Elia Group SA/NV · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group SA/NV — Technical Presentation (July 2018)
29 slides from Elia Group SA/NV's technical presentation, Jul 9, 2018
Slide 1: Market Response 2018
Market Response 2018 Task Force ISR presentation Brussels, July 9th 2018 1
Slide 2: Table of content
Table of content 1 Goal, scope and planning of the project – Reminder ~10 min 2 Results of the update of the volumes for MR ~25 min 3 Conclusion ~10 min 2
Slide 3: Market Response volume determination is essential to size the volumes of Strategic Reserves
REMINDER Market Response volume determination is essential to size the volumes of Strategic Reserves Market Response corresponds to the response of electricity consumers in periods of tension and high prices in the electricity grid Available resources Needs Variables Demand Reserves • Generation • H
Slide 4: In 2017, a robust methodology was established based on the aggregated curves
REMINDER In 2017, a robust methodology was established based on the aggregated curves, and complemented with a qualitative Q&A to define the details of the activation Residential Tertiary Industrial A Aggregated curves analysis: quantitative approach To provide a robust estimation for the future yea
Slide 5: This methodology was established thanks to a robust and transparent process
REMINDER This methodology was established thanks to a robust and transparent process involving all market parties Key milestone Stakeholders involvement January Brainstorm on the possible methodologies Workshop 1 2017 Benchmark & review of the methodologies Workshop 2 Phase 1: Design Selection of th
Slide 6: Only the quantitative part of the methodology is to be updated every year
As agreed upon with the stakeholders last year, only the quantitative part of the methodology is to be updated every year 1. Thanks to the 2017 process, a robust methodology was agreed upon with consensus from stakeholders. This overall methodology is not to be updated. 2. The quantitative part of t
Slide 7: The update of the methodology in 2018 targets the aggregated curve methodology
The update of the methodology in 2018 targets the aggregated curve methodology and not the qualitative questionnaire Required Activation details inputs of the adequacy Capacity estimation & Number of weekly Maximum activation activation duration assessment EPEX: “it is not to be found in the aggrega
Slide 8: In the aggregated curves of EPEX DAM Belgium, Market Response volumes appear as demand decrease or offer increase
REMINDER In the aggregated curves of EPEX DAM Belgium, Market Response volumes appear as a demand decrease or as an offer increase Market Response volumes valued in the DA market Demand decrease Offer increase • This part can be analyzed directly in the aggregated • Instead of a demand decrease, sup
Slide 9: Table of content
Table of content 1 Goal, scope and planning of the project – Reminder 2 Results of the update of the volumes for MR 3 Conclusion 9
Slide 10: The Market Response Study is based on the exact same methodology as in 2017
The update of the Market Response Study is based on the exact same methodology as the one performed in 2017 The process followed four key steps to come to a pertinent volume of Market Response: The Market Response volumes were first extracted from the aggregated curves of EPEX DAM Extraction of the
Slide 11: Agenda: Results of the volumes for MR
Agenda 2 Results of the update of the volumes for MR A Extraction of the Market Response volumes B Refinement of the dataset C Statistical analysis D Implementation 11
Slide 12: EPEX DAM Belgium provides hourly aggregated curves of purchase and sale orders
A VOLUME EXTRACTION - REMINDER EPEX DAM Belgium provides hourly aggregated curves of the purchase and sale orders EPEX DAM Belgium aggregated curve Price Illustration (€/MWh) • The curves determine the clearing price: at 3000 the intersection of the demand and supply curve. 2500 • From the curves, w
Slide 13: Market Response volumes extracted from aggregated curves; 2018 update added ~9000 hours
A VOLUME EXTRACTION The Market Response volumes were extracted from the aggregated curves. The 2018 update added ~9000 hours to the dataset Market Response study 2017 Update 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Timeframe of 01/01/2014 01/05/2017 17/04/2018 the dataset 00:00 23:00 23:00 This input dataset r
Slide 14: Agenda: Results of the volumes for MR
Agenda 2 Results of the update of the volumes for MR A Extraction of the Market Response volumes B Refinement of the dataset C Statistical analysis D Implementation 14
Slide 15: Dataset refined, excluding 2014 and national strike days
B DATA REFINEMENT The dataset was firstly refined, excluding the year 2014 and the days of national strikes as last year Market Response study 2017 Update 2018 Raw dataset Refined dataset Refined dataset Updated General strike days National holidays Considered as Sundays Considered as Sundays 2014
Slide 16: Agenda: Results of the volumes for MR
Agenda 2 Results of the update of the volumes for MR A Extraction of the Market Response volumes B Refinement of the dataset C Statistical analysis D Implementation 16
Slide 17: Numerous analyses conducted without any strong correlations with volumes
Numerous analyses were conducted to explain the volume patterns, yet without any strong correlations with Market Response volumes The 2017 study started with a statistical analysis of the dataset so as to find specific patterns and focus the analysis on the most pertinent days for the Elia Adequacy
Slide 18: Various correlations computed without satisfying results (1/2)
C STATISTICAL ANALYSIS – Example Various correlations were computed (temperature, price, normal temperature) without any satisfying results: R2 remains very low (1/2) Principle Results – 2017 study Results – 2018 study A regression was conducted • 150€/MWh: R2 = 0.03 • 150€/MWh: R2 = 0.06 Day-Ahead
Slide 19: Various correlations computed without satisfying results (2/2)
C STATISTICAL ANALYSIS – Example Various correlations were computed (temperature, price, normal temperature) without any satisfying results: R2 remains very low (2/2) Principle Results – 2017 study Results – 2018 study The regression was computed • 150€/MWh : R2 = 0.09 • 150€/MWh : R2 = 0.13 Load be
Slide 20: Impact of the same parameters as last year assessed on the new dataset
C STATISTICAL ANALYSIS The impact of the same parameters as last year was assessed on the new dataset to verify the coherence with the analyses conducted last year Analyses conducted: Restriction of the Focus on the load impact of parameters dataset • 3 analyses were conducted to Among the previous
Slide 21: Restriction to pertinent periods: impact in same order as 2017
C STATISTICAL ANALYSIS – Restriction to pertinent periods The impact of the restriction of the dataset to the most relevant hours of the adequacy assessment is in the same order of magnitude for the additional data as it was for the 2017 study Restriction 1: Restriction 2: Restriction 3: Global impa
Slide 22: Categorization coherent with 2017: 691MW for the 150€/MWh threshold
C STATISTICAL ANALYSIS – Restriction to pertinent periods The categorization of the additional data is coherent with the 2017 dataset : we observe an increase of the market response volume to reach 691MW for the 150€/MWh volume threshold Summary of the two categories Category description Comparison
Slide 23: Agenda: Results of the volumes for MR
Agenda 2 Results of the update of the volumes for MR A Extraction of the Market Response volumes B Refinement of the dataset C Statistical analysis D Implementation 23
Slide 24: Extrapolation of the results – Historical volumes evolution
D Extrapolation of the results – Historical volumes evolution Over the last winters, the global volume evolution follows a +4% growth per year from winter 2014/2015 to winter 2016/2017 and +7% per year on the last 4 years Evolution of the volumes of Market Response - Winter Months1) MW +7%/y.2) +4%/
Slide 25: Several extrapolations can be defended
D Extrapolation of the results Several extrapolations can be defended 4% global volume growth 5% global volume growth 7% global volume growth The +4% global market The +5% extrapolation This extrapolation scenario response volume is a more corresponds to the takes into account all the cautious
Slide 26: Total market growth extrapolation varies from +4%/y. to +7%/y.
D Extrapolation of the results Based on the historical growth trends, the total market growth extrapolation growth varies from +4%/y. to +7%/y. Two historical extrapolation factors can be suggested : +4% based on 3 years (14/15 to 16/17) and +7% based on 4 years (14/15 to 17/18). An additional scena
Slide 27: Table of content
Table of content 1 Goal, scope and planning of the project – Reminder 2 Results of the update of the volumes for MR 3 Conclusion 27
Slide 28: Conclusion: quantitative part updated with recent data
Conclusion According to the methodology designed in 2017, the quantitative part (aggregated curve analysis) was updated with recent data 2017 Market response study 2018 Study update A Aggregated curves analysis Raw dataset Refinement: The year 2014 and national strikes days were excluded Verificatio
Slide 29: 691 MW Market Response Volume
Conclusion The update of the study leads to a 691MW Market Response volume and 3 extrapolation scenarios ranging from 4% to 7% total volume growth Output of the 2018 study 3 extrapolation scenarios +4% total market growth 691 MW +5% total market growth Market Response Volume +7% total market growth