - H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 Oct-23 Jul-23 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Apr-23 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 JKM-linked FY23 FY24 FY25
Slide 36: Integrated Gas
Integrated Gas of -, -
Slide 37: APLNG revenue up 13%, costs stable in HY25
APLNG revenue up 13%, costs stable in HY25 Commodity Prices Revenue Costs A$/GJ $m 60 8,000 $m Capex + Opex2 $/GJ 3,000 5.0 50 6,000 2,500 4.0 40 2,000 3.0 30 4,000 1,500 2.0 20 1,000 2,000 10 1.0 500 - 0 - 0.0 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24
Slide 38: Half year production stable at APLNG, benefiting from a diverse portfolio
Half year production stable at APLNG, benefiting from a diverse portfolio Production up 1% Managing a diverse portfolio APLNG production (100%) (PJ) APLNG operated production (TJ/d) 400 1,700 350 1,600 300 1,500 250 1,400 Unplanned facility 200 outage turndown 1,300 150 1,200 100 APLNG LNG Vessel 50
Slide 39: Recent production impacted by lower than expected optimisation benefits
Recent production impacted by lower than expected optimisation benefits Track record of strong production and low drilling Recent production challenges following turndowns enabled by field optimisation PJ APLNG Production & Operated Wells Drilled # wells drilled CTO production TJ/day 800 300 250 600
Slide 40: Near term ramp up of optimisation activities to manage natural field decline
Near term ramp up of optimisation activities to manage natural field decline Near term focus on managing natural field decline in Condabri, Talinga & Orana • Ramp up well optimisation activity − Artificial lift system (ALS) conversions − Solids mitigation solutions − Downhole design optimisations •
Slide 41: APLNG commercial update
APLNG commercial update LNG Price Review Cargo deferral period ended Dec-24 • As previously disclosed, APLNG has received a price review • In 2018 we disclosed that an APLNG buyer elected to defer notice from Sinopec in respect of its long-term LNG supply delivery of 30 cargoes over six years to 202
Slide 42: LNG trading delivering earnings growth in FY25
LNG trading delivering earnings growth in FY25 European and US Gas prices US/mmbtu 100 Majority of • Origin’s LNG trading business comprises: hedging – Cameron contract – purchase of 0.25 mtpa Henry activity 80 Hub linked gas via a contract to 2039 – Portfolio of contracts and financial hedges on a
Slide 43: Octopus Energy
Octopus Energy of -, -
Slide 44: Two world class businesses in Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies
Two world class businesses in Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies Octopus Kraken Energy Technologies Largest and most loved energy retailer in Rapidly growing global enterprise software the UK. platform. Cloud native. AI enabled. Investing to replicate success in non-UK Delivering client success
Slide 45: Now the largest and most loved energy retailer in the UK
Now the largest and most loved energy retailer in the UK YouGov survey results % customers supporting the following statements per supplier... • Delivering customer love – exceptional service, excellent value for money 74% 76% – Attracting > 40% of market switches, despite not 72% leading on price 6
Slide 46: Scaling internationally to replicate UK success in de-regulated markets
Scaling internationally to replicate UK success in de-regulated markets Non-UK customer accounts Non-UK 000s UK Germany France Italy Spain Japan1 500 Germany Households (m) 28 42 31 26 19 54 400 % annual switches 10% 15% 23% 19% 16% 20% France Smart meter 63% 1% 100% 100% 95% 100% penetration 300 Ja
Slide 47: Energy Services: Creating a step change in CLV through Low Carbon Tech
Energy Services: Creating a step change in CLV through Low Carbon Tech Value Equipment After care Flexibility / Installation streams margin R&M orchestration Market leading customer trust and brand drives customer interest and low acquisition costs Heat pumps EVs and chargers Solar, batteries and sm
Slide 48: Low Carbon Tech is expected to drive the flywheel of future customer value
Low Carbon Tech is expected to drive the flywheel of future customer value Indicative future lifetime value for an energy customer • Vertically integrated position: − Scaled and highly engaged customer base − National coverage − Proprietary hardware, software and control systems − Ability to access
Slide 49: Kraken is the new end-to-end operating system for future-oriented utilities
Kraken X is the new end-to-end operating system for future- oriented utilities FLEX CUSTOMER Consumer devices to infrastructure Customer Journeys Asset Management CIS & Billing Asset Control & Dispatch Meter Data Management Real-time Alerting Customer Relationship Asset & Portfolio Optimization Mana
Slide 50: Kraken: On track to reach 100 million accounts and >£500 million ARR
Kraken: On track to reach 100 million accounts and >£500 million ARR ahead of 2027 Live & Contracted customer accounts (m) 62 Customer demand increasing – energy companies globally 51 needing to re-platform to enable data and future energy solutions De-risked migration a key buyer criteria – risk of
Slide 51: Outlook & Wrap Up
Outlook & Wrap Up Frank Calabria, CEO
Slide 52: FY25 Guidance Summary
FY25 Guidance Summary The following guidance is provided on the basis that market conditions and the regulatory environment do not materially change Origin FY24 FY25 guidance Status Energy Markets EBITDA A$m 1,655 1,100 – 1,400 Unchanged LNG Trading EBITDA1 A$m 87 400 – 450 Upper end Share of Octopu
Slide 53: Advantaged portfolio difficult to replicate and investing further in the transition
• Advantaged portfolio that is difficult to replicate and investing further in the transition − Strong retail position, world class tech platforms, persistent focus on continuous improvement − ~3 GW gas fired generation + competitive fuel supply − 1.7 GW grid scale batteries + ~1.5 GW of wind under
Slide 54: Appendix
Appendix -, -
Slide 55: FY25 Guidance commentary - Energy Markets and Octopus Energy
FY25 Guidance commentary - Energy Markets and Octopus Energy The following guidance is provided on the basis that market conditions and the regulatory environment do not materially change Energy Markets Energy Markets (continued) FY25 EBITDA is expected to be $1,100 – $1,400 million • Cost to serve
Slide 56: FY25 Guidance commentary - Integrated Gas
FY25 Guidance commentary - Integrated Gas The following guidance is provided on the basis that market conditions and the regulatory environment do not materially change APLNG 100% APLNG 100% (continued) FY25 • Capex and opex1 is expected to be $2.7-$2.9 billion, lower than APLNG 100% FY24 previous g
Slide 57: FY25 Guidance – Origin capex
FY25 Guidance – Origin capex Origin capex, excluding acquisitions ($m) • Total Origin capex for FY25 is expected to be $1.5 1,500 - 1,700 - 1.7 billion, subject to timing of payments to key suppliers around year end – Growth capex is expected to be $1.2 – 1.3 billion with continued spend on battery
Slide 58: Our ambition and strategy
Our ambition and strategy Our ambition To lead the energy transition through cleaner energy and customer solutions Our Unrivalled customer Accelerate renewable Deliver reliable energy strategic solutions and cleaner energy through the transition pillars Our value Lower cost, greater product and serv
Slide 59: Executing on our strategy
Executing on our strategy Ambition Achieved as at 31 December 2024 $100 - $150 million cost to serve reduction (FY26 vs FY24) On track based on operational changes and initiatives underway Octopus 100 million licensed Kraken accounts (2027) ~62 million contracted Kraken customer accounts Unrivalled
Slide 60: Items excluded from Underlying Profit
Items excluded from Underlying Profit Reconciliation from Statutory to Underlying Profit ($m) Items excluded from Underlying Profit relate to: • Impairment of Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub ($13 million) • Restructuring costs relating to a review of functional and 13 41 68 (52) shared services ($24 mill
Slide 61: Customer account movements
Customer account movements Electricity ('000) 31 December 30 June 10 Customer accounts ('000) as at Change 2024 2024 Electricity 2,776 2,763 13 5 Business 24 25 (1) Retail – Mass Market 2,547 2,542 5 - Retail – Community Energy Services 205 196 9 (5) Gas 1,322 1,323 (1) NSW 1 QLD VIC SA 2 Business 1
Slide 62: Electricity forward price by State ($/MWh)
Electricity forward price by State ($/MWh) 250 NSW 200 VIC 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 - - May-22 Nov-22 May-23 Nov-23 May-24 Nov-24 May-22 Nov-22 May-23 Nov-23 May-24 Nov-24 250 QLD 250 SA 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 - - May-22 Nov-22 May-23 Nov-23 May-24 Nov-24 May-22 Nov-22 May-23 Nov-23 May-24 N
Slide 63: Origin's 'energy' position
Origin’s ‘energy’ position Illustrative Origin energy position ‘Energy prices’ are defined here as NEM pool prices TWh <$300/MWh • Impact within a financial year Losses − Customer tariffs largely fixed at start of financial year Short Not hedged to in-year pool price movements − Origin’s generation
Slide 64: Origin's 'capacity' position
Origin’s ‘capacity’ position Illustrative Origin capacity position MW ‘Capacity prices’ are defined here as prices for contracts Maximum that strike at NEM pool prices >$300/MWh demand • Impact within a financial year Capacity Only hedges in-year pool − Customer tariffs largely fixed at start of fin
Slide 65: Segment summary
Segment summary Energy Markets Share of Octopus Integrated Gas Integrated Corporate Total Energy - Share of APLNG Gas - Other ($m) HY25 HY24 HY25 HY24 HY25 HY24 HY25 HY24 HY25 HY24 HY25 HY24 Underlying EBITDA 738 1,044 (24) (12) 1,038 944 213 57 (39) (38) 1,926 1,995 Underlying EBIT 521 798 (76) (41
Slide 66: Underlying ROCE – 24 month rolling
Underlying ROCE – 24 month rolling 31 December 2024 31 December 2023 Change Change As at ($m) ($m) ($m) (%) Capital Employed Net assets 10,340 9,236 1,104 12% Adjusted net debt 4,032 3,177 855 27% Net derivative (asset)/liability (409) (144) (265) 184% Origin's share of APLNG net debt (project finan
Slide 67: Reconciliation of Adjusted Net Debt
Reconciliation of Adjusted Net Debt Issue Issue Hedged Hedged AUD $m AUD $m AUD $m $m Currency Notional Currency Notional Dec-24 Dec-24 Dec-24 Interest bearing Debt & CCIRS FV Adjusted net debt liabilities2 adjustments AUD debt AUD 1,800 AUD 1,800 1,784 1,784 USD Debt left in USD USD 525 USD 525 843
Slide 68: Energy Markets segment revenue reconciliation
Energy Markets segment revenue reconciliation The table below reconciles the difference between segment revenue and customer revenue disclosed in the Electricity, Natural Gas, LPG, Solar & Energy Services and Future Energy tables. HY25 HY24 Change Change ($m) ($m) ($m) (%) Energy Markets segment rev
Slide 69: Important notices
Important notices Forward looking statements This presentation contains forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certainty of outcome in re
Slide 70: Important notices
Important notices All figures in this presentation relate to businesses of the Origin Energy Group (Origin, or the Company), being Origin Energy Limited and its controlled entities, for the reporting period ended 31 December 2024 (the period) compared with the reporting period ended 31 December 2023
Slide 71: For more information
For more information Liam Barry Head of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations Email: liam.barry@originenergy.com.au Office: +61 293 755 991 Mobile: +61 401 710 367 Lindsay Donnelly Group Manager, Investor Relations Email: lindsay.donnelly@originenergy.com.au Office: +61 2 8345 5502 Mobile: +61 4
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