Asml Holding Nv · EURONEXT:ASML
Asml Holding Nv — Investor Day (December 2007)
39 slides from Asml Holding Nv's investor day presentation, Dec 6, 2007
Slide 1: Long-Term Lithography Market Potential
Long-Term Lithography Market Potential Dr. Antonio Mesquida Kusters, Director of Market Intelligence London, November 2nd 2007 Investor Day
Slide 2: Contents
Contents Introduction Long-term market potential (2006 - 2012) ASML's Lithography Demand Simulation Model Some examples of simulated market scenarios Summary & Conclusions
Slide 3: Introduction
Introduction Driven by a relatively stable market since the last down-turn in 2001-02, ASML has increased YoY revenues since then, mainly driven by: Increased CapEx spending, driven by strong memory investments Increased spending share of lithography segment out of total CapEx Increased market share
Slide 4: Contents
Contents Introduction Long-term market potential (2006 - 2012) ASML's Lithography Demand Simulation Model Some examples of simulated market scenarios Summary & Conclusions
Slide 5: ASML has developed a comprehensive market simulation model
In order to better estimate long-term lithography demand, ASML has developed a comprehensive market simulation model As part of the market intelligence activities, ASML does implement long- term scenario analysis on a regular basis for the following reasons: Mid- to long-term product roadmap decisio
Slide 6: Long-Term Demand Simulation: Basic Model Structure
Long-Term Demand Simulation: Basic Model Structure* Input parameter Interim result / Final result IC Demand IC unit demand ? IC unit demand x Application ? IC Units by application x Node distribution ? IC Units by application by node x Wafer size distribution ? IC Units by application by node by waf
Slide 7: Model takes into account installed equipment base and 200 mm capacity obsolescence
The simulation model takes into account both installed equipment base and (200 mm) capacity obsolescence Source: ASML Source: ASML
Slide 8: Selected IC market segmentation for simulation model
Selected IC market segmentation for simulation model better displays the diversity of layer stacks driving litho demand Source: ASML Source: ASML
Slide 9: Expected timing and distribution of IC units by year
For each segment, the expected timing & distribution of IC units by year is continuously updated using 3rd party estimates Source: ASML, iSuppli, Gartner Dataquest Source: ASML, iSuppli, Gartner Dataquest
Slide 10: Wafer size split taken into account for each segment
Wafer split between 200 vs. 300 mm taken into account for each segment, thus defining timing & volumes for tool obsolescence Sources: ASML, DRAMeXchange, Gartner Dataquest Sources: ASML, DRAMeXchange, Gartner Dataquest
Slide 11: Die sizes calculated using smoothed trend lines
Die sizes are calculated using smoothed trend lines of historic values for each IC segment Sources. Past: WSTS & iSuppli (using smoothed trend line); Future: ASML extrapolation Sources. Past: WSTS & iSuppli (using smoothed trend line); Future: ASML extrapolation
Slide 12: Average layer stack calculated for each node and segment
"Average" layer stack calculated for each node and segment, based on weighted calculation* from customer layer stacks * Weighted calculation based on actual segment market shares of different customers * Weighted calculation based on actual segment market shares of different customers DRAM lithograp
Slide 13: Litho shrink roadmap in Base Case simulation scenario
Litho shrink roadmap, as used in Base Case simulation scenario, does follow internal roadmaps of key customers 3D cell-stacking technology considered to be a serious candidate for NAND technology (see simulation scenarios) If 3D cell-stacking technology becomes mainstream, we believe the roadmap wil
Slide 14: Model simulates lithography market demand based on technology and market trends
The Model is simulating the lithography market demand based on IC manufacturing technology & market trends The model shows the expected litho tool demand by segment assuming a certain IC volume growth The model will always select the cheapest tool, which meets the technical requirements for a specif
Slide 15: Contents
Contents Introduction Long-term market potential (2006 - 2012) ASML's Lithography Demand Simulation Model Some examples of simulated market scenarios Summary & Conclusions
Slide 16: Technology and market-based scenarios selected to display boundaries
Apart from Base Case Scenario, 2 Technology & 2 Market-based scenarios have been selected to display boundaries of future litho demand Blue box indicates changed parameter Blue box indicates changed parameter DPT: Double Patterning
Slide 17: Expected IC unit growth used in Base Scenario
Expected IC unit growth, as used in Base Scenario, based on both forecasted (2007-08) and calculated (2009-12) data for each IC segment Sources? 2006: WSTS; 2007-2008: Gartner (memory), VLSI & IC-Insights (rest); 2009-2012: historic trend line based on WSTS Sources? 2006: WSTS; 2007-2008: Gartner (m
Slide 18: Base Case Scenario: demand at 500-600 unit level
Base Case Scenario*: Due to conservative model assumptions (e.g. ideal market efficiency), demand expected to be @ 500-600 unit level Source: ASML Source: ASML * Disclaimer: model is not a forecast but a market trajectory simulation - first years influenced in particular by actual to model adaptatio
Slide 19: Base Case Scenario: litho market growth due to tool ASP increase
Source: ASML Base Case Scenario*: regardless of stable unit demand, litho market expected to grow for the next 5 years due to tool ASP increase CAGR 2006-12 = 13.0% * Disclaimer: model is not a forecast but a market trajectory simulation - first years influenced in particular by actual to model adap
Slide 20: Base Case CAGR of 13.0% between 2006 and 2012
Base Case Simulation does predict CAGR of 13,0% between 2006 & 2012, i.e. very well in line with Gartner's historic number of 14,2% Base case scenario simulation yields slightly lower CAGR number, as compared to history, due to assumption of perfectly efficient market place (no cyclicality, etc.) So
Slide 21: Base Case Scenario: growth from DRAM, NAND and logic
Source: ASML Base Case Scenario*: Market growth expected to come from DRAM, NAND & LOGIC segments, i.e. driven by shrink & IC unit growth NAND & LOGIC segments, i.e. driven by shrink & IC unit growth NAND & LOGIC segments, i.e. driven by shrink & IC unit growth * Disclaimer: model is not a forecast
Slide 22: Model predicts significant 200 mm memory capacity obsolescence in DRAM
Model predicts significant 200 mm memory capacity obsolescence in DRAM Source: ASML Source: ASML Simulated number of obsolete 200 mm DRAM tools (i.e. 715 units) does correlate very well with bottom-up statistics (i.e. 692 units) Exact timing of future retirement will depend on chip price Manufacture
Slide 23: Different scaling options influencing litho technology and volume
Different scaling options influencing litho technology & volume 3 scenarios have been evaluated projecting future technology needs Decreased process R&D & litho equipment complexity and ASP Traditional 2D scaling: "aggressive EUV ramp-up" 2D scaling through process and "193i extension": Brion, metro
Slide 24: Scenario Aggressive 3D-scaling
Scenario* "Aggressive 3D-scaling" yields a slightly higher tool demand & revenue outlook than Base Case, especially in 2012 Since we assume 3D NAND- scaling to ramp-up at the 28 nm node, i.e. increased no. of critical layers, we can expect a significant growth of ArFi demand by 2012 ? In this scenar
Slide 25: NAND segment growing fastest in exposed area
NAND segment growing fastest in terms of exposed area 3D-shrink expected to have positive impact on NAND litho demand Technology Source: ASML
Slide 26: Scenario Aggressive EUV ramp-up
Scenario* "Aggressive EUV ramp-up": if NAND makers select EUV over double patterning after 2010, tool demand would grow fast Since NAND accounts for about 20% of the expected litho revenues during the period between 2006 and 2012, further 2D shrink in this segment would have a positive impact on EUV
Slide 27: Comparison of technology scenarios: minor impact on revenue outlook
Comparison of technology scenarios*: despite a significant difference in mix, only minor impact on overall revenue outlook Source: ASML Technology Technology Disclaimer: model is not a forecast but a market trajectory simulation - first years influenced in particular by actual to model adaptation
Slide 28: Comparison of technology scenarios: revenue outlook by IC segment
Source: ASML Comparison of technology scenarios*: revenue outlook by IC segment mainly driven by IC growth, not by the technology mix Technology Technology Disclaimer: model is not a forecast but a market trajectory simulation - first years influenced in particular by actual to model adaptation
Slide 29: Scenario assumption: slow-down in IC unit growth
For the scenario "slow-down in IC unit growth", we assume that all IC segments would be equally affected Sources? 2006: WSTS; 2007-2008: Gartner (memory), VLSI & IC-Insights (rest); 2009-2012: ASML assumptions Market Market
Slide 30: Scenario Slow-down of IC growth
Scenario* "Slow-down of IC growth": Even with a reduction of IC growth to ?8% by 2012, litho market size would be close to &128; 9 Bln Source: ASML Slow-down of IC unit growth to single-digit level unlikely to happen in the near future due to increased diversification of end-user devices including a
Slide 31: Rapid expansion of memory for PC and consumer products
Rapid expansion of memory for PC & consumer products fuelling insatiable appetite for NAND & DRAM IC's? unit growth expected to accelerate Source: WinHEC, Samsung, Lam Corporate Marketing 3x Cell Phone 4X PC Internal Hard-disk Drive 3X Digital Video Camera
Slide 32: Best-case scenario: acceleration of IC unit growth
In our best-case scenario, i.e. "acceleration of IC unit growth", only NAND volumes are higher, as compared to base case Sources? 2006: WSTS; 2007-2008: Gartner (memory), VLSI & IC-Insights (rest); 2009-2012 (NAND): ASML assumptions, based on PC segment report Deutsche Bank (Oct 07) 2009-2012 (rest)
Slide 33: Acceleration of IC unit growth scenario: NAND demand by application
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Other 0.41 0.75 1.74 3.55 5.81 20.75 91 263.9 625.84 1235.16 2348.98 4596.62 Automotive - 0.01 0.05 0.17 1.32 6.14 25.79 77.06 200.7 447.51 997.63 2119.37 PC - 0 0.02 0.24 0.62 2.9 10.59 28.91 299 1272 4144 13800 Gaming - - - - 0.33 9.03 30
Slide 34: Scenario Acceleration of IC growth
Scenario* "Acceleration of IC growth": if NAND IC units keep increasing @ +30% YoY through 2012, litho market could reach &128; 12 Bln level ! Source: ASML MCC Strong unit & revenue growth around 2012 expected from two reasons: 1. Introduction of NAND 22 nm based on 2D-cell, i.e. adding more layers
Slide 35: Comparison market scenarios: IC unit growth impact on tool demand
Source: ASML MCC Comparison market scenarios*: IC unit growth has significant impact on tool demand, thus having strong effect on revenue outlook Market Disclaimer: model is not a forecast but a market trajectory simulation - first years influenced in particular by actual to model adaptation Disclai
Slide 36: Comparison market scenarios: NAND unit growth key to market size
Source: ASML MCC Comparison market scenarios*: Long-term unit growth of NAND segment will be key in defining lithography market size Market Disclaimer: model is not a forecast but a market trajectory simulation - first years influenced in particular by actual to model adaptation Disclaimer: model is
Slide 37: Contents
Contents Introduction Long-term market potential (2006 - 2012) ASML's Lithography Demand Simulation Model Some examples of simulated market scenarios Summary & Conclusions
Slide 38: Summary & Conclusions
Summary & Conclusions ASML has developed a comprehensive market model that translates IC unit growth into lithography demand taking into account several parameters, including lithography layer stacks, node timing and distribution, wafer size, tool obsolescence, etc. Model assumes perfectly efficient
Slide 39: “es ASML
4 “es ASML Commitment & ASML