Slide 1: Q4 2023 Results Presentation
Q4 2023 Results Presentation February 21, 2024
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements Forward Looking Statements Certain statements and other information included in this presentation, including under the sections "Financial Guidance" and "Market Outlook", constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looki
Slide 3: Forward Looking Statements (continued)
Forward Looking Statements Forward Looking Statements (continued) Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict, which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from results or events e
Slide 4: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights “We saw a continuation of strong fertilizer market fundamentals in North America during the fourth quarter driven by improved affordability, an extended fall application season and low channel inventories. Utilizing the strengths of our integrated business, we achieved record fo
Slide 5: Strategic Focus
Strategic Focus “As we look ahead to 2024, we expect to deliver higher fertilizer sales volumes and Retail earnings, supported by increased crop input market stability and demand. We continue to prioritize strategic initiatives that enhance our capability to serve growers in our core markets, mainta
Slide 6: Earnings Summary
Earnings Summary Three Months Ended December 31 Twelve Months Ended December 31 2023 2022 2021 2023 2022 2021 Adjusted EBITDA Retail 229 391 442 1,459 2,293 1,939 Potash 463 958 1,053 2,404 5,769 2,736 Nitrogen 391 841 921 1,930 3,931 2,308 Phosphate 130 28 196 470 594 540 Corporate and -138 -123 -1
Slide 7: Retail Results – Q4 2023
Retail Results – Q4 2023 Gross Margin Lower Crop Protection Products US$ Millions • Decreased selling prices compared to the historically strong comparable period in 2022 • Partially offset by higher fourth quarter sales in North America Higher Nutrien Financial • Higher utilization of our financing
Slide 8: Retail Results – 2023
Retail Results – 2023 Lower Crop Nutrients • Lower selling prices across all Gross Margin regions compared to the strong US$ Millions comparable period in 2022 • Partially offset by higher volumes Lower Crop Protection Products • Decreased selling prices compared to the historically strong comparabl
Slide 9: Potash Results – Q4 2023
Potash Results – Q4 2023 Lower net realized selling prices • Decline in benchmark prices and Gross Margin higher costs related to logistical US$ Millions challenges at Canpotex’s West Coast port facilities $1,067 Higher sales volumes • Highest fourth quarter on record • Lower channel inventory and i
Slide 10: Potash Results – 2023
Potash Results – 2023 Lower net realized selling prices • Decline in benchmark prices and higher costs related to logistical Gross Margin challenges at Canpotex’s West US$ Millions Coast port facilities Higher sales volumes $6,499 • Higher North American volumes due to lower channel inventory and in
Slide 11: Nitrogen Results – Q4 2023
Nitrogen Results – Q4 2023 Gross Margin Lower net realized selling prices US$ Millions • Weaker benchmark prices resulting from lower energy prices $699 in key nitrogen producing regions Lower COGS (excl. D&A) • Lower natural gas costs $285 Higher sales volumes • Higher UAN production and sales • Pa
Slide 12: Nitrogen Results – 2023
Nitrogen Results – 2023 Gross Margin Lower net realized selling prices US$ Millions • Weaker benchmark prices resulting from lower energy prices $3,281 in key nitrogen producing regions Lower COGS (excl. D&A) • Lower natural gas costs Higher sales volumes $1,379 • Higher UAN production and sales • P
Slide 13: Financial Guidance
Financial Guidance 13
Slide 14: 2024 Financial Guidance and Sensitivities
2024 Financial Guidance and Sensitivities 2024 Annual Guidance 1 Ranges as of 2023 February 21, 2024 Full-Year (billions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted) Low High Actuals Retail adjusted EBITDA 1.65 1.85 1.5 Potash sales volumes (million tonnes) 2 13.0 13.8 13.2 Nitrogen sales volumes (mill
Slide 15: Retail Adjusted EBITDA, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Retail Adjusted EBITDA, Market Outlook and Assumptions Retail Adjusted EBITDA Market Outlook and Assumptions US$ Billions $2.3 • Crop prices have declined from historically high levels in 2022 but lower crop input prices have resulted in improved demand. $1.9 $1.85 • US corn plantings expected to ra
Slide 16: Potash Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Potash Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2024 Potash Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity 1 Market Outlook and Assumptions US$ Billions 4.0 • Expect 2024 global potash demand of 68 to 71Mmt. 3.5 • North American channel inventories were tight to start the year 3.0 and we expect increased demand in
Slide 17: Nitrogen Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Nitrogen Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2024 Nitrogen Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity 1, 2 Market Outlook and Assumptions US$ Billions 3.5 • Expect nitrogen supply constraints to persist in 2024, including limited Russian ammonia exports, reduced European operating 3.0 rates and Chinese ure
Slide 18: Phosphate Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions
Phosphate Sensitivity, Market Outlook and Assumptions 2024 Phosphate Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity 1 Market Outlook and Assumptions US$ Billions 0.8 • Phosphate fertilizer markets have remained relatively strong in the 0.7 first quarter of 2024, particularly in North America where channel inventories
Slide 19: Disciplined approach to capital expenditures
Disciplined approach to capital expenditures Capital Expenditures US$ Billions $2.7B Investing Capital Priorities $2.2B - $2.3B • Retail: investment in high value proprietary products categories, network Investing optimization and digital capabilities Mine Development • Potash: advancing mine automa
Slide 20: Market Outlook
Market Outlook 20
Slide 21: Global crop yields have recently been below-trend levels
Global crop yields have recently been below-trend levels, in part due to the decline in fertilizer application Global Fertilizer Consumption and Crop Yields1 Million Nutrient Tonnes Tonnes/Hectare 200 N P2O5 K2O Global Yield Yield Trend 4.00 180 3.50 160 3.00 140 2.50 120 100 2.00 80 1.50 60 1.00 40
Slide 22: Global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low
Global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low going into the 2024 growing season Global Stocks/Use Ratios Percent 18% Corn 30% Wheat 25% Rice World excl. China World excl. China World excl. China 16% 25% 14% 20% 12% 20% 15% 10% 15% 8% 10% 6% 10% 4% 5% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2013 2015 2017 2019 2
Slide 23: Crop prices have declined from 2022 highs but input prices improved demand
Crop prices have declined from historically high levels in 2022 but lower crop input prices have resulted in improved demand Corn Avg. Realized Price1 Soybean Avg. Realized Price1 US$/bushel US$/bushel $14.20 $6.54 $13.30 $6.00 $12.65 $11.52 $10.80 $4.53 $4.80 $4.58 $9.47 $9.33 $8.95 $8.48 $8.57 $3.
Slide 24: Crop prices remain elevated relative to history while fertilizer costs have eased
Crop prices remain elevated relative to history while fertilizer costs have eased Key Crop Grower Cash Margins1,2 US Corn Cash Selling Price & Costs3,4 Local Currency Margin/Acre US$/bu US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans $7.00 500 5,000 $6.00 400 4,000 $5.00 300 3,000 $4.
Slide 25: Continued crop input market stabilization and global demand growth in 2024
We expect continued crop input market stabilization and global demand growth in 2024 Selected Fertilizer Prices1 Fertilizer Market Drivers US$ per Unit K $1,200 Brazil (Gran. US$/mt CFR) US Midwest (Gran. - US$/st FOB) Southeast Asia (Stan. - US$/mt CFR) • Global potash demand was strong through the
Slide 26: Global potash demand will continue to recover towards trend levels in 2024
We expect global potash demand will continue to recover towards trend levels in 2024 with shipments projected between 68 to 71 million tonnes Potash Demand Millions of Tonnes KCl 20 15 10 5 0 20 21 22 23E 24F 20 21 22 23E 24F 20 21 22 23E 24F 20 21 22 23E 24F 20 21 22 23E 24F 20 21 22 23E 24F India
Slide 27: Relatively balanced global potash market in 2024
We anticipate a relatively balanced global potash market in 2024 with incremental supply from producers in Canada, Russia, Belarus and Laos Potash Production in Selected Regions Millions of Tonnes KCl 25 2022 2023E 2024F 20 15 10 5 0 1 Canada Russia Belarus Europe Middle East China Other 1. Includes
Slide 28: North American natural gas prices remain highly competitive
North American natural gas prices remain highly competitive compared to Europe and Asia 2024 Key Global Natural Gas Prices1 2024 Global Urea Production Cost Curve2 US$/MMBtu US$/tonne FOB $10 $450 Canada China Coal $400 US Other $8 $350 $300 $6 $250 $200 $4 $150 $2 $100 $50 $0 $0 Canada US Europe As
Slide 29: Nitrogen supply from key regions remains constrained
Nitrogen supply from key regions remains constrained Russian Ammonia Exports European Nitrogen Capacity1,2 Millions of Tonnes Millions of Tonnes 5 20 Online Capacity Curtailed Capacity 4 15 3 10 2 5 1 0 0 Ammonia Urea (Gross) AN & CAN 3 UAN 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 1. Capacity curtailments are poi
Slide 30: US nitrogen supply and demand balance projected to be tight
The US nitrogen supply and demand balance is projected to be tight ahead of the spring application season First Half Fertilizer Year (Jul-Dec) US Nitrogen Trade Balance (imports less exports)1 Thousands of Short Tons Product 1,600 Ammonia Urea UAN -13% 1,200 -44% 800 -98% 400 0 3yr Avg 2023/24 3yr A
Slide 31: Expect lower Chinese fertilizer exports compared to historical average
Expect lower Chinese fertilizer exports compared to historical average China DAP/MAP Exports China Urea Exports Millions of Tonnes Millions of Tonnes 12 Full Year Exports Total Year Avg 6 Full Year Exports Total Year Avg Annual Avg 2017-2021 10 Annual Avg ~4.6 Mmt 2017-2021 ~9.2 Mmt 8 4 6 4 2 2 0 0
Slide 32: Thank You!
Thank You! For more information, please visit nutrien.com facebook.com/nutrienltd linkedin.com/company/nutrien youtube.com/nutrien @nutrienltd