Xcel Energy Inc. · NASDAQ:XEL
Xcel Energy — FY2020 Earnings Presentation
29 slides from Xcel Energy's earnings presentation, Jan 28, 2021
Slide 1: 2020 Year End Earnings Report Presentation
2020 YEAR END EARNINGS REPORT PRESENTATION JANUARY 28, 2021
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor Except for the historical statements contained in this presentation, the matters discussed herein are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forward-looking statements, including the 2021 EPS guidance, long-term EPS and dividend
Slide 3: COVID-19 – Effective Response
COVID-19 – Effective Response • Delivered on 2020 financial and operational goals despite pandemic challenges • Strong business continuity • Vigilant in keeping employees and customers safe • Continued service reliability • Support for customers across our states • Capital investments that create jo
Slide 4: 2020 Financial & Operational Highlights
2020 Financial & Operational Highlights • Delivered earnings of $2.79 per share, meeting or exceeding guidance for the 16th consecutive year • Raised annual dividend by 10 cents (6.2%), marking the 17th consecutive annual increase • Achieved total shareholder return of just over 7.8%, the second hig
Slide 5: Approved Minnesota Wind Repowerings
Approved Minnesota Wind Repowerings Response to Minnesota Relief and Recovery Filing ~650 MW owned wind Supports 80% carbon reduction by 2030 $750 million rate base investment Creates ~700 construction jobs, supports economic growth Over $160 million customer savings Projected over the life of the a
Slide 6: Robust Capital Forecast 2021 - 2025
Robust Capital Forecast 2021 - 2025 Updated Base Forecast * Incremental Forecast Other Electric Other Electric 10% Distribution SPS 10% Distribution NSPM 30% 15% 30% 37% Natural Natural Proposed Gas LDC Gas LDC $23.5 $22.5 $24.3 NSPM solar 13% 14% Billion and wind BOT Billion Billion Electric Electr
Slide 7: Proposed Incremental Projects
Proposed Incremental Projects ~$760 Million in Additional Wind and Solar Wind Repowering (~$210 million) Solar (~$550 million) • ~120 MW • ~460 MW universal scale • MPUC filing 2021 Q1 • MPUC filing 2021 Q1 • Decision requested 2021 Q3 • Decision requested 2021 Q3 ($ Millions) 2021 2022 2023 2024 20
Slide 8: Strong Rate Base Growth
Strong Rate Base Growth $ Billions Incremental forecast: 2020 - 2025 CAGR: ~6.9% Base forecast: 2020 - 2025 CAGR: ~6.6% $45.9 $43.7 $41.2 $38.4 $45.3 $43.0 $40.5 $38.0 $35.4 $32.9 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Incremental forecast includes proposed NSPM Sherco solar and wind PPA repowering/buy
Slide 9: Proven Strength in Wind Development
Proven Strength in Wind Development ~3,700 MW of Owned Wind Now in Service In Serviced Pre-2020 Capacity In Serviced In 2020 Capacity Border 150 MW Blazing Star 1 200 MW Courtenay 200 MW Cheyenne Ridge 500 MW Grand Meadow 100 MW Crowned Ridge 200 MW Nobles 200 MW Sagamore 522 MW Pleasant Valley 200
Slide 10: 2020 ESG Highlights
2020 ESG Highlights • Achieved an estimated 50% carbon reduction in 2020 as compared to 2005 levels • On track to achieve 80% carbon reduction by 2030 • Announced conversion of Harrington coal plant to natural gas • Proposed early retirement of Hayden and Craig coal plants • Announced innovative hyd
Slide 11: EPS Results by Operating Company
EPS Results by Operating Company Fourth Quarter Full Year Operating Company 2020 2019 2020 2019 NSPM $ 0.23 $ 0.24 $ 1.12 $ 1.04 PSCo 0.25 0.25 1.11 1.11 SPS 0.10 0.09 0.56 0.51 NSPW 0.04 0.03 0.20 0.15 Equity earnings 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.05 Regulated utility 0.63 0.62 3.04 2.86 Holding company and oth
Slide 12: Quarterly GAAP and Ongoing EPS Change
Quarterly GAAP and Ongoing EPS Change $0.05 $0.03 ( $0.07) $0.10 ($0.06) ($0.03 ) ($0.02 ) ($0.02 ) $0.56 $0.54 2019 Q4 2020 Q4 EPS EPS * Combined electric and natural gas margins include ~$0.02 of negative weather impacts (post decoupling) ** Includes PTCs and tax reform regulatory amounts, which a
Slide 13: Annual GAAP and Ongoing EPS Change
Annual GAAP and Ongoing EPS Change $0.22 $0.08 $0.02 ($0.26) $0.32 ($0.10) ($0.06) ($0.06) $0.01 ( ) $2.64 $2.79 2019 2020 EPS EPS * Combined electric and natural gas margins include ~$0.03 of negative weather impacts (post decoupling) ** Includes PTCs and tax reform regulatory amounts, which are pr
Slide 14: Electric Margin
Electric Margin Fourth Quarter Full Year Diluted Earnings (Loss) Per Share 2020 2020 Electric margin (excluding reductions in sales and demand) $0.11 $0.41 Reductions in sales and demand * (0.01) (0.09) Higher electric margins $0.10 $0.32 * Excludes weather impact, net of decoupling/sales true-up an
Slide 15: Sales and Customer Data
Sales and Customer Data 2020 W/A Retail Electric Sales Growth 2020 YoY Electric Customer Growth (leap year adjusted) 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% -2.9% -2.2% -2.9% -3.1% -4.1% NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Xcel Energy NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Xcel Energy 2020 W/A Natural Gas Sales Growth 2020 YoY Natural Gas Customer Gr
Slide 16: SPS New Mexico Electric Rate Case
SPS New Mexico Electric Rate Case Case No. 20-00238-UT • In January 2021, SPS filed a required electric case: – Requesting rate increase of ~$88 million, or net increase of $48 million (reflecting fuel savings and PTCs from Sagamore wind farm) – ROE of 10.35% and equity ratio of 54.72% – Retail rate
Slide 17: NSPM North Dakota Electric Rate Case
NSPM North Dakota Electric Rate Case Case No. PU-20-441 • In November 2020, NSPM filed an electric rate case: – Requesting rate increase of $22 million – ROE of 10.2% and equity ratio of 52.5% – Rate base of $677 million – 2021 forecast test year • Interim rates of $16 million (subject to refund) we
Slide 18: Updated Base Financing Plan 2021 – 2025
Updated Base Financing Plan 2021 – 2025* $ Millions $600 $410 $7,490 $3,820 $3,820 $23,500 $15,000 CFO** Maturing Refinanced Incremental Equity Equity Base Plan LT Debt LT Debt Debt (Other) (DRIP) * Financing plans are subject to change ** Cash from operations is net of dividends and pension funding
Slide 19: 2021 GAAP & Ongoing EPS Guidance: $2.90 – $3.00
2021 GAAP & Ongoing EPS Guidance: $2.90 – $3.00 Earnings Drivers Key Assumptions (as compared to 2020 levels unless noted) Regulatory proceedings Constructive outcomes in all proceedings COVID-19 Modest impacts Weather Normal weather for remainder of year W/A retail electric sales Increase of approx
Slide 20: Updated Base Capital Expenditures by Function
Updated Base Capital Expenditures by Function $ Millions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total Electric Distribution $1,205 $1,440 $1,550 $1,505 $1,475 $7,175 Electric Transmission $870 $1,285 $1,285 $1,270 $1,290 $6,000 Electric Generation $630 $575 $560 $750 $975 $3,490 Natural Gas $615 $615 $665 $670 $6
Slide 21: Updated Base Capital Expenditures by Company
Updated Base Capital Expenditures by Company $ Millions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total NSPM $1,930 $1,785 $1,785 $1,915 $1,890 $9,305 NSPW $360 $430 $395 $515 $470 $2,170 PSCo $1,700 $1,835 $1,750 $1,695 $1,655 $8,635 SPS $505 $710 $770 $735 $675 $3,395 Other* ($20) ($15) $10 $10 $10 ($5) Total $4,4
Slide 22: Strong Credit Metrics
Strong Credit Metrics Plan 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 FFO/Debt ~17% ~17% ~17% ~17% ~17% Debt/EBITDA 4.9x 4.9x 4.8x 4.8x 4.9x Equity Ratio 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% Hold Co Debt/Total Debt 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% Credit Ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch Xcel Energy Unsecured Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ NSPM Secured Aa3 A A+ NSPW Sec
Slide 23: Appendix
APPENDIX 22
Slide 24: ROE Results – GAAP and Ongoing Earnings
ROE Results – GAAP and Ongoing Earnings GAAP and Ongoing ROE 2020E Rate Base Twelve Months Ended 12/31/2020 SPS 10.52% 10.59% 16% 9.20% 9.54% 8.87% NSPM 8.06% ~$33 38% PSCo Billion 41% NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Total Xcel NSPW OpCo Energy 5% 23
Slide 25: 2021 Debt Financing Base Plan
2021 Debt Financing Base Plan $ Millions Issuer Security Amount Hold Co Hold Co Financing ~$400 NSPM First Mortgage Bonds ~$650 NSPW First Mortgage Bonds ~$100 PSCo First Mortgage Bonds ~$450 SPS First Mortgage Bonds ~$200 Financing plans are subject to change, depending on capital expenditures, reg
Slide 26: Xcel Energy W/A Sales Growth
Xcel Energy W/A Sales Growth Residential C&I Total Retail Electric Natural Gas Electric Natural Gas 3.1% 2.4% 2.7% 1.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% -0.5% -0.3% -3.1% -5.4% 2018 2019 2020* 2018 2019 2020* 2018 2019 2020* 2018 2019 2020* * Leap year adjusted Extreme weather variations, wind chill and cloud co
Slide 27: 2020 W/A Electric Sales Growth
2020 W/A Electric Sales Growth NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Residential C&I Total Retail 3.4% 3.6% 2.3% 1.3% -2.2% -4.1% -2.9% -3.7% -2.9% -5.0% -4.8% -7.3% Leap year adjusted Extreme weather variations, wind chill and cloud cover may not be reflected in growth (decline) estimates 26
Slide 28: 2021 First Quarter Events
2021 First Quarter Events Virtual Events Dates Barclays Fixed Income Conference March 2 Morgan Stanley Conference March 2 Bank of America Conference March 3 UBS European Conference March 23-25 J.P. Morgan ESG Conference March 24 UBS Midwest Conference March 30-31 27
Slide 29: © 2021 Xcel Energy Inc.
(2) Xcel Energy’ © 2021 Xcel Energy Inc.