ASML Holding NV · EURONEXT:ASML
ASML Holding NV — Deutsche Bank 12th Annual European Technology Conference (September 2008)
20 slides from ASML Holding NV's conference presentation, Sep 19, 2008
Slide 1: Deutsche Bank 12th Annual European Technology Conference
Deutsche Bank 12th Annual European Technology Conference Franki D’Hoore Director European Investor Relations Friday, 19 September 2008
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor "Safe Harbor" Statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed in this document may include forward-looking statements, including statements made about our outlook, realization of backlog, IC unit demand, financial results, average sales pric
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda z HOW IS THE OVERALL MARKET DEVELOPING SHORT-TERM? z IS THE CURRENT MARKET ENVIRONMENT COMPROMISING ASML SECULAR GROWTH MODEL? Slide 3
Slide 4: Current market environment
Current market environment z No change from last quarter guidance z Global macro-economic uncertainty drives minimum CAPEX build z Weakness in capacity order bookings from all customers, all sectors, all regions z Utilization still good in Logic, but customers with no mid term demand visibility inve
Slide 5: Leadership in immersion
Leadership in immersion z Shipped 30 immersion systems in Q1 + Q2 z Booked 20 immersion systems in Q2 z Backlog at midyear includes 27 immersion systems z Reiterate Q3 bookings guidance - we expect immersion bookings in the third quarter to be similar to that of the second quarter, but cannot easily
Slide 6: Overall IC unit growth is robust at 10% year to year
Overall IC unit growth is robust @ 10% Year to Year IC unit sales compared with year before 160 14% 2007 Cumm 2008 Cumm 140 12% Growth YTD 120 YoY-3mma 10% 100 Growth [%] Units [B] 8% 80 6% 60 4% 40 20 2% 0 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Source: ASML Last data point: June 2008 Slide 6
Slide 7: Market researchers reduce their 2008 IC revenue forecasts down to 6% on average
Market researchers reduce their 2008 IC revenue forecasts down to 6% on average 2008 Semiconductor revenue growth forecast over time 25% Dataquest (June 08) 20% IC Insights (June 08) iSuppli (April 08) 15% Semico (June 08) SIA (Jun 08) VLSI Research (Mar 08) 10% WSTS (June 08) ] s[% ca F th rw o G u
Slide 8: DRAM
DRAM z Operating margins of leading DRAM unit sales compared with year before DRAM makers recovering (but for 14 50% most companies still negative) 12 45% through aggressive shrink and 40% 10 35% 200 mm retirement 30% Growth [%] Units [B] 8 25% z Weakening end-user demand 6 20% could delay expected
Slide 9: DRAM spot and contract prices moving sideways since beginning of 2008
DRAM spot and contract prices moving side ways since beginning of 2008 Main DRAM spot & contract prices (01/06 - 2008YTD) 8 512Mb DDR2 667 SPOT ASP 512Mb DDR2 667 CONTRACT ASP 7 1Gb DDR2 667 SPOT ASP 1Gb DDR2 667 CONTRACT ASP 6 Chip ASP [$US] 5 300 mm fully- 300 mm fully- loaded-costs for loaded cos
Slide 10: DRAM capacity retirement accelerated in 2008 due to persistent price pressure
DRAM 200 mm capacity retirement accelerated in 2008 due to persistent price pressure Expected DRAM 200 mm capacity retirement (Q1/08-Q4/09) 20 Capacity [200 mm equiv. KWSM] 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 -140 -160 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Source: ASML estimates Slide 10
Slide 11: NAND
NAND z NAND ASPs keep declining NAND unit sales compared with year before due to lower than forecasted 3.0 60% end-user demand 2.5 50% z However YTD unit growth still above 40% 2.0 40% Growth [%] Units [B] 1.5 30% z Current chip production costs above market prices resulting in 1.0 20% significant l
Slide 12: Logic + MPU
Logic + MPU z Logic revenues and profitability is Logic unit sales compared with year before very strong 45 14% 40 z MPU sales recovering from 35 12% seasonal low 30 10% Growth [%] Units [B] 25 8% z Investments expected to recover 20 6% in 2009, especially for 45 nm, 15 4% driven by record fab utili
Slide 13: Agenda
Agenda z HOW IS THE OVERALL MARKET DEVELOPING SHORT-TERM? z IS THE CURRENT MARKET ENVIRONMENT COMPROMISING ASML SECULAR GROWTH MODEL? Slide 13
Slide 14: Litho Market Secular Growth Drives ASML's Growth
Litho Market Secular Growth Drives ASML’s Growth The chip industry ASML's business driven by is growing chip unit sales Chips become more complex Average number of layers per wafer increases with IC complexity Chip processing becomes Technology leadership brings more challenging increased market sha
Slide 15: The secular growth model: market share growth
The secular growth Model: Market share growth Success in Japan 60% Immersion 50% ASML Market Share (revenue) ArF in volume TWINSCAN 40% 30% PAS 5500 Scanner 20% 10% 0% ’84 ’86 ’88 ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 Source: ASML, SEMI Slide 15
Slide 16: 2008-2009: Shrink opportunities for all sectors
2008- 2009 : Shrink opportunities for all sectors 200 Resolution, “Shrink” (nm) Lo gic AT:850 100 DR NA AM 80 ND AT:1200 XT:1400 Immersion 60 ASML Product XT:1700i Double Patterning Introduction 40 XT:1900i DPT EUV EUV 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: ASML May 2008 Slide 16
Slide 17: Market share development
Market share development z A natural “catch up” by our competition on immersion for 55 nm / 45 nm nodes after 1 or 2 years of virtual absence z ASML leadership still intact for 2008/2009 in tool throughput, overlay and NA, delivering to customers z A cost effective solution for 5X nm / 4X nm nodes z
Slide 18: ASML Vision and Strategy Articulation
ASML Vision and Strategy Articulation ● ASML currently operates within a lithography market which has a potential to double within the next 5 to 10 years. There is significant growth potential for us if we execute ● Strategy: "Over-execute" in all areas of our business ● Invest more in R&D to (1) st
Slide 19: Conclusions
Conclusions z Guidance for lower revenue 2008 (may see - 20% versus 2007) unchanged z Uncertainty as to when Litho Capacity build orders would materialize, but 2009 strong immersion growth from NAND 4x nm, DRAM 5x nm and Logic 4x and 3x nm will sustain ASML revenue robustness z ASML to maintain tech
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