Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc · NYSE:AHT
Ashford Hospitality Trust — ALIS 2013
31 slides from Ashford Hospitality Trust's conference presentation, Jan 23, 2013
Slide 1: Ashford Hospitality Trust - ALIS January 2013
ZA ASHEORD WY HOSPITALITY TRUST ALIS - January 2013
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor 2 In keeping with the SEC’s “Safe Harbor” guidelines, certain statements made during this presentation could be considered forward-looking and subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause results to differ materially from those projected. When we use the words “will likely
Slide 3: Economic & Industry Overview
Economic & Industry Overview 3
Slide 4: Real GDP Growth
Real GDP Growth % 4 -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 2011 Real GDP Growth: 1.8% Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce: BEA & Historical Statistics of the United States: - Cambridge
Slide 5: Hotel Demand Driven by Economy
Hotel Demand Driven by Economy 5 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Real GDP Growth Hotel Demand Growth R-squared = 0.59 Source: Smith Travel Research & U.S. Dept. of Commerce: BEA
Slide 6: U.S. Demand Will Outpace Supply
U.S. Demand Will Outpace Supply 6 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Yea r- o v e r- Year % G ro wt h Supply Growth Demand Growth PKF Forecast Source: Smith Travel Research & PKF
Slide 7: RevPAR Forecast - PKF
RevPAR Forecast - PKF 7 7.7% 6.1% -2.0% -16.7% 5.4% 8.2% 6.8% 6.2% 8.8% 6.5% 3.5% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Historical RevPAR Growth Forecasted RevPAR Growth 4-Year RevPAR Growth CAGR: 6.2% Source: Smith Travel Researc
Slide 8: Potential Industry EBITDA Growth Rates (2-year)
Potential Industry EBITDA Growth Rates 8 − With strong potential RevPAR gains, those companies with reasonable flow-throughs could experience significant EBITDA growth − PKF estimates 2-year cumulative EBITDA growth of about 26%* *Based on PKF RevPAR/ADR/Occupancy projections and EBITDA growth resul
Slide 9: Potential Industry EBITDA Growth Rates (4-year)
Potential Industry EBITDA Growth Rates 9 − With strong potential RevPAR gains, those companies with reasonable flow-throughs could experience significant EBITDA growth − PKF estimates 4-year cumulative EBITDA growth of about 48%* CUMULATIVE 4-YEAR EBITDA GROWTH COMPOUNDED 4-YEAR REVPAR GROWTH RATE 5
Slide 10: Company Highlights
Company Highlights 10
Slide 11: Company Snapshots
Company Snapshots 11 Portfolio Statistics* Total Enterprise Value $4.2 B Total Gross Assets $4.9 B Peer Comparison 2nd Largest # of Hotels 123 # of Owned Rooms 25,767 # of Property Managers 5 $ ADR $135.74 $ RevPAR $101.51 RevPAR Growth % 5.1% Financial Statistics* Recent Share Price $11.16 (1/16/13
Slide 12: Portfolio Overview
Portfolio Overview 12 1% 59% 3% 37% Chain Scale* Luxury Upper Upscale Upper Midscale Upscale 31% 3% 5% 53% 4% 3% Brand Family* Hilton Hyatt Starwood Marriott IHG Independent 24% 4% 23% 49% Segmentation Group Contract Leisure Transient Corporate Transient *as a % of 3Q 2012 TTM EBITDA 73% 17% 10% MSA
Slide 13: Capital Hilton – Washington D.C.
Capital Hilton – Washington D.C. 13
Slide 14: Crystal Gateway Marriott
Crystal Gateway Marriott ZA ASH YYZ nos
Slide 15: Seattle Marriott Waterfront
Seattle Marriott Waterfront 15
Slide 16: Courtyard Philadelphia Downtown
Courtyard Philadelphia Downtown 16
Slide 17: Hilton Boston Back Bay
Hilton Boston Back Bay 17
Slide 18: Asset Management Outperformance
Asset Management Outperformance 18 39% 8% 49% 41% 50% 52% 51% 37% 53% 104% 63% 66% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD Q3 2012 Peer Avg AHT − Ashford consistently beats peers in hotel EBITDA flow throughs Peers include: BEE, CHSP, DRH, FCH, HST, HT, LHO, PEB, SHO Source: Compan
Slide 19: Attractive Dividend Yield & Coverage
5.6% 4.9% 4.7% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.0% 2.9% 2.2% 2.0% - - - 1.7x 1.7x 1.5x 1.8x 2.3x 3.6x 2.2x 3.2x 2.4x 3.9x 2.4x - 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% CLDT INN HT CHSP RLJ AHT DRH LHO Peer Avg HST PEB BEE FCH SHO A F F O C ove ra g e Divid e n d Yiel d Divi
Slide 20: Compelling Valuation
Compelling Valuation 20 − Ashford is currently trading below the peer average on an EBITDA multiple and price per key basis Source: Company filings, SNL, Street research & First Call (as of 1/16/13) $425 $399 $363 $278 $275 $266 $245 $243 $242 $165 $160 $148 $145 $136 0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x
Slide 21: Total Shareholder Return
Total Shareholder Return 21 43% 26% 99% 834% 151% 26% 49% 75% 93% 21% -2% 41% 163% -20% -44% -28% -19% 24% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 900% 1-Yr 2-Yr 3-Yr 4-Yr 5-Yr 6-Yr 7-Yr 8-Yr 9-yr AHT Peer Avg. Peer average includes: BEE, CHSP, CLDT, DRH, FCH, HST, HT, INN, LHO, PEB, RLJ, S
Slide 22: Most Highly-Aligned Management
Most Highly-Aligned Management 22 21% 15% 6% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% AHT HT INN CLDT FCH RLJ HST CHSP SHO DRH BEE LHO PEB Insider ownership % Source: Company Filings
Slide 23: Low Risk on Balance Sheet
Low Risk on Balance Sheet 23 All debt is non- recourse Upcoming maturities have solid debt yields Highest leveraged loans have longest time to maturity • TTM September 2012 weighted average debt yields on maturities through 2014 are 12.6% • Excess cash flow • Undrawn $165m credit facility • $146m of
Slide 24: Highland Hospitality Update
Highland Hospitality Update 24
Slide 25: Highland EBITDA Flows
Highland EBITDA Flows 25 32.7% 83.0% 95.9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% One Year Pre-Takeover One Year Post-Takeover TTM Q3 2012
Slide 26: Highland NOI Exceeds Underwriting
Highland NOI Exceeds Underwriting 26 $79 $82 $86 $88 $91 $93 $95 $93 $70 $75 $80 $85 $90 $95 $100 Mar 2011 TTM Jun 2011 TTM Sep 2011 TTM Dec 2011 TTM Mar 2012 TTM Jun 2012 TTM Sep 2012 TTM U/W for Sep 2012 NO I $ ( in m il li o n s)
Slide 27: The Melrose – Washington D.C. Before and After
The Melrose – Washington D.C. 27 BEFORE AFTER
Slide 28: The Churchill – Washington D.C. Before and After
The Churchill – Washington D.C. 28 BEFORE AFTER
Slide 29: Next Steps for Ashford
Next Steps for Ashford 29
Slide 30: Next Steps for Ashford
Next Steps for Ashford 30 • Focus on growing Highland revenues • Growing EBITDA is best way to create shareholder value Intense operational focus to grow EBITDA • Build cash balance in preparation for next downturn Grow cash balance • Must be long-term accretive to stock price • Franchised, full-ser
Slide 31: Ashford Hospitality Trust
ZA ASHEORD WY HOSPITALITY TRUST ALIS - January 2013