Warrior Met Coal, Inc. · NYSE:HCC
Warrior Met Coal — Corporate Update (February 2025)
25 slides from Warrior Met Coal's corporate update, Feb 21, 2025
Slide 1: Blue Creek Project Update
Exhibit 99.2 BLUE CREEK PROJECT UPDATE Delivering an Unparalleled Value Proposition | February 2025
Slide 2: Forward-looking Statements
Forward-looking Statements This presentation contains, and the Company’s officers and representatives may from time to time make, forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended
Slide 3: Update of Improved Transformational Blue Creek Project
Update of Improved Transformational Blue Creek Project
Slide 4: We Set Out to Deliver a Truly Transformational Project
We Set Out to Deliver a Truly Transformational Project, and Along the Way We Made it Even Better . . . More Volume at No Incremental Cost Attractive Returns Over Life of the Project (2) Nameplate Capacity increased 25% from our initial Significant Expected Improvement in Revenue , (1,2) (1,2) estima
Slide 5: Significantly Higher Expected Economics
…with Significantly Higher Expected Economics to Bolster an Already Compelling Investment Thesis (1,2) (1,2) NPV IRR First 10 years production average $5.4B 35% (1) At 1/1/25; Excludes $717M of Real, after tax Significant Improvement 6.0 Mst (1,2) (1,2) previously spent capex in IRR , NPV , and (4)
Slide 6: Optimized Plan Unlocks Significant Additional Value
Optimized Plan Unlocks Significant Additional Value With Further Upside at Little Incremental Cost Full Nameplate Capacity Optimizing Blue Creek Growth Run rate production volume incorporates the best practices and technologies implemented in our existing mines over the last several years such as: •
Slide 7: Project Update: On Time and On Budget
Project Update: On Time and On Budget Total capital expenditure estimate reiterated in a range of: $995M to $1.075B Project to date capital expenditure spend as of 12/31/24: $717M ü Warrior proactively expanded the original project scope by $130M in 2023 ü Dramatically improves transportation plan —
Slide 8: Hitting All Major Project Milestones On Schedule
Hitting All Major Project Milestones On Schedule No Middle Middle Later Q3 Q3 Q4 Q2 of of than 2024 2025 2025 2026 2025 2025 Q2 2026 Source: Company information 8
Slide 9: Adding a Premium Quality Mine at the Bottom of the Cost Curve
Adding a Premium Quality Mine at the Bottom of the Cost Curve to an Already Premier Asset Base… (2) 2028 Projected Seaborne Hard Coking Coal Cost Curve st nd rd th 1 Quartile 2 Quartile 3 Quartile 4 Quartile Blue Creek Mine 7 Mine 4 Blue Creek dramatically improves Warrior’s already exceptional posi
Slide 10: Drives Higher Volume, Greater Access to Growth Markets, Improved Profitability
...Drives Higher Volume, Greater Access to Growth Markets, and Improved Profitability Through the Cycle Shift to Higher Growth Markets Increase in Volume Higher Margins ü With the addition of Blue Creek, we ü Expect shipments to skew more ü Warrior’s mix shift is expected to (1) expect to deliver tr
Slide 11: Blue Creek is Poised to Play a Vital Role in the Seaborne Market
Blue Creek is Poised to Play a Vital Role in the Seaborne Market for Decades to Come
Slide 12: Megatrends Continue Driving Long-Term Steel Demand Growth
Megatrends Continue Driving Long-Term Steel Demand Growth Global steel demand expected to grow over the long-term, fueled by demand for infrastructure growth from emerging countries, primarily India and Southeast Asia, and to support the energy transition, which is steel intensive (1) Global Steel D
Slide 13: Seaborne Coking Coal Demand Expected to Exceed Supply
Global Seaborne Coking Coal Demand Expected to Exceed Seaborne Coking Coal Supply in the Near-Term… (1) Global Seaborne Coking Coal Demand Outlook (Mmt ) Global Surplus/(Deficit) of Seaborne Coking (1) Coal (Mmt ) 400 Expected Long-Term Structural India’s Growth Driven 30 Deficit is Due to Underinve
Slide 14: Rapidly Growing Indian Steel Production Stressing Seaborne Coal Markets
…with Rapidly Growing Indian Steel Production Driving the Stress on the Seaborne Steelmaking Coal Markets India represents the world’s fastest growing steel producer while also being saddled with an absence of domestic steelmaking coal reserves (1) ü High-quality new Indian steelmaking capacity is e
Slide 15: Blue Creek's Premium Quality Expected to Command Premium Margins
Blue Creek’s Premium Quality Expected to Command Premium Margins (1) 5 Year Historical Price Trends (per Mt ) The historical $800 5-year average (1) 5 -Year Average (Nominal $/Mt ) $700 prices for both Aus Benchmark $ 252 (1) US HVA $ 238 indices are $600 (1) above $225/Mt $500 • As demand exceeds s
Slide 16: A Leader in Capital Returns Poised for Step-Change in Free Cash Flow
A Leader in Capital Returns to Stockholders Poised for a Major Step- Change in Free Cash Flow
Slide 17: Strong Record of Returning Cash to Stockholders
Strong Record of Returning Cash to Stockholders Approaching the Next Phase of Significant Excess Cash Flow A Major Shift from Investment to With a Strong Record of Plus a Proven Track Record of Incremental Free Cash Flow Returning Cash to Stockholders Returns Generation from Blue Creek (1) Blue Cree
Slide 18: Illustrative Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow Impacts if Online in 2024
(1) (1) Illustrative Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow Impacts if Online in 2024 Show Exceptional Earnings Power of Project *,(1,2) *,(1,2) Incremental Adj. EBITDA and Adj. EBITDA Margin Incremental Free Cash Flow (FCF) and FCF Conversion (3) 87% 86% 87% 86% 58% 60% 61% 63% 58% 88% 87% 50% 57% 87%
Slide 19: Appendix/Reconciliations
Appendix/Reconciliations
Slide 20: Definitions and Footnotes
Definitions and Footnotes Adj. EBITDA means EBITDA adjusted for certain one-time items as HVA means high volatile type A coking coal. shown in the reconciliations at the end of this presentation. IRR means internal rate of return. Adj. EBITDA Margin is defined as Adjusted EBITDA divided by total rev
Slide 21: Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to U.S. GAAP
Appendix Non-GAAP Financial Measures (1) Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Amounts Reported Under U.S. GAAP For the year ended December 31, (in thousands) 2024 Net income $ 250,603 Interest income, net (28,776) Income tax expense 33,063 Depreciation and depletion 153,982 Asset retirement obligati
Slide 22: Reconciliation of Incremental Free Cash Flow and Conversion
Appendix Non-GAAP Financial Measures (1) (1) Reconciliation of Incremental Free Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow Conversion to Amounts Reported Under U.S. GAAP For the year ended December 31, (in thousands) 2024 Net cash provided by operating activities $ 367,448 Purchases of property, plant and equipme
Slide 23: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Appendix Non-GAAP Financial Measures We have not reconciled our forward-looking adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow or cash cost of sales to GAAP net income, net income margin, cash flow from operations or cost of sales, respectively, due to the uncertainty and potential variabil
Slide 24: Appendix Disclaimer
Appendix Disclaimer “The information referenced herein contains the copyrighted property of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. or its affiliates (“Dow Jones”) and represent data, research, opinions or viewpoints published by Dow Jones, and are not representations of fact. The Dow Jones materials speak as of
Slide 25: Source: Company information
Source: Company information