Alcoa Corporation · NYSE:AA

Alcoa — Q1 2024 Earnings Presentation

40 slides from Alcoa's earnings presentation, Apr 17, 2024

  1. Slide 1: 1st Quarter Earnings

    st 1 Quarter Earnings Alcoa Corporation April 17, 2024 1

  2. Slide 2: Cautionary Statement regarding Forward-Looking Statements

    Cautionary Statement regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements inclu

  3. Slide 3: Important information

    Important information Additional Information and Where to Find It This communication does not constitute an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This communication relates to the proposed transaction. In connection with the proposed transaction, Alcoa p

  4. Slide 4: William Oplinger

    William Oplinger President and Chief Executive Officer 4

  5. Slide 5: Alumina Limited acquisition simplifies ownership structure

    Alumina Limited acquisition simplifies ownership structure Comparison of pre- and post-acquisition ownership structures of Alcoa and AWAC joint venture From complex ownership at a sub-segment level… …to streamlined ownership at the wholeco level Current Alcoa shareholders: 68.75%1 Alumina Limited Al

  6. Slide 6: Alumina acquisition offers immediate and significant benefits

    Alumina acquisition offers immediate and significant benefits Benefits of Alcoa’s acquisition of Alumina Limited The right deal for Alumina Limited shareholders ▪ Diversifies ownership to a large-scale, global upstream aluminum company ▪ Allows Australian investors access to Alcoa shares via ASX-lis

  7. Slide 7: Key actions continue, in addition to Alumina Limited transaction

    Key actions continue, in addition to Alumina Limited transaction Update on recent and ongoing key initiatives Key achievements in 1Q24 ▪ No fatal or serious injuries (FSI-As) ▪ Signed agreement to acquire Alumina Limited ▪ Continued San Ciprián discussions; started sale process ▪ Completed Warrick r

  8. Slide 8: Molly Beerman

    Molly Beerman Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer 8

  9. Slide 9: 1Q24 EPS of $(1.41), Adjusted EPS of $(0.81)

    1Q24 EPS of $(1.41), Adjusted EPS of $(0.81) Quarterly income statement summary 4Q23 1Q24 Change Third party realized prices ($/mt) Realized primary aluminum price $2,678 $2,620 $(58) Realized alumina price $344 $372 $28 Income statement highlights (millions, except per share amounts) Revenue $2,595

  10. Slide 10: Lower energy, raw materials costs improve Adjusted EBITDA

    Lower energy, raw materials costs improve Adjusted EBITDA 1Q24 Sequential changes in Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items, $M 4 50 63 132 (16) 4Q23 1Q24 Change Alumina1 $84 $139 $55 15 89 Aluminum1 88 50 (38) 9 (8) Transformation (26) (14) 12 (13) (61) Intersegment (12) (8) 4 eliminations Other c

  11. Slide 11: Working capital build the largest use of cash

    Working capital build the largest use of cash 1Q24 sequential quarter cash flow information 1Q24 YTD Cash flow information, $M 1Q24 Commentary 937 6 ▪ Sources include $750 million debt Restricted cash used Net NCI contributions 55 issuance, net of discount and fees Adjusted EBITDA ▪ Working capital

  12. Slide 12: Debt issue increases cash balance

    Debt issue increases cash balance Key financial metrics and cash flow information, 1Q24 and YTD Key financial metrics 1Q24 Commentary ▪ Working capital build increased 1Q24 Days Days working capital 8 days and 2024 YTD Return on equity working capital drove negative Free cash flow plus (14.5)% 47 Da

  13. Slide 13: 2024 Outlook

    2024 Outlook FY24 Key metrics as of March 31, 2024 Income statement excl. special items impacts Cash flow impacts 1Q24 YTD Actual FY24 Outlook 1Q24 YTD Actual FY24 Outlook Alumina production (Mmt) 2.7 9.8 – 10.0 Pension / OPEB cash funding $19M ~ $70M Alumina shipments (Mmt) 3.3 12.7 – 12.9 Stock re

  14. Slide 14: William Oplinger

    William Oplinger President and Chief Executive Officer 14

  15. Slide 15: Near term market improving; long term remains positive

    Near term market improving; long term remains positive 1Q24 Market and commercial update Near term Long term $380 Platts FOB WA ▪ Steady demand ▪ Alumina demand to grow $360 ▪ Chinese refinery alongside aluminum curtailments due to domestic ▪ ~80% of new refining Alumina bauxite shortage projects fu

  16. Slide 16: Key operational activities underway, including at San Ciprián

    Key operational activities underway, including at San Ciprián Path forward for near term annual profitability improvement Near term actions San Ciprián solution ▪ Raw materials savings ▪ Pots restarted (6%) in 1Q24 in compliance with − Benefits being realized as expected, or better viability agreeme

  17. Slide 17: Alumina Limited deal, key activities progress, better markets

    Alumina Limited deal, key activities progress, better markets 1Q24 Summary First quarter summary ▪ Strong safety performance and ongoing programs ▪ Signed agreement to acquire Alumina Limited ▪ Completed restart at Warrick ▪ Issued $750 million green bond Going forward ▪ Progress and close Alumina L

  18. Slide 18: Appendix

    Appendix 18

  19. Slide 19: Maximizing value creation through balanced uses of cash

    Maximizing value creation through balanced uses of cash Capital allocation framework and value creation considerations Capital allocation framework Maximize value creation Return cash to stockholders Maintain strong balance sheet ▪ 1Q24 dividend payments totaled $19 million through the cycle Transfo

  20. Slide 20: Quarterly income statement

    Quarterly income statement Quarterly income statement for 1Q23, 4Q23 and 1Q24 Prior Year Sequential Millions, except realized prices and per share amounts 1Q23 4Q23 1Q24 Change Change Realized primary aluminum price ($/mt) $3,079 $2,678 $2,620 $(459) $(58) Realized alumina price ($/mt) $371 $344 $37

  21. Slide 21: Special items

    Special items Breakdown of special items by income statement classification – gross basis Millions, except per share amounts 1Q23 4Q23 1Q24 Description of significant 1Q24 special items Net loss attributable to Alcoa Corporation $(231) $(150) $(252) Loss per share1 $(1.30) $(0.84) $(1.41) Special it

  22. Slide 22: Quarterly income statement excluding special items

    Quarterly income statement excluding special items Quarterly income statement excluding special items for 1Q23, 4Q23 and 1Q24 Prior Year Sequential Millions, except realized prices and per share amounts 1Q23 4Q23 1Q24 Change Change Realized primary aluminum price ($/mt) $3,079 $2,678 $2,620 $(459) $

  23. Slide 23: 1Q24 Financial summary

    1Q24 Financial summary Three months ending March 31, 2024, excluding special items Intersegment Other Alcoa Millions Alumina Aluminum4 Transformation eliminations corporate Corporation Total revenue $1,356 $1,642 $7 $(406) - $2,599 Third-party revenue $961 $1,638 $3 - $(3) $2,599 Adjusted EBITDA1 $1

  24. Slide 24: 1Q24 Segment Adjusted EBITDA drivers

    1Q24 Segment Adjusted EBITDA drivers Segment Adjusted EBITDA sequential changes, $M Segment Segment Adjusted Adjusted EBITDA Metal Raw Production EBITDA 4Q23 Currency prices API materials Energy Price/mix Volume costs Other 1Q24 Alumina $84 9 0 47 6 13 1 (15) (7) 1 $139 Aluminum $88 (10) (13) (11) 9

  25. Slide 25: Aluminum value chain

    Aluminum value chain 2024 YTD Alcoa shipments by product type Bauxite Alumina Aluminum 10.5 Mdmt shipments 3.3 Mmt shipments 0.6 Mmt shipments Third party Intersegment 9% 0% Intersegment 28% 72% 91% Third party 100% Intrasegment Third party 25

  26. Slide 26: Composition of alumina and aluminum production costs

    Composition of alumina and aluminum production costs Alcoa 1Q24 production cash costs Alumina refining Input Inventory Pricing FY24 annual cost Bauxite cost flow convention sensitivity 25% Conversion 37% Caustic soda 5 - 6 Months Quarterly, Spot $11M per $10/dmt1 Quarterly, 91% with 14% Natural gas

  27. Slide 27: 2024 Business information

    2024 Business information Estimated annual Segment Adjusted EBITDA sensitivities $Millions AUD BRL CAD EUR ISK NOK LME API Midwest Europe Japan + 0.01 + 0.10 + 0.01 + 0.01 + 10 + 0.10 Segment + $100/mt + $10/mt + $100/mt + $100/mt + $100/mt 0.661 4.951 1.351 1.091 137.121 10.491 Alumina 1012 (22)2 7

  28. Slide 28: Currency impacts on Segment Adjusted EBITDA

    Currency impacts on Segment Adjusted EBITDA Currency balance sheet revaluation and EBITDA sensitivities impact ($M, except currencies) AUD BRL CAD EUR ISK NOK Total 03/31/24 currencies 0.65 4.99 1.36 1.08 138.20 10.77 1Q24 currency average 0.66 4.95 1.35 1.09 137.12 10.49 1Q24 Balance sheet revaluat

  29. Slide 29: Additional business considerations

    Additional business considerations Items expected to impact Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted net income for 2Q24 Expected sequential impacts on Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items, excluding indexed sales prices or currency impacts: ▪ In the Alumina segment, we expect impacts of approximately $20 mi

  30. Slide 30: Investments summary

    Investments summary Investments listing and income statement location Ownership Carrying value as of Income statement location of Investee Country Nature of investment4 interest March 31, 2024 equity earnings ELYSIS Limited Partnership Canada Aluminum smelting technology 48.235% Ma’aden Aluminium Co

  31. Slide 31: Alcoa sustainability goals

    Alcoa sustainability goals Alcoa strategic long-term sustainability goals, baseline and progress Goal Description 2015 Baseline 2022 Progress Zero fatalities and serious injuries (life-threatening, life-altering injury or 5 fatal or serious 0 fatalities and 1 serious Safety illness) injuries/illness

  32. Slide 32: Production and capacity information

    Production and capacity information Alcoa Corporation annual consolidated amounts as of March 31, 2024 Alumina refining, kmt Aluminum smelting, kmt Facility Country Capacity Curtailed Facility Country Capacity Curtailed Kwinana1 Australia 2,190 438 Portland Australia 197 42 Pinjarra Australia 4,700

  33. Slide 33: Valuation framework key considerations

    Valuation framework Valuation framework key considerations LTM ending 03/31/24 Adj. EBITDA excl. special items Economic value using market multiple of: i. AWAC joint venture, minus small portions of AWAC JV in Aluminum and + Alumina segment Transformation $309M ii. Ownership in certain mines and ref

  34. Slide 34: Adjusted EBITDA reconciliations

    Adjusted EBITDA reconciliations Millions 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 FY23 1Q24 Net loss attributable to Alcoa $(231) $(102) $(168) $(150) $(651) $(252) Add: Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interest (1) (19) (25) (77) (122) (55) Provision for (benefit from) income taxes 52 22 (35) 150 189 (18) Other

  35. Slide 35: Free cash flow reconciliation

    Free cash flow reconciliation Millions 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 FY23 1Q24 Cash provided from operations $(163) $(13) $69 $198 $91 $(223) Capital expenditures (83) (115) (145) (188) (531) (101) Free cash flow (246) (128) (76) 10 (440) (324) Contributions from noncontrolling interest 86 36 42 24 188 61 Dis

  36. Slide 36: Net debt reconciliations

    Net debt reconciliations 1Q23 4Q23 1Q24 Alcoa Alcoa Alcoa $M Cons. NCI Prop. Cons. NCI Prop. Cons. NCI Prop. Short-term borrowings $25 $- $25 $56 $- $56 $52 $- $52 Long-term debt due within one year 1 - 1 79 31 48 79 31 48 Long-term debt, less amount due within one year 1,806 32 1,774 1,732 - 1,732

  37. Slide 37: DWC working capital and Days working capital reconciliations

    DWC working capital and Days working capital reconciliations Millions 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 Receivables from customers $753 $702 $691 $656 $869 Add: Inventories 2,395 2,400 2,190 2,158 2,048 Less: Accounts payable, trade 1,489 1,491 1,472 1,714 1,586 DWC working capital $1,659 $1,611 $1,409 $1,10

  38. Slide 38: Annualized Return on Equity (ROE)

    Annualized Return on Equity (ROE) ROE Reconciliation and calculation information as of March 31, 2024 Millions 1Q23 1Q24 (Net Loss/Income Attributable to Alcoa + Special Items1) Numerator: ROE % = X 100 Net loss attributable to Alcoa Corporation $(231) $(252) (Total Assets – Total Liabilities – Nonc

  39. Slide 39: Glossary of terms

    Glossary of terms Abbreviations listed in alphanumeric order Abbreviation Description Abbreviation Description % pts Percentage points FOB WA Freight on board Western Australia 1H## Six months ending June 30 FY## Twelve months ending December 31 1Q## Three months ending March 31 GAAP Accounting prin

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