Muhlenkamp Fund · NASDAQ:MUHLX

Muhlenkamp Fund — Muhlenkamp & Company — Investor Presentation (February 2018)

28 slides from Muhlenkamp Fund's investor presentation, Feb 22, 2018

  1. Slide 1: Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast February 22, 2018

    Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast February 22, 2018 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management © 2018 All rights reserved.

  2. Slide 2: Welcome

    Welcome • All participants are in a listen-only mode. • We will conduct a question-and-response session after the presentation. • This webcast is being recorded. Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

  3. Slide 3: Our Checklist: Current State and Future Outlook

    What we observe as the Our Checklist: Current State: Future Outlook: 1. Consumer Spending Good Good 2. Business Investment Improving Continued Improvement 3. Credit Default/Bank Health Good except auto loans Good except auto loans 4. Velocity of Money Declining Unsure 5. Inflation Low Inflation Unsu

  4. Slide 4: U.S. Real GDP (Annual YoY %) 1998-2019

    U.S. Real GDP (Annual YoY %) 1998-2019 6 5 Estimated 4 3 2 Percent 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year Source: Bloomberg; Estimated data OECD

  5. Slide 5: Real GDP (Year/Year %) 2008-2017

    Real GDP (Year/Year %) 2008-2017 12 10 8 6 4 Percent 2 0 China -2 India Germany -4 Japan U.S. -6 France U.K. -8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Source: Bloomberg

  6. Slide 6: U.S. Consumer Confidence 1995-Jan2018

    Consumer U.S. Consumer Confidence 1995-Jan2018 (Monthly) 165 Recessions 145 125 Index Value 105 85 65 45 25 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Shaded regions = Economic Recessions Year Source: Conference Board; Data

  7. Slide 7: Monthly Retail Sales

    Consumer Monthly Retail Sales Retail Trade and Food Services: U.S. Total — Seasonally Adjusted Sales 2007-Dec2017 550,000 500,000 450,000 $ Million 400,000 350,000 300,000 Total Sales Total Sales Ex. Auto 250,000 200,000 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-201

  8. Slide 8: U.S. Household Median Income

    U.S. Household Median Income Real Chained 2015 Dollars 1990-2016 (Yearly) $61,000 $59,000 $57,000 $55,000 $53,000 $51,000 $49,000 $47,000 $45,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Year Source: Bloomberg

  9. Slide 9: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

    Business NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 2007-Jan2018 (Monthly) Recessions 110 105 100 Index Value 95 90 85 80 75 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Shaded regions = Economic Recessions Year Source: National Federation of Independent Business NFIB; Data Normalized 1986=10

  10. Slide 10: New Orders for Durable Goods

    Business New Orders for Durable Goods $ Billion - Seasonally Adjusted 1968-Dec2017 (Monthly) Recessions 350 $ Billion (Seasonally Adjusted) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Shaded reg

  11. Slide 11: Capacity Utilization: Total Industry

    Business Capacity Utilization: Total Industry 1967-Dec2017 (Monthly) Recessions 95 90 85 Percent (%) 80 75 70 65 60 Jan-67 Jan-70 Jan-73 Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18 Shaded regions = Economic Recessions Date Source: Bloomber

  12. Slide 12: 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type

    Percent 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Credit Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Credit Card Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Date Mar-11 HE Revolving Sep-11 Auto Loan Mar-12 Percent of Balance Sep-12 2003-Sep2017 (Quarterly) Mar-13

  13. Slide 13: U.S. CPI Urban Consumers Inflation

    Percent -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jan-97 Inflation Jan-98 Jan-99 Source: Bloomberg Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 YoY % Date Jan-08 1997-Dec2017 Non Seasonally Adjusted Jan-09 Jan-10 U.S. CPI Urban Consumers Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Fed Target

  14. Slide 14: Velocity of Money - M2 Money Supply

    Velocity Velocity of Money - M2 Money Supply 1959-Dec2017 (Quarterly) 2.3 2.2 Velocity of Money = Ratio of monetary aggregate M2 to Nominal GDP 2.1 2 Turnover Rate 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Year Source:

  15. Slide 15: Interest Rates 2007-Feb 2018

    Interest Rates 2007-Feb 12, 2018 7 30 Year U.S. Treasury Bond 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note U.S. Federal Funds Effective Rate 6 30 Year Mortgage Rate (National Average) 5 4 Percent 3 Inflation 2 1 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year Source: Bloomberg

  16. Slide 16: Sovereign Interest Rate 1990-Feb2018

    10 Year Sovereign Interest Rate 1990-Feb2018 12 U.S. 10 Japan Germany U.K. 8 6 Percent 4 2 0 -2 1/1990 6/1995 12/2000 6/2006 12/2011 5/2017 Date Source: Bloomberg

  17. Slide 17: Assets on the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

    Fed Assets on the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet 2007-Feb2018 5.0 QE1 begins QE2 begins QE3 begins 4.5 4.0 3.5 Dollars (Trillion) 3.0 Direct Holdings Emergency facilities 2.5 Securities held outright 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1/3/2007 6/3/2007 11/3/2007 4/3/2008 9/3/2008 2/3/2009 7/3/2009 12/3/2009 5/3/2

  18. Slide 18: U.S. Dollar Index

    U.S. Dollar Index 2008-Feb2018 (Daily) 110 105 100 95 90 Index 85 80 75 70 65 60 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year Source: Bloomberg

  19. Slide 19: Taxes and Regulation: Changing the rules

    Taxes and Regulation Changing the rules: which rules, how much change? Political Promises Progress so far • Repeal Obamacare • Repealed penalty for no insurance as part of tax • Roll back regulations package • Tax Cuts • Regulations being reduced – Business mostly by cabinet members. – Personal • Pa

  20. Slide 20: S&P Index Sales and Earnings per Share

    S&P 500 Index Sales and Earnings per Share* 2006-2019 (Yearly) 1,600 200 * Estimated -------- 1,400 180 1,200 160 1,000 140 Dollars per Share Dollars per Share 800 120 600 100 400 Sales per Share (Left Axis) 80 Earnings per Share (Right )Axis 200 60 0 40 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

  21. Slide 21: S&P Index Price/Earnings and Price/Sales

    S&P 500 Index 1978-2019 (Yearly) 35 2.50 * Estimated - - - - Ratio 30 2.00 Ratio Price/SalesRatio 25 Price/Earnings P/E Ratio 1.50 20 Price/Sales 15 1.00 10 (Right Axis) (Left Axis) 0.50 5 Price/Sales Ratio Price/Earnings Ratio 0 0.00 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 Year NOTE: The S&P 5

  22. Slide 22: CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX)

    Index 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1/2013 4/2013 7/2013 Source: Bloomberg 10/2013 1/2014 4/2014 7/2014 10/2014 1/2015 4/2015 7/2015 Date 10/2015 2013-Feb2018 1/2016 4/2016 7/2016 10/2016 1/2017 Chicago Board Options Exchange SPX Volatility Index (VIX) 4/2017 7/2017 10/2017 1/2018

  23. Slide 23: VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN

    NAV 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1/2/13 4/2/13 7/2/13 Source: Bloomberg 10/2/13 1/2/14 4/2/14 7/2/14 10/2/14 1/2/15 4/2/15 7/2/15 Date 10/2/15 2013-Feb2018 1/2/16 4/2/16 7/2/16 10/2/16 VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN 1/2/17 4/2/17 7/2/17 10/2/17 1/2/18

  24. Slide 24: Bitcoin U.S. Dollar Cross Rate

    Bitcoin U.S. Dollar Cross Rate 2015-Feb2018 $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 U.S. Dollars $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 1/1/15 3/1/15 5/1/15 7/1/15 9/1/15 11/1/15 1/1/16 3/1/16 5/1/16 7/1/16 9/1/16 11/1/16 1/1/17 3/1/17 5/1/17 7/1/17 9/1/17 11/1/17 1/1/18 Date Source: Bloomberg

  25. Slide 25: NYSE Investor Credit vs. S&P Index

    NYSE Investor Credit vs. S&P 500 Index 1992-11/30/2017 Credit Balance calculated as the sum of Free Credit Cash Accounts and Credit Balances in Margin Accounts minus Margin Debt $400,000 3,000 Investors Have Negative Cash Balance Investors Have Positive Cash Balance $300,000 S&P 500 Index (Right Axi

  26. Slide 26: Our Checklist: Current State and Future Outlook

    What we observe as the Our Checklist: Current State: Future Outlook: 1. Consumer Spending Good Good 2. Business Investment Improving Continued Improvement 3. Credit Default/Bank Health Good except auto loans Good except auto loans 4. Velocity of Money Declining Unsure 5. Inflation Low Inflation Unsu

  27. Slide 27: Questions and Responses

    Questions and Responses Click on the orange arrow in the upper right-hand corner of your screen to open the control panel where you may submit questions. For some devices, look for the question mark at the top or bottom of your screen. We will contact you if we did not have time to respond to your q

  28. Slide 28: Intelligent Investment Management

    Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

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