Veidekke Asa · OSL:VEI
Veidekke Asa — Investor Presentation (October 2025)
46 slides from Veidekke Asa's investor presentation, Oct 16, 2025
Slide 1: Autumn Market 2025 update
Autumn Market 2025 update 16 October 2025 Questions? Kristoffer Eide Hoen | Head of Insight and Analysis kristoffer.eide.hoen@veidekke.no Anders Wettre | Senior Analyst Amna Rasool | Analyst anders.wettre@veidekke.no amna.rasool@veidekke.no
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 01 Introduction 02 Economic environment 03 The contracting markets 04 Construction costs 05 Summary 06 Annex: Data centres in Norway 2
Slide 3: Introduction
O01 Introduction
Slide 4: About Veidekke's market report
About Veidekke’s market report • Veidekke prepares figures for the Scandinavian markets based on statistics published by Statistics Norway, Statistics Sweden and Statistics Denmark. Other information sources include major construction clients like the Swedish Transport Administration and the Norwegi
Slide 5: Our focus: The Scandinavian contracting markets
Our focus: The Scandinavian contracting markets Not included: - Detached houses and holiday homes - “Off-the-books work” and household DIY The contracting markets in 2024 Production of buildings* and infrastructure in NOK billion Total Scandinavian market 2024: ~ NOK 940 billion Private yrkesbygg Ap
Slide 6: Contracting markets in the period 2025–2027
Contracting markets in the period 2025–2027 Signs of stabilisation, growth from 2026 Comment Production in the Scandinavian contracting markets • The market is shifting from downturn to upturn. Building-start statistics Percentage change since previous year, current prices now show a clear, positive
Slide 7: The Scandinavian contracting markets over time
The Scandinavian contracting markets over time The market is back to where it was ten years ago Comment Production in the Scandinavian contracting markets • The figure shows developments in both current value and inflation- NOK billion, current prices adjusted prices. The dotted line (inflation-adju
Slide 8: Economic environment
02 Economic environment
Slide 9: Geopolitical snapshot
Geopolitical snapshot Geopolitical unrest and risk premium on European corporate debt • The geopolitical risk indicator (GPR) has increased Geopolitical risk (GPR-index) Risk premium on European corporate bonds markedly thus far in 2025, particularly following USA’s bombing of Iran in July. 350 Russ
Slide 10: Economic growth
Economic growth Accelerating growth in Norway, but Sweden is lagging behind Comment GDP growth • Growth in Norway has accelerated in 2025, driven more by consumption Percentage change compared to previous year and exports than by investment. • In Sweden, the expected upturn has been slow in coming,
Slide 11: Household purchasing power and job security
Household purchasing power and job security Improved purchasing power, stable unemployment Comment Household purchasing power is increasing… …while job security remains stable • The outlook for future household finances is Annual growth in real disposable income, households, % Unemployment, % of wor
Slide 12: Inflation and interest rates
Inflation and interest rates Key policy rates are being cut, but market rates remain high Market rates remain high… …while key policy rates have been cut Inflation is close to the 2% target Five-year swap rates, %, latest observation 10 October Key policy rates, %, latest observation 10 October Core
Slide 13: Demographic developments
Demographic developments Declining population growth in Norway and Sweden Comment Population growth • Population growth is an important long-term driver of both the Annual growth, % construction and the infrastructure market. • While population growth in Norway fell to 0.6% in 2024, both the increas
Slide 14: Resource requirements in different sectors
Resource requirements in different sectors Strong growth in elder care, but reduced needs in other demographic segments Comment Investment needs in different municipal sectors, Sweden • The figure from the May 2025 economic report illustrates how May 2025 economic report from the Swedish Association
Slide 15: The contracting markets
03 The contracting markets
Slide 16: Estimated order intake, construction operations
Estimated order intake, construction operations Increased order intake for major construction and civil engineering players Order book, listed companies, Nordic operations Estimated order intake, Scandinavian construction sectors Reporting companies, estimates in NOK/SEK billion according to reporte
Slide 17: The Scandinavian contracting markets
The Scandinavian contracting markets Historical figures and forecasts, current prices Norway, production by sector Sweden, production by sector Denmark, production by sector NOK billion, current prices NOK billion, current prices NOK billion, current prices Forecast Forecast Forecast 180 180 180 CAG
Slide 18: The Scandinavian contracting markets
The Scandinavian contracting markets Historical figures and forecasts, current prices Norway, production by sector Sweden, production by sector Denmark, production by sector NOK billion, fixed prices NOK billion, fixed prices NOK billion, fixed prices Forecast Forecast Forecast 200 200 200 CAGR 2025
Slide 19: Forecast 2025–2027: Approximately 50% recovery?
Forecast 2025–2027: Approximately 50% recovery? Sector and country distribution Sector distribution Year-on-year change by sector Country distribution NOK billion, forecast 2025–2027 NOK billion, forecast 2025–2027 NOK billion, forecast 2025–2027 1 200 200 20% 500 1 082 16% 1 055 985 450 418 938 949
Slide 20: The contracting markets: Construction
The contracting markets Construction
Slide 21: New residential unit sales in Norway
New residential unit sales in Norway A temporary slowdown? Comment Ready-for-sale and sold apartments • Norway saw an upturn in new residential unit Number of units, 12-month rolling total and last two months. latest observation August 2025 sales in 2024, after demand bottomed out in 2023. Thus far
Slide 22: Apartments and small houses in Norway and Sweden
Apartments and small houses in Norway and Sweden Growth in both countries, but from a low base Comment Norway, estimated order intake Sweden, estimated order intake • The intake of orders for new apartments and NOK billion NOK billion small houses grew significantly in the first half of 2025, compar
Slide 23: Commercial buildings in Norway and Sweden
Commercial buildings in Norway and Sweden Flat development in 2025 Comment Norway, estimated order intake Sweden, estimated order intake • The order intake related to commercial buildings NOK billion NOK billion grew moderately year-on-year in the first half of 2025: up 4% in Norway and up 2% in Swe
Slide 24: Public buildings in Norway and Sweden
Public buildings in Norway and Sweden A temporary decline in healthcare projects weighs on Norway; growth in Sweden Comment Norway, estimated order intake Sweden, estimated order intake • In the first half of 2025, the number of public NOK billion NOK billion building starts fell significantly in No
Slide 25: Commercial buildings in Denmark
Commercial buildings in Denmark Slight decline, but from a high level Comment Commercial buildings Public buildings • Provisional figures for the first half of 2025 Estimated order intake, NOK billion Estimated order intake, NOK billion indicate a year-on-year drop in demand. Commercial buildings we
Slide 26: The contracting markets: Infrastructure
The contracting markets Infrastructure
Slide 27: The civil engineering market in Norway and Sweden
The civil engineering market in Norway and Sweden High production throughout the forecast period Comment Norway, production Sweden, production Norway NOK billion, current prices NOK billion, current prices • Growth in the civil engineering market is Forecast Forecast estimated at 5% in 2026 and 3% i
Slide 28: Infrastructure: Public transport
Infrastructure Public transport
Slide 29: Transport infrastructure in Norway
Transport infrastructure in Norway Extensive road-building in the period to 2027 Comment Roads market, production Railways market, production Roads NOK billion, current prices NOK billion, current prices Forecast Forecast • The numerous major government projects 50 50 currently underway provide a ba
Slide 30: Transport infrastructure in Sweden
Transport infrastructure in Sweden Strong growth in the railways market expected as of 2026 Comment Roads market, production Railways market, production Roads NOK billion, current prices NOK billion, current prices Forecast Forecast • Project delays have occasioned downward 40 40 adjustment of forec
Slide 31: Sweden: National Transport Plan 2026–2037
Sweden: National Transport Plan 2026–2037 Proposal from the Swedish Transport Administration Comment Distribution of planned budget • The proposed budget for the planning period totals SEK 1 171 billion. SEK billion • Approximately half of the funds will go towards the operation and maintenance of e
Slide 32: Infrastructure: Road maintenance
Infrastructure Road maintenance
Slide 33: Road maintenance, Norway
Road maintenance, Norway High priority going forward Comment Road maintenance by clients and segment • Norway still has a substantial maintenance backlog on its road and rail NOK billion networks. Forecast 18 17.0 • The pace of development is high, particularly in the road sector. As more Municipal
Slide 34: Infrastructure: Energy, water supply and sewerage
Infrastructure Energy, water supply and sewerage
Slide 35: Norway: Energy, water supply and sewerage
Norway: Energy, water supply and sewerage Further growth expected Comment Production Energy NOK billion, current prices • We anticipate a growing market in the years until 2027, driven by increased 35 Forecast investment in the transmission grid under the auspices of Statnett. • The main focus is on
Slide 36: Sweden: Energy, water supply and sewerage
Sweden: Energy, water supply and sewerage Further growth expected Comment Production Energy NOK billion, current prices • The Swedish energy market is entering an expansion phase which will last 80 Forecast until 2027, driven by increased investment by Svenska kraftnät. • The largest investments are
Slide 37: Construction costs
04 Construction costs
Slide 38: Trends in construction cost indices
Trends in construction cost indices Still relatively stable, but somewhat higher than desired Comment Construction cost index, residential blocks, Norway Construction cost index, residential blocks, Sweden • In September 2025, construction cost inflation Percentage change compared to same month last
Slide 39: Norway: Construction cost index, civil engineering
Norway: Construction cost index, civil engineering Fuel prices have driven volatility over the past year Comment Construction cost index, roads • In June, price growth totalled 0.8% in the operation and maintenance Percentage change compared to same month last year segment and 2.8% for new-build pro
Slide 40: Key inflation drivers
Key inflation drivers Energy and currency remain stable Foreign exchange (trade-weighted indices) Energy prices latest observation 10 October Jan. 2020 = 100. latest observation October 500 123.6 129.1 450 127.5 400 358 350 261 324 122.6 300 288 118.4 250 122.8 200 211 150 154 100 100 100 50 Aug-25
Slide 41: Construction cost indices by material
Construction cost indices by material Planed timber, steel and concrete Norway Sweden Denmark Index Jan. 2020 = 100, latest observation Sep-25 Index Jan. 2020 = 100, latest observation Aug-/Sep-25 Index Q1 2020 = 100, latest observation Q2/Q3 2025 274 267 269 205 191 181 189 161 155 172 148 143 138
Slide 42: Summary
05 Summary
Slide 43: Contracting markets in the period 2025–2027
Contracting markets in the period 2025–2027 Signs of stabilisation, growth from 2026 Comment Production in the Scandinavian contracting markets • The market is shifting from downturn to upturn. Building-start statistics Percentage change since previous year, current prices now show a clear, positive
Slide 44: Annex: Data centres in Norway
06 Annex: Data centres in Norway
Slide 45: Data centres in Norway
Data centres in Norway Thus far account for a small proportion of the construction market Comment Production by sector • As at September 2025, there were 74 registered data centres in Norway, NOK billion, current prices spread across 49 operators.1 Forecasts for the period 2025-2027 • In 2024, the p
Slide 46: Thank you for
Thank you for 4 6