CRISIL Limited · NSE:CRISIL

CRISIL — India Outlook India Inc

14 slides from CRISIL's investor presentation, Mar 11, 2016

  1. Slide 1: India Inc: Growth, profitability and Investment outlook

    India Inc: Growth, profitability and Investment outlook 2015 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Prasad Koparkar Senior Director, CRISIL Research © 2016 March 11, 2016

  2. Slide 2: Capex cycle: Thawing up after 2 year hiatus

    Capex cycle: Thawing up after 2 year hiatus y-o-y increase in capex in FY16 (E): Sectoral contribution 0.1 0.1 1.1 2.5 1.9 0.7 0.1 1.0 3.0 1.8 © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 2.1 105 2.9 100 Note: 2014-15 investment numbers indexed to 100; E: Estimated Source: CRISIL Research 2

  3. Slide 3: … but highly skewed sector mix

    … but highly skewed sector mix y-o-y increase in capex: FY16 (E) 66% 57% 52% 50% © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 7% 3% -10% -16% -17% -30% -33% Note: E: Estimated Source: CRISIL Research

  4. Slide 4: Revenue growth bottoming out in FY16

    Revenue growth bottoming out in FY16 25% 20.2% 20% 17.3% © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 15% 13.9% 10.8% 10.9% 10% 8.6% 8 to 9% 5% 4.0% 0% FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 E FY 17 P Revenue growth Nominal GDP growth Note: Data for NSE listed companies excluding financial and oil com

  5. Slide 5: Sector wise demand growth expected in FY17

    Sector wise demand growth expected in FY17 30.0% 30.0% 25.0% 25.0% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% -5.0% -5.0% -10.0% -10.0% Auto comp Cotton Yarn Pharma PV Cement Power Steel Telecom 2W Real Estate MHCV LCV Average growthAverage in the

  6. Slide 6: EBIDTA to improve by about bps in FY17

    EBIDTA to improve by about 30 bps in FY17 20% 18.0% 17.7% 18% 17.5% 17.2% 16% 17.0% © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 14% 16.5% 16.2% 16.2% ~16.0% 16.1% 12% 15.9% 16.0% 15.7% 10.0% 10% 9.1% 15.5% 7.8% 8% 15.0% 6.7% 6.5% ~5.7% 6% 5.5% 5.4% 14.5% 4% 14.0% FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 1

  7. Slide 7: But balance sheet stress unlikely to abate quickly

    But balance sheet stress unlikely to abate quickly Proportion of debt across gearing buckets 4% 18% Vulnerable 22% 24% 22% 31% © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 29% 22% 26% 24% 22% 18% 23% 22% 20% 43% 35% 34% 32% 30% Safe Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Less than 1 times 1 to 2 times 2 to 4

  8. Slide 8: Interest coverage: Sharp deterioration

    Interest coverage: Sharp deterioration Proportion of debt across interest cover buckets Safe 56% 52% © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 57% 76% 6% 14% 12% 16% 10% Vulnerable 12% 7% 7% 26% 22% 17% 10% Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 YTD Q3 FY16 Less than 1 times 1-1.5 times 1.5-2 times Greater than 2 times

  9. Slide 9: Suboptimal capacity utilization to keep industrial capex under pressure

    Suboptimal capacity utilization to keep industrial capex under pressure (%) Optimal utilisation levels for each sector 79 86 76 77 82 68 70 54 51 © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 2015-16 Source: CRISIL Research

  10. Slide 10: Muted order inflows: Sentiment yet to recover fully

    Muted order inflows: Sentiment yet to recover fully y-o-y increase in order flow (Apr-Dec 2015) 36% 12% © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 6% -4% -9% -10% -10% -10% -13% -43% BHEL Siemens ABB Crompton Nagarjuna Thermax Alstom BGR L&T Simplex Greaves Const T&D Energy Infra Source: Company disclo

  11. Slide 11: Moderate pickup in capex expected

    Moderate pickup in capex expected y-o-y increase in capex in FY17 (P): Sectoral contribution 1.6 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.0 2.4 1.0 1.1 107 1.2 1.2 © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 1.6 2.5 100 Note: 2015-16 investment numbers indexed to 100 Source: CRISIL Research 11

  12. Slide 12: Capex to be driven by government and new policies it has implemented

    Capex to be driven by government and new policies it has implemented FY 17 Growth in FY 17 8.4% Public Pvt - © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Others 31% 33.7% Public Pvt - New policy 60% Pvt - New policy 9% -0.3% Pvt - Others Note: New policy driven sectors include Roads, Fertilisers, and Ren

  13. Slide 13: Private capex in FY17 to be lower than FY12 by about 15%

    Despite bottoming out, Private capex in FY 17 to be lower than FY12 by about 15% 42% 41% 41% 40% 47% 57% 54% © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 58% 59% 59% 60% 53% 43% 46% FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 Public Private Source: CRISIL Research

  14. Slide 14: CRISIL Limited

    © 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. CRISIL Limited www.crisil.com www.standardandpoors.com Stay Connected | Twitter | LinkedIn | YouTube | Facebook

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