Yara International Asa · OSL:YAR

Yara International Asa — Arctic Securities Market Update (May 2025)

12 slides from Yara International Asa's conference presentation, May 19, 2025

  1. Slide 1: Market update

    Market update Dag Tore Mo Head of Market Intelligence Arctic Securities Oslo, 19 May 2025

  2. Slide 2: Urea prices fob Egypt – latest sale at USD390/t

    Urea prices fob Egypt – latest sale at USD390/t 500 450 400 USD/ton 350 300 250 200 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Urea inland proxy China Urea fob Egypt(Europe)

  3. Slide 3: European natural gas (TTF) – less extreme

    3 European natural gas (TTF ) – less extreme

  4. Slide 4: Ammonia to urea upgrading margin – fob Arab Gulf

    Ammonia to urea upgrading margin – fob Arab Gulf USD/mt 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 -50 Urea – ( 0.6 * Ammonia +15 ) -100

  5. Slide 5: Peak of urea capacity additions is behind us

    Peak of urea capacity additions is behind us Global urea capacity additions ex. China 1,2 (mt) India Russia Iran Algeria USA Nigeria Australia Others Uncertain completion year for several projects 6.7 between 2026 and 2029 with differing views from 5.9 publications. 5.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.1 1.9%

  6. Slide 6: Urea export from China – nothing

    Urea export from China – nothing 4500 4000 2023 2024 2025 3500 3000 2500 kt product 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Product code: 31021000

  7. Slide 7: Urea sales up in India, production and imports down

    7 Urea sales up in India, production and imports down– strong decline in inventories this season Kt urea, accumulated (production + imports - sales) 3000 2023/24 2000 1000 2022/23 0 -1000 2021/22 -2000 -3000 -4000 2024/25 -5000 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

  8. Slide 8: US net nitrogen imports

    US net nitrogen imports 22/23 23/24 24/25 3500 3000 2500 2000 000 metric tons N 1500 1000 500 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun -500 TFI product selection

  9. Slide 9: US nitrogen market extremely tight

    US nitrogen market extremely tight 9

  10. Slide 10: Cereal index/urea index – improving some in March despite lower grain prices

    Cereal index/urea index – improving some in March despite lower grain prices, as urea dropped Index 1.4 Urea more affordable 1.3 (increased application rate) 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Urea less affordable 0.5 (reduced application rate) 0.4 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-

  11. Slide 11: Grain inventories outside China, forecast is a modest increase for 2025/26

    Grain inventories outside China, forecast is a modest increase for 2025/26 (July–June) Grain stocks – excluding China Days of consumption in stock – excluding China Mill. tonnes Days 360 66 64 350 May 62 340 60 330 58 Apr 56 320 54 310 52 300 50 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25E 26F 16 17 18 19 20 21 2

  12. Slide 12: Both P and K prices stronger, P much tighter than K

    Both P and K prices stronger, P much tighter than K Comments • P markets very tight, prices at a historic high level. Morocco is and will be the key to supply growth for 2025, finally ramping up production from new production lines. Not sufficient to keep prices stable, market still tightening. • Ro

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