Slide 1: Lifting the lid on the Global Market Forecast
Lifting the lid on the Global Market Forecast Cities, Airports & Aircraft Bob Lange SVP Business Analysis and Market Forecast
Slide 2: The Global Market Forecast answers three questions
The Global Market Forecast answers three questions Traffic forecast How many passengers will fly? Network forecast Where will passengers fly? World fleets forecast How will passengers fly? 2 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Slide 3: The Global Market Forecast in numbers
The Global Market Forecast in numbers Major traffic flows Cities Airports City pairs Airlines (Origin - Destination) ~100 ~3,200 ~3,300 ~600,000 ~800 3 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019
Slide 4: Traffic forecast: we consider many variables
Traffic forecast: we consider many variables Airlines Business models & strategy Liberalisation Jet fuel price Tourism trends Air fares Geopolitics 4 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Slide 5: By 2038, 5.8 billion people will live in cities or other urban centres
By 2038, 5.8 billion people will live in cities or other urban centres Population (billion) Urban population as % of total 10 64% 9 8 55% 7 46% 6 4.2 billion 5.8 billion 5 Additional people per year 2.7 billion (million) 4 Urban population 76 3 Rural population 1,5 2 1 Forecast 0 1998 2002 2006 2010
Slide 6: The “Middle Class” will grow fastest in the emerging countries
The “Middle Class” will grow fastest in the emerging countries Middle Class (millions) & Percentage of World population 7,000 Forecast 5,940 (66%) 6,000 5,060 CIS x1.3 x1.0 North America (60%) x1.3 5,000 Middle East 3,950 x1.0 Europe (52%) x1.4 4,000 Latin America 2,860 x2.3 Africa (42%) 3,000 Asia-
Slide 7: In 2018, ~0.35 trips per capita in Emerging countries
In 2018, ~0.35 trips per capita in Emerging countries 2018 trips per capita 10 Bubble size proportional 2018 to population Advanced Economies Developing Economies United States, 2018 Emerging Economies 1 2.0 trips per capita 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 China, 2018 0.4 trips per capita 0.1 India, 2018
Slide 8: …and in 2038, ~0.95 trips per capita in Emerging countries
…and in 2038, ~0.95 trips per capita in Emerging countries 2038 trips per capita 10 Bubble size proportional 2038 to population Advanced Economies Developing Economies United States, 2038 2.8 trips per capita Emerging Economies 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 China, 2038 1.4 trips per capita India, 2038
Slide 9: Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a.
Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a. World annual traffic (RPK billion) with main growing flows RPK (billions) 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 20.3 trillion 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 8.7 trillion 50% growth 4,000 2,000 0 2018 2038 9 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Slide 10: Growing networks: most active new route creation 2017-2018
Networks Growing are growing networks: most active new route creation 2017-2018 Net city-pairs 3,000 • Intra PRC 2,000 • Africa – Europe 1,000 • Transatlantic 0 • Short haul within Europe -1,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 • Long haul LCC 10 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019
Slide 11: ~800 airlines in our sample
~800 airlines in our sample No. of airlines in GMF by region Nb. of airlines in GMF in 2018 Sub Sahara 131 Full Service Carrier Europe 118 Low Cost Carrier 27% 35% Regional/Commuter Asia 91 Other CIS 66 12% PRC 55 26% Middle East 54 South America 45 USA 35 Installed seats in service in 2018 Central
Slide 12: Business models are evolving… (2008)
Business models are evolving… Share of each business model on Domestic and Intra-regional flights 2008 Million 951 970 764 222 85 57 68 seats offered Other Regional/Commuter Full Service Carrier Low Cost Carrier Asia/Pacific North America Europe Latin America Middle East CIS Africa 12 Source: OAG, A
Slide 13: Business models are evolving… (2018)
Business models are evolving… Share of each business model on Domestic and Intra-regional flights 2018 Million 1,983 1,056 953 342 204 112 97 seats offered Other Regional/Commuter Full Service Carrier Low Cost Carrier Asia/Pacific North America Europe Latin America Middle East CIS Africa 13 Source:
Slide 14: In today’s operations, aircraft are used flexibly in capacity and range
In today’s operations, aircraft are used flexibly in capacity and range 2018 operations Number of aircraft Seats 1000 500 100 400 10 300 0 250 210 150 Shades of blue are proportional to the number of aircraft in service 100 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Distance (nm) 14 Source: OAG, Airbus
Slide 15: Increasing deliveries in 175-seat and now 210-seat neutral categories
Increasing deliveries in 175-seat and now 210-seat neutral categories Rolling past 10-year deliveries overlaid on neutral seating categories Past deliveries 10-year period 6,000 1998-2007 1999-2008 5,000 2000-2009 2001-2010 4,000 2002-2011 2003-2012 2004-2013 3,000 2005-2014 2006-2015 2,000 2007-201
Slide 16: Strongest category also has highest proportion of Low Cost Carriers
Strongest category also has highest proportion of Low Cost Carriers 2009-2018 deliveries overlaid on neutral seating categories 6,000 Deliveries between 5,000 2009-2018 4,000 Airline business models Other 3,000 Full Service Carriers Regional/Commuter Low Cost Carriers 2,000 1,000 0 100 125 150 175 2
Slide 17: Forecast new deliveries: move upwards to 210-seat neutral category
Forecast new deliveries: move upwards to 210-seat neutral category Forecast deliveries 2019-2038 12,000 11,370 10,395 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,790 4,000 2,700 2,515 2,375 2,000 1,550 1,450 730 485 0 100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 ≥450 Neutral seating categories 17 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100sea
Slide 18: Regional distribution of 20-year new deliveries
Regional distribution of 20-year new deliveries Asia-Pacific airlines: Asia/Pacific 16,540 42% of new aircraft demand Europe 7,540 Europe & North America airlines: North America 6,380 35% of new aircraft demand Middle East 3,240 Middle-East, Latin America, CIS Latin America 2,700 & Africa airlines:
Slide 19: Global demand for 39,210 new passenger & freighter aircraft
Global demand for 39,210 new passenger & freighter aircraft Europe & CIS North America 9,080 (23%) 6,380 (17%) Asia/Pacific 16,540 (42%) Middle-East 3,240 (8%) Airbus Airbus Backlog: 23% Backlog: 18% Latin Airbus America Africa Backlog: 11% Airbus 2,700 (7%) 1,270 (3%) Backlog: 36% Airbus Airbus SMA