National Bank Of Greece S.a. · ATHEX:ETE
National Bank Of Greece — Q1 2024 Earnings Presentation
51 slides from National Bank Of Greece's earnings presentation, May 1, 2024
Slide 1: 1Q24 Financial Results
1Q24 Financial Results 1 May 2024
Slide 2: Table of Contents
Table of Contents 01 Key Financial Highlights 02 Macro 03 Financial Results in Detail 04 ESG Update 05 Transformation Program Update 06 BP 2024-26 and Guidance 07 Appendix 2
Slide 3: Key Financial Highlights
01 Key Financial Highlights 3
Slide 4: Strong financial performance across key indicators continues in 1Q24
01 Key Financial Highlights Strong financial performance across key indicators continues in 1Q24 RoTE | % C:CI | % Loan Disbursements, CET1, PAT | € m Core PPI | € b Balances | € b Total Capital | % Attr. RoTE 19.7% C:CI 29.9% 1Q24 €1.1b CET1 change +c80bps Disbursements qoq² Core RoTE 17.6% Month A
Slide 5: 1Q24 profitability performance bodes well for FY24 target attainment
01 Key Financial Highlights 1Q24 profitability performance bodes well for FY24 target attainment Core PAT | € m Core RoTE | % FY24 guidance c€1.2b FY24 guidance c15% 320 17.6% 220 14.3% 5.1% 69 1Q22 1Q23 1Q24 1Q22 1Q23 1Q24 Cost to Core Income | % EPS¹ | € FY24 guidance <35% TBVPS FY24 guidance c1.2
Slide 6: Deposit mix stable; seasonality and cash management affects corporate deposits in 1Q
01 Key Financial Highlights Deposit mix stable; seasonality and cash management affects corporate deposits in 1Q NBG Deposit¹ flows ytd (€ b) NBG Deposit¹ mix (%) 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% +€0.2b 16% 18% 19% 19% 19% Corporate & other Corporate & other >27% mkt -€0.7b qoq -€1.2b qoq share o/w 81% 80% 79% 79% 78
Slide 7: NBG becomes the first Greek Bank to regain Investment Grade status
01 Key Financial Highlights NBG becomes the first Greek Bank to regain Investment Grade status Credit ratings | Sovereign and NBG Key MDBRS Credit Rating Highlights Investment Grade ✓ Leading franchise in retail and corporate banking in Greece ✓ Core earnings power has improved on the back of BBB- B
Slide 8: Macro
NATIONAL BANK @ OF GREECE 02 Macro
Slide 9: Economic activity is gathering pace in 1Q24
02 Macro Economic activity is gathering pace in 1Q24 Economic activity shows signs of acceleration according to the latest available International arrivals 2.5 mn persons/ 2.5 Millions at Athens Airport: A monthly indicators, post a temporary, flood and fixed-investment led slowdown in strong start
Slide 10: Signs of renewed dynamism, fiscal outperformance and resilience to geopolitical risks
02 Macro Signs of renewed dynamism, fiscal outperformance and resilience to geopolitical risks • The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) surged to an 8-month high of 108.5 in 130 130 Robust economic Wildfires and Covid-19 April, on increased confidence in services, industry and consumer surveys; 2Q24
Slide 11: Supportive labor market conditions and a slowing in food inflation offset energy risks
02 Macro Supportive labor market conditions and a slowing in food inflation offset energy risks 24 15 Acceleration in employment 20 yoy 30 Increasing €bn yoy % growth to 2.3% yoy in 2M24 compensation of from 1.3% in FY23 15 25 employees & 22 10 consumer loans to 10 support consumption 5 20 20 5 15 0
Slide 12: Solid production trends, robust demand for services and increasing loan growth
02 Macro Solid production trends, robust demand for services and increasing loan growth Signs of acceleration in 50 yoy 50 Remarkable 70 70 yoy, index business turnover in key 40 2m m.a. 40 outperformance of Greek 65 65 sectors manufacturing against 30 30 euro area peers 60 60 Transportation and sto
Slide 13: Strong fiscal credibility and an increasing boost from RRF spending in 2024-2026
02 Macro Strong fiscal credibility and an increasing boost from RRF spending in 2024-2026 General Government %GDP %GDP 210 Top recipient of RRF funds 16 % of 2022 GDP Primary surplus at 1.9% surplus and top performer on pace 12 of GDP and Gross Debt 185 of absorption 14 to GDP ratio down by 8 12 45
Slide 14: Financial Results in Detail
03 Financial Results in Detail 14
Slide 15: 1Q24 Core PAT up 45% yoy driving attributable PAT to €358m
03 Financial Results in Detail 1Q24 Core PAT up 45% yoy driving attributable PAT to €358m (+14% qoq) P&L Highlights P&L | Group (€ m) 1Q24 1Q23 YoY 4Q23 QoQ 1Q24 Group core PAT at €320m, up by 45% yoy, reflects higher NII by +22% yoy on rate and volume NII 606 497 +22% 623 -3% effects, strong Fees (
Slide 16: Our B/S continues to strengthen and generate even higher recurring profitability
03 Financial Results in Detail Our B/S continues to strengthen and generate even higher recurring profitability Balance sheet Highlights Key Balance Sheet items & ratios | Group Key Balance sheet items 3M24 FY23 9M23 6M23 3M23 • MDBRS highlighted NBG’s B/S strength as key reason for the upgrade Tota
Slide 17: CET1 continues to rise steadily, up +80bps in 1Q24
03 Financial Results in Detail CET1 continues to rise steadily, up +80bps in 1Q24 1Q24 capital movement1 21.3% CAD 20.2% +c1.0% 0.0% -c0.2% CET1 17.8% 18.6% 4Q23 1Q24 PΑΤ (incl. DTC amortization) RWAs Other 1Q24 RWAs €37.7b €37.2b 1 Including period PAT and dividend accrual 17
Slide 18: Exceptionally strong B/S is a unique comparative advantage
03 Financial Results in Detail Exceptionally strong B/S is a unique comparative advantage Group Assets1 (€ b) Group Liabilities1 (€ b) Cash & Interbank 1.7 reserves 8.3 Excess liquidity at €9.1b, post full repayment of TLTRO in 1Q24 Interbank 2.5 Securities² 17.5 Securities portfolio +€2.3b yoy HTC
Slide 19: Group operating profit +8% qoq, at €0.5b
03 Financial Results in Detail Group operating profit +8% qoq, at €0.5b Group COP (€ m) Group operating profit (€ m) +35% yoy +38% yoy 499 +8% qoq 463 439 369 +13 30 60 +108 +9 -6 -4 -0 Non core income 50 318 CoR at 55bps in 1Q24 vs 70bps in 1Q23 Core PPI 499 494 +29% yoy Core PPI 383 1Q23 ΔNII ΔFee
Slide 20: Cost of funding and the negative carry on hedging partially absorbed by loan volume
03 Financial Results in Detail Cost of funding and the negative carry on hedging partially absorbed by loan volume NII Group NII (€ m), Group NIM (bps) Domestic NII breakdown (€ m) -11bps qoq 322 337 326 297 NIM¹ (Group) 260 396 392 -4bps 474 529 563 594 578 378 qoq 336 3M Euribor (avg) 264 623 606
Slide 21: Retail disbursements gather pace; corporate disbursements recover in April
03 Financial Results in Detail Retail disbursements gather pace; corporate disbursements recover in April with a solid pipeline Group Performing loan evolution (€ b) Loan disbursements¹ (€ b) +€1.1b Group 29.1 30.2 +4% yoy 1.6 1.6 +€0.1b Int’l +4% yoy 28.6 +€1.0b Greece 27.6 +4% yoy 2.6 +€1.3b 18.1
Slide 22: Healthy lending spread normalization in line with our guidance
03 Financial Results in Detail Healthy lending spread normalization in line with our guidance Greek PE lending spreads¹ (bps) NPE NII | % Total Performing 269 260 234 229 224 Dom. NPE NII³ 3M Euribor /Dom. NII % 4.4% (avg) 264 336 378 396 392 3.5% 1.2% 0.6% Consumer² FY21 FY22 FY23 1Q24 680 649 630
Slide 23: Deposits +€0.8b yoy, lower qoq affected by seasonality
03 Financial Results in Detail Deposits +€0.8b yoy, lower qoq affected mostly by seasonality and corporate cash management Group deposits evolution (€ b) Greek deposit spreads¹ (bps) Group 55.2 54.8 57.1 55.6 +€0.8b yoy Demand Average savings 373 390 386 balance c€4k Int’l 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 331 260 55
Slide 24: First Greek Bank to repay TLTRO while net cash rises further to €9b
03 Financial Results in Detail First Greek Bank to repay TLTRO while net cash rises further to €9b 396 TLTRO, Cash & reserves, Net Interbank (€ b) NBG Funding Cost (bps) 378 392 3M Euribor (avg) 336 NBG is a net lender in the interbank market 8.0 9.1 264 9.9 178 9.0 8.3 TLTRO TLTRO fully repaid 66 7
Slide 25: Domestic fees +15% yoy, driven by double digit growth across retail products
03 Financial Results in Detail Domestic fees +15% yoy, driven by double digit growth across retail products Group fees (€ m) Domestic retail fees (€ m) Fees/Assets 45bps 54bps ΥοΥ ΥοΥ 53 +12% 100 +15% 47 87 4 9 +11% 12 3 Deposits 8 5 13 +11% 32 Payments 11 International 31 Driven by increased 8 11 +
Slide 26: Cost discipline continues; recurring expenses up by +3% with C:CI at 30%
03 Financial Results in Detail Cost discipline continues; recurring expenses up by +3% with C:CI at 30% Group C:CI (%) Group headcount¹ (#k) Optimization supported by digital strategy 19.8 implementation Cost/ core income % 34.4 31.9 29.9 -4.5pps yoy 7.8 6.6 at Bank level Personnel cost/ 10.8 core i
Slide 27: Organic formation non-significant in 1Q24, well inside our FY24 expectations
03 Financial Results in Detail Organic formation non-significant in 1Q24, well inside our FY24 expectations Domestic NPE stock per category | 1Q24 (€ b) NPE balance change (€ b, Bank) o/w: €0.3b or c40% <30dpd 0.9 0.2 0.2 o/w: €0.1b or NPE inflows (+) 0.1 0.1 0.1 c50% <30dpd 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Slide 28: NPE ratio at 3.7%, coverage at 86%
03 Financial Results in Detail NPE ratio at 3.7%, coverage at 86% NPE ratios and coverage | 1Q24 Domestic forborne stock (€ b) | 1Q24 Collateral coverage1 74% 66% 70% FNPEs <30 dpd 0.4 NPE ratio 5.1% FPEs 1.2 3.7% 3.7% €1.8b FNPEs 31-90dpd 3.1% 0.1 NPE coverage2 FNPEs >90dpd 75% 0.1 85% 86% 92% Reta
Slide 29: Sector leading coverage levels across stages
03 Financial Results in Detail Sector leading coverage levels across stages Group gross loan stage evolution (€ b) Group S2 ratio and coverage (%) Group S3 ratio and coverage (%) Δ yoy Stage 3 1.8 1.3 1.3 13.6% 1.3 -0.5 o/w: €1.2b FPEs €1.3b SICR 10.7% €0.5b +30dpd 9.3% Stage 2 4.4 8.9% Ratio 3.5 3.
Slide 30: ESG Update
04 ESG Update 30
Slide 31: Net-zero targets underpinned by our business and value-creation strategy
04 ESG Update Net-zero targets underpinned by our business and value-creation strategy C&E strategic themes and recent highlights Other Lead the market in sustainable energy financing Corporate financing to RES producers by project type Hydro 14% • Leading franchise in Greece for RES large projects
Slide 32: Ambitious emissions targets substantiate our net zero commitment
04 ESG Update Ambitious emissions targets substantiate our net zero commitment NBG is the first Greek systemic bank to join PCAF and first to join the NZBA with declared emissions reduction targets Sector/ Scopes Unit of Reference Scenario / 2022 Baseline 2030 2030 2050 Portfolio Covered Measurement
Slide 33: Transformation Program (TP) Update
05 Transformation Program (TP) Update 33
Slide 34: Our TP is a competitive edge, supporting the rapid achievement of change
05 Transformation Program Update Our TP is a competitive edge, supporting the rapid achievement of change BEST BANK FOR OUR CLIENTS BEST BANK FOR OUR CLIENTS ESG (Corporate) (Retail) • Migration of all clients to new Corporate • Roll-out modern operating model for individuals, • Further embed C&E co
Slide 35: We are widely recognised for impressive results in our digital transformation
05 Transformation Program Update We are widely recognised for impressive results in our digital transformation CROSS- ONBOARD ENGAGE SELL Mobile app downloads (m) Digital active users (m) Digital cumulative sales¹ (m) 4.5 4.3 Active users 12M 3.6 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.5 1.3 2.1 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 A
Slide 36: BP 2024-26 and Guidance
06 BP 2024-26 and Guidance 36
Slide 37: Targeting >13% core RoTE for 2026 and >500bps of 3-year organic capital generation
06 BP 2024-26 and Guidance Targeting >13% core RoTE for 2026 and >500bps of 3-year organic capital generation Guidance Financial performance metrics Actual Core income 2024-2026 resilience despite P&L KPIs 1Q24 FY24E FY26E record high levels Net Interest Margin (bps) 326 <290 <270 Cost to Core Incom
Slide 38: Core PAT in excess of €1.2b in 2026 despite rate normalization
06 BP 2024-26 and Guidance Core PAT in excess of €1.2b in 2026 despite rate normalization Core PAT evolution (€b) Key drivers Net Interest Income (-) low (+) high (+) low (-) mid CAGR sds sds sds sds • Healthy credit expansion throughout the period, structural hedges in place and fixed rate assets m
Slide 39: Loan CAGR of c7% driven by Corporates
06 BP 2024-26 and Guidance Loan CAGR of c7% driven by Corporates; Retail to support growth from 2025 onwards c9% CAGR c2% CAGR Corporate balances Retail balances c5% c8% c4% Large Mortgages Corporates c5% c10% SMEs Consumer loans 0% Shipping SBL FY23 FY26 FY23 FY26 • Maintain leadership in energy tr
Slide 40: Further increase in already strong capital buffers, bodes well for distributions
06 BP 2024-26 and Guidance Further increase in already strong capital buffers, bodes well for distributions Group CET1 ratio evolution (%) Key drivers • Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio: Organic capital generation >500bps Driven by sustainable profitability, comfortably accommodating credit >900bps
Slide 41: Investment in IT infrastructure and technology; CBS replacement completion in 2025
06 BP 2024-26 and Guidance Investment in IT infrastructure and technology; CBS replacement completion in 2025 NBG IT strategy is based on 5 strategic pillars 1 Offer the best digital banking experience to our customers • Provide the best digital experience for our retail customer base as well as SB,
Slide 42: Appendix
07 Appendix 42
Slide 43: Balance Sheet & P&L
07 Appendix Balance Sheet & P&L Balance Sheet | Group P&L | Group €m 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 2Q23 1Q23 €m 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 2Q23 1Q23 Cash & Reserves 8,307 9,015 8,400 7,551 9,950 NII 605 623 588 554 497 Interbank placements 2,527 2,792 2,330 2,735 2,731 Net fee & commission income 100 109 95 92 87 Securities 1
Slide 44: Geographical segment P&L: Greece & International
07 Appendix Geographical segment P&L: Greece & International Greece International €m 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 2Q23 1Q23 €m 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 2Q23 1Q23 NII 578 594 563 529 474 NII 28 29 25 25 23 Net fee & commission Net fee & commission 96 106 92 87 83 4 4 4 5 3 income income Core Income 673 700 654 616 557 Core
Slide 45: ESMA Alternative Performance Measures (APMs), financial data and ratios definitions
07 Appendix ESMA Alternative Performance Measures (APMs), financial data and ratios definitions The 1Q24 Financial Results Presentation contains financial information and measures as derived from the Group financial statements for the period ended 31 March 2024 and for the year ended 31 December 202
Slide 46: Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures
07 Appendix Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures Name Abbreviation Definition Assets held for sale -- Non-current assets held for sale Cash and Reserves -- Cash and balances with central banks Combined Buffer Requirement CBR Total CET1 capital required to me
Slide 47: Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures
07 Appendix Definition of financial data, ratios used and alternative performance measures Loan / Lending Yield -- Annualized (or annual) loan interest income over gross performing exposures Loans-to-Deposits Ratio L:D ratio Loans and advances to customers over due to customers at year/period end, e
Slide 48: Important Notice – Disclaimer
07 Appendix Important Notice – Disclaimer The information, statements and opinions set out in the 1Q24 Results Presentation and Performance Measures (“APMs”), definition of financial data and ratios used” and may not accompanying discussion (the “Presentation”) have been provided by National Bank of
Slide 49: Important Notice – Forward Looking Information
07 Appendix Important Notice – Forward Looking Information The Presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to management’s intent, Forward Looking Statements are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not belief or current expectations with respect to, inter alia, the Bank’s b
Slide 50: Contact details
Contact details Christos Christodoulou Group CFO Greg Papagrigoris Group Head of IR +30 210 334 3051 +30 210 334 2310 cchristodoulou@nbg.gr papagrigoris.gr@nbg.gr Maria Kanellopoulou Panagiotis Alevras +30 210 334 1537 +30 210 334 3031 mkanellopoulou@nbg.gr Alevras.Pan@nbg.gr Marios Deportou Eleni A
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